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13 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'd have to look at these two things as being connected and it's no bueno.   The Kakhovka dams up what amounts to the coolant reservoir for the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.  The Russians have been draining the reservoir and sending the fresh water to Crimea for months, so its already low.  

And the Russians have been the ones fucking around with the backup generators/power grid connections with the power plant - almost some kind of fucked up game of chicken where they were scaring the Ukrainians into thinking that they might cut the power plant off and then shut it down or whatever.

And given the Russian incompetence, who knows.

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2 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I've seen this picture dozens of times on this thread, but I only just now noticed that the alleged Nazi flag is, in fact, a fucking t-shirt.

I mean, that raises its own questions.  Like--I honestly think it'd be easier to find a Nazi flag than a t-shirt that is just a big swastika.  But you know--whatever works in a pinch.

Not to mention that the white circle behind the swastika is solid non-breathable ink. You'll sweat like you're wearing a rubber sheet. I mean, Nazis are supposed to at least be stylish.

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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And the Russians have been the ones fucking around with the backup generators/power grid connections with the power plant - almost some kind of fucked up game of chicken where they were scaring the Ukrainians into thinking that they might cut the power plant off and then shut it down or whatever.

And given the Russian incompetence, who knows.

That's the thing, I'm not sure I'm more concerned they'd do something deliberate or accidental.  If they attempted to do something deliberate my money would be on them screwing it up.

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5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

That's the thing, I'm not sure I'm more concerned they'd do something deliberate or accidental.  If they attempted to do something deliberate my money would be on them screwing it up.

You'd like to think that the troops they have around that plant are better than the conscripts that were in Siberia and not in the military a month ago, and that they'd have plenty of actual engineers/nuclear engineers around to make sure that things don't get out of hand.

But it's Russia. 

And if they bring in a bunch of untrained recently-mobilized, yeah, they aren't going to listen to some snooty engineers.

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27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And the Russians have been the ones fucking around with the backup generators/power grid connections with the power plant - almost some kind of fucked up game of chicken where they were scaring the Ukrainians into thinking that they might cut the power plant off and then shut it down or whatever.

And given the Russian incompetence, who knows.

Just to clarify, the 6 reactors there are not actually producing power, but they still need electricity and water. Nuclear power plants that have been in operation for a while need power and coolant for years after they're shutdown. Just part of dealing with the fission reaction. No reason to breathe a sigh of relief. The IAEA is panicked about the situation for good reason. 

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30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd like to think that the troops they have around that plant are better than the conscripts that were in Siberia and not in the military a month ago, and that they'd have plenty of actual engineers/nuclear engineers around to make sure that things don't get out of hand.

But it's Russia. 

You must remember that this is still the same brain trust that dug trenches at Chernobyl

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5 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Just to clarify, the 6 reactors there are not actually producing power, but they still need electricity and water. Nuclear power plants that have been in operation for a while need power and coolant for years after they're shutdown. Just part of dealing with the fission reaction. No reason to breathe a sigh of relief. The IAEA is panicked about the situation for good reason. 

Yeah, sorry for giving the wrong impression - I maybe wrong, but my worry is that when they fuck with cutting it off from the grid or messing with the generators, then they've removed an enormous safety backup (or two backups I guess).

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10 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Just to clarify, the 6 reactors there are not actually producing power, but they still need electricity and water. Nuclear power plants that have been in operation for a while need power and coolant for years after they're shutdown. Just part of dealing with the fission reaction. No reason to breathe a sigh of relief. The IAEA is panicked about the situation for good reason. 

Yep, the fuel still has to be cooled or a meltdown will happen.  This is a could become a very serious problem, and this time it would be six reactors, not one.  

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7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Unverified, interesting if true

 
5 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Iran cannot want some of what the west is dealing in this situation.  Nor do they really need to piss off the Israelis.  Bad things could happen.

It's odd, given that we know Iran has plenty of missiles of various ranges, and yet Russia is only buying certain things.  Either a financial problem or they really are worried that either US gives Ukraine ATACMS or somebody goes after Iran.

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

It's odd, given that we know Iran has plenty of missiles of various ranges, and yet Russia is only buying certain things.  Either a financial problem or they really are worried that either US gives Ukraine ATACMS or somebody goes after Iran.

Well, like I said it's unverified but I buy it as plausible.  My opinion alone, I think the Iranian leadership rather arrogantly thumbs it's nose at the west and particularly the US, so I doubt the threat of sanctions concerns them.  Russia, however would still then in theory showing some concern for our reaction which is interesting.  The arrogant part of the Iranian leadership decision is that the certainly seem to have plenty of internal problems to be dealing with right now, but adding to their international woes can't possibly be helping.  

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12 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Russia, however would still then in theory showing some concern for our reaction which is interesting.  The arrogant part of the Iranian leadership decision is that the certainly seem to have plenty of internal problems to be dealing with right now, but adding to their international woes can't possibly be helping.  

If Russia thinks we provide ATACMS if they buy Iranian missiles, then it's not worth the cost for them, given the damage they've already seen with regular missiles.  We would be enabling Ukraine to completely cut off Crimea from Russia proper, and we'd be putting all overland supply lines into Crimea under full GLMRS range.

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12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

If Russia thinks we provide ATACMS if they buy Iranian missiles, then it's not worth the cost for them, given the damage they've already seen with regular missiles.  We would be enabling Ukraine to completely cut off Crimea from Russia proper, and we'd be putting all overland supply lines into Crimea under full GLMRS range.

While that is unquestionably true, at least I would think that those in the know over there could read which way the wind is blowing and that it's inevitable now that the Ukrainians will have that ability without the ATACMS sooner rather than later.  At least my interpretation is that they are more concerned about escalation, which does actually show some level of sanity in the midst of all this insanity.   But then again, giving this group of numbnuts any sort of credit also seems silly.  

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9 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

While that is unquestionably true, at least I would think that those in the know over there could read which way the wind is blowing and that it's inevitable now that the Ukrainians will have that ability without the ATACMS sooner rather than later.  At least my interpretation is that they are more concerned about escalation, which does actually show some level of sanity in the midst of all this insanity.   But then again, giving this group of numbnuts any sort of credit also seems silly.  

They can't afford much more escalation before Crimea is completely jeopardized, and the upper leadership may realize that.

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Reminder about Shoigu's background, it just screams strategic military genius that can cope with a broken and corrupted military in the middle of a war that it's not doing too well in:

After graduating from School No. 1 of Kyzyl city in the Tuvan ASSR,[8] Shoigu studied at the Krasnoyarsk Polytechnic Institute. Shoigu graduated in 1977 with a degree in civil engineering.[9]

Shoigu worked in construction projects nationwide for the next decade, advancing from low levels to become an executive. In 1988, Shoigu became a minor functionary in the Abakan branch of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union, and then in the Komsomol for a few years. In 1990, Shoigu moved to Moscow from Siberia, and was appointed deputy chairman of the State Architecture and Construction Committee of the Russian Federation,[10] assisted by his father's connections. Future president Boris Yeltsin had held a similar position in the Construction Committee, and also come from a civil engineering and party background, and Shoigu thus gained Yeltsin's trust.[7]

In 1991, Yeltsin appointed him head of the newly established Russian Rescue Corps, responsible for the rescue and disaster response system. The Rescue Corps replaced the previous Soviet civil defense system and soon absorbed the 20,000-strong militarized Civil Defense Troops of the Ministry of Defense, with Shoigu being appointed chairman of the State Committee of the Russian Federation for Civil Defense, Emergency Situations, and Disaster Response. Civil Defense remained a quasi-military organization in continuation of Soviet practice and Shoigu was politically involved, such as an unsuccessful attempt to evacuate Russian-backed Afghan President Mohammad Najibullah in 1992 and the intended distribution of weapons from the Civil Defense stocks to Yeltsin supporters during the October 1993 coup. In keeping with the militarized nature of Russian civil defense, Shoigu received the rank of major general in 1993,[11]and was promoted swiftly to lieutenant general in 1995,[12] colonel general in 1998,[13] and to army general, in practice the highest Russian military rank, in 2003.[14] The committee was renamed the Ministry of Emergency Situations (MChS) in 1994, making Shoigu a government minister. He became popular because of his hands-on management style and high visibility during emergency situations, such as floods, earthquakes and acts of terrorism.[7] Under Shoigu, the responsibilities of the ministry were expanded to take over the Russian State Fire Service in 2002, making the MChS Russia's third-largest force structure.[15]

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10 minutes ago, Auto Driller said:

A sobering dose of reality on everyone’s favorite nightly TV show.

 

 

Interesting other aspect about this was that he said that the longer this goes on the further indebted to and behind China they will be.  He also seemed to be using whatever the Russian equivalent of quotation marks when he called China a partner.  He is of course right on both points, but I haven't seen anyone in Russia acknowledge that they are becoming China's junior partner (or bitch).  Considering that this is state run tv, either he's off script by a lot, or they are planting that seed to their people to prepare them for that reality.  

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

You'd like to think that the troops they have around that plant are better than the conscripts that were in Siberia and not in the military a month ago, and that they'd have plenty of actual engineers/nuclear engineers around to make sure that things don't get out of hand.

But it's Russia. 

And if they bring in a bunch of untrained recently-mobilized, yeah, they aren't going to listen to some snooty engineers.

Don’t you remember early in the invasion when the Russians took the Chernobyl nuclear plant and waste site.   Most of them had never heard of Chernobyl, and they set up camps in the “Red zone” which is still highly contaminated after being told not to by the Ukrainians who managed the site.   I think the estimate was a few hundred days before radiation poisoning killed them.

So assume the worst intentions with the worst execution.

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50 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

They legit used maps that were published prior to 1986 and had no idea of the containment area.

I met my 'Ukrainian brother' tonight in Dallas, an old colleague I've kept up with on LinkedIn, who now is the CEO of a Ukraine based software development firm. He's in town to prospect clients, but as a condition of his exit, he must return with an article of significant aid to his country.

I bought him a beef rib and beers from Terry Black's BBQ. We probably spent three hours catching up on life and the conflict he deals with on a daily basis. Fortunately, he and his family are safe in Lviv, but he did have to move from Kherson a year ago and his brother was left behind.

I'm gonna forget all the talking points and perspectives and some may come back to me. I gotta check on some things at home before I post, and he's inspired me to make a visit soon. If I do, I'm best to smuggle in any high dollar medical equipment needed on the front lines.

Anything further you want to add to that, I'd love to hear about it. Not trying to make you slave away at the typewriter for my amusement. But I'd love to get his perspective, or in any case your perspective on his perspective, lol. 

Thanks for sharing.

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3 hours ago, 686 said:

Filming summary executions / martyring warriors is really bad for PR. The Pulitzer photo of the South Vietnamese General executing the VC is one of the images that turned people against that war. The lack of blowback (and celebration to the contrary) for this makes Putin’s Russia appear to be an empathy-devoid dystopia.

RIP.

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There was a Julia Ioffe post in her twitter awhile back where she was asking her Jewish/Russian dad if the Ukrainians were going to hold hard feelings towards the Russians like the Jews remember the Nazis; and he said no, it will be more like the Jews remembering the Egyptians. This hate ain’t ever going away.

"...makes Putin’s Russia appear to be an empathy-devoid dystopia."

"appear"

"...he said no, it will be more like the Jews remembering the Egyptians."

Holy shit. What a line. Great delivery, too. I'm going to repeat that one a bunch. 

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4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Iran cannot want some of what the west is dealing in this situation.  Nor do they really need to piss off the Israelis.  Bad things could happen.

There's an Iran thread, so I won't go into it. But I don't think they're interested in actually calming down the Israelis. There's going to be another big air strike at some point. Assuming the Israeli pilots aren't boycotting. But another thread. 

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10 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Okay, back home and can try to gather thoughts on my conversation over dinner:

  • Zelenskyy was over his head when he first received Western intelligence on Russia's invasion plans.  I can understand how improbable it seemed to him at the time, but the perspective is he had warning and overlooked the threat for almost a year leading up to the Feb 24 strike.  
  • Poroshenko knew military conflict was inevitible and tried to coach on Russia's buildup as Zelenskyy took office
  • Yanukovich really set them back as a prospering nation attempting to disassociate from Russia
  • The average Ukrainian trusts nothing communicated from Russian sources-- it's usually false there's always an agenda behind a message
  • The average Ukrainian knows about the human atrocities taking place in the East, regardless of where they reside
  • The average Ukrainian also gives no fucks about changing their way of life with conflict raging around them-- there's a sort of bravado about standing their ground, and there's a quote from an old woman on national news who once stated, "we lost our roof, our running water, our gas, our electricity, but we have freedom"
  • The average Ukranian knows Russia is getting their shit pushed in on their territory and that they are running out of missles
  • Russia will run out of money before running out of men, and that spells the real trouble within.  Once the money dries up for military supply, for conscripts and for subsidies in the poorer oblasts, watch the discontept boil over
  • So much of Russia's somewhat-modern military capability was borne of Ukrainian engineering and supply, including some of the Sarmat programs.
  • My friend is involved with a Ukrainian Mil-Hacker group on Telegram.  This is a pretty tight knit group of around 200 volunteers, most with advanced software and IT infrastructure backgrounds.  Each day, the Telegram channel declares a 'challenge' on something related to the war, targeting Russia.  Many are coordinated DDoS attacks on Russia telecom networks, some are hyperlocal and target their military comms.  They're among the group responsible for halting Russian banks, breaking their postal and delivery services, and bringing down cellular networks
  • Russian expats in Europe are grating.  Most are still drinking the propaganda kool-aid and can be awful to deal with
  • Germany does have a Russian problem- Ukrainians are disgusted with Scholz and understand enough Russians fled to Germany that they don't have a handle on everyone with a visa
  • Poland is Ukraine's 'brother in arms,' and that anti-air coverage in Lviv is largely augmented by Polish missle systems
  • He believes internal political parity exists to counter Putin but none united and loud enough to overcome their state propaganda.  Ukrainians don't give any credit to Navalny, after his statements on Crimea (that Ukraine had little position over it any longer).  In Ukraine, Sergei Furgal's efforts are more admirable for his membership in the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and leading anti-establishment opposition in the far east.  Unfortunately, his influence isn't going to be noticed in the west aside from means to send him to trial in Moscow and lock him up, in which he's serving 22 years for a sham trial on a double-murder accusation.
  • Igor Girkin gets a free pass to talk shit about the MoD as he still carries FSB credibility
  • China is already bending Russia over in Siberia-- since 2019, there's a Chinese shadow logging industry operating mills in the region and and transporting lumber down the Trans-Siberian, but few are seeing any economic benefit from their rapid deforestation 

What were his thoughts on continued support by the US?

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4 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

They love our support and our way of life, but are taken aback by our internal political struggles and social issues which bubble up in the press.  He says that Ukrainians share an American ethos in that the people of a nation can put their differences aside to fight for their independence.

Pretty sure any American who visits Ukraine right now is treated as royalty

I forgot to mention, my friend is a couple years younger than me (guessing around 42) and does have a military 'slip,' issued by the government, whereby it's possible he could be called up for duty.  This hasn't happened though, as he doesn't have prior military service and his specialty is in IT, not in any fabrication or military hardware skill.  He said he's had colleagues who were once IoT engineers and are now providing service to the military by modifying civilian drones, so now I know how one of the radio contacts was hijacked to serve as a grenade-drop mechanism.

His travel to Dallas started by way of car to the Polish border checkpoint, where he has to declare what he's taking, what he's returning with, and when he's coming back.  Says their border guards are really picky over that kind of stuff as they're hesitant to let any able-bodied man leave the country.  He then flew from Warsaw to DFW via Atlanta.

In order to return to Ukraine in good-standing with his military slip, he has to bring back an item or donation of high value to the country.  He was last over here in December, when he returned with a Starlink terminal to donate.  This time, he's bringing a $2500 Butterfly mobile ultrasound device for the front lines. 

Good to know he still has faith in us - I do too. Polls are showing though that support is slipping. Let's just hope it holds so long as it's needed.

Personally, I only know one Ukrainian-American, a guy I used to work with back when Crimea was taken. His family moved to the states in the 90s, but he was absolutely passionate about the Ukrainian cause even when things looked like they might fall apart. Good guy.

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8 minutes ago, Gravy Train said:

Fortunately, I believe Congress has enough intel where our support will remain bipartisan, even if consituents from one party feel disillusioned over it.  Like most things, the White House and our Press could do a far better job underscoring our need to support our allies and stability in Europe.  I want to say the messaging could be better, but most of the opposition has failed to pick up a book or doesn't realize they're regugitating Russian-spiced agendas. 

Most of it is flat out pandering and opposition politics as far as I can determine. Americans have a natural propensity towards isolationism, and the people actively speaking against US support are directly appealing to that.

My favorites are those who have been all in in terms of supporting the Israelis (whom I support as well) who have been the biggest beneficiary by far of US foreign aid for 60 years, but when it comes to Ukraine it's "America First!" AIPAC is real. 

The thing is, foreign policy has rarely been the factor in US elections. People by and large simply don't give a shit. Even getting out of Afghanistan and Iraq weren't the number one determiners, although 1968 and the Vietnam War is the big exception. My guess is that whoever wins the Republican nomination in 2024 campaigns on the idea of better record management, no blank check, and using more of the funds being sent to Ukraine on projects at home. But like Nixon in '68, or frankly Obama in 2008, who ended up keeping Guatanamo open and never did pull the troops entirely out of Afghanistan, things can change once a person actually gets into office. But I know I'm voting for whoever indicates they're the most committed to Ukraine. I honestly don't care what their other positions are. Maybe the hard lifting part of the conflict is over by the time the election comes around? Ukraine will still need a massive amount of support, but maintaining a defensive position along a hostile border is different than trying to collapse layers of entrenched defensive lines. 

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6 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

Fortunately, I believe Congress has enough intel where our support will remain bipartisan, even if consituents from one party feel disillusioned over it.  Like most things, the White House and our Press could do a far better job underscoring our need to support our allies and stability in Europe.  I want to say the messaging could be better, but most of the opposition has failed to pick up a book or doesn't realize they're regugitating Russian-spiced agendas. 

I’ve seen just as many left leaning types getting pissy about the war as Tucker trogs.   Theyre getting angry about the MIC standing to make billions over a “war that does nothing for us”.   

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8 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

This last part is so stupid and incredibly infuriating. 

I am for supporting Ukraine, but it does take some thinking to understand how it impacts us. We don't need Ukranian O&G and grain. So, at a superficial level, the war doesn't impact us.

But... well we all know the rest... and I don't feel like rehashing what we all know.

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35 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Jdams are operational, so I do believe that is what we saw the other day.  They add a range of 80km, but I'm betting the crafty Ukrainians will figure a way to extend to them.

 

My assumption is you have to have quite a bit of altitude to get an 80Km glide out of a JDAM. They either feel like they've degraded Russia's Air defense enough to fly that high, or those are some brave fucking pilots. 

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