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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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2 hours ago, 686 said:

Putin threatening to nationalize defense companies if they don’t get the production up. Weird. I’m guessing just political posturing.
 

If he takes the companies away from a current oligarch, then he can give them to some future oligarch.  If Reuters is correct that Russia is running out of money, maybe this is a shake down of the oligarchs who own the companies - as well as a threat to increase production. 

Russian for “do something!”, but with the typical threat of bad stuff happening to you if you disobey the Tzar. 

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4 minutes ago, SquishMitten said:

I’d be equally concerned about the welding job. It might just vibrate itself off. I’m calling it Radical Larry henceforth. 

Well, we can all agree on one thing, we will see how it holds up being towed away by a Ukrainian farmer on a John Deere.  

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3 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

That is a completely dangerous and irresponsible take, in my opinion. 

There is no irreversible flow of history. Our hardware - our brain, nervous system, overall biological composition - is not changed easily. It has taken almost 4 billion years to get to this point, 300,000 years since the first appearance of homo sapiens, and probably only 30,000 to 40,000 years or so since homo sapiens became the sole dominant bipedal species on the planet. About 5000 years until the first written language. About 3000 years since the first history book. 

We will constantly look to form tribes, and then people will naturally form countervailing tribes. And then they will compete for hegemony. The only way to stop this is through severe repression and autocratic control of the population worldwide, and even then the same dynamic would occur in the ruling class. 

The good news is that on top of this hardware we have a unique and powerful "software" called socialization which allows us to consciously shape what kind of civilization we want to collectively live in. But it starts as a blank slate with each birth, and is incredibly fragile, since natural impulses will always exist which can contravene what we're trying to achieve consciously as a species. 

The war that goes on between those who would separate us based on race, language, sexual orientation, gender, religion, what have you, and battle for political supremacy will never end. Trump didn't exploit existing undercurrents in American society. He exploited natural divisions and impulses that exist within us on a genetic level formed over 4 billion years. And certainly since homo sapiens emerged as a species. That's not going away. The best we can do is to try to program our brains consciously to choose what divisions we prioritize and which ones we choose to be unimportant, but someone is always going to come along at some point to try to exploit the divisions they feel will give them power. That's our existence. 

The war in Ukraine is a simple battle between good and evil. On the good side you have a people who have fought for centuries to be out from under the Russian hegemony. Who have sacrificed a tremendous amount for the right to be run by a representative government. Who continue to bravely fight every day against a numerically far superior foe, who SHOULD have a distinct advantage in modern weaponry, but thankfully is systemically geared towards stupidity.

On the evil side you have a ruler who considers himself some kind of divine king, who views himself as not only the savior of Russia, but the savior of the west and all of mankind. He sees the existence of Ukraine as a historical mistake. He's said as much. He wants to eradicate the memory of the Ukrainian language and history from the face of the planet. He feels like the West is degenerate to the point of unsustainability. He sees the US and Europe as bringing about the downfall of humanity in many ways, with the only thing to save it himself and his fellow Russians. And he's convinced himself of this sheer bullshit, and surrounded himself with people who have drank the koolaid and/or are in the kitchen mixing up new even stronger batches. 

But there's no irreversible flow of history going on here. At some point another Putin type could rise up. Could be in Russia. Could be in China, or Japan. Could be in the US, or Germany. Could be in the Middle East, or India. We're hardwired this way as a species. This proclivity is what allowed homo sapiens to take over the planet in the first place, and it can't be erased. Maybe we're going to eventually Crispr ourselves into some kind of passive state, but any kind of significant genetic engineering in the future will produce unintended consequences which can't even begin to be speculated on. So that path has even more fear for me than the idea we're doomed to constantly produce megalomaniacs as a matter of course. 

The main point is, this never stops. Never. There's no ultimate kumbaya when Russia and Putin are ultimately defeated, and/or he's finally 6 feet under. We're Sisyphus pushing that rock up the mountain only to have it tumble to the bottom right before we reach the top. Democracy is fragile. Tolerance is fragile. Military strength is ephemeral. On a long enough time line it all turns to dust. But that's part of what makes this particular struggle so important. We have to get this right, so we can have a chance to get the next one right. If we get Ukraine wrong - which we're not going to, btw - then it empowers the nefarious forces to feel like this is when the socialization process leading to representative governments and greater tolerance for our fellow human beings gives in to entropy and the natural dialectics of our species to value homogeneity, might equals right, and autocratic, repressive rule with uncertain and risky transfers of power. Because honestly, that's the natural state of our species. 

In any case, I strongly disagree with Azamat Junisbai here. 

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4 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

If he takes the companies away from a current oligarch, then he can give them to some future oligarch.  If Reuters is correct that Russia is running out of money, maybe this is a shake down of the oligarchs who own the companies - as well as a threat to increase production. 

Russian for “do something!”, but with the typical threat of bad stuff happening to you if you disobey the Tzar. 

I'm sure they can recruit prisoners to work in the factories.

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3 hours ago, leaf said:

JDAM?

That would be my guess.  It's pretty clear the view we see is from a spotter.  I'm guessing they lased the target with a drone (perhaps the latest recon drones announced in the last week or so), had the spotter monitoring the result from quite a distance (5 to 6 miles I'm guessing, giving the sound traveling after the flash).  The shock wave was intense, I presume the distance was due for safety in that regard.  Who knows where that was from, but given the snow on the ground, if that was within the last few days I would guess its in the vicinity of Kreminna and the lines there.  I haven't seen anything that would look like jdam explosion prior to this, so that may well have been one of the first ones deployed.  Given that the spotter quite clearly knew exactly where to be looking and when, its says to me that this was all well coordinated.  Anyone in that trench was either vaporized or dead from shock-wave trauma pretty much instantly.   Frankly, potentially game changing footage.  

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10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Possible more jdam's or glsdbs 

And of course your daily reminder that the Russians have shit for brains

 

totally amazing how there are like 10 BMP carcasses all around 1 specific area.... and as soon as that one got to the largest concentration area... Boom.... followed by another boom. 

 

totally shocking that 1 spot goes boom.  I mean whudda guessed?

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7 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

totally amazing how there are like 10 BMP carcasses all around 1 specific area.... and as soon as that one got to the largest concentration area... Boom.... followed by another boom. 

 

totally shocking that 1 spot goes boom.  I mean whudda guessed?

Well it ain't exactly a bunch of guys showing up in a wooden horse.  

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Initially in WWII the Germans had 1,449 Panzer III tanks ready for combat, about 950 of which were versions equipped with the 50 mm L/42 gun, which constituted the Wehrmacht's main tank force.

Russia has likely lost more than 2,000 tanks in its war in Ukraine, more than half of its operational tank fleet, according to estimates released Wednesday from the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

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If he takes the companies away from a current oligarch, then he can give them to some future oligarch.  If Reuters is correct that Russia is running out of money, maybe this is a shake down of the oligarchs who own the companies - as well as a threat to increase production. 
Russian for “do something!”, but with the typical threat of bad stuff happening to you if you disobey the Tzar. 

To me it’s weird because:
A) nationalizing won’t increase production
B) nationalizing oligarch’s personal assets may actually get Putin killed
B) nationalizing doesn’t give him the ability to blame the oligarchs for everything
C) so if he does nationalize, when things are even worse a year from now, Putin’s fig leaf of plausible deniability will be even smaller and there will be less people to deflect blame to. Bad politik.
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13 minutes ago, AUS-97HORN said:

totally amazing how there are like 10 BMP carcasses all around 1 specific area.... and as soon as that one got to the largest concentration area... Boom.... followed by another boom. 

 

totally shocking that 1 spot goes boom.  I mean whudda guessed?

 

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1 hour ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

I've been thinking about this quote from Dr. Zhivago a lot over the last year  -

 

"Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: [narrating; on World War I] By the second winter, the boots had worn out... but the line still held. Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900-mile long front... as well our own cursed capacity for suffering. Half the men went into action without any arms... irregular rations... led by officers they didn't trust.

Officer: [to soldiers] Come on, you bastards!

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: And those they did trust...

Pasha: [leaps out of the trench and begins leading his men in a charge] Come on, Comrades! Forward, comrades! Earth-shakers!

[an artillery shell explodes in front of him; he falls to the ground, and the soldiers retreat to their trench]

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: Finally, when they could stand it no longer, they began doing what every army dreams of doing...

[the soldiers begin to leave their trenches]

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: They began to go home. That was the beginning of the Revolution."

 

That tweet about not having enough people survive to pass on lessons  reminds me of what happened to the officers, like Pasha,  that the men trusted in that quote.

I keep hoping the Russian soldiers will do what they did in WWI and say fuck this, kill any officers that try to stop them, and just go home.

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I've been thinking about this quote from Dr. Zhivago a lot over the last year  -
 
"Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: [narrating; on World War I] By the second winter, the boots had worn out... but the line still held. Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900-mile long front... as well our own cursed capacity for suffering. Half the men went into action without any arms... irregular rations... led by officers they didn't trust.
Officer: [to soldiers] Come on, you bastards!
Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: And those they did trust...
Pasha: [leaps out of the trench and begins leading his men in a charge] Come on, Comrades! Forward, comrades! Earth-shakers!
[an artillery shell explodes in front of him; he falls to the ground, and the soldiers retreat to their trench]
Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: Finally, when they could stand it no longer, they began doing what every army dreams of doing...
[the soldiers begin to leave their trenches]
Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: They began to go home. That was the beginning of the Revolution."
 
That tweet about not having enough people survive to pass on lessons  reminds me of what happened to the officers, like Pasha,  that the men trusted in that quote.
I keep hoping the Russian soldiers will do what they did in WWI and say fuck this, kill any officers that try to stop them, and just go home.

It would be among the smartest things a group of Russians has ever done.

In other words, impossible.
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19 minutes ago, Grande Mart said:

I've been thinking about this quote from Dr. Zhivago a lot over the last year  -

 

"Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: [narrating; on World War I] By the second winter, the boots had worn out... but the line still held. Even Comrade Lenin underestimated both the anguish of that 900-mile long front... as well our own cursed capacity for suffering. Half the men went into action without any arms... irregular rations... led by officers they didn't trust.

Officer: [to soldiers] Come on, you bastards!

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: And those they did trust...

Pasha: [leaps out of the trench and begins leading his men in a charge] Come on, Comrades! Forward, comrades! Earth-shakers!

[an artillery shell explodes in front of him; he falls to the ground, and the soldiers retreat to their trench]

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: Finally, when they could stand it no longer, they began doing what every army dreams of doing...

[the soldiers begin to leave their trenches]

Gen. Yevgraf Zhivago: They began to go home. That was the beginning of the Revolution."

 

That tweet about not having enough people survive to pass on lessons  reminds me of what happened to the officers, like Pasha,  that the men trusted in that quote.

I keep hoping the Russian soldiers will do what they did in WWI and say fuck this, kill any officers that try to stop them, and just go home.

This would be great, but I fear they would wonder directly back into the minefield.  They seem to have a certain magnetic attraction to it.  

Edited by BamaATL
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2 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Given that the spotter quite clearly knew exactly where to be looking and when, its says to me that this was all well coordinated.  Anyone in that trench was either vaporized or dead from shock-wave trauma pretty much instantly.   Frankly, potentially game changing footage.  

Or it was an ammo dump of sorts.  But yeah, the spotter clearly knew what was going to happen, or at least that something was going to happen.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Or it was an ammo dump of sorts.  But yeah, the spotter clearly knew what was going to happen, or at least that something was going to happen.

I don't think they would go to that sort of trouble for a run of the mill Himars strike on an ammo dump, my reasoning being that they have done so many strikes like that at this point, doing forward observation would seem unnecessary to me.  Deploying a new weapon system and going to that sort of trouble makes more sense.  Something else I noticed, is that I have been seen a lot more on air strike sorties coming from the Ukrainian side in the last few days.  Specific details are of course scant, but its the first I can recall them releasing this sort of info.  Perhaps a coincidence, or wishful thinking on my part, but I get the sense that this strike combined with those sorties being mentioned are related.  

That having been said, I have been wrong before, and I am sure that will continue.  

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Here's a terrific interview from a few days ago by billionaire Richard Branson interviewing Howard Buffett, Warren Buffett's oldest son (he has an older sister) talking about Buffett's philanthropic efforts in support of Ukraine. 

"...the other way everyone can help is to understand that as Ukraine goes, so goes Western democracies. Every democracy in the world needs to be very clearly working on the side of seeing Ukraine successfully defend itself and its freedom. There are no winners if Putin achieves his goals in Ukraine, and he will not stop at its borders. My message to every voter and taxpayer in a free country is the best way to help is to make sure your elected government – whether you live in Europe or North America or somewhere else – has the political will to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine defend itself and end the war."

https://www.virgin.com/virgin-unite/latest/richard-branson-and-howard-g-buffett-discuss-supporting-ukraine-and-the

Spoiler

Richard Branson and Howard G. Buffett discuss supporting Ukraine and the fight for global justice and democracy

Howard Buffett photographs the wall of a detention facility where Russian occupiers held some of the thousands of Ukrainian citizens imprisoned since the start of the war. Some were subjected to execution and others to various forms of torture.
Richard Branson by the sea on Necker Island, smiling at the camera
by Richard Branson
1 March 2023
 

Howard G. Buffett met with President Zelensky just months after war broke out in Ukraine. After witnessing the devastation and heartache caused by this unjust war, Buffett, chairman and CEO of The Howard G. Buffett Foundation, has donated millions to help support the people of Ukraine.

Richard Branson recently interviewed Howard, discussing the things he’s seen on recent visits to Ukraine, the work the foundation has invested in, and ways he and the foundation are working to support the fight for global justice, democracy, and the rule of law.


Richard Branson: I’ve been in awe of everything you’ve been doing on the ground in Ukraine – can you tell me how your commitment to Ukraine began and how it’s evolved since the start of the war?

Howard Buffett: Thank you, but I know you would agree that it’s the courage and resiliency of the Ukrainian people that is truly inspiring. They have defied the prediction of many so-called experts who said Russia would win this war and win it quickly.

When the war started last February, it was clear it would have dramatic consequences for two primary areas that our Foundation funds: global food security and conflict mitigation. After my first trip to Ukraine in April to get a sense for how we might provide funding support, we immediately decided to shift about half of our 2022 giving – nearly $150 million – to Ukraine for a wide range of humanitarian aid efforts; demining, war crimes investigations, support for farmers working to harvest crops, and grain purchases to ensure Ukrainian grain could continue to be exported to feed hungry people in Africa and the Middle East. The rationale for this was simple: we felt with more than 20 years’ experience working in these areas that we were the right Foundation to engage on this in a big way. I also recognised this is the single largest humanitarian crisis and conflict that has occurred in my lifetime.

For 2023, we plan to double our support to Ukraine because the cost of not doing everything humanly possible to help end this war and help Ukrainians survive the onslaught from Russia is just too high. We are continuing to provide immediate humanitarian support to frontline communities as they are liberated but we are also focusing on infrastructure projects that will address both short-term and long-term needs. We will also continue to support demining efforts – I don’t think most people appreciate that even if the war ends today, Ukraine will be demining for decades to come.

image3-caption.png?fl=progressive&q=80

Richard Branson: You’ve also personally travelled to Ukraine many times now, what are some of your reflections from these trips?

Howard Buffett: I’ve made five trips over the last year. It helps me to see things first-hand and build relationships with people on the ground who are implementing our projects. It’s the way I’ve always approached our grant making and because we focus on working in conflict and post-conflict areas it’s something I’m used to doing.

What I’ve seen also makes me work faster to get our funding where it needs to be. The scale of the destruction to mostly civilian areas is impossible for people outside of Ukraine to understand. It’s literally everywhere. It’s shocking to see how many schools, hospitals, churches, apartment buildings, grocery stores, power stations and gas stations have been shelled. Even places that haven’t been hit have been affected – one apartment building may suffer a direct hit but that explosion will also shatter all the windows in the apartment buildings nearby. Tens of thousands of people have been displaced, or worse, left to live in uninhabitable conditions in the middle of winter.

On my last trip I was on the front lines, including in Bakhmut. The villages in these front-line cities are razed to the ground and most people have left. What is left behind are mass graves, destruction, hidden land mines, Ukrainian military working to defend the country, and local police and civilian emergency service volunteers trying to help the population that remains while investigating a staggering number of war crimes perpetrated by the Russians in formerly occupied areas.

At the same time, I’ve met some of the bravest, most resilient, and generous people I’ve ever encountered. You look at the destruction and the death toll and you think, how can they possibly prevail? And then you meet individual soldiers, mothers, and children and you think, what more can I do to help them?

Richard Branson: Can you share more about where you’re focusing your support and why you’ve chosen those areas?

Howard Buffett: We started with things we understand well: support to farmers and then food assistance. Then as we spent more time on the ground understanding the needs of farmers and frontline communities, we started adding complementary projects. We added support for demining because it’s closely linked to agriculture – you cannot farm a field that has land mines. We have a school feeding project because it’s a priority of the First Lady and it’s something we have done in many countries around the world. We partnered with the World Food Programme on grain exports both to help Ukraine sell its grain stockpiles but also to mitigate the downstream consequences to countries dependent on that grain for food.

When we saw Russia targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, we worked to source and import more than 2,500 generators – in fact your team made an introduction that helped us source some of the biggest generators we purchased. The Ukrainian Railways has been incredibly innovative and resilient throughout the war, so we partnered with them to create 92 warming centers in rail stations where people can rest, warm up, recharge their phones, and get basic supplies, and we also funded the conversion of train cars into mobile kitchens to reach difficult locations. Finally, we recognised early on the need to hold Russia accountable for war crimes, so we funded two different groups doing that work so those investigations and evidence collection happens even as the war continues.

image1-caption.png?fl=progressive&q=80

Richard Branson: You’ve done amazing work to help the agriculture sector in Ukraine – can you share a bit more about what you’ve done and the impact?

Howard Buffett: I’ve farmed for 38 years, so knowing how much Ukraine exports in agriculture, my first thought when the war started was how are farmers, especially smaller farmers, going to get their crops harvested, especially when many are fighting on the front lines? So, we started with purchasing every combine and tractor we could find in Europe – including some that were originally destined for Russia. Then we sourced thousands of pounds of seeds so people could plant home gardens; thousands of ag bags so farmers had an easy way to add storage as the Black Sea blockade initially made exporting grain impossible and farmers were running out of storage. Eventually we created a program called “Victory Harvest” to coordinate all these activities. We basically built the plane as we were flying it, but I’m happy to say that our equipment harvested 70,000 acres of wheat, corn, and sunflowers that probably would have been left to rot in fields.

We also sourced equipment for spring planting and are looking at ways to support farmers with seeds and fertilizer. We have a program to make sure the equipment is maintained and repaired when needed. All of this was developed quickly because we knew the need was immediate – we weren’t sure any of it would work or if the equipment would get stolen or destroyed but those are the kinds of risks philanthropy must take in these situations if we want to have immediate impact. I would just add that all this support is targeted at smaller farmers who don’t qualify for the government-led support that is going to large farmers.

Richard Branson: You’ve also shined a spotlight on the brutal realities of this war on civilians – what would you like to share with the world from this important work?

Howard Buffett: “Brutal” and “real” are the right words. The trauma that is being inflicted on millions of Ukrainians who never asked for or wanted this war is staggering and will be felt for generations to come, even if the war ended today. It’s inescapable. It’s the displacement from their homes; it’s the separation from fathers and sons going off to war – many of whom will never come home; it’s the executions, rapes, torture, detentions, mass starvation, and threats of death from constant bombings or inability to access basic things like food, water, and heat in the areas Russia has occupied. One of the reasons our Foundation focuses on conflict mitigation is because no other human progress, no kind of development, is possible when people do not feel safe. I think what is so shocking is to see people who might as easily have been your neighbours back at home – accountants, bakers, mechanics, lawyers, farmers – have their lives completely upended in every way by this war.

Richard Branson: We’ve been so inspired with how you’ve worked with some great partners on the ground, like Andrey Stavnitser from Superhumans. Can you tell us a bit more about what they are doing, and any other partners you want to highlight?

Howard Buffett: I actually first learned about Superhumans from your team; then the First Lady introduced me to Andrey and the Superhumans team. They are building capacity to fit, and eventually manufacture, prosthetics for men, women, and children who have lost limbs. This will be a problem for many years even after active combat ends because of the proliferation of land mines. The demining process is painstaking – you have a country the size of Texas and every inch of it will have to be cleared to avoid future accidents. Until then, the regular bombing of civilian sites and of course active combat is creating a population in need of prosthetics. They chose the name “Superhumans” to emphasize the extraordinary feat of recovery rather than stigmatizing the loss of a limb. Two other partners we work closely with that I would highlight for different reasons: (1) the Bridgeway Foundation is another US donor we work closely with. Their CEO, Shannon Sedgwick Davis, has been invaluable to facilitating our engagement in Ukraine; and (2) Global Empowerment Mission (GEM) has done such a phenomenal job increasing their capacity to support recently liberated communities on the frontlines that we’re now just funding their entire Ukraine operations.

Richard Branson: Everyone I speak with wants to do something to help – how would you respond to this?

Howard Buffett: Ukraine needs every kind of help imaginable, so direct donations are always needed. Some great organisations we have worked with are the World Food Programme, Project Expedite Justice, and NovoUkraine. It’s also incredibly helpful when internationally recognized people like you visit and use your high profile to educate and advocate for support to Ukraine – thank you for that.

But the other way everyone can help is to understand that as Ukraine goes, so goes Western democracies. Every democracy in the world needs to be very clearly working on the side of seeing Ukraine successfully defend itself and its freedom. There are no winners if Putin achieves his goals in Ukraine, and he will not stop at its borders. My message to every voter and taxpayer in a free country is the best way to help is to make sure your elected government – whether you live in Europe or North America or somewhere else – has the political will to do whatever it takes to help Ukraine defend itself and end the war.

 

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26 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Those T62's have OEM armor and that's it.  So we're talking 3" of cast iron?  Will the Bradley gun be able to punch through that?

In reading some of the specs, these have side armor that's 15mm and roof armor that is 31mm thick.  I'd just as soon go into battle wearing my kitchen cooking equipment as that.  

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8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

In reading some of the specs, these have side armor that's 15mm and roof armor that is 31mm thick.  I'd just as soon go into battle wearing my kitchen cooking equipment as that.  

Give it time, we will see an orc wearing a colander at some point.

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