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Posted

Been screwing around more and more with AI agents. Basic training classes that mainly demonstrate the potential. I know we mostly hear hype regarding them but they're the real deal. As soon as more major software packages and email systems embrace them, corp America is going be transformed. Given that I've never known a VP or CFO to not want to lower headcount/cost, they will quickly grab onto tech that will increase productivity per worker.

If someone's main role is working with transactions and/or dealing with customers via email/chat, start learning a new skill ASAP.

Posted

I asked ChatGPT how much they were losing...

image.png.3a1a9d1b2a858b177605a0793d374bbb.png

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So, how long is this sustainable?   

How long before it becomes 100% subscription or it turns into google and the answers are designed to drive you to some advertiser that pays the most?

 

 

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Posted

OpenAI could easily start to price their non-base ChatGPT models at a per transaction (token) level. that's how it works with agents. You can set it up to auto-refill your balance, along with a monthly maximums.

Heavy ChatGPT users will complain. However if their ChatGPT usage is creating a work product, tough that their workforce will cost them more than $200 per month. 

not to mention that OpenAI can keep going back to the private markets to raise more funds. I imagine that we won't see OpenAI come close to an IPO until they're out of their heavy growth phases. The IPO era is over but that's a separate topic.

Posted
3 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

I asked ChatGPT how much they were losing...

image.png.3a1a9d1b2a858b177605a0793d374bbb.png

image.png.f193ce9642d6a56fc1e03b69b87e8cf8.png

 

So, how long is this sustainable?   

How long before it becomes 100% subscription or it turns into google and the answers are designed to drive you to some advertiser that pays the most?

 

 

This is sustainable so long as we allow grifters to dominate our economy.  This is nothing new, as we've been gobbling up shitty tech for decades now with little to show for it outside of PE jags laughing all the way to the bank.   Profitability?  What does that have to do with anything anymore?

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Posted

I don't know if Mechanize is just an ambitious startup looking to make splashy headlines and get VC investments, or if there is actually some credibility to their goal of automating all jobs. Even if they fail, the idea of this happening has always been there and someone will always be trying to accomplish this unless society has the proper guardrails in place. Currently, the leadership of our country and China puts that in doubt.

Brisket loves a doom and gloom scenario but I think he's absolutely right to be concerned about this. We can't simply ignore it or write it off as science fiction, then cry about it in 10, 20, 50 years when it actually happens. If a company in the U.S. (or anywhere) has a stated goal of replacing all human jobs, that is obviously quite problematic for the future of the human race. Even if they are only 75% successful in the end, that's an incredibly different world to live in and probably not for the better.

I think with all disruptive technologies, there should be a type of hurricane forecast model that shows the most likely path as well as the extremes on either side. The best case scenario for AI is that it solves some complex problems like developing cures for cancer without too much collateral damage along the way. The worst case scenario for AI is quite terrible, and if we leave it up to the companies developing it to set their own rules, there will eventually be bad actors that will capitalize on the worst of what the technology is capable of. You could argue that there are currently more bad actors than good actors. There are more people motivated by greed, power, and personal glory than there are people motivated to cure cancer and solve the world's problems.

I fear that even in the best case scenario, we will have a future in which the human experience is significantly dulled as a result of pervasive AI. We will lose a lot of our critical thinking capabilities and our creativity. It will be far easier to ask AI to do things for us than to actually attempt to solve our own problems. It will be far easier to ask AI to write a story or compose music or paint a picture than it will be for a human to do it independently. There are already people in this thread saying they use AI to create recipes from their pantry. I'm not judging, but that could become the norm for future generations and people will have a significantly reduced ability to do a lot of the things that makes us human. People will get used to seeing AI generated content on social media that surpasses what they actually experience in real life, which could make the real world less exciting and spectacular.

The internet revolution is probably the best comparison, but there are a ton of negatives for society that people weren't dealing with 30 years ago. Social media is about 90% detrimental to society. Jobs have not been entirely eliminated by the internet, but many sectors were eliminated or significantly reduced. New jobs have been created, so that's a positive. The human experience, IMO, is generally worse by the fact that we are constantly staring at screens instead of doing things with other people.

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Posted
1 hour ago, wild_turkey said:

Brisket loves a doom and gloom scenario but I think he's absolutely right to be concerned about this. We can't simply ignore it or write it off as science fiction, then cry about it in 10, 20, 50 years when it actually happens.

I have a friend who has a real-estate company in the Austin area (she's got a franchise or however that works).  She can easily see the parent company, who already has a bunch of developers working on adding AI to all of their tools/websites, doing away with franchises, and just having a main corporate office, and a handful of employees in each city who handle any face-to-face stuff that's needed (final walk-throughs, etc.).  She said there is so much in the real estate industry that could be automated on the financial side (planning, mortgage work, etc.) or done online remotely (and some already is) and the research side.

That's a whole helluva lot of people who might go to D.C. in the future and try and stage an insurrection.

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