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Posted
1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

Chicks Dig the Long Ball (Tuesday) - CJ Vogel

Despite needing a thorough editing, this is a pretty good write up by Vogel on why he believes Texas' offense will be even more explosive this season

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Chicks Dig the Long Ball (Tuesday)

 

CJ Vogel

By CJ Vogel

  • 4 minutes ago
 

For those on Twitter you probably have scrolled by some tweets of mine calling for the return of the long ball and explosivity of the Texas offense to rise under Arch Manning.

I didn't think siding on the "Texas will be more explosive with Arch Manning" train was such a radical take, yet there was some resistance by folks on the timeline. As a result, I went down a minor rabbit hole to explore the type of ceiling this Texas team could have with Manning as the full time quarterback.

***

Texas Had Big Plays in 2024

Yes. Yes they did. 

I liken the 2024 Texas offense to that of Ichiro back in the 2000s. Ichiro led the MLB in hits seven different seasons over the span of a decade, filled with mostly singles and doubles, yet would scrap together an occasional 10 homer season.

On top of the singles and doubles, Ichiro was consistently north of 30 stolen bases per season with a peak of 56. In other words, the speed allowed for him to stretch small plays into big ones, much like that of Jaydon Blue, Matthew Golden and Isaiah Bond did for the Longhorns in 2024.

A stat that gets thrown out often is the "Texas had the most 20-yard plays in the country" in 2024. And you are right, they did. In fact, Texas recorded 108 snaps that resulted in at least 20 yards being gained, that's good!

  • Plays of 20+ yards: 1st (108)
  • Plays of 30+ yards: t-5th (39)
  • Plays of 40+ yards: t-7th (21)
  • Plays of 50+ yards: t-17th (10)

Now let me be up front – it is very difficult to gain 20-50 yards on a single play. The fact that Texas had as many 20-yard plays is 1) remarkable and 2) replica

ble.

The point of my argument was Texas can move on from being Ichiro, – needing to go station to station with first downs to score – to that of a Ronald Acuna Jr. where the speed remains, but the addition of the long ball turns the offense into one of the country's best. 

(For those wondering, Acuna achieved the 5th ever 40 HR, 40 SB seasons in 2023).

The speed will remain on the Texas offense, but there is a true slugger at quarterback with Arch Manning who can consistently hit the long ball.

***

Why Texas Will be More Explosive With Manning

I wanted to run the numbers here and list out all of the 50+ yard plays Texas had in 2024. By my count, there was 10.

  • Ryan Wingo 55-yard rush vs. Michigan (Ewers)
  • Arch Manning 67-yard TD rush vs. UTSA (Manning)
  • Ryan Wingo 75-yard TD reception vs. UTSA (Manning)
  • Isaiah Bond 51-yard TD reception vs. UTSA (Manning)
  • Isaiah Bond 56-yard reception vs. ULM (Manning)
  • DeAndre Moore 50-yard reception vs. Miss State (Manning)
  • Quintrevion Wisner 50-yard TD reception vs. Florida (Ewers)
  • Matthew Golden 50-yard reception vs. Georgia SECCG (Ewers)
  • Jaydon Blue 77-yard rush vs. Clemson (Ewers)
  • Matthew Golden 54-yard reception vs. Arizona State (Ewers)

As you see, of the ten 50+ yard plays in 2024, five came with Quinn Ewers on the field, and five came with Arch Manning on the field. An infamous drop against Miss State also kept another splash play off the tally for Manning in this category as well.

Divvying up the total snap counts as well, Texas had a 50-yard play once every 180.2 snaps with Ewers, compared to once every 46.6 snaps with Manning on the field.

Another stat I came across was % of drop backs that resulted in a pass completed beyond 20 yards downfield. Again, favors Manning by almost double.

  • Ewers: 4.17% of drop backs resulted in a pass completed of >20 yards 
  • Manning: 7.92% of drop backs resulted in a pass completed of >20 yards

And again, let me reemphasize this, 50-yard plays are hard to come by. But the numbers quite favorably lean towards an Arch Manning-led Texas offense putting up massive chunk plays.

***

Where Does the Big Play Come From?

Now this is the question. Texas does not have a 4.29 40-yard dash guy like Matthew Golden, nor a true straight line speed demon like Isaiah Bond. 

However, Speed won't be absent from the wide receiver position this fall. 

  • Wingo recorded 10.50 100m
  • Mosley reportedly recorded a 10.7 100m
  • Moore recorded 10.90 100m
  • Livingstone ran 21.7 in the 200m 

Not to mention, Manning connected on massive splash plays with Wingo and Moore in 2024, and again, would have added another to his tally had Johntay Cook come down with a deep shot against Mississippi State.

Plus, Sarkisian's ability to scheme open receivers (and tight ends) will help with the big play.

***

My best bet is this: Even with the unknown of the offensive line and subsequent running game, the Longhorns end up with their first top-10 scoring offense under Steve Sarkisian.

  • 2024: 33.0 PPG (29th)
  • 2023: 35.8 PPG (15th)
  • 2022: 34.5 PPG (25th)
  • 2021: 35.3 PPG (18th)

In large part due to the home run hitting ability of Arch Manning.

 

This can be a bit deceiving. Texas busted a bunch of screen passes. They are explosive gains, but not necessarily "chicks dig the long ball". Arch had an aDOT of 11.1 and Quinn was at 7.2. That is substantial and gives you bit more information on how far the pass traveled. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Posted
2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Full Ride on XM 84 this morning had Childers and Roy Philpott. They had resident shithead Chip Brown on and he immediately proceeds to tell them that Texas has no business being ranked #1. He runs down Manning as inexperienced and then recounts personnel losses.

Philpott: "Who would you have #1?"

Brown: "Clemson"

Philpott: "Clemson? Texas just beat them in a game that wasn't really close for most of the game. Why Clemson?"

Brown: "They return everybody and they've all gotten better. Klubnik is a stud and is the best QB in the country. Dabo is a championship coach. I just don't think Texas is ready."

How in the world is that shitty motherfucker still allowed credentials to this program? He's another one of these buffoons that are constantly negative about the program they cover. This is a guy who has written hit pieces designed to harm the program as a means, allegedly, of paying off gambling debt. He's never said an informed thing that any other writer or talking head couldn't have said better when talking to a national audience. It's despicable. 

The rest of their discussions that meandered in and out of Texas for 2025 were all positive. Hell, Joe Cook was on Off Campus yesterday and he did a fine job and sounded relatively informed. It's not that hard to just not be a fuck up. 

 

6tdjaj.gif

  • Hook 'Em 2
Posted
They kicked the tires, thinking about depth risk, but Oregon was willing to pay for a starter, which Texas didn't think it needed. Most of the OL entering the portal want starter assurances. That position in particular is as much about PT as money in the portal. Frankly, OL are still the most stagnant people on a given roster. Good ones stay put, bad ones will stay put if you keep paying them, and mostly only the hungry ones not starting are leaving to start. 
Compare that to DT where starting isn't the priority for a lot of guys. It's almost kind of weird. Even WRs, the biggest prima donnas in the portal, have joined UT's roster and others merely for playing assurances in their system for good money. 

After Cojoe went down didn’t Sark answer a question about addressing it in the portal something like, ‘There is no such thing as a starting OT in the portal.’
Posted
4 hours ago, South Austin said:

He said Jalen Milroe is near!

He was talking about a drill bit used to cut a big hole in wood. One side, cuts, one side nicks.

Posted
1 hour ago, TrashMaster G said:

I caught yesterday's College Football Live and was entertained by our own Sam Acho opining that Texas as #1 is suspect because, even though we made the playoff the last two years "You've got to do something once you are there."

Or, words to that effect.

🙄

I caught that too.  He said something about "...you can't go to the playoffs and always lose" or something close to that.  Dumb take.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Teamdirtyleg said:

I caught that too.  He said something about "...you can't go to the playoffs and always lose" or something close to that.  Dumb take.

Good take: Final four, position to win at the end... and... nope.

This time, make it happen.

Posted

So  I listened to Sark's press conference this morning and I was shocked to hear him mention Aaron Butler being a highlight player from the scrimmage this weekend and having a lot of catches.  Were the "insiders" wrong or was Sark trolling them after they put out he was dropping passes over the weekend?

Posted
20 minutes ago, Teamdirtyleg said:

I caught that too.  He said something about "...you can't go to the playoffs and always lose" or something close to that.  Dumb take.

Well, consider the source.

Posted

Is the social media team posting fewer highlight clips from scrimmage and practices this year? It seems like in years past we had videos of several sick catches and random big plays by now that we can all overreact to. 

Or, presented in the style of satyanash, I think we’re probably doomed because we haven’t produced a single notable highlight in practice so far this preseason. 

  • Haha 3
Posted
54 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

This can be a bit deceiving. Texas busted a bunch of screen passes. They are explosive gains, but not necessarily "chicks dig the long ball". Arch had an aDOT of 11.1 and Quinn was at 7.2. That is substantial and gives you bit more information on how far the pass traveled. 

*deceptive

🤬

1 minute ago, UncleSonny said:

Is the social media team posting fewer highlight clips from scrimmage and practices this year? It seems like in years past we had videos of several sick catches and random big plays by now that we can all overreact to. 

Or, presented in the style of satyanash, I think we’re probably doomed because we haven’t produced a single notable highlight in practice so far this preseason. 

This. All the practices are closed because we suck.

Posted
46 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:


After Cojoe went down didn’t Sark answer a question about addressing it in the portal something like, ‘There is no such thing as a starting OT in the portal.’

No. If you watch the media availability where he said that, he was referring to going to the portal right now. "I'd be better off going to the co-op." He wasn't referring to the portal in general.

He could very well believe that. Maybe him and Kyle Flood simply don't think there's a good payoff for a quality OL in the portal. But that's not what he said. Or at least, not the complete context for it.

I will say this. The biggest issue as much as anything else since Mackovic was fired, is that the head coaches simply don't bring in enough bodies at OL. Certainly not enough quality bodies. The quality part almost goes without saying. But also not enough bodies period. OL is the hardest position group IMO to give a projected evaluation.

Sarkisian and Flood reversed that quickly when they got here, but now we're moving towards the same dynamic. We're simply not bringing in enough OL in our recruiting classes. I thought we were going to have a group of 5 or 6 in this class, and maybe we still will. But our tackle group in particular is very thin. I'm not exactly a lone wolf on this. I see plenty of other posters making comments on it, so I'm not out here saying I'm seeing something other people aren't. I'm simply saying I agree with posters who look at our roster and depth chart and think there's something amiss with our talent acquisition strategy in terms of sheer numbers. 

Posted
24 minutes ago, GTJ1982 said:

So  I listened to Sark's press conference this morning and I was shocked to hear him mention Aaron Butler being a highlight player from the scrimmage this weekend and having a lot of catches.  Were the "insiders" wrong or was Sark trolling them after they put out he was dropping passes over the weekend?

I believe everything a coach says in a media availability literally. There's never any agendas involved. 

If he mentions him several times, then we see him on Saturdays being productive, then I'll believe it. Until then I'm going to assume he's giving a call out to be encouraging and to help keep Butler's buy in for the season. 

I will say there are players he mentions on multiple occasions and I do pay attention to that. For example, he keeps bringing up Ty'Anthony Smith. I don't think Smith is going to get starter snaps, but I do think he could play a bigger role this season than we generally think, and I think that primarily because Sarkisian keeps making a point to bring him up. 

Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

No. If you watch the media availability where he said that, he was referring to going to the portal right now. "I'd be better off going to the co-op." He wasn't referring to the portal in general.

He could very well believe that. Maybe him and Kyle Flood simply don't think there's a good payoff for a quality OL in the portal. But that's not what he said. Or at least, not the complete context for it.

I will say this. The biggest issue as much as anything else since Mackovic was fired, is that the head coaches simply don't bring in enough bodies at OL. Certainly not enough quality bodies. The quality part almost goes without saying. But also not enough bodies period. OL is the hardest position group IMO to give a projected evaluation.

Sarkisian and Flood reversed that quickly when they got here, but now we're moving towards the same dynamic. We're simply not bringing in enough OL in our recruiting classes. I thought we were going to have a group of 5 or 6 in this class, and maybe we still will. But our tackle group in particular is very thin. I'm not exactly a lone wolf on this. I see plenty of other posters making comments on it, so I'm not out here saying I'm seeing something other people aren't. I'm simply saying I agree with posters who look at our roster and depth chart and think there's something amiss with our talent acquisition strategy in terms of sheer numbers. 

there are 2 truths about the OL. The portal has very few quality bodies. Trying to get a legit dancing bear at LT from HS is an absolute bloodbath of a recruitment. There is a reason Tackle is the highest paid position in the NFL. They just are not a lot of them around. 

According to Spotrac.com, the average salaries for various position groups in the NFL for the 2024 season are as follows:

  • Long Snapper: $1,069,016
  • Fullback: $1,724,440
  • Punter: $1,520,940
  • Running Back: $1,789,687
  • Cornerback: $1,999,348
  • Wide Receiver: $2,277,703
  • Tight End: $2,055,238
  • Safety: $2,196,749
  • Kicker: $2,228,472
  • Defensive Tackle: $2,496,660
  • Center: $2,394,058
  • Defensive End: $2,996,247
  • Guard: $2,500,421
  • Edge Rusher: $3,234,289
  • Outside Linebacker: $3,703,880
  • Inside Linebacker: $3,856,602
  • Quarterback: $4,855,892
  • Right Tackle: $5,128,198
  • Left Tackle: $8,952,680
Edited by Codaxx
Posted

Chip Brown. Kirk Bohls. Geoff Ketchum. There are a couple of others with the same schtick. Heck, Bobby Burton when he founded National Recruiting Advisor always seemed to discount Texas affiliated players a bit to keep from seeming biased. Not to lump Burton with any of them, because he's always had an air of professionalism even before he tied himself to covering UT exclusively, and has kept it that way.

I don't think there's another program in the country with more villain status people covering the program as their main gig. There are plenty of haters around the country. We're a polarizing program. But to have these talking heads represent us in talk formats everywhere as "Longhorn homers" when they giddily love planting blades between our shoulders simply as a point of emphasis to show they're capable of it is infuriating.

I remember when the thin skinned Mack Brown was trying to control the narrative around his program early on, he tried to shut out media representatives from having access in different ways. Not overtly, but in subtle ways. He did a full on press with Chip Brown when CB was at the Dallas Morning News trying to ingratiate him so he'd only print a Longhorn slant on everything he wrote. There was a complete misjudging of character. 

Posted
56 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Maybe. He IS a doctor. Maybe he's a doctor in a hospital that has a mandatory white tube sock policy. 

Never wear ankle socks with long pants - too annoying.

Posted
6 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

there are 2 truths about the OL. The portal has very few quality bodies. Trying to get a legit dancing bear at LT from HS is an absolute bloodbath of a recruitment. There is a reason Tackle is the highest paid position in the NFL. They just are not a lot of them around. 

According to Spotrac.com, the average salaries for various position groups in the NFL for the 2024 season are as follows:

  • Long Snapper: $1,069,016
  • Fullback: $1,724,440
  • Punter: $1,520,940
  • Running Back: $1,789,687
  • Cornerback: $1,999,348
  • Wide Receiver: $2,277,703
  • Tight End: $2,055,238
  • Safety: $2,196,749
  • Kicker: $2,228,472
  • Defensive Tackle: $2,496,660
  • Center: $2,394,058
  • Defensive End: $2,996,247
  • Guard: $2,500,421
  • Edge Rusher: $3,234,289
  • Outside Linebacker: $3,703,880
  • Inside Linebacker: $3,856,602
  • Quarterback: $4,855,892
  • Right Tackle: $5,128,198
  • Left Tackle: $8,952,680

But at some point it's not necessarily about getting a starting NFL tackle. I know that's the aspiration at Texas, and it should be. But if you don't have enough bodies in the pipeline, if you're going to compete for national championships you better get them somehow. 

It's still a very legitimate point, and I'm not trying to argue it. It's also the easiest thing in the world to spend someone else's money. I have no agency in any of this. To me it makes sense to wait for chaos and then take advantage of opportunities if they present themselves. 

Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I'm longing for Matthew Golden regardless of how good Jaggy McJaggerson is.

Golden was a junior, of course. Livingston is a freshman (rs) starting at WR. The exact opposite of a JAG. After Worthy and Wingo, when’s the last time we had that?

Edited by mwaadeeb
lol wrong golden was a jr and forgot wingo
Posted
2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

But at some point it's not necessarily about getting a starting NFL tackle. I know that's the aspiration at Texas, and it should be. But if you don't have enough bodies in the pipeline, if you're going to compete for national championships you better get them somehow. 

It's still a very legitimate point, and I'm not trying to argue it. It's also the easiest thing in the world to spend someone else's money. I have no agency in any of this. To me it makes sense to wait for chaos and then take advantage of opportunities if they present themselves. 

To your point on evaluating OL. There a lot of LT in the NFL that were grew into their bodies later. It a hard game to play, but I wouldnt mind offering a lighter kid with a basketball background as a 4th or 5th in classes (aka Goosby). 

Posted
3 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Golden was a senior, of course. Livingston is a freshman (rs) starting at WR. The exact opposite of a JAG. After Worthy, when’s the last time we had that?

a. Golden was a junior.  

b. 2024 Ryan Wingo

  • Haha 3
Posted

It's an ill-advised question, simply because NIL and the transfer rules have completely transformed college football.  I'm not sure it will be possible for a school to become a dynasty of the type that Bama was for well over a decade.

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