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Posted
6 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

he's not going to do this nor should he.

True story

I don't think our season ticket holders, alumni, and fans want to miss out on Ohio State next year. Or Michigan in '27. Or Notre Dame in '29. CDC is committed to one marquee OOC opponent every year.

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Posted
2 hours ago, UTGrad98 said:

The more I think about it, the more I feel Texas should be in the playoffs if they beat aggy. They would 100% be in if they played a cupcake non conference schedule like 99% of the other teams. Here is what CDC should post if we win this Friday.

"If Texas does not make the playoffs, it would verify, again, teams should not schedule quality non-conference opponents. In the future, fan experience would suffer and the college football product itself would suffer as teams will look to the path of least resistance. The University of Texas will be watching closely what the playoff committee does as will our TV sponsors for our upcoming non-conference games."

PS- Dont fucking test me on this.

- CDC

Instead of CDC, he’d need to sign it PAB because that’d be a pussy ass bitch move. 

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Posted
58 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

but I don't think a 3-loss team should qualify.

This is just outdated thinking.  Particularly with the SEC going to a 9 game schedule going forward.  There are going to be 3 loss SEC teams every year that are objectively better and would be favored on a neutral field over 1 loss ACC and Big 12 teams.  Particularly those that play dogshit both OOC and a significantly watered down conference schedule comparatively.

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Posted
Just now, Skipper said:

This is just outdated thinking.  Particularly with the SEC going to a 9 game schedule going forward.  There are going to be 3 loss SEC teams every year that are objectively better and would be favored on a neutral field over 1 loss ACC and Big 12 teams.  Particularly those that play dogshit both OOC and a significantly watered down conference schedule comparatively.

And every year in other sports a team in a good division/conference may miss the playoffs with a better record than a team that makes it in from a worse division/conference. Win the fucking games you play and go to the playoffs. 
 

“Oh, TT has an easy schedule and we’re in the SEC so we should get more leeway.” That’s some aggy ass argument that was constantly mocked when they left the Big 12 for the SEC. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Skipper said:

There are going to be 3 loss SEC teams every year that are objectively better and would be favored on a neutral field over 1 loss ACC and Big 12 teams. 

Objectively better based on what metrics?

Posted
22 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

True story

I don't think our season ticket holders, alumni, and fans want to miss out on Ohio State next year. Or Michigan in '27. Or Notre Dame in '29. CDC is committed to one marquee OOC opponent every year.

Season Ticket holder, alumni and fan here. If playoff stays at 12, I would be completely fine replacing these games with Syracuse or equivalent.  And CDC isn't stupid and understands the "math" arguments that myself and others are trying to make to the "dur.... just beat Florida" crowd.  We will have plenty of marquee home games in conference.

The reality is Sankey has to be pissed watching the committee do exactly what they said they would not do (count losses) and only solution to protect the SEC with a 9 game conference slate is expansion.  Again, if I were to place a bet, I would think Sankey is absolutely willing to go to 24 (not his public stance) as long as the Big 12 and ACC don't get 4 auto qualifiers.  

Just now, DFW Horn said:

Objectively better based on what metrics?

All of them.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, gernblansten said:

And every year in other sports a team in a good division/conference may miss the playoffs with a better record than a team that makes it in from a worse division/conference. Win the fucking games you play and go to the playoffs. 
 

“Oh, TT has an easy schedule and we’re in the SEC so we should get more leeway.” That’s some aggy ass argument that was constantly mocked when they left the Big 12 for the SEC. 

sure but guess who the Chiefs would request to play if they had their choice of opponent for 4 of their games.

Posted
1 minute ago, Skipper said:

"dur.... just beat Florida" crowd.  

All of them.  

1. Just don't get blown out in November against UGA. Does that work for you?

2. "All of them" doesn't account for anything. Now you sound like aggy when the "SEC is the bestest" argument didn't work for us.

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Posted
48 minutes ago, Alien Octopus said:

No it is not circular thinking. Nobody mentioned Bama. I said, OU and Vandy should be behind us. I said nothing about Bama. Bama should have been dropped after losing to Ou at home but I said nothing about this. The teams in contention we beat head to head should not be ranked above us. Nothing circular, pretty linear. 

Your not saying anything about Bama does not mean they are not germane to the discussion. For your argument to  make sense logically bama has to be behind OU and therefore us but also ahead of Georgia, who must somehow also be ahead of us. You know, because of head to head
 

 

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Posted
Just now, DFW Horn said:

Meh...the Vegas odds are oftentimes skewed, too, based on preseason and early season rankings. 

aren't we talking about the end of the season?

Posted
3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

aren't we talking about the end of the season?

What Vegas metrics are you recommending for determining the Top 12 FBS teams to qualify for the CFB Playoffs?

Posted

Alabama has almost the exact same resume as Texas (the loss at FSU has really aged poorly) except they played a shitty Wisconsin team at home and we played the defending champs on the road. 

 

Posted
Just now, Gene Parmesan said:

I think the committee should just take our word for it.

If any 3-loss team is gonna qualify for the CFB Playoff, it's gonna be UT - or Notre Dame.

This will make TV, advertisers, and sponsors very happy.

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Posted
Just now, DFW Horn said:

Meh...the Vegas odds are oftentimes skewed, too, based on preseason and early season rankings. 

Here is an example of what I'm talking about.  Kelly Ford which has dozens of weekly breakdowns based on both his own model and other stats and one of which is a "Schedule Difficulty" chart which is the # of expected wins the #12 Power Rated team would have against a given team's schedule.

So this chart breaks down aggregate win probabilities across the entire schedule for what would be the last team in if there was a playoff of top 12 teams by power rating.   Texas is 10th overall in schedule difficulty with 7.8 wins.   To put it in perspective, Tech is 58th at 9.6.  

Note Texas is the only team in playoff contention with a top 10 schedule difficulty based on this metric.  Doesn't that tell you something?  That if you consistently play games you are favored to win 3-7 points, you are much more likely to lose 1 or 2 compared to if you are playing regularly as a 20 point favorite? 

It's math.   Your schedule matters if you have a committee that is going to count losses.

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Alabama has almost the exact same resume as Texas (the loss at FSU has really aged poorly) except they played a shitty Wisconsin team at home and we played the defending champs on the road. 

 

But they only have one conference loss and we have 2 so...

Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Skipper said:

Here is an example of what I'm talking about.  Kelly Ford which has dozens of weekly breakdowns based on both his own model and other stats and one of which is a "Schedule Difficulty" chart which is the # of expected wins the #12 Power Rated team would have against a given team's schedule.

So this chart breaks down aggregate win probabilities across the entire schedule for what would be the last team in if there was a playoff of top 12 teams by power rating.   Texas is 10th overall in schedule difficulty with 7.8 wins.   To put it in perspective, Tech is 58th at 9.6.  

Note Texas is the only team in playoff contention with a top 10 schedule difficulty based on this metric.  Doesn't that tell you something?  That if you consistently play games you are favored to win 3-7 points, you are much more likely to lose 1 or 2 compared to if you are playing regularly as a 20 point favorite? 

It's math.   Your schedule matters if you have a committee that is going to count losses.

 

Thank you.

I'm unfamiliar with Ford's work. I'll have to start looking at it more closely when picking games ATS, since I'm right at a miserable 50% win/loss YTD.

Let's say the CFB Playoff expanded to 24 teams - which I agree with BTW. Why would Sankey be "dead set against the P4 leagues getting 4 auto-qualifiers", especially if the Big 12 and ACC teams' NIL collectives are making the requisite investment into their programs? That leaves 8 at-large opportunities for the SEC to sneak in a couple more teams. This would potentially be a net gain for the SEC, IMO.

 

Edited by DFW Horn
Wording
Posted (edited)

Texas needs to forget about the playoffs and beat the FUCK out of Aggy. 
 

 

Win by 35, let the chips fall where they may.

Edited by lilMAC25
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Posted
2 minutes ago, lilMAC25 said:

Texas needs to forget about the playoffs and beat the FUCK out of Aggy. 
 

 

Win by 35, let the chips fall where they may.

And then wait for the aggies to get steamrolled by 35 more in the SECCG

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Posted

Our biggest problem is that we've got too many 1 and 2-loss SEC teams in line ahead of us. Sure, you can argue we've played a more challenging schedule and that our resume is better, but.....

 

Posted
31 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

1. Just don't get blown out in November against UGA. Does that work for you?

2. "All of them" doesn't account for anything. Now you sound like aggy when the "SEC is the bestest" argument didn't work for us.

It was 14-10 in the 4th quarter despite a criminal amount of ref fuckery. Yes, the final scoreline was a blowout, but that's like saying we didnt easily beat Vandy just because they made it look close with some late scores and ref fuckery. The scoreline doesnt do the game justice in either case. 

2 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

And then wait for the aggies to get steamrolled by 35 more in the SECCG

Thy miss the SEC CCG if they lose to us. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Orange&White said:

And then wait for the aggies to get steamrolled by 35 more in the SECCG

If we beat aggy, they aren't making the SEC CCG unless Bama and Ole Miss also lose. aggy losing to us means they still get to host a home game. 

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Posted
Just now, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It was 14-10 in the 4th quarter despite a criminal amount of ref fuckery. Yes, the final scoreline was a blowout, but that's like saying we didnt easily beat Vandy just because they made it look close with some late scores and ref fuckery. The scoreline doesnt do the game justice in either case. 

Yeah, but most of the journalists and coaches who influence the polls and rankings aren't going to look at anything but the scores. Same as it ever was. Yes, I agree the Vandy game wasn't as close as the scoreboard.

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

If we beat aggy, they aren't making the SEC CCG unless Bama and Ole Miss also lose. aggy losing to us means they still get to host a home game. 

Their 1st Round opponent, in a perfect world, will be Texas Tech.

Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It was 14-10 in the 4th quarter despite a criminal amount of ref fuckery. Yes, the final scoreline was a blowout, but that's like saying we didnt easily beat Vandy just because they made it look close with some late scores and ref fuckery. The scoreline doesnt do the game justice in either case. 

They scored 40 seconds into the 4th quarter. Then they got 2 more TDs. It was a blow out. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It was 14-10 in the 4th quarter despite a criminal amount of ref fuckery. Yes, the final scoreline was a blowout, but that's like saying we didnt easily beat Vandy just because they made it look close with some late scores and ref fuckery. The scoreline doesnt do the game justice in either case. 

Thy miss the SEC CCG if they lose to us. 

They still have a path even with the loss. It might not seem likely, but they do have a path. 

See DFW Horns post above

Posted
Your not saying anything about Bama does not mean they are not germane to the discussion. For your argument to  make sense logically bama has to be behind OU and therefore us but also ahead of Georgia, who must somehow also be ahead of us. You know, because of head to head
 
 

What do the Germans have to do with it?
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Posted
2 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Our biggest problem is that we've got too many 1 and 2-loss SEC teams in line ahead of us. Sure, you can argue we've played a more challenging schedule and that our resume is better, but.....

 

Texas is going over a 2 loss Utah. Miami isnt gonna make it unless they win the conference. SC is a non factor. Michigan will lose to OSU. Vandy will lose to Tenn (and shouldnt be ahead of us anyways if we beat aggy). If OU or Bama slip up, it will be a beauty contest between 2 loss BYU and 3 loss Texas, if we get left out over those Mormon clowns who lost the only two real games they play all year against TTU. Then we absofuckinglutely should cancel all preseason games against OSU/ND and the likes. No point to play them. 

Posted
1 minute ago, mdmost said:

They scored 40 seconds into the 4th quarter. Then they got 2 more TDs. It was a blow out. 

The onside kick changed the game. Credit to UGA, but there is a reason they went for that. That was their way out of a dogfight. Same reason Kirby went for it twice on 4th down in the preceding series. The game was close. They made the plays that counted. Let's not act like we were outclassed and got blown off the field. We got outcoached. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Yeah, but most of the journalists and coaches who influence the polls and rankings aren't going to look at anything but the scores. Same as it ever was. Yes, I agree the Vandy game wasn't as close as the scoreboard.

Their 1st Round opponent, in a perfect world, will be Texas Tech.

I think they are getting the bye regardless. I think they end up the 4 seed with a loss to Texas. UGA ends up as the 2 seed, OSU 1 seed, IU as the 3 seed, and Aggy 4, Tech 5. 

Posted
29 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

What Vegas metrics are you recommending for determining the Top 12 FBS teams to qualify for the CFB Playoffs?

It was a joke based on the "who would be favored".  then you said something about odds being skewed due to preseason rankings or something which doesn't mean anything at the end of the season on who would be favored.

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Posted
11 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

It was 14-10 in the 4th quarter despite a criminal amount of ref fuckery. Yes, the final scoreline was a blowout, but that's like saying we didnt easily beat Vandy just because they made it look close with some late scores and ref fuckery. The scoreline doesnt do the game justice in either case. 

Thy miss the SEC CCG if they lose to us. 

Even at 14-10 that game was never close. We were non competitive for all but about 5 mins of that game. It was a beatdown 

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Posted
7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The onside kick changed the game. Credit to UGA, but there is a reason they went for that. That was their way out of a dogfight. Same reason Kirby went for it twice on 4th down in the preceding series. The game was close. They made the plays that counted. Let's not act like we were outclassed and got blown off the field. We got outcoached. 

We were outclassed in every phase of the game. 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

I think they are getting the bye regardless. I think they end up the 4 seed with a loss to Texas. UGA ends up as the 2 seed, OSU 1 seed, IU as the 3 seed, and Aggy 4, Tech 5. 

IDGAF about playoff seedings for aggy or anybody else if UT doesn't qualify.

I'll watch fun/interesting match-ups, like aggy vs Tech. Otherwise, I'm playing golf or watching college basketball. 

Posted (edited)

 

23 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

Kelly Ford has us as #15 in his latest "most deserving" CFB Playoff rankings today.

 

good stuff.  this includes scoring margin and Tech is still only 10(BYU at 6 is funny too) and why Indiana is number one with a SOS in the 50's.

still ranked in order of losses for SEC and Big Ten.

Edited by dcar00
Posted
2 hours ago, Had Enough said:

We have played and competed against more high level teams than anyone.  We’ve also done it on the road or at a neutral site as much as anyone.  

3 of our 4 road games in the SEC were against teams that will be a combined 5-19.

At the end of the 4th quarter we had a lead in 0 of those games. 

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Posted
26 minutes ago, DFW Horn said:

 

 

This is essentially his attempt at a poll or committee based approach and then he says he would adjust for head to head.  I still think he weights losses a bit too heavily for my preferred approach but haven't dove into this model in detail.  He has all kinds of interesting stuff though that is fun to follow over the season.

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Posted
23 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

We were outclassed in every phase of the game. 

there wasn't a second in that game where i thought texas would win.  a lot of that is because i know who the coach is.

Posted
53 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

We were outclassed in every phase of the game. 

 

28 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

there wasn't a second in that game where i thought texas would win.  a lot of that is because i know who the coach is.

There have been two halves against actual competition where i was impressed.  Vandy first half and ou second half. Dont really care about shsu and sjsu games

1 hour ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

The onside kick changed the game. Credit to UGA, but there is a reason they went for that. That was their way out of a dogfight. Same reason Kirby went for it twice on 4th down in the preceding series. The game was close. They made the plays that counted. Let's not act like we were outclassed and got blown off the field. We got outcoached. 

I hope the committee takes that into account.  “Texas is so good they made Kirby panic and do an onside kick”

Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, Im_smarter_then_you said:

 

There have been two halves against actual competition where i was impressed.  Vandy first half and ou second half. Dont really care about shsu and sjsu games

I hope the committee takes that into account.  “Texas is so good they made Kirby panic and do an onside kick”

You know what I hope the committee takes into account. And this is dependent on how the season shakes out, but that we were 2-2 against CFP teams (playing the most CFP teams in the country and having the most wins against CFP teams in the country). That the two losses we had were road losses to the Big 10 champion (overall #1 seed) and the SEC champion (overall #2). That we voluntarily scheduled the defending national champion on the road, while teams like BYU were playing power houses Portland State and Stanford. That we beat another fringe playoff team in Vanderbilt. That we had the #3 SOS in the country. 

 

You all can be doomers and say we shouldve beaten Florida or whatever but every team is flawed at the fringe level of making/missing the playoffs. It's about properly weighing the pros and cons of each team and predicting their potential success in the playoff. Texas will have two skins on the wall and a close showing against OSU that proves they can compete against CFP teams. BYU will have been beaten twice by the only team they played with a pulse. We dont need another handout like we did for SMU last year when they got absolutely dogwalked by an overrated PSU squad. Pick the best teams, period. 

Edited by The_Great_Hornsby
Posted
5 hours ago, Slacks said:

Y'all some hoes.

I would have asked to play Ohio State, Michigan, Oregon, Oklahoma, ND, Miami, ASU, Indiana, Bama, UGA, LSU, A&M.

Give me the best teams of last year and a couple of rivals. 

F all that, "Waaaa... they didn't play tough teams and we did...waaaaa.. my peepee hurts..." 

F that. Anybody, Anywhere, Any time. 

85 Bears can fuck around and find out. 

 

We had a playoff game against Florida and lost. We had playoff game against Ohio State and lost. We had a playoff game against UGA and got our lunch money and girlfriend taken. 

We already played in the playoffs and got eliminated. 

F this thread. Win the next game.

Then you'd never ever see any Texas team in the playoffs again. 

Your logic is, pardon my French,  fucking retarded. 

You know when I want to see the team play those teams?

In the fucking playoffs. 

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