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Holy shit you dipshits: 9-3 Texas is probably in the playoffs


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Posted
Just now, Newy25 said:

A 9-3 Texas team means we have three wins against top 10 teams and played five top 10 teams overall. That would be a lock to make the expanded playoffs. If we really did fix the offensive line the new hole in the damn is the one created by Akina in our secondary. Time to remove the tourniquet from the offensive line and figure out how to stop the bleeding in the secondary. 

Not having our top 3 safeties injured?

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Posted
1 minute ago, Newy25 said:

A 9-3 Texas team means we have three wins against top 10 teams and played five top 10 teams overall. That would be a lock to make the expanded playoffs. If we really did fix the offensive line the new hole in the damn is the one created by Akina in our secondary. Time to remove the tourniquet from the offensive line and figure out how to stop the bleeding in the secondary. 

Pretty sure the answer is getting back our starting safeties. 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not having our top 3 safeties injured?

The first game Baxter,  Wisner, Mosley, and Taaffe are healthy and Stroh isn’t playing LG all at the same time is the game we put it all together. 

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted (edited)

Right now the ACC and big 12 have two each. Probably won’t stay that way but it is that way right now imo. We need mayhem and chaos in the big 12 and ACC. Big 10 is pretty much on lock down with 3, no more. SEC is 4 (A&M, bama, Georgia, ole Miss rn) and maybe 5 (Texas or OU). But the fifth is highly dependent on who and what else happens. Heck, right now the math adds up to 13 if you give SEC 4… (ACC 2, Big 12 2, Big 3, ND 1, rando conference 1, SEC 4 = 13).

the November race to the playoffs is incredible. Having a vested interest in games like Ga Tech/NCST … that’s  the key takeaway…. 

as for Texas chances at 9-3? Coin flip at best bc too many dependencies including rando Big 12 and ACC matches, how good OU and Vandy look, and style points for Texas assuming a GA loss and Arky and A&M wins. Sadly at this point GA and Aggy keep winning - Vandy too - is more important than we realize. OU is a playoff sleeper so not them, dropping one would be helpful, unless we can be assured we have the head to head. We need to not only beat two top 10s, we need to beat at least one top 5 and then point to two top 5 losses. Fla beating ole Miss sure would be nice too.

Edited by scramblyn
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Posted

Yep, you can’t call it a lock without seeing what happens around the country

67% with only a loss to Georgia to finish the year is damn good odds, but not “guaranteed”

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Posted
Just now, Js1 said:

Yep, you can’t call it a lock without seeing what happens around the country

67% with only a loss to Georgia to finish the year is damn good odds, but not “guaranteed”

I don’t think it’s that high right now, way too many dependencies. 

Posted
Just now, scramblyn said:

I don’t think it’s that high right now, way too many dependencies. 

The ESPN computers say 67% if we only lose to Georgia.

But again. CFB never works the way it is just supposed to. Gonna be rooting for chaos next week since we have a bye 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The ESPN computers say 67% if we only lose to Georgia.

But again. CFB never works the way it is just supposed to. Gonna be rooting for chaos next week since we have a bye 

I assumed you pulled it from a source I still don’t agree. But it may already assume chaos is likely. If you peer forward into the big 12 and ACC and assume mayhem then 1 spot opens up (we are already 13 with SEC 4 so we need two ACC / Big 12 to drop).

if both those leagues are 1 bid only then SEC +5 is possible but honestly that’s a bit of a controversy, unless we are moving to Big + SEC + ND plus yank 2-3 programs from ACC for a super league and tell the rest of CFB to fuck off then I think SEC +5 is bad for CFB.

Posted
24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Pretty sure the answer is getting back our starting safeties. 


Thats a big part of it but the problem is more than that. Our backup safety and corner look like they have never played a down of football in their entire life. There is coaching malpractice by Akina right now. 

Posted

A lot of this discussion is predicated on penciling in wins over Aggie and Pig.  I'm as hopeful for good things as the next fan, but I would like to interject that the football gods are frowning upon the idea of taking a rivalry win for granted.  Let's just say we have a pretty good chance if we go 2 outta 3 for the remaining games and leave it at that.

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Posted
1 minute ago, immamac said:

Fuck Georgia we aren't going 9-3

I said above if we are healthy we put it together as long as sark doesn’t eat a booger and think it’s finally coming together for his long developing pro style attack in Athens. 

Posted
Just now, El Squared said:

Just win baby, CFP projections like this are jerk offs. Next game, all that matters. All energy into every game.

What’s wrong with jerking off, are you a fucking Puritan?

Posted
4 minutes ago, Goredho said:

I think the true identity of this team has been revealed.  The people thinking we should be #1 were delusional.  The people thinking everyone associated with the team were irredeemably awful were wrong.  Some have probably been wrong on both sides of that coin this season.

This Texas team is very talented, but very young, inexperienced and inconsistent.  There is a large gap between our ceiling and floor of play, with the ceiling being pretty damn high, and the low being pretty damn low.  Our mean of play isn't meaningful, because of the variance week to week can be so far above or below it, towards our ceiling or floor.  I think that ability to play down to our floor keeps us from winning the conference or making it to the playoffs this year.

BUT, you can see some marked improvement in individuals, units and team as a whole over the course of the season.  Improvement to where their floor is increasing week to week, the weekly variance in our play is decreasing, and the mean of play is trending towards the ceiling as we are starting to avoid playing down to our floor.  The players are gaining experience and confidence in themselves and each other.  They are calming the fuck down during games.  That bodes well for the future.  I think with the right NIL/portal/coaching moves in the offseason, we have a legitimate shot to win it all next season.

This is a good and rational take. 

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Texas vs SEC Refs in Athens going to be fun. Will be all kinds of idiocy  fuckery in that one. 

Fixed for accuracy.

Edited by El Squared
Posted
9 hours ago, Crockett said:

SEC with 5 teams and Big 12 only 1? SEC a bunch of greedy fart sniffers. Barring a collapse, BYU and Tech should be in, and dare I say it, maybe Utah deserves it, too.

How many SEC teams would be undefeated against BYU's and Tech's schedules? I'd say at least 5. 

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Posted
9 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

Yes, I know. It’s bullshit!

Can’t take a single 2 loss Big12 team but we can take multiple 2 loss teams from BIG and SEC

Tech, Utah, and BYU are all good enough to equal the results of all those 2 loss SEC teams

But we are told they aren’t good enough to prove it on the field (in the CFP)

bama went to tallahassee and lost

Texas went to columbus and lost

lsu went to clemson and WON

aggy went to south bend and WON

there's your benchmarks

what rig12 team played an out-of-conference game this season against a team that has won a national championship (AP/1936 UPI/1950)?

which of those games were away games?

the best wins for all of the rig12 contenders have been measured and found wanting

start scheduling pX out of conference and then you can resume bitching

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Posted
3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I personally think some of y’all are smoking crack if you think a 9-3 Texas gets in as the 5th sec team, unless a whole lotta losing happens with several other teams. 

The Texas haters on the playoff committee will relish knocking Texas out. The SEC haters will not stand for 5 teams. The close lucky wins over Kentucky and MSU hurt. The fade against Vanderbilt hurts, because many only saw the score, not the game, due to the espn outage. 

As I sat here and thought about scenarios of who has to win or lose, I realized I probably don’t even care much about 9-3 Texas getting in because that means they lost to Aggie or Georgia, which means they aren’t good enough anyway to win in the playoffs. 

So I’ve decided they will go 10-2. 

with you on all counts

additional caveat: the committee told us they were not going to penalize marquee out-of-conference losses

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Hagbard Celine said:

additional caveat: the committee told us they were not going to penalize marquee out-of-conference losses

 

Further caveat: "The committee" has been lying through their teeth for their entire misbegotten existence.

Remember, a camel is the result of a committee attempting to design a horse. 

Posted

Also- the entire point of this thing is to put on a TV show and make lots and lots of money. All things being equal. 
what makes more money- 9-3 Texas with Arch as QB coming off a win over a top 5 aggy, or 11-2 tech coming off a big 12 loss to BYU?  
Do you think it’s possible that when they took 11-2 SMU last year over bama and they got blown out with shit ratings that the people writing the check for this thing said- hey assholes- how about you don’t give us shitty games from non helmet schools AND further incentivize schools to schedule a bunch of shitty out of conference games? 

Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also- the entire point of this thing is to put on a TV show and make lots and lots of money. All things being equal. 
what makes more money- 9-3 Texas with Arch as QB coming off a win over a top 5 aggy, or 11-2 tech coming off a big 12 loss to BYU?  
Do you think it’s possible that when they took 11-2 SMU last year over bama and they got blown out with shit ratings that the people writing the check for this thing said- hey assholes- how about you don’t give us shitty games from non helmet schools AND further incentivize schools to schedule a bunch of shitty out of conference games? 

Not sure the point you are making on SMU, but half of their non conference games last year were P5 matchups. Just like Texas last year. Unlikely Texas this year. 

Edited by Bert Orange
Posted
10 hours ago, BluTechsan said:

Yes, I know. It’s bullshit!

Can’t take a single 2 loss Big12 team but we can take multiple 2 loss teams from BIG and SEC

Tech, Utah, and BYU are all good enough to equal the results of all those 2 loss SEC teams

But we are told they aren’t good enough to prove it on the field (in the CFP)

Tech has played one of the easiest schedules a power conference team has ever played, and they still managed to drop a game. 

Posted

still a lot of football to be played. the only thing texas can do is win the games ahead of it. 

9-3 is probably a bubble team this year with all the chaos , if you're a texas fan pray for more chaos at the top 

10-2 is the goal , and win and we're in 

I like the way the offensive seems to be geling - offense finally bailed the defense out of a game. 

I like ending the season against piggy and a&m at home, and i like that georgia will be distracted by moostate next week while we rest 

get it done horns 

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Posted

Playoffs? Playoffs?: Texas' path at 9-3 - Gerry

Spoiler

Playoffs? Playoffs?: Texas' path at 9-3

 

Gerry Hamilton

By Gerry Hamilton

  • 3 hours ago
 

Playoffs? Playoffs?: Texas' path at 9-3 

The first College Football Playoff ranking for 2025 will be released Tuesday. A 10-2 Texas team is a cinch, obviously. So let's look at what would be Texas' path at 9-3 to be part of the 2025 CFP.

First, the how Texas gets to 9-3 and best way to get in at 9-3. 

The best scenario ...
Loss at Georgia (playoff team), win against Arkansas and beat an 11-0 Texas A&M ranked No. 3 to end regular season. That would give Texas it's best win, when it matters most. To be clear, either winning at Georgia or Texas A&M could be enough dependent on factors below. But you never want to lose your final regular season game at home for a third loss in the current 12 team playoff. That's not ending to get one over the hump. 

Who is in (barring a total collapse)...
1. Ohio State - Big 10
2. Indiana - Big 10
3. Texas A&M - SEC 
4. One G5

Who is likely in (best chances to be at least 10-2)
5. Alabama - SEC
6. Oregon -Big 10
7. Georgia - SEC
8. Ole Miss - SEC

Have you ever been a Pittsburgh Panthers fan? 
Order the hat on Amazon. Notre Dame plays at Pitt November 15. The Panthers have a solid team at 7-2, and have an off week to heal up and prep for hosting the Fighting Irish. 

Notre Dame taking a third loss truyl opens up the 12 team playoff for the SEC to get five teams in, including one at 9-3. 

The ACC sucks ...
The ACC could be headed for a one bid league unless Pitt pulls off an electric finish. That Georgia Tech loss at N.C. State Saturday was a body blow for the ACC. 

Carson Beck did Carson Beck things, and now Miami has two losses with a trip to Pitt to end the regular season. Beck has 21 INT's in his last 18 games. Canes absolutely threw millions away. The Canes have N.C. State and at Virginia Tech prior. 

Virginia (8-1, 5-0) - vs. Wake Forest, at Duke, vs. Virginia Tech 
Georgia Tech (8-1, 5-1) - @ Boston College, vs. Pitt, vs. Georgia 
Pitt (7-2, 5-1) - vs. Notre Dame, at Georgia Tech, vs. Miami 
Louisville (7-1, 4-1) - vs. California, vs. Clemson, @ SMU, vs. Kentucky 

The ACC's best current hope for getting two in the CFP would be Virginia and Louisville winning out, and Louisville winning the ACC Championship Game. 

Can the Big 12 get two in? 
The Big 12 is trending towards a one big league, but a BYU vs. Texas Tech Big 12 Championship game could get it to two. 

BYU (8-0, 5-0) - @ Texas Tech, TCU @ Cincinnati, vs. UCF
Texas Tech (8-1, 5-1) - vs. BYU, vs. UCF, @ West Virginia 
Cincinnati (7-2, 5-1) - vs. Arizona, vs. BYU, @ TCU 

Key note: Utah (7-2) can win out, but losses both ties breakers to BYU and Texas Tech due to head-to-head losses, so they won't be in Big 12 Championship Game barring a meltdown by the Cougars or Red Raiders. 

The potential 9-3 hopefuls from Big 10 and SEC ...
Texas (7-2, 4-1) - @ Georgia, vs. Arkansas, vs. Texas A&M
Vanderbilt (7-2, 3-2) - vs. Auburn, vs. Kentucky, @ Tennessee 
Oklahoma (7-2, 3-2) - @ Alabama, vs. Missouri, vs. LSU 
Key note: Texas holds the tie breaker's over Vanderbilt and Oklahoma due to head-to-head wins

USC (6-2, 4-1) - vs. Northwestern, vs. Iowa, @ Oregon, vs. UCLA 
Michigan (7-2, 5-1) - @ Northwestern, @ Maryland, vs. Ohio State 
Key note: USC holds the tie breaker over Michigan due to head-to-head win

 

 

Posted
38 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Also- the entire point of this thing is to put on a TV show and make lots and lots of money. All things being equal. 
what makes more money- 9-3 Texas with Arch as QB coming off a win over a top 5 aggy, or 11-2 tech coming off a big 12 loss to BYU?  
Do you think it’s possible that when they took 11-2 SMU last year over bama and they got blown out with shit ratings that the people writing the check for this thing said- hey assholes- how about you don’t give us shitty games from non helmet schools AND further incentivize schools to schedule a bunch of shitty out of conference games? 

They have to keep some semblance of fairness and smu was pretty much in before the conf championship game loss and the committee has also said no penalties for making and losing the conf championship - also money makers and also penalizing conf champ game losers has pretty extreme negative consequences to the legitimacy of competition and conference championship. SMU over bama was not only easily justifiable it was the only choice 

Posted (edited)

I have been saying since the OU win that Texas “could” be on a 2024 Bama 9-3 trajectory (Bama was 1st team out last season).  Playoffs certainly not guaranteed at 9-3, but certainly on the table. If that last win is at home against an undefeated Aggies, that certainly feeds the committee’s recency bias. Eye test matters though.  Eeking out wins vs lowly Kentucky & Miss St certainly didn’t help the cause.  It’s unfortunate the final score vs Vandy yesterday didn’t end as convincingly as most of the game was.  Must play Georgia close if it’s a loss.  And line and Arch must continue to display improvement.  One more thing: playing and losing in the SEC championship game “could” be more detrimental to their playoff chances than finishing 9-3 and missing conference title game.

Edited by Steelers Roll Left
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Posted
57 minutes ago, horn009 said:

Tech has played one of the easiest schedules a power conference team has ever played, and they still managed to drop a game. 

Tech’s non-con was putrid but their league slate isn’t that bad: UH, ASU, BYU, Utah all competent football teams. 
 

The worst schedule in the country for my money is Virginia. 

Posted

The NCAA March Madness committee is all over this stuff. They have a damn good algorithm that rewards quad 1/2 wins and punishes shitty scheduling. The CFP committee is overly focused on absolute W/L records. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Bert Orange said:

Not sure the point you are making on SMU, but half of their non conference games last year were P5 matchups. Just like Texas last year. Unlikely Texas this year. 

Nobody gives a shit who asMU plays in non conference. Nobody. 
 

people care who Texas and bama play in non conference. Not letting in Texas at 9-3 bc they lost to Ohio state is dumb. 

Posted

Well you pretty clearly stated as part of your point the disincentive to strong OOC games. Which SMU did no more so than Texas did. That they lost in the first round isn’t related to this. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Committee needs to be careful. If 9-3 Texas is left out, that's the end of competitive noncon scheduling. Especially with SEC moving to 9 game conference schedules. 

Yeah we’ll see if they’re all talk

Posted
4 minutes ago, Bert Orange said:

Well you pretty clearly stated as part of your point the disincentive to strong OOC games. Which SMU did no more so than Texas did. That they lost in the first round isn’t related to this. 

No youbsrenmissingnthebpkintband I’m not sure if it’s because you are intentionally obtuse or what, but by definition SMU can’t be involved in a big non conference matchup like I’m talking about because nobody but nobody gives a fucking shit about SMU. Theres like 20 schools that move the needle TV wise. TV wants those schools playing each other preseason. Thats the point. Thats why the idea of punishing Texas for losing a 1 score game at Ohio State is absurd. Texas should be treated like a 10-2 team that scheduled shit teams for non conference purposes. This isn’t hard. Ole Miss doesn’t get in before us if they go 10-2 bc they scheduled Washington state while we scheduled Ohio state. That would be retarded. The TV people aren’t retarded. 

Posted

We don’t have a run game. We aren’t making it to the playoffs. Would be cool though.

But 9-3 would not be bad at all considering what we looked like the beginning of the year. So I’m all for 9-3. There were moments I wasn’t sure we were going to a bowl game lol.

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Posted
17 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Tech’s non-con was putrid but their league slate isn’t that bad: UH, ASU, BYU, Utah all competent football teams. 
 

The worst schedule in the country for my money is Virginia. 

To add some objective analysis to this (from my model). 

Tech has played the 49th schedule to date and 52nd thru the end of season.   Virginia 54th and 58th respectively.

Georgia Tech, Louisville are both worse to date, though (but finish better).

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