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Lots of talk that 2026 is the year for real economic trouble in Russia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/12/22/russia-war-economy-ukraine/

https://archive.is/IGy2l

Russia’s economy keeps driving its war, but it could break in 2026

A woman walks out of an office of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, in Moscow on Dec. 5. (Ramil Sitdikov/Reuters)

Even based on the official data, one Kremlin-linked think tank, the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, said this month that Russia could face a systemic banking crisis by October if problem loans continue to rise and depositors start withdrawing funds en masse.

Russia had also heavily relied on taxing its biggest energy giants to help fund its war machine. But this month, Putin extended tax breaks to Russia’s two biggest energy majors, Gazprom, the state gas monopoly, and Rosneft, the Kremlin oil champion, which have both faced growing financial pressures.Ask The Post AIDive deeper

Once the cash cow of the Russian economy, Gazprom racked up a net loss of $12.9 billion last year, according to Russian accounting standards, the result of losing its main market in Europe since the beginning of the war. It has burned through its cash reserves, which in early 2022 stood at $27 billion and now total only $6 billion to $8 billion, while it also appears to have added more than $20 billion in additional debt.

The Russian oil industry is also facing a growing crunch. Even before the new blocking sanctions were imposed, Rosneft reported a 70 percent drop in its net profit to $3.6 billion for the first three quarters of this year compared with the previous year as oil prices fall. Across the oil sector, a combination of ever tougher sanctions cutting off much needed equipment and limiting options for selling crude is forcing many companies to focus only on extracting oil from the most accessible wells — and could force them to shut down others.

“There are only so many buyers with an appetite for sanctioned oil,” Kennedy explained. “When you do the numbers, it looks like somewhere between 1.6 million and 2.8 million barrels per day will get stranded without firm demand. At the moment, a lot of unsold oil is being stored on the water in tankers.”

Wider woes

Russia’s economic troubles are starting to seep through to the wider population. Consumers have started tightening their belts, according to a recent report by Russian state bank Sberbank, cutting spending on clothing by 8.7 percent at the beginning of December compared with the previous year, on household goods by 8.8 percent and on health and beauty by 5.9 percent.

High interest rates and lower revenue have left companies in crisis across the country — and many pass their problems onto workers, either by furloughing staff, cutting their work hours or simply failing to pay their wages.

In Nizhny Tagil, dozens of shift workers clad in orange hard hats at Novoleks copper mining and processing plant recorded a video this month complaining that they had not been paid in two months. Izvestia newspaper reported dozens of similar cases involving at least 34 companies.

5f0b6924a9a8235d3eda1c16d0cbd414afc242a4

People rest at a Christmas fair in Moscow on Dec. 3. (Alexander Zemlianichenko/AP)

According to Russia’s statistical agency, Rosstat, in October the total of unpaid wages had almost tripled year-on-year, reaching more than $27 million, with more than 26,000 complaints to Russia’s labor agency this year.

Last month, 300 workers building a nuclear reactor in the Ulyanovsk region went on strike, complaining they had not been paid for two months.

“There’s absolutely no way for people to pay their loans anymore. A lot of debt has piled up,” said a worker spokesman standing with dozens of others in a video message to Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Russian Investigative Committee. “The living conditions at the site where we work are also terrible. The toilets are overflowing and not being emptied.”

Russia’s Kuzbass coal mining region is one of the hardest hit, where 18 of the region’s 151 coal companies have ceased operations and another 30 are in critical condition, according to regional governor Ilya Seredyuk. Likewise, Russia’s metallurgy sector is in decline, despite high demand from military production plants.

Despite the growing difficulties facing the population, few in Moscow’s elite expect the economic woes to translate into social unrest, or that it will make any difference to Putin’s calculus.

“The growth of economic problems won’t lead to social or political problems. But next year will be the first difficult year of the military operation,” said a Russian academic close to senior diplomats.

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  • AUS-97HORN
    AUS-97HORN

    For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

  • Im_smarter_then_you
    Im_smarter_then_you

  • InkaUtexas
    InkaUtexas

    I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

Posted Images

59 minutes ago, HuttNuts said:

G9RUuS5XcAA5n9s.jpeg

This is going to end badly isn’t it…. I think we might get another yelling at when Zelensky won’t accept Putin, I mean Trumps terms.

22 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

This is going to end badly isn’t it…. I think we might get another yelling at when Zelensky won’t accept Putin, I mean Trumps terms.

anyone know what time they open up for the press?

Not sure why it won't embed, but Trump has some positive things to say about Zelenzky. What's not so encouraging is that Putin gets to bookend the meeting. Hopefully there will be a European followup as well.

https://x.com/OstapYarysh/status/2005351234413211766?s=20

Trump: This gentleman (Zelenskyy) has worked very hard, he's very brave, and his people are very brave. Very rarely has a nation ever had to go through this. We're gonna have a very good meeting today, I think. And I'm also calling President Putin back after the meeting, and we'll continue the negotiation

4 hours ago, KYHorn said:

Lots of talk that 2026 is the year for real economic trouble in Russia.

I can believe it. All of the refinery/oil&gas stuff that Ukraine has been hitting will start to really come into play in the coming months as they start dipping into cash reserves. They've bottled up Russia's Black Sea fleet, and Russia is not able to fully replenish their battlefield losses. We already see their troops going to battle without body armor and helmets, and they are using horses to get into battle.

There is a tipping point, and we may have already passed it by and not realized it since this stuff happens slowly and then suddenly.

Been playing alot of civ 7 lately and Im in a conflict similar to this in the game. Got invaded by a numerically superior force, but was able to hold them off due to terrain advantages and technically superior units. These didpshits have cavalry and sail ships, while I have tanks and battleships.

I'll be in their capitol in a few turns.

9 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

Been playing alot of civ 7 lately and Im in a conflict similar to this in the game. Got invaded by a numerically superior force, but was able to hold them off due to terrain advantages and technically superior units. These didpshits have cavalry and sail ships, while I have tanks and battleships.

I'll be in their capitol in a few turns.

Screenshots or did not happen.

42 minutes ago, MissingInAction said:

20251228_185150.jpg

I need that game. Civ 3 got me through my Afghan years.

3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

I need that game. Civ 3 got me through my Afghan years.

It's $70 on steam last I checked, but you need some serious hardware to play it properly.

Edited by MissingInAction

G9Sf0GLXkAEAsYw?format=jpg&name=medium

from WarTranslated Twitter account.

chris farley what the fuck GIF

There’s nothing fucking shameful about Americans dying for Ukraine.

Where is an alligator when you most need one?

14 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Where is an alligator when you most need one?

Is that Egyptian shark still around? In Jaws 4, Jaws traveled over 3,000 miles to continue its vendetta against the Brody family. The Egyptian shark attack was 2 1/2 years ago. Get over there and earn your NAFO hat.

Fuck it, a Manta taking him out is good enough for me. Come on nature. You can be scary.

3 hours ago, Colonel Sanders said:

Is that Egyptian shark still around? In Jaws 4, Jaws traveled over 3,000 miles to continue its vendetta against the Brody family. The Egyptian shark attack was 2 1/2 years ago. Get over there and earn your NAFO hat.

Screenshot_20251229-102754.png

20 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Dan Marino Holy Shit GIF

Trump doesn't even know when he's being played.

What a cocksucking moron

G9XetgJWEAA9D3Q?format=png&name=900x900

Meanwhile, Putin doing Putin things. Who knows what this is meant to cover up

Reuters report that Putin has signed a law that officially allows Russia to ignore rulings of foreign and international courts. The new legislative act stipulates that decisions of foreign courts vested with criminal jurisdiction are no longer enforceable on the territory of Russia if the cases were considered without the participation of official representatives of the Russian Federation.

Reuters
No image preview

Putin amends law to let Russia ignore foreign criminal co...

The move appears to be a response to several initiatives to go after Russian officials and military officers for alleged war crimes in Ukraine, something Moscow denies its forces are guilty of.

Stop fucking believing everything Putin says.

What The Hell Wtf GIF

Putin’s aide Ushakov stated that during a conversation with Trump, Putin complained about an alleged Ukrainian attack on his residence. According to Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov, Trump was "shocked" by what he heard, and Russia may now reconsider agreements reached earlier.

However, there are discrepancies regarding the drone attack, as Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that 89 UAVs were shot down over Russian territory on the night of December 29.

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c62n922dnw7o

image.png

Russia's losses in Ukraine rise faster than ever as US pushes for peace deal

16 hours ago

Olga IvshinaBBC News Russian

ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images A burial site of Russian soldiers killed during the country's war in Ukraine, in the rural Volga region of Kostroma, 300kms from the Russian capital of Moscow.ANDREY BORODULIN/AFP via Getty Images

BBC News Russian counts Moscow's war losses using official reports, newspapers, social media, and new memorials and graves

Over the past 10 months, Russian losses in the war with Ukraine have been growing faster than any time since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, BBC analysis suggests.

As peace efforts intensified in 2025 under pressure from US President Donald Trump's administration, 40% more obituaries of soldiers were published in Russian sources compared with the previous year.

Overall, the BBC has confirmed the names of almost 160,000 people killed fighting on Russia's side in Ukraine.

BBC News Russian has been counting Russian war losses together with independent outlet Mediazona and a group of volunteers since February 2022. We keep a list of named individuals whose deaths we were able to confirm using official reports, newspapers, social media, and new memorials and graves.

The real death toll is believed to be much higher, and military experts we have consulted believe our analysis of cemeteries, war memorials and obituaries might represent 45-65% of the total.

That would put the number of Russian deaths at between 243,000 and 352,000.

The number of obituaries for any given period is a preliminary estimate of the confirmed losses, as some need additional verification and will eventually be discarded. But it can indicate how the intensity of fighting is changing over time.

2025 starts with a relatively low number of published obituaries in January, compared with the previous months. Then the number rises in February, when Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin talked directly for the first time about ending the war in Ukraine.

The next peak in August coincides with the two presidents meeting each other in Alaska, a diplomatic coup for Putin that was widely seen as an end to his international isolation.

In October, when a planned second Russia-US summit was eventually shelved, and then in November, when the US presented a 28-point peace proposal, an average of 322 obituaries were published per day - twice the average in 2024.

It is difficult to put increased Russian losses down to any one factor, but the Kremlin sees territorial gains as a way of influencing negotiations with the US in its favour: Putin aide Yuri Ushakov stressed recently that "recent successes" had had a positive impact.

Murat Mukashev was among those who gambled on a quick peace deal, and it cost him his life.

Mukashev was an activist who had never supported Putin's policies.

Over the years, he had taken part in demonstrations against police violence and torture, and joined rallies for LGBT rights and the release of Alexei Navalny, the Kremlin's main opponent who died in prison in 2024.

He had repeatedly condemned Russia's invasion of Ukraine on social media from 2022. Then, in early 2024, Mukashev was detained near his home in Moscow and charged with large-scale drug dealing.

While his case was being tried he was offered a contract with the defence ministry, according to his friends and family.

They saw the heavy charges levelled against him as a typical ploy to get people to sign up. A 2024 law allows the accused a way out of a criminal conviction if they join up - an attractive option in a country with an acquittal rate of less than 1%.

Mukashev refused the offer, and the court sentenced him to 10 years in a high-security penal colony.

Murat Mukashev A young man holds a placard saying "stop the killers if they wear shoulder straps" as police escort him towards the cameraMurat Mukashev

Mukashev was never a Putin supporter and had protested against the war and police violence

In prison in November 2024, he changed his mind. Friends said he was encouraged by Trump's promises to end the war quickly and decided he needed to sign up as soon as possible to secure his release before a peace deal was reached.

"He saw this as a chance to be released instead of being imprisoned for 10 years of strict regime," reads a statement from his support group.

There was no explanation of how he reconciled taking part in the war with his reluctance to kill.

On June 11 2025, Mukashev died fighting as part of an assault squad in the Kharkiv region of north-eastern Ukraine.

Like him, the majority of Russians killed at the front in 2025 had nothing to do with the military at the start of the full-scale war, BBC figures show.

But since the bloody battle for the city of Avdiivka in October 2023, there has been a steady increase in casualties among so-called "volunteers" - those who have voluntarily signed a contract since the start of the invasion.

They now appear to form the majority of Russia's new recruits, as opposed to professional soldiers who joined the army before the invasion or those mobilised for military service afterwards.

A year ago 15% of Russian military deaths were volunteers, but in 2025 it was one in three.

Local governments, under pressure to maintain a constant flow of new recruits, advertise hefty pay-outs, meet people who have large debts and campaign in universities and colleges.

This means that the Kremlin has been able to compensate for heavy losses at the front while avoiding the politically risky move of a large-scale mandatory mobilisation.

By October, 336,000 people had signed up for the military this year, according to National Security Council deputy chief Dmitry Medvedev - well over 30,000 a month.

Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte has since said that 25,000 Russian soldiers are being killed every month. If both are right, Russia is still recruiting more soldiers than it is losing.

Based on obituaries and relatives' accounts, most of those who signed up to fight did so voluntarily; but there are reports of pressure and coercion, especially on regular conscripts and those charged with criminal offences.

Some recruits mistakenly believe that after they have signed up for a year they can return to their old life with money in their pockets.

A new recruit can earn up to 10m roubles (£95,000; $128,000) in a year. In reality all contracts signed with the defence ministry since September 2022 are automatically renewed until the war is over.

According to Nato, the total number of Russian dead and wounded in the war is 1.1 million, and one official has estimated there have been 250,000 fatalities.

This is in line with the BBC's calculations, although our list does not include those killed serving in the militia of two occupied regions in eastern Ukraine, which we estimate to be between 21,000 and 23,500 fighters.

Ukraine has also sustained heavy losses.

Last February, President Volodymyr Zelensky put the number of battlefield deaths at 46,000 and 380,000 others wounded.

Tens of thousands more were either missing in action or held captive, he added.

Based on other estimates and cross-referencing data, we believe the number of Ukrainians killed by now is as high as 140,000.

it's a good start but still an order of magnitude below what we need.

1 hour ago, Parliament said:

it's a good start but still an order of magnitude below what we need.

They haven’t been able to keep pace with replacements, and that never ends well. It may even be a reason why the two major cities they claimed to have taken were not in fact taken.

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

They haven’t been able to keep pace with replacements, and that never ends well. It may even be a reason why the two major cities they claimed to have taken were not in fact taken.

Fair. But am I allowed to want them all dead?

ETA

Maybe it's the drugs, but I feel optimistic about 2026.

Edited by Parliament

16 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Stop fucking believing everything Putin says.

What The Hell Wtf GIF

Putin’s aide Ushakov stated that during a conversation with Trump, Putin complained about an alleged Ukrainian attack on his residence. According to Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov, Trump was "shocked" by what he heard, and Russia may now reconsider agreements reached earlier.

However, there are discrepancies regarding the drone attack, as Russia’s Ministry of Defense reported that 89 UAVs were shot down over Russian territory on the night of December 29.

The proper from response from our dear leader should have been: "stop complaining, you're at war, you want the alleged attacks on your residence to stop, issue a ceasefire and end the war. You are indiscriminately bombing civilian targets and you expect Kiev to temper itself?"

2 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

The proper from response from our dear leader should have been: "stop complaining, you're at war, you want the alleged attacks on your residence to stop, issue a ceasefire and end the war. You are indiscriminately bombing civilian targets and you expect Kiev to temper itself?"

maybe if he wasn't a completely-compromised moron

7 hours ago, Parliament said:

Fair. But am I allowed to want them all dead?

Yes

7 hours ago, Parliament said:

Maybe it's the drugs, but I feel optimistic about 2026.

So do I. Would have been great if they had more long-range stuff a year ago, but you go to war with the army you have or something, not the one you want.

I feel optimistic as well though. I didn't anticipate that the amount of Russian deaths/casualties would rise as fast as it did, but Putin was desperate to take some major towns ahead of "negotiations" and Russian soldiers paid dearly (as did some Russian generals apparently).

Time to dust off the parallels to Afghanistan, except Russia/Soviet Union was substantially larger manpower-wise in the 1980s, and has lost far more troops in the 2020s (crazy to think Afghanistan only cost them 15,000 - 25,000 deaths).

Edited by atomheartbevo

  • Popular Post

Don't know if this link will work - if it doesn't then I can post the whole interview. https://archive.is/PMdm1

The woman Putin tried – and failed – to break

Adrian Blomfield - Senior Foreign Correspondent

Maia Sandu is the Telegraph’s World Leader of the Year after defying the Kremlin to turn Moldova into Europe’s front line of democracy

Maia Sandu earns less than £1,000 a month as president of Moldova

In 2025, Vladimir Putin went to extraordinary lengths to crush Maia Sandu, Moldova’s president. In this David-and-Goliath struggle, there should have been only one winner.

Moldova is a poor country of just 2.4 million people, battered by an economic crisis sparked by the Ukraine war. The Kremlin funnelled a fortune into a campaign to unseat Sandu’s party in a parliamentary election that was arguably the world’s most consequential democratic contest of the year. Russia flooded the country with disinformation, fabricating claims that she was so devoted to “Western degeneracy” that she bought Sir Elton John’s sperm to give birth to a gay child.

Yet against the odds, Sandu prevailed, preventing her country from becoming an agent of Russian influence that would have threatened Ukraine and the rest of Europe. It is not hard to see why Moldovans kept the faith. Unlike her boorish, corruption-tainted predecessors, she is scrupulously abstemious, living in a small flat and flying with budget airlines on official business.

For her modesty, resolve and giant-slaying courage, she is a deserved inaugural winner of the title, Telegraph World Leader of the Year.

Below is an excerpt from the article:

Had she stumbled in this year’s poll, her role would have been reduced to symbolic meaninglessness, with a hostile pro-Russian government stripping her of meaningful power and threatening Moldova’s democratic future.

The consequences for Ukraine would have been grave, further isolating it among former Soviet states. Western intelligence suggests the Kremlin hoped a friendly government in Chisinau would permit it to deploy 10,000 troops to reinforce the Russian garrison in separatist Transnistria, a Moscow-backed region that broke away from Moldova and shares a long border with Ukraine. Such a move would have imperilled Odesa, Ukraine’s largest port and maritime lifeline.

“If Russia’s proxies had won, it would have meant that Russia would have run the country,” Ms Sandu says.

But the Russian subversion campaign, she insists, was not just about knocking Moldova off its pro-European path or even opening a back door to Ukraine. Putin’s ultimate aim, she believes, was to turn Moldova into a hybrid warfare laboratory, rehearsing tactics that would then be deployed to interfere in and manipulate elections across Europe, from Hungary to Britain.

“Moldova is one of the very few countries which has experienced the full range of Russia’s hybrid attack methods,” she says. “But the target is not Moldova. Moldova is just the testing ground. The target is Europe, and Europe should learn from us, from countries which are on the front line of the fight for democracy. Democracy on the continent is in danger.”

Edited by Bevo

Interesting reporting about a shadow tanker that was headed for Venezuela when it was intercepted by the US.

Crew Paints Russian Flag on Tanker Pursued by the U.S. Coast Guard

oil-tanker-seized-dec-2025-330.png

The crew of an oil tanker fleeing U.S. forces in the Atlantic Ocean recently painted a Russian flag on the side of the vessel, in an apparent attempt to claim Russian protection, two American officials said on Tuesday.

It’s the latest twist in a bizarre odyssey that began on Dec. 21 when the U.S. Coast Guard tried to intercept the ship, Bella 1, in the Caribbean Sea as it sailed toward Venezuela to pick up oil, putting it in the cross hairs of President Trump’s quasi-blockade of the Venezuelan government’s economic lifeline.

The Bella 1’s crew members have since painted a Russian flag on the tanker during the escape and are now claiming Russian status, according to the U.S. officials, who were briefed on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation.

The tanker has been under U.S. sanctions since last year for transporting Iranian oil, which federal authorities have said is sold to finance terrorism.

The ship also appears to have recently changed its course northwest, away from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly heading toward Greenland or Iceland, the officials said. It is not believed to be carrying cargo. The Bella 1’s location transponder has not been on since Dec. 17, meaning The New York Times has not been able to track the vessel as it flees from U.S. forces.

The ship also appears to have recently changed its course northwest, away from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly heading toward Greenland or Iceland, the officials said. It is not believed to be carrying cargo. The Bella 1’s location transponder has not been on since Dec. 17, meaning The New York Times has not been able to track the vessel as it flees from U.S. forces.

But boarding the fleeing Bella 1 would require a specialized boarding team capable of securing a moving vessel with a potentially hostile crew. It is unusual for civilian tankers to flee from such operations. The crews of two other tankers intercepted by U.S. forces near Venezuela this month both agreed to be boarded.

The officials said they had obtained a seizure warrant based on the vessel’s previous involvement in the Iranian oil trade. The Bella 1 is part of a so-called ghost fleet of tankers that move oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. Most of the Bella 1’s crew are from Russia, India and Ukraine, according to one of the officials.

The Coast Guard successfully boarded another tanker in the Caribbean earlier in the month, and the United States took possession of a third tanker on Dec. 10. It is now at a port in Texas. Federal officials say they are planning to seize more tankers involved in Venezuela’s oil trade, which provides the country with badly needed revenue.

The Treasury Department on Tuesday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and entities based in Venezuela and Iran for their involvement in producing and selling drones. Among those targeted is Empresa Aeronáutica Nacional and its chair, Jose Jesus Urdaneta Gonzalez, who the Treasury Department said has worked with the Venezuelan and Iranian armed forces to assemble drones in Venezuela.

“Treasury is holding Iran and Venezuela accountable for their aggressive and reckless proliferation of deadly weapons around the world,” John K. Hurley, the Treasury under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement. “We will continue to take swift action to deprive those who enable Iran’s military-industrial complex access to the U.S. financial system.”

The actions come days after the C.I.A. conducted a drone strike on a port facility in Venezuela amid a growing pressure campaign against the Maduro government. The strike is the first known American operation inside Venezuela, as the U.S. military strikes on boats it suspects of trafficking drugs have taken place in international waters.

The Venezuelan government has not commented on the recent attacks. But President Nicolás Maduro and military officials have projected a sense of heightened security in videos posted on social media on Tuesday.

Officials said mixed military-police units have been deployed across Zulia state and to protect energy infrastructure, including a petrochemical complex near Lake Maracaibo and a refining center on the Caribbean coast.

Mr. Maduro is working to counter the narrative from American officials that Venezuela is exporting an enormous amount of drugs to the United States. He said his country’s armed forces destroyed nine foreign drug-trafficking aircraft in a 24-hour period. Venezuelan military officials said operations in western border states have led to major drug seizures, the dismantling of clandestine camps, airstrips and vessels, as well as hundreds of arrests

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/us/politics/oil-tanker-venezuela-us-russia-bella-1.html

49 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

Interesting reporting about a shadow tanker that was headed for Venezuela when it was intercepted by the US.

Crew Paints Russian Flag on Tanker Pursued by the U.S. Coast Guard

oil-tanker-seized-dec-2025-330.png

The crew of an oil tanker fleeing U.S. forces in the Atlantic Ocean recently painted a Russian flag on the side of the vessel, in an apparent attempt to claim Russian protection, two American officials said on Tuesday.

It’s the latest twist in a bizarre odyssey that began on Dec. 21 when the U.S. Coast Guard tried to intercept the ship, Bella 1, in the Caribbean Sea as it sailed toward Venezuela to pick up oil, putting it in the cross hairs of President Trump’s quasi-blockade of the Venezuelan government’s economic lifeline.

The Bella 1’s crew members have since painted a Russian flag on the tanker during the escape and are now claiming Russian status, according to the U.S. officials, who were briefed on the matter and spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss a sensitive operation.

The tanker has been under U.S. sanctions since last year for transporting Iranian oil, which federal authorities have said is sold to finance terrorism.

The ship also appears to have recently changed its course northwest, away from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly heading toward Greenland or Iceland, the officials said. It is not believed to be carrying cargo. The Bella 1’s location transponder has not been on since Dec. 17, meaning The New York Times has not been able to track the vessel as it flees from U.S. forces.

The ship also appears to have recently changed its course northwest, away from the Mediterranean Sea, possibly heading toward Greenland or Iceland, the officials said. It is not believed to be carrying cargo. The Bella 1’s location transponder has not been on since Dec. 17, meaning The New York Times has not been able to track the vessel as it flees from U.S. forces.

But boarding the fleeing Bella 1 would require a specialized boarding team capable of securing a moving vessel with a potentially hostile crew. It is unusual for civilian tankers to flee from such operations. The crews of two other tankers intercepted by U.S. forces near Venezuela this month both agreed to be boarded.

The officials said they had obtained a seizure warrant based on the vessel’s previous involvement in the Iranian oil trade. The Bella 1 is part of a so-called ghost fleet of tankers that move oil from Russia, Iran and Venezuela in violation of sanctions imposed by the United States and other countries. Most of the Bella 1’s crew are from Russia, India and Ukraine, according to one of the officials.

The Coast Guard successfully boarded another tanker in the Caribbean earlier in the month, and the United States took possession of a third tanker on Dec. 10. It is now at a port in Texas. Federal officials say they are planning to seize more tankers involved in Venezuela’s oil trade, which provides the country with badly needed revenue.

The Treasury Department on Tuesday announced sanctions against 10 individuals and entities based in Venezuela and Iran for their involvement in producing and selling drones. Among those targeted is Empresa Aeronáutica Nacional and its chair, Jose Jesus Urdaneta Gonzalez, who the Treasury Department said has worked with the Venezuelan and Iranian armed forces to assemble drones in Venezuela.

“Treasury is holding Iran and Venezuela accountable for their aggressive and reckless proliferation of deadly weapons around the world,” John K. Hurley, the Treasury under secretary for terrorism and financial intelligence, said in a statement. “We will continue to take swift action to deprive those who enable Iran’s military-industrial complex access to the U.S. financial system.”

The actions come days after the C.I.A. conducted a drone strike on a port facility in Venezuela amid a growing pressure campaign against the Maduro government. The strike is the first known American operation inside Venezuela, as the U.S. military strikes on boats it suspects of trafficking drugs have taken place in international waters.

The Venezuelan government has not commented on the recent attacks. But President Nicolás Maduro and military officials have projected a sense of heightened security in videos posted on social media on Tuesday.

Officials said mixed military-police units have been deployed across Zulia state and to protect energy infrastructure, including a petrochemical complex near Lake Maracaibo and a refining center on the Caribbean coast.

Mr. Maduro is working to counter the narrative from American officials that Venezuela is exporting an enormous amount of drugs to the United States. He said his country’s armed forces destroyed nine foreign drug-trafficking aircraft in a 24-hour period. Venezuelan military officials said operations in western border states have led to major drug seizures, the dismantling of clandestine camps, airstrips and vessels, as well as hundreds of arrests

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/30/us/politics/oil-tanker-venezuela-us-russia-bella-1.html

That's like the scene out of Lord of War with Nic Cage

On 12/20/2025 at 11:36 PM, atomheartbevo said:

Thomas Massie files some good legislation, like the Epstein stuff.

And then he files legislation to pull us out of NATO: 

Fucking idiot doesn't realize that a huge part of why we have these alliances, and why we maintain such a large military is not because somebody is going to invade us from overseas - two oceans and nukes on subs, missiles, and aircraft, are a fairly good deterrent.

We do it because we want to project power around the globe, because we want markets around the world open to American companies, and we want access to resources in those foreign markets, whether they be oil or metals or whatever.  And if we don't, then we leave a vacuum that China will gladly fill, and that's not good for our economy. It's why England did it for years, why Spain and France did it.

I was reading this author named Barry Eisler, whose crime fiction I have been guardedly enjoying. https://barryeisler.substack.com/

He seems to be appropriately liberal, was a CIA agent for a while. Raises a few good points here and there. But he's a bit of a look and a disestablshmentarian.

But in one of his screeds, he did declare NATO expansion to be a legitimate and sufficient provocation to Russia, analogizing it to Russian behavior during the Missile Crisis.

Therefore, I had to consider that "talking point" rather seriously for the first time.

All of that assumes that dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact eliminated all threat to the tiny countries of Europe that have twice been subject to a continent-wide war in roughly the last century. It assumes that a non-communist Russia is no kind of threat. That might possibly have been true briefly at the end of the Soviet era, but was never realistic, as events of the last decade have shown. Putin is all-Soviet, all the time, minus the Comintern and Politburo.

Russia remains opposed to "the West," rather than being a part of it. Its western neighbors behave accordingly. It's not like NATO really represents an arms buildup or aggression, it's a defensive pact.

Edited by TwiceHorn

I was at a long time friends place this summer for a pool party for the kids. When it was over we sat around and solved the world's problems. Mostly inebriated.

He is a federal law enforcement agent that was part of the SS under GWB and Obama. He transitioned to some other agency I have never heard of after Obama. He has traveled the world and been to some of the worst places and seen the worst things. He is decidedly conservative in many ways. He is college educated. He hustles his ass off. He and his wife own a couple of businesses. They do well for themselves. Not someone I would have thought would have had educated opinions on the Ukraine given his upbringing. I also don't perceive him as someone that has time, these days (full time jobs, three significant side hustles, wife, 4 girls under the age of 16), to stay abreast of the nuance we consume in this thread.

At some point our conversation turned to Ukraine. He was adamant that the NATO expansion (or risk of NATO expansion) for Ukraine was a very considerable provocation for Russia. He waxed poetic on it for about 30 minutes. Based on years of traveling and working in the region and other insights from his time working for Presidents that had to deal with the region. I hadn't really encountered people in the wild who have a grasp on the region/war like those of us in this thread (of which I am at the bottom of the knowledge pool). I had plenty of points to assert - some of which resonated. But his general takeaway was - he couldn't fault Russia for going to war with Ukraine. While I disagreed with him then and now, I do think his arguments were compelling enough that I believe reasonable minds can differ on that. Was it a good idea? HELL NO. We both agreed.

16 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

The proper from response from our dear leader should have been: "stop complaining, you're at war, you want the alleged attacks on your residence to stop, issue a ceasefire and end the war. You are indiscriminately bombing civilian targets and you expect Kiev to temper itself?"

Also Putin, you're full of shit and I don't believe you.

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15 minutes ago, Dendox said:

At some point our conversation turned to Ukraine. He was adamant that the NATO expansion (or risk of NATO expansion) for Ukraine was a very considerable provocation for Russia. He waxed poetic on it for about 30 minutes. Based on years of traveling and working in the region and other insights from his time working for Presidents that had to deal with the region. I hadn't really encountered people in the wild who have a grasp on the region/war like those of us in this thread (of which I am at the bottom of the knowledge pool). I had plenty of points to assert - some of which resonated. But his general takeaway was - he couldn't fault Russia for going to war with Ukraine. While I disagreed with him then and now, I do think his arguments were compelling enough that I believe reasonable minds can differ on that. Was it a good idea? HELL NO. We both agreed.

He sounds like a solid guy but I would strongly disagree with him on NATO being a provocation to invade Ukraine. Obviously, Russia is against Ukraine joining NATO but not because they view NATO as the threat but because NATO prevents Russia from puppeting/annexing/whatever Ukraine. Same goes for the Baltics, Georgia, etc. We have several centuries of evidence on how Russia and Russians views Ukraine, only the last 30 years has NATO been relevant. In 2014 Ukraine was not close to becoming a NATO member, yet Russia invaded. The same in 2022. Would Russia have done anything different in Ukraine over the last 30 years if NATO disbanded at the end of the Cold War? If anything, they would have been more aggressive.

8 minutes ago, HuttNuts said:

Obviously, Russia is against Ukraine joining NATO but not because they view NATO as the threat but because NATO prevents Russia from puppeting/annexing/whatever Ukraine. Same goes for the Baltics, Georgia, etc.

This. Once you understand WHY NATO membership is a problem for Russia, it makes sense.

Russia does not oppose neighboring states joining NATO because those states might become a base of aggression against Russia.

Russia opposes neighboring states joining NATO because that prevents Russia from invading and annexing those states.

That's it. That's the whole thing. Stop overthinking it. Read even a short treatise on Russian history, and it's obvious.

Global oil markets are nearing a massive shock as the shadow fleet edges towards collapse.

With mounting pressure from US seizures, Ukrainian drone attacks, and European interdictions, the roughly 1,000-tanker-strong shadow fleet is in the crosshairs of...everybody. As ships are confiscated, disabled, or destroyed, the numbers stop making sense for captains to run the risk.

This could trigger a severe tanker shortage, driving oil prices up, and making it harder for sanctioned countries to export. We're not just looking at an immediate price spike; this will be a prolonged oil shock impacting everything from transport to production.

Ukraine claims to have damaged or destroyed a Russian Kilo-class submarine while in the port of Novorossiysk using a subsea drone.

If confirmed, Russia's last major naval base would be vulnerable to air, surface, and now subsea attacks...not a great look. Russia's Black Sea naval operations would likely collapse within a year.

But let's not overstate the power of the subsea drones. While they may be effective for anti-port applications like this one, they won't be replacing traditional naval warfare tools like torpedoes anytime soon.

1 minute ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

But let's not overstate the power of the subsea drones. While they may be effective for anti-port applications like this one, they won't be replacing traditional naval warfare tools like torpedoes anytime soon.

Not "anytime soon."

At the rate of military drone tech advancement due to ongoing intense warfare, "anytime soon" probably means "we're at least 18-24 months away from autonomous subsea drones wandering the seas, ready to take out any and all marine targets."

Remember how the world's military jaw dropped watching the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, when "kamikaze" drones took out all of Armenia's armor in mere days? And everyone thought "holy shit, warfare just changed?"

We are already FAR beyond that.....a mere five fucking years later.

Man's ability to innovate and advance the horrors of war is our greatest skill and gift. Do not underestimate it.

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Not "anytime soon."

At the rate of military drone tech advancement due to ongoing intense warfare, "anytime soon" probably means "we're at least 18-24 months away from autonomous subsea drones wandering the seas, ready to take out any and all marine targets."

Remember how the world's military jaw dropped watching the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, when "kamikaze" drones took out all of Armenia's armor in mere days? And everyone thought "holy shit, warfare just changed?"

We are already FAR beyond that.....a mere five fucking years later.

Man's ability to innovate and advance the horrors of war is our greatest skill and gift. Do not underestimate it.

Fuck your autonomous AI subsea drone

Gloire-4C-LEAD.jpg

1 hour ago, HuttNuts said:

He sounds like a solid guy but I would strongly disagree with him on NATO being a provocation to invade Ukraine. Obviously, Russia is against Ukraine joining NATO but not because they view NATO as the threat but because NATO prevents Russia from puppeting/annexing/whatever Ukraine. Same goes for the Baltics, Georgia, etc. We have several centuries of evidence on how Russia and Russians views Ukraine, only the last 30 years has NATO been relevant. In 2014 Ukraine was not close to becoming a NATO member, yet Russia invaded. The same in 2022. Would Russia have done anything different in Ukraine over the last 30 years if NATO disbanded at the end of the Cold War? If anything, they would have been more aggressive.

Deserves repeating: If Russia is surrounded by nations that hate them, maybe Russia is an asshole. They should work on that instead of sending an entire generation of young men into a meat grinder.

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Not "anytime soon."

At the rate of military drone tech advancement due to ongoing intense warfare, "anytime soon" probably means "we're at least 18-24 months away from autonomous subsea drones wandering the seas, ready to take out any and all marine targets."

Remember how the world's military jaw dropped watching the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020, when "kamikaze" drones took out all of Armenia's armor in mere days? And everyone thought "holy shit, warfare just changed?"

We are already FAR beyond that.....a mere five fucking years later.

Man's ability to innovate and advance the horrors of war is our greatest skill and gift. Do not underestimate it.

We can’t be far from this

image.jpeg

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