2024 Houston Texans off-season thread

[Fud 9528]

2 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

If he is then they could just cut him next year with no consequences. If not, they are missing out on several years of service. The only thing that remotely makes sense is if they think they can re-sign him at a lower number next year if they decide they want to keep him. 

Well, they clearly want him to be good this year 

[Tex-19 2868]

The cancelling future years thing is definitely weird. Maybe that was a Diggs requirement to go along with this peacefully. Regardless, I liked the deal a lot before this news but that 2nd round pick seems a little pricey for a 1-year rental. 

[TonyTexas 10467]

21 minutes ago, Fud said:

Well, they clearly want him to be good this year 

He already had incentive. If he’s good, he plays 2025 for $18.5M. If he’s bad, the Texans cut him and he has to sign somewhere else, likely for less. 

[TexasMan 10736]

After next year, they can re-sign him, which would mean he was good, or he'll sign somewhere else, so then the Texans will get a compensatory pick. Only way this is a horrible deal is if he gets hurt early on, imo. 

[Ignatius 3990]

1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

The cancelling future years thing is definitely weird. Maybe that was a Diggs requirement to go along with this peacefully. Regardless, I liked the deal a lot before this news but that 2nd round pick seems a little pricey for a 1-year rental. 

Keep in mind, that 2nd round pick is what we got from Minnesota for moving our 1st rounder back 19 picks. We still have our own 2nd rounder….

[Fud 9528]

57 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

He already had incentive. If he’s good, he plays 2025 for $18.5M. If he’s bad, the Texans cut him and he has to sign somewhere else, likely for less. 

And clearly Houston thought they incentive structure wouldn’t work with him, who’s forced his way off two teams 

2 minutes ago, TexasMan said:

After next year, they can re-sign him, which would mean he was good, or he'll sign somewhere else, so then the Texans will get a compensatory pick. Only way this is a horrible deal is if he gets hurt early on, imo. 

Houston can’t get a comp pick for him 

[Fud 9528]

In the previous structure, if Diggs balled out, he kept the same contract. In the new one, he could get a better contract. It’s corresponds more directly, so it should give him more incentive 

[tx 3 putt 75959]

 

[Zeus 5923]

1 hour ago, Tex-19 said:

The cancelling future years thing is definitely weird. Maybe that was a Diggs requirement to go along with this peacefully. Regardless, I liked the deal a lot before this news but that 2nd round pick seems a little pricey for a 1-year rental. 

Actually I love putting him in a contract year. If he implodes and is a distraction he can fuck off. 

[Fud 9528]

1 minute ago, Zeus said:

Actually I love putting him in a contract year. If he implodes and is a distraction he can fuck off. 

An early second rounder for one year isn’t great. You better win big 

[Ignatius 3990]

33 minutes ago, Fud said:

In the previous structure, if Diggs balled out, he kept the same contract. In the new one, he could get a better contract. It’s corresponds more directly, so it should give him more incentive 

For all you (or any of us) know, this was a condition of the trade in the first place…

[billfromlaketravis 11328]

The Diggs trade is the Vikings pick, right? That pick could easily be 33-39 range. That’s shit value for 1 year.

iIt feels like CJ went shopping, and Diggs was the biggest names/most attainable WR available. 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

They want him to incentivized to ball out in 2024. Reports said both sides preferred this situation. I'm not bothered by it. 

[Bevo 13468]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

They want him to incentivized to ball out in 2024. Reports said both sides preferred this situation. I'm not bothered by it. 

I always find that weird. Is $5M not enough to get someone to try his best? $10M? What's the magic number to get someone to work hard? The guy is 30 and set for life either way. IMO, the work hard part has to come from the inside for a 30 year old football player who has only a few years left in him either way.

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

Also Nico Collins is in a contract year. Seems like Demeco and Caserio want to see how this year goes before locking in a big contract at WR. 

Tank might sneakily have the best season out of all 3. Gonna be interesting. 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

1 minute ago, Bevo said:

I always find that weird. Is $5M not enough to get someone to try his best? $10M? What's the magic number to get someone to work hard? The guy is 30 and set for life either way. IMO, the work hard part has to come from the inside for a 30 year old football player who has only a few years left in him either way.

Because NFL contracts are not guaranteed, the incentives in a contract year are huge. Players/agents are asking for more guaranteed money up front now, which is good for them. 

Small sample size, but I play golf weekly with a NFL DB that "retired" in 2022, but he's considering coming back next year (Dolphins have been calling his agent). He admitted to me that he "let up a little" after he signed his big contract after his rookie deal expired. He isn't proud of it, but injuries are a huge concern and the fact these guys can just be cut if they get a major injury can affect their mindset. 

 

[LTtxfan 48823]

Article by Nick Shook Around The NFL 

Texans adjust Stefon Diggs' contract after trade, clearing path for WR to be free agent in 2025

Quote

Stefon Diggs' move to Houston will come with an added bonus: another chance to cash in via free agency in 2025.

As part of their deal to acquire Diggs, the Texans are eliminating the final three years of Diggs' contract, NFL Network Insider Ian Rapoport reported on Thursday. The move adds four void years to Diggs' deal, while moving money originally guaranteed for 2025 into 2024, effectively giving Diggs a one-year, $22.52 million contract, per Rapoport.

Diggs will become an unrestricted free agent in 2025, meaning his first season with the Texans could also be his last. Diggs could, of course, re-sign with Houston in 2025, but he won't be tied to an extension he originally signed in Buffalo.

One can view it as a good-faith move on the part of the Texans. Knowing he'll be able to capitalize on his earning power as soon as next year, Diggs will have additional incentive to perform at a high level in his first season spent sharing the field with sensational youngster C.J. Stroud. He can also sign a new extension with the Texans, should their partnership work out well enough to convince both parties to continue.

Diggs gobbled up targets in his four years with the Bills, leading the NFL in receiving yards from 2020-2023 while finishing in the top four in receptions and receiving touchdowns. His usage tapered off following Buffalo's change at offensive coordinator during the 2023 season, though, and the Bills eventually decided it was in their best interest to part with him and eat a significant dead cap hit in 2024 instead of proceeding with him as a focal point of their offense.

Houston swooped in to capitalize, sending a 2025 second-round pick in exchange for Diggs and two Day 3 picks -- a 2024 sixth-rounder (No. 189) and 2025 fifth-rounder -- in an attempt to immediately improve following a surprising run to an AFC South title and playoff victory in the 2023 season.

The Texans will give Diggs a trial season with the hopes he was worth the pick sent to Buffalo. If not, after adjusting Diggs' deal this week, they're not committed to him beyond 2024.

 

[LTtxfan 48823]

Doubt Texans would do it, but there may be a franchise tag option for Diggs in 2025...

As part of the restructured deal, the Texans are also moving Diggs' $3.5 million guaranteed for 2025 into 2024 to ensure he has $22.52 million in guarantees for the season. As The Monday Morning Quarterbacks' Albert Breer pointed out, the $22.52 million also means a franchise tag for Diggs next year would top $27 million.

[Hate 20095]

He's on the wrong side of 30 and on his 3rd team.  He isn't getting a 5 year deal again.  He also is in an offense that spreads the ball around.  He won't have a career year hear in Houston where CJ throws to everyone.  Hopefully he is all about winning and wants to end his career with a couple of rings and resigns for a couple of years at a reasonable rate.  If not, byeeeee.

[tx 3 putt 75959]

 

[Zeus 5923]

5 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

The Diggs trade is the Vikings pick, right? That pick could easily be 33-39 range. That’s shit value for 1 year.

iIt feels like CJ went shopping, and Diggs was the biggest names/most attainable WR available. 

Remember this is also an experiment. Diggs could freak out from not getting the ball or losing it with CJ and be goneskis. Just like the Mixon experiment he could punch a woman or get a DUI at any moment and be gone. 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

I do not mind the risks with trading draft picks when it's an aggressive move by the Texans. Everyone thought Houston gave up too much last year to trade up for WAJ, but it worked out. 

I know this situation is different (Texans can't control how good/bad Vikings will be next year), but this is a move they made trying to be a Super Bowl contender. I don't care how it's perceived by NFL analysts and Twitter dorks. 

[Jshep34 2297]

Atleast they are willing to gamble on players and push the poker chips onto the table.

[Fud 9528]

It's a converting on 3rd down to keep drives alive move. He's not the best X or Z on the team because Houston just flat out has dudes at those spots (Collins and Dell), but Diggs moving around in the slot on third down as the primary target with Stroud throwing to him and the other two WRs occupying the best DBs/most zone attention is going to be a problem for defenses.

The offensive line getting healthy and the RB position improving means the play-action game on 1st and 2nd should be improved, which should mean more explosives. The offensive line getting healthy and the Diggs addition means the 3rd down conversions should improved, which should keep more drives alive and give more opportunity for explosives. This is before you get to Stroud potentially improving. 

Houston finished 14th in offensive DVOA last year, and I think there's a clear path to breaking into the top five, which means winning a lot of games on offense alone 

[Fud 9528]

This article on Houston's local visits is a bit of a blast from the past from following recruiting

 

[Fud 9528]

Houston's 30 visits (Cooper and McCaffrey count as local visits, but they visited outside of the local day)

 

[LTtxfan 48823]

 

Bills banned one NFL team from trying to make a trade for Stefon Diggs, per report

When the Buffalo Bills decided to put Stefon Diggs on the trade market, they were willing to make a deal with almost anyone, but there is one team in the NFL that they refused to make a trade with: The Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

 

[TexArcher 37414]

In this thread, I learned that if Stefon Diggs is a bust or he gets hurt, it's bad.

[Fud 9528]

Using Zierlein's prospects grades to try and guess where these guys could be targeted with Houston's picks

Pick 42 

Michael Hall Jr    OSU    DL    6.28
Edgerrin Cooper    A&M    LB    6.28
Kingsley Suamataia    BYU    OT    6.17 (has a lower rating, but he might not even make pick 30)

Pick 59 or 3rd round

Javon Baker    UCF    WR    6.25
Adisa Isaac    PSU    Edge    6.23
 

3rd-5th round

Matt Goncalves    Pitt    OT    6.19
Christian Mahogany    BC    IOL    6.16
Mohamed Kamara    CSU    Edge    6.15
 

Late rounds

Jordan Magee    Temple    LB    6
Luke McCaffrey    Rice    WR    5.96
Travis Glover    GSU    OT    NR
Jamal Hill    Oregon    LB    NR
Qwant'ez Stiggers    CFL    CB    NR
 

[Fud 9528]

3 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

In this thread, I learned that if Stefon Diggs is a bust or he gets hurt, it's bad.

The ROI bar to clear for the trade to be a good trade is high for a pick that'll likely be in the 35-40 range. Diggs needs to be "good Diggs" for this trade to pay off. It won't take much of a decline for it to be a shitty trade 

[TexArcher 37414]

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

The ROI bar to clear for the trade to be a good trade is high for a pick that'll likely be in the 35-40 range. Diggs needs to be "good Diggs" for this trade to pay off. It won't take much of a decline for it to be a shitty trade 

Right, it's just so obvious that I don't understand why it warrants so much conversation.

And when exactly was he "bad Diggs"?  Looking at his stats, you can pretty much pencil him in for 1000+ yards and 8+ touchdowns every year.  And he's never missed more than 3 games in a season.

So, yeah, he needs to perform and not get hurt.  Those are literally always the risks in any trade.  And there's nothing in his history to suggest that he's high risk in either area.

 

Edited April 5 by TexArcher

[Fud 9528]

1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

 

And when exactly was he "bad Diggs"? 

 

The second half of last season. If Houston gets that version for a full season, it was a bad trade 

[TexArcher 37414]

Just now, Fud said:

The second half of last season. If Houston gets that version for a full season, it was a bad trade 

And if they get the other 8.5 years of his career for even a couple of years, they did pretty well.  It's a second rounder for a #1 WR in a playoff contention year.

Time will tell, but these are the shots you take if you're trying to win now.

[LTtxfan 48823]

19 minutes ago, Fud said:

The ROI bar to clear for the trade to be a good trade is high for a pick that'll likely be in the 35-40 range. Diggs needs to be "good Diggs" for this trade to pay off. It won't take much of a decline for it to be a shitty trade 

Not sure about what all should be used to  measure the of success of Diggs trade, but more Texans wins in 2024 vs 2023 is critical. 

Everyone on offense has the chance to benefit from the Diggs addition.  If the Texans passing offense improves, even if Diggs doesn't put up big numbers that's one measurement of success.  And if the 2024 Texans season offensive numbers increase (including scoring and time of possession) that's a success, and likely benefits the defense too.

And I doubt Diggs is happy with this trade without the adjustment to his contract reducing it to 1yr.

 

Edited April 5 by LTtxfan

[Fud 9528]

Receivers can fall off a cliff from elite/great to jaggy or shitty very quickly. The most recent data on Diggs shows that could very well be the case with him, although there are explanations for why that also might not be the case.

If the production fell due to a combination of things like an OC change, him not being happy for whatever reason, and possibly being banged up, then that seems like it could be correctable. Or he might have just lost some juice and is now more of an expensive possession guy who should warrant something more like a 4th rounder than a high 2nd rounder. 

[Seasick Sailor 3747]

11 minutes ago, Fud said:

If the production fell due to a combination of things like an OC change, him not being happy for whatever reason, and possibly being banged up, then that seems like it could be correctable

I think it absolutely was a combination of all three. His drop off corresponds with the OC change and him missing about a week's worth of practices after he landed on a camera guy in the end zone and had back soreness. So he was getting fewer opportunities in a more run oriented offense and was able to do less with the opportunities he did get because he wasn't 100%. That quickly led to him being disgruntled. By the end of the season, it was just an all around bad situation for him and the Bills. Not surprised they wanted to move him. 

 

[Fud 9528]

wrong thread

Edited April 5 by Fud

[tx 3 putt 75959]

Diggs is going ball out next year. 
 

Diggs / Nico / Dell / Schultz <<< good luck covering all 4. And don’t forget about Mixon, also brown/woods had a 1000 yards last year 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

1 hour ago, Fud said:

The second half of last season. If Houston gets that version for a full season, it was a bad trade 

The switched OCs mid-season and focused on running the ball. Diggs did not play poorly, they just didn't throw him the ball as much. 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

The over analysis of this is silly. Diggs is an elite WR. If he stays healthy, he should be excellent next season. In Slowik's scheme he will thrive. It's really not that complicated. 

[Fud 9528]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

The switched OCs mid-season and focused on running the ball. Diggs did not play poorly, they just didn't throw him the ball as much. 

It's more about Brady not being a guy who attempts to scheme open his #1 like the rest of the league does. Moore also didn't get targeted with Brady was OC'ing in Carolina

[SimkinsMan 4322]

I don't know shit about the NFL, and it's great that we're loading up the offense skill positions for our elite QB. My concern is the OL. How does that look in light of all the injuries sustained last year?

[billfromlaketravis 11328]

11 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

I don't know shit about the NFL, and it's great that we're loading up the offense skill positions for our elite QB. My concern is the OL. How does that look in light of all the injuries sustained last year?

They're pinning all their hopes on the fat fuck aggy tackle  guard. 

[Macklemore 2904]

57 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

They're pinning all their hopes on the fat fuck aggy tackle  guard. 

That’s not true at all. It will most likely be Patterson, who was good as a rookie, or a veteran they sign in case of emergency. Nick Broeker and aggy will be battling to make the team.

[Fud 9528]

1 hour ago, SimkinsMan said:

I don't know shit about the NFL, and it's great that we're loading up the offense skill positions for our elite QB. My concern is the OL. How does that look in light of all the injuries sustained last year?

They're hoping they don't get injured 

[billfromlaketravis 11328]

7 minutes ago, Macklemore said:

That’s not true at all. It will most likely be Patterson, who was good as a rookie, or a veteran they sign in case of emergency. Nick Broeker and aggy will be battling to make the team.

I thought I laid the sarcasm on pretty thick. 

[Murfdogg21 4398]

12 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

 

Bills banned one NFL team from trying to make a trade for Stefon Diggs, per report

When the Buffalo Bills decided to put Stefon Diggs on the trade market, they were willing to make a deal with almost anyone, but there is one team in the NFL that they refused to make a trade with: The Kansas City Chiefs. 

 

Can we quick flip Diggs to the Chiefs for the #32 pick and take Mitchell or Worthy instead?

[Macklemore 2904]

27 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

Can we quick flip Diggs to the Chiefs for the #32 pick and take Mitchell or Worthy instead?

[Murfdogg21 4398]

1 hour ago, Macklemore said:

5 years of rookie wage contract with potential star WR with no history of being a malcontent? Diggs having a 50-50 chance of melting down once he realizes he’s going to get less than 30% of the targets? Even if Diggs plays well, he’s a one year rental, I’d expect Mitchell or Worthy to be more than capable as WR3 with Tank, Nico, and Schultz. [this is all fan fiction. Caserio wouldn’t flip Diggs]

Effectively they’d be trading the Vikings 2025 2nd rounder for this year’s #32. Chiefs wouldn’t do it unless they thought Diggs guaranteed them their 3 peat and they had to pay a premium because Buffalo wouldn’t trade him directly to them. 

Edited April 6 by Murfdogg21

[Fud 9528]

58 minutes ago, Murfdogg21 said:

5 years of rookie wage contract with potential star WR with no history of being a malcontent? Diggs having a 50-50 chance of melting down once he realizes he’s going to get less than 30% of the targets? Even if Diggs plays well, he’s a one year rental, I’d expect Mitchell or Worthy to be more than capable as WR3 with Tank, Nico, and Schultz. [this is all fan fiction. Caserio wouldn’t flip Diggs]

Effectively they’d be trading the Vikings 2025 2nd rounder for this year’s #32. Chiefs wouldn’t do it unless they thought Diggs guaranteed them their 3 peat and they had to pay a premium because Buffalo wouldn’t trade him directly to them. 

4 years. The 5th year is no longer cheap if the player is good