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Meanwhile, what’s Peron up to?

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Well - this is a bit of a different one. I spent most of last week with a team of NATO officers (OF3-5) and civilian experts gaming out a fictional invasion scenario as they tested new command concepts and approaches. Today, I give you a bit of a look at how that played out, asking why militaries wargame, what happened with this one, and what I took from it. Next episode we'll pivot to the other aspect of this event which was focused on tech, innovation and lessons learned from Ukraine - but for now, let's talk about the latest Donovian invasion of OTSO.

 

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Posted

 Russia bombs kindergarten in Kharkiv, Ukraine says

“These strikes are Russia’s spit in the face of anyone who insists on a peaceful solution,” rages Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

 

October 22, 2025 11:49 am CET

KYIV — Russian forces struck a kindergarten in Kharkiv with killer drones on Wednesday morning, according to top Ukrainian officials.

“There was a direct hit on a private kindergarten in the Kholodnoyarkiy district of Kharkiv. A fire started,” Kharkiv Mayor Ihor Terekhov said in a statement.

Officials added later that one person, an adult male, had died in the kindergarten strike, and all 48 children were distressed — though none were wounded — and had been evacuated from the site.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said seven people were injured in the nursery strike, which triggered a fresh wave of fury at Moscow.

“They are receiving medical care. All children have been evacuated and are in shelters. According to preliminary information, many have an acute stress reaction,” Zelenskyy said on social media.

“There is and cannot be any justification for a drone strike on a kindergarten. Russia is becoming more impudent. These strikes are Russia’s spit in the face of anyone who insists on a peaceful solution. Bandits and terrorists can only be put in their place by force,” Zelenskyy said.

The Russian defense ministry has not yet issued a statements about strikes on Kharkiv.

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Posted

Ukraine war briefing: Storm Shadow missiles ‘hit gunpowder plant in Russia’

Russians confirm attack on Bryansk region home to explosives factory; Trump-Putin talks shelved, US diplomacy ‘going in circles’. What we know on day 1,337

 

  • Storm Shadow missiles struck a Russian chemical plant making gunpowder, explosives and rocket fuel in the Bryansk region, Ukraine’s military said late on Tuesday. The French-British missiles are also known as Scalp. “A massive combined missile and airstrike was carried out, including with air-launched Storm Shadow missiles that penetrated Russia’s air defence system,” said Ukraine’s armed forces general staff. Alexander Bogomaz, the governor of Bryansk region, said on Tuesday afternoon that Ukraine attacked the region with drones and missiles. The Russian defence ministry also confirmed an attack.

  • Russian strikes on Kyiv killed at least two people, the head of the city’s military administration, Tymur Tkachenko, said on Wednesday. The attacks sparked fires and shattered windows in several districts, mayor Vitali Klitschko said. Other city officials reported a large drone attack followed the strikes. Other areas being hit included Zaporizhzhia, Dnipro, and the city of Izmail, a port on the Danube river.

  • Plans for a summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Budapest have been shelved, Dan Sabbagh reports, after an apparently unproductive phone call between Marco Rubio and Sergei Lavrov. Their call also led to the cancellation of a meeting planned in Hungary’s capital for this Thursday between Rubio, Donald Trump’s secretary of state, and Lavrov, Vladimir Putin’s foreign minister. A senior European diplomat told Reuters the Russians “haven’t at all changed” their maximalist position of Ukraine giving up the entire Donbas region. “And I assume Lavrov gave the same spiel, and Rubio was like: ‘See you later’.” Another European diplomat thought that “it became evident for the Americans that there will be no deal for Trump in Budapest”.

  • Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Russia “almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy” once US Tomahawk missiles for Ukraine were no longer an immediate prospect. The Ukrainian president continued: “The greater the Ukrainian long-range capability, the greater the Russian willingness to end the war … As soon as the issue of long-range [capability] became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia almost automatically became less interested in diplomacy.”

  • The diplomatic efforts centred around Trump were “going in circles” and felt as if they were being dragged out, a senior Ukrainian official told Agence France-Presse. While varying from day to day, Trump’s most recent stance is that the war should be halted along the current frontline without Ukraine making territorial concessions.

  • European diplomats meanwhile said countries were working with Ukraine on a new proposal for a ceasefire along current battle lines. One told Reuters the proposal included a reference to a peace board that would be chaired by Trump, while another said it would be modelled on the US 20-point plan on Gaza. Some 35 allies of Ukraine will meet on Friday in London for a summit among countries willing to provide long-term support to Kyiv.

  • The European work on a peace proposal seems at least partly calculated to simply keep Washington engaged with helping Ukraine by giving Trump and the US an important role, rather than produce a deal both sides would actually accept. For example, a proposal to siphon off some of Russia’s frozen assets to fund a portion of reparations payments to Ukraine “would be a non-starter for Russia”, one diplomat said.

  • Russian attacks killed four people and left hundreds of thousands without power and many without water in Ukraine’s Chernihiv region on Tuesday. The energy ministry said the regional capital, Chernihiv city, and the northern part of the province lost all electricity supply after strikes on power facilities. By the afternoon, Reuters reporters in Chernihiv saw that power supply was back in some places. A daytime attack by about 20 Russian kamikaze drones killed four civilians and wounded at least seven more including a 10-year-old child in the town of Novhorod-Siverskyi, local officials said.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Orange&White said:

Daylight drone strikes and now purchasing more helicopters is a pretty good sign that Russia now has zero air defense outside of Moscow.

Hitting that tower 1,200 km deep is the kind of accuracy the Pentagon would be proud of and would be bragging about.

Pretty wild to see it in broad daylight, and you know that stuff is circulating on Russian social media.

 

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Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, PTINS said:

 

image.png.8397aa1cfe79510e5b890994e4fc833f.png

  The Smolensk Nuclear Power Plant is the biggest power generating station in the north-western region of the united energy system of Russia. Smolensk NPP has an outer appearance similar to that of Chernobyl NPP units 3-4, as both are later generation RBMKs. (Hint: Smolensk does not have a Sarcophagus over one of the reactors.)

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The three RBMK-1000 reactors of Smolensk NPP were commissioned in 1982-1990 (First Criticality for each unit Unit 1: September 10, 1982; Unit 2: April 9, 1985; Unit 3: December 29, 1989, with grid connection shortly thereafter).[4]

The reactors of Smolensk NPP are the improved versions of RBMK with a number of innovative safety systems

As you would expect, there is a very large substation near the plant, less than 1/2 mile from the reactor buildings, separated by a water canal. 

Ukraine looks like they are dialed in to the point they can hit specific towers.  But Ukraine needs to stay the fuck away from the nukes!!!  I know I joked about "Aim small. miss small" and "This man can hit us any time he wants", but damn.

Zelensky showing off his big brass balls to "the Donald."

Hmmm? Is that why Trump doesn't like Zelensky? Trump can't take Zelensky balls deep like he can Putin.

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FYI, most refineries generate their own power for a couple of reasons; they need the low pressure steam and waste heat in the process areas to heat the bottom of the towers, and more important, generated power is more reliable than purchased power. 

The refinery I'm at uses power generated offsite. We have boilers to produce our own steam.

Edited by Schulz2.0
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Bevo said:


 

image.gif.8ded076e389f57e8be958f121e5f8561.gif

 

As a former nuclear operator, I do laugh at a nuclear plant being critical being portrayed as a disaster situation.

Edited by Schulz2.0
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Posted
2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

As a former nuclear operator, I do laugh at a nuclear plant being critical being portrayed as a disaster situation.

Also, containment vessels are woke.

Posted
On 10/21/2025 at 10:26 AM, Brisketexan said:

A smart man doesn't limits his options.

image.png.3edbead16a003abb92d9dddc4d9d69e0.png

 

5 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS holy shit video of them hitting a tower of some sort at a refinery in broad daylight 

 

 

The Makhachkala Refinery is located on the Caspian Sea, which is landlocked, and looks to be primarily for making fuel and loading  the Caspian waterborne traffic, like a big gas station. The capacity is ~ 20,000 BPD, well below the top 25 refineries over 100,000 BPD, averaging ~ 220,000 BPD. (I didn't know it even existed.)

However, it is unique in being situated on the Caspian; there does not appear to be any similar facility on the Caspian anywhere else, including Russia and Iran. If Makhachkata is offline, the gas station is closed, and you'll have to find your products elsewhere.

Iran was probably getting refined oil products from Russia, but those may have been been curtailed in recent months. Not sure what else Russia can give to Iran that has any value (food?), or that Russia doesn't need (weapons). They damn sure don't need crude oil. 

It is noteworthy that Ukraine is getting towards the bottom of the list for refinery targets. It has to be comforting to shoot at targets with a heat signature that can be seen from space. 

2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The refinery I'm at uses power generated offsite. We have boilers to produce our own steam.

Most of the refineries and almost all of the gas plants I've been to were in remote locations, as stand alone facilities. 

Most US gas processing plants migrated to purchase power to facilitate environmental permitting and compliance with regulations,  and limiting their emissions as much as practical.

If you don't mind, where is your facility? No company name, please.

 

 

 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, PTINS said:

image.png.3edbead16a003abb92d9dddc4d9d69e0.png

 

The Makhachkala Refinery is located on the Caspian Sea, which is landlocked, and looks to be primarily for making fuel and loading  the Caspian waterborne traffic, like a big gas station. The capacity is ~ 20,000 BPD, well below the top 25 refineries over 100,000 BPD, averaging ~ 220,000 BPD. (I didn't know it even existed.)

However, it is unique in being situated on the Caspian; there does not appear to be any similar facility on the Caspian anywhere else, including Russia and Iran. If Makhachkata is offline, the gas station is closed, and you'll have to find your products elsewhere.

Iran was probably getting refined oil products from Russia, but those may have been been curtailed in recent months. Not sure what else Russia can give to Iran that has any value (food?), or that Russia doesn't need (weapons). They damn sure don't need crude oil. 

It is noteworthy that Ukraine is getting towards the bottom of the list for refinery targets. It has to be comforting to shoot at targets with a heat signature that can be seen from space. 

Most of the refineries and almost all of the gas plants I've been to were in remote locations, as stand alone facilities. 

Most US gas processing plants migrated to purchase power to facilitate environmental permitting and compliance with regulations,  and limiting their emissions as much as practical.

If you don't mind, where is your facility? No company name, please.

 

 

 

Denver

Posted
14 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Also, containment vessels are woke.

Critical merely means you're creating self-sustaining fission. Prompt critical or super critical are the bad ones.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Critical merely means you're creating self-sustaining fission. Prompt critical or super critical are the bad ones.

Yup.  I worked at the Hanford #2 plant in Washington State - and then the Waterford #3 startup in Taft, Louisiana from 1980-1986 pre-law school.  BWR and PWR, respectively.   

IMG_1685.jpeg.d77fe34d9e07633550f226ac8fe21884.jpeg

Gata in the containment vessel circa ‘83-‘84.   120 degrees of fun wearing hazmat stuff.   A couple layers of booties and gloves wrapped at ankles and wrists with duct tape.  

I think I see my alarming dosimeter in case I lingered too long by some boron management pipes.   And as far as I can remember, the craziest sons of a bitches I ever partied with were the fuel pool divers.   Highest paid cats too. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, PTINS said:

It is noteworthy that Ukraine is getting towards the bottom of the list for refinery targets. It has to be comforting to shoot at targets with a heat signature that can be seen from space. 

It would be really interesting to see kind of a time lapse display of everything they’ve hit over the last three months, to see if they appear to be trying to put pressure on certain regions or cause some kind of cascading effect. 

I also suspect that since they seem to be doing more hits in broad daylight, that they’ve got eyes on these targets, specifically the air defenses. Or that they know the state of Russian air defenses as a whole, and they know how many are being used in Moscow or Saint Petersburg and along the Kerch Bridge and other high value targets. Then they can extrapolate out what areas have no protection.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It would be really interesting to see kind of a time lapse display of everything they’ve hit over the last three months, to see if they appear to be trying to put pressure on certain regions or cause some kind of cascading effect. 

I also suspect that since they seem to be doing more hits in broad daylight, that they’ve got eyes on these targets, specifically the air defenses. Or that they know the state of Russian air defenses as a whole, and they know how many are being used in Moscow or Saint Petersburg and along the Kerch Bridge and other high value targets. Then they can extrapolate out what areas have no protection.  

"G'head keep all those AA batteries around the Kerch Bridge.  We don't mind."  

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Posted
9 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Saw something that Ukraine will be buying over 100 fighters from Saab going forward.  Can’t blame them, the Swedes are much more reliable than us.  

To be fair, the Gripen is probably more in line with what Ukraine needs. 

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Posted

Putting an already deeply in debt Gazprom further in debt is a good thing.  As a state controlled entity, Putin has to go to the state rainy day fund to keep propping it up, money that can’t be spent on the war. 

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Posted
48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Saw something that Ukraine will be buying over 100 fighters from Saab going forward.  Can’t blame them, the Swedes are much more reliable than us.  

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Posted
7 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

 

I am shocked that Ukraine successfully using long range missiles to hit Russian refineries has led to Trump now allowing the use of long range missiles to hit Russian refineries.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I am shocked that Ukraine successfully using long range missiles to hit Russian refineries has led to Trump now allowing the use of long range missiles to hit Russian refineries.

IMG_0783.thumb.jpeg.cddc7055f710c8d4966b95cf60bd5417.jpeg

Paging @Armybrat - you may want to give ol' Gator some tech support here...

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Posted
19 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Paging @Armybrat - you may want to give ol' Gator some tech support here...

And yet, there’s at least a 50-50 chance he will chicken out again after another Putin phone call.

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Posted

Petrotel refinery blast

Two major oil refineries in Eastern Europe — one in Romania and another in Hungary — were hit by powerful explosions late on October 20, raising concerns across the region. Both facilities are connected to Russian oil companies or rely heavily on Russian crude imports, putting the incidents under close international scrutiny.

The explosions occurred almost simultaneously at the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Ploiesti, Romania, and the Danube Refinery in Százhalombatta, Hungary, according to local media reports. Authorities in both countries have begun investigations, but as of now, the causes remain unclear.

Blast at Romania’s Petrotel-Lukoil Refinery
The first explosion took place around midday at the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery, located in the southern Romanian city of Ploiesti. The facility is owned by a subsidiary of Lukoil, one of Russia’s largest private oil and gas companies.

Reports from Romanian media indicate that the refinery had been offline since October 17 for a scheduled technical inspection. Despite this, a blast occurred while limited maintenance work was underway.

Emergency services quickly arrived on site, and firefighters managed to prevent the blaze from spreading to nearby structures. One 57-year-old worker sustained serious head and leg injuries and was immediately taken to intensive care.

Local authorities have not ruled out any possible cause, including human error, technical malfunction, or deliberate sabotage. Given recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, security analysts say investigators are likely examining all scenarios.

Massive blaze engulfs Saratov refinery after claimed Ukrainian drone strike rocks Russia’s energy core

The Petrotel facility is significant because it refines Russian crude oil that enters Romania through Black Sea shipping routes. Even after the European Union’s sanctions on Russian energy, Romania remains one of several EU members still processing Russian-linked petroleum products due to transitional exemptions.

Fire Erupts at Hungary’s Danube Refinery
A few hours later, a second explosion struck the Danube Refinery in Százhalombatta, about 27 kilometers (17 miles) southwest of Budapest. The plant is Hungary’s largest oil-processing facility and is operated by the MOL Group, a leading Hungarian oil company.

According to the Hungarian news outlet Telex, the explosion triggered a large fire visible from nearby towns. Residents reported hearing loud booms followed by columns of smoke rising into the night sky. Firefighters battled the flames for several hours and finally contained the blaze by the morning of October 21.

Fortunately, there were no fatalities or serious injuries reported. MOL stated that all staff were safely evacuated and that emergency systems worked as intended.

The refinery is considered Hungary’s most advanced in terms of oil refining capacity and plays a key role in fuel distribution across Central Europe. It receives much of its crude oil through the Druzhba (Friendship) Pipeline, which connects Hungary directly to Russian supply lines.

Telex reported that “special maintenance work” was being conducted at the plant on the night of the fire, although official company statements said no open-flame operations, such as welding, were taking place.

Ukraine’s refinery strikes ripple through global markets turning India into unexpected energy winner

One of the refinery’s most critical units — a distillation tower used to separate oil components — may have been affected. Industry analyst Tamas Pletser explained that if the tower was not damaged, repairs could take a few weeks, but if it was, restoration could last up to a year.

Authorities have sealed off the area, and an official technical investigation is underway to determine what caused the explosion.

Regional Impact and Broader Context
The timing of the incidents drew attention because they occurred just hours before Russia’s Novokuibyshevsk oil refinery, located in the Volga region, also halted operations after a reported drone strike, according to Reuters. That Russian facility is part of the Rosneft Samara refinery group, which includes several key plants supplying domestic and export markets.

Although Ukraine has not commented on the refinery explosions in Romania or Hungary, nor on the Russian refinery attack, the events have reignited discussion about the vulnerability of Europe’s energy network.

Both the Romanian and Hungarian refineries have direct or indirect ties to Russian energy infrastructure — a sensitive issue as the European Union continues to push for energy independence from Moscow following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The Petrotel-Lukoil plant in Romania has faced previous scrutiny for its ownership links, while the Danube Refinery’s reliance on the Druzhba pipeline makes it a crucial but risky asset for Hungary, which remains one of the EU countries most dependent on Russian oil.

The dual incidents also underscore how industrial safety, energy politics, and regional security are increasingly intertwined. Investigators in both nations have stressed that no official cause has been confirmed, but they are exploring every possibility, from mechanical faults to external interference.

For now, local officials in both Romania and Hungary have assured citizens that there is no environmental risk and that fuel supplies remain stable. Still, the explosions have disrupted refinery operations and prompted heightened vigilance across the region.

Precision drone attack turns Volgograd oil refinery into towering fireball

The coming days will be crucial as authorities assess the extent of the damage and resume production at the affected sites. Until then, both countries remain on alert, as investigators work to determine whether the near-simultaneous explosions were coincidental industrial accidents — or something far more complex.

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Posted

Two explosions at the exact same time in two different countries in facilities that both process Russian oil?? Who could it have been? I guess the mystery will never be solved??

I thought the KGB was supposed to be good?

Posted

Vice Adm Vladimir Tsimlyansky, deputy chief of Russian General Staff's Main Organizational-Mobilization Directorate, indicated Russia will use a new draft law for "special musters" of citizens in the active reserve to protect critical infrastructure & other important sites from Ukrainian UAVs.

He pointed to recent experience in which some Russian enterprises were protected by mobile fire teams composed of reservists from those companies. He insisted the reservists will serve only in their home regions and won't be sent to Ukraine.

----

Employees with fucking rifles and shotguns.

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Posted
6 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

I won’t get my hopes up but this news appears much better than I feared following the reports of another shouting match between Trump and Zelensky. 

Posted (edited)

The sanctions on the oil majors are really big.  They aren’t going to completely suffocate Rosneft and Lukoil (the two largest Russian oil companies) but they will make buying Russian oil harder and more expensive; and Russia will have to eat that cost because India and China won’t. More importantly it’s a signal that we have lost patience and a cue for the more aggressive Europeans to move out on other options— Russian sovereign assets scheme? It tells the Hungarians and the Slovaks that they can’t cover their bullshit with MAGA.  Don’t get twisted, this is the most significant U.S. move taken against Russia in the sanctions space. 
 

The messaging of “ceasefire now” is good, as good as it can get. It’s the formulation the Russians have really been resisting. 
 

And it bears repeating: this could have been done earlier.  Biden could have done it. Nonsensical to wait this long. Bessent is quietly a really strong Ukraine ally navigating a minefield around this. In this case- credit to him. 

Edited by 956 Worldwide
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Posted
2 hours ago, B00M said:

I won’t get my hopes up but this news appears much better than I feared following the reports of another shouting match between Trump and Zelensky. 

This is the 2nd or 3rd time Putin has made Trump look like an idiot in front of the world in the past few months, and Trump is desperately wanting that label of "deal maker" and "peace maker" and Putin keeps nabbing it out from under him.  I think the sanctions might stick.

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Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

This is the 2nd or 3rd time Putin has made Trump look like an idiot in front of the world in the past few months, and Trump is desperately wanting that label of "deal maker" and "peace maker" and Putin keeps nabbing it out from under him.  I think the sanctions might stick.

And Trump keeps saying he is going to solve his 9th war. He cannot lose face. This is about ego, not lives. 

 

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