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Beto 2020


bad_teammate

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19 minutes ago, NowThis said:

yes, well known, but that hurt his cause. Should have run vs. Cornyn, btw, who is running? Fell 220k votes short vs. Cruz, even in a POTUS cycle, he still has a shot vs. Cornyn, or did. 

Gotta move on. Joaquin Castro or Sema or whoever else is going to need our support and the race is no less important for Beto's absence.

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Whoever the Dem's candidate for Senate in Texas is will have a better shot with Beto on the pres ticket than Beto would have had without Beto on that ticket. Don't know much about Sema. I googled her and all I found was a Crowdpac that identifies her as "Beto's primary opponent" who is taking on Cornyn. I like Joaquin Castro there, think Julian should have run for Senate. 

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1 hour ago, Bama Chick said:

lolgop

They skeeerd.
 

That GOP tweet just gained Beto thousands of votes, including some republicans. Bubba in Bama saw that and said, “sheet! I thought that Beto guy was a damn Mexican. You mean he’s a white drunk Irishman? Hell I’ll vote for that!”

 They are such dumbasses. 

Edited by JimmyJames
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Just now, bad_teammate said:

RichOldHammerheadshark-max-1mb.gif

Yeah, I regretted that one after posting. More likely isn't it was around a million or two and they figured it was better to report a later number. I don't think it says much about the viability of his campaign. Now that he's back on the campaign trail, the money will come. That's not going to be a problem. 

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Gushing praise from guy that prepped Cruz against Beto in the Senate race.
https://www.newsweek.com/beto-orourke-ted-cruz-presidential-elections-donald-trump-1365360
I don't think people realize what's coming with Beto. It's going to spread like wildfire. 


I read that this morning. He wasn’t liked bc of his phenom persona in media coverage he was well liked in Texas because people met the guy and heard him talk and they liked what he had to say and how he made them feel. He’s a progressive but he’s not going to alienate the middle or like the far left does. The guy will do very well in the grassroots campaigning required in Iowa and I think he’ll do well in NH and South Carolina. He takes Texas easily and then it’s game on. He will be one of the last three standing. Primarily bc he will out work everyone on the ground.
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1 minute ago, troph said:

 


I read that this morning. He wasn’t liked bc of his phenom persona in media coverage he was well liked in Texas because people met the guy and heard him talk and they liked what he had to say and how he made them feel. He’s a progressive but he’s not going to alienate the middle or like the far left does. The guy will do very well in the grassroots campaigning required in Iowa and I think he’ll do well in NH and South Carolina. He takes Texas easily and then it’s game on. He will be one of the last three standing. Primarily bc he will out work everyone on the ground.

 

Yeah, I that article got at some of that. Just realized Virginia is a Super Tuesday state and should be hostly contested with no Virginian running. Nice to have my vote and support matter again. 

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10 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Beto needs to stop spewing this horseshit gibberish. I want to take him seriously, but he will flop if he continues with this rhetoric.

 

Disagree.  I don't really believe that it's true, I'm not sure it will work, but if it did it could save the country.  I'm happy to burn his candidacy on the chance that there is a way to uniting the country.  I'm not ready to burn the country down.

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Strategically it will be a massive failure. And it’s just a stupid comment and makes me question if Beto fully understands the moment. It feels like clueless positivity more than language that will truly create meaningful change.

troph is right that no one will outwork Beto on the campaign trail. I respect the hell out of his efforts to meet/talk to as many people as he can. That alone makes him a really strong candidate.  Still waiting for the substance though.

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It’s a long season and Beto just announced last week. IMO, let him get his footing before discounting him or questioning his rollout. And as someone said, the money will come. There was obviously a reason he took his time before he announced. He knew this crap was going to start the second it happened. He’s still 1000 times better than that dumb butt in the WH right now.

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42 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Strategically it will be a massive failure. And it’s just a stupid comment and makes me question if Beto fully understands the moment. It feels like clueless positivity more than language that will truly create meaningful change.

troph is right that no one will outwork Beto on the campaign trail. I respect the hell out of his efforts to meet/talk to as many people as he can. That alone makes him a really strong candidate.  Still waiting for the substance though.

i'm not convinced that you're wrong, but that's just a thing that you're saying.  You believe it will be a massive failure because.... you think that people are beyond buying into a message of healing and unification?

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The criticism Beto gets for lack of policy is kind of funny in the grand scheme of things.  The media is trying real hard to make it matter, y’all are trying real hard to make it matter.

The reality is, it doesn’t matter.  This isn’t a competition of ideas, it’s a beauty contest.  Doesn’t make a difference if Beto wants open borders or to build a wall across Canada, he’s going to win over who he’s going to win over.  All the media can do is try to contain him. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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1 hour ago, Celery Man said:

i'm not convinced that you're wrong, but that's just a thing that you're saying.  You believe it will be a massive failure because.... you think that people are beyond buying into a message of healing and unification?

I think the key takeaway is this part, "It feels like clueless positivity more than language that will truly create meaningful change."

I think shallow messaging effectively sold can be effective in building a voting coalition and get a single candidate into office, but that's a very different thing than creating meaningful change or, more importantly, building a lasting movement.

There are important lessons to learn from the past. The obvious one to learn is Barack Obama, both because its fitting and also because it is on the top of people's minds (see Chuck Todd's questioning that upset Hugo so much).

So with Barack Obama we had...
- An inspirational figure whose soaring rhetoric about unifying a divided nation inspired many people
- Someone running after the end of a presidential term where the president was widely disliked
- The looming specter of financial collapse and unpopular war abroad

With Beto we have...
- An encouraging and likable figure whose soaring rhetoric about unifying a divided nation is inspiring some people
- Someone running after the end of a presidential term where the president was widely disliked
- The looming specter of environmental collapse and myriad domestic crises

Is that fair?

So we got Obama in office and we got some good things, but nothing that was really enduring beyond ACA, which is a system no one is happy with. Most of his accomplishments were executive authority that were destined to be swiped away by the next GOP president (DACA, etc...) because, as is very well documented, he did not create a sustained movement. 

--------------------
Edley echoed what many progressives were beginning to believe was possible with a President Obama: “There is a rare opportunity to have a citizen movement heading in the same progressive direction as an incumbent president.” According to his notes, the Silicon Valley luminaries on the call agreed. “Most felt it would be an unacceptable loss not to take advantage of the rare alignment of an incumbent President with a progressive agenda, and an online constituency of donors and supporters who can press for change against the inevitable upsurge of entrenched special interests which will resist it.”

As we now know, that grand vision for a postcampaign movement never came to fruition. Instead of mobilizing his unprecedented grassroots machine to pressure obstructionist lawmakers, support state and local candidates who shared his vision, and counter the Tea Party, Obama mothballed his campaign operation, bottling it up inside the Democratic National Committee. It was the seminal mistake of his presidency—one that set the tone for the next eight years of dashed hopes, and helped pave the way for Donald Trump to harness the pent-up demand for change Obama had unleashed.

“We lost this election eight years ago,” concludes Michael Slaby, the campaign’s chief technology officer. “Our party became a national movement focused on general elections, and we lost touch with nonurban, noncoastal communities. There is a straight line between our failure to address the culture and systemic failures of Washington and this election result.”
--------------------

Obama's army (Movement 2.0) was folded into the Democratic National Committee instead of being an autonomous progressive energy movement. It quickly lost fire and enthusiasm and died. A nationwide grassroots campaign of millions of motivated organizers was put under the auspices of people like Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and... well... we all saw how the Republicans took the House and Senate all throughout Obama's two terms. The Democratic Party killed it and focused ENTIRELY on re-electing Obama, which it successfully did at the expense of basically everything else.

"Thank you for getting me elected, now fuck off."

If Movement 2.0 had existed outside of the DNC's purview and was able to find, organize, united, promote, and fund progressive candidates outside of the DNC process we would've already had AOCs in the bullpen. Obama would either have kept Congress or at least had young, firebrand defenders in place to set the table for progress. Also, Movement 2.0 would've been exerting leftward pressure on Obama all throughout his 8 years, which was sorely missing.

And here's the thing: It's not about Republican/Democratic unity.

Unity is nice, but all it practically provides is the sufficient number of votes to solve problems. And it is those problems that create or exacerbate division.

So if Beto is going to get into office and "truly create meaningful change" then the movement has to be bigger than him. And that isn't just him saying it, he has to create a machine. It doesn't matter if he says, "We're building a grassroots campaign" if all he means is, "I'm going to personally get a lot of supporters and fundraise from them." He needs his own "Movement 2.0". He needs his own Our Revolution. And he needs those to exist independent of the DNC and push to enact and retain the necessary reforms he believes in.

And here's the bigger problem: Beto is no Barack Obama.

Barack Obama was a completely self-made black man who faced struggle and opposition his entire life and overcame it without wealth, power, or connections. He earned everything he had, broke racial barriers, and was an extremely impressive person basically from youth to the time he began to run for office. He was extremely intelligent and, even while there was politically-calculated shallowness to him, he understood the issues and movements far better than Beto has shown an ability to articulate.

So we are faced with a candidate who is LESS capable than the one who already failed to create sustained change and a sustained progressive movement.

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38 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The criticism Beto gets for lack of policy is kind of funny in the grand scheme of things.  The media is trying real hard to make it matter, y’all are trying real hard to make it matter.

The reality is, it doesn’t matter.  This isn’t a competition of ideas, it’s a beauty contest.  Doesn’t make a difference if Beto wants open borders or to build a wall across Canada, he’s going to win over who he’s going to win over.  All the media can do is try to contain him. 

God forbid we should have an educated electorate who vote on the issues.

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4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

God forbid we should have an educated electorate who vote on the issues.

I don't think anyone is against that idea.  Hugo is simply pointing out the majority of those voting are rubes, so it doesn't matter.  We should have learned that from the last election.  I like Beto's chances. 

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2 hours ago, Grandioso said:

Bad teammates chapo trap house purity Beto hate is exhausting.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

lol Chapo's power is controlling basically the entire media narrative.

three Brooklyn losers on a dirty couch are sabotaging my beautiful son!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

(I'm more of a Trillbilly guy, THANK YOU VERY MUCH)

Edited by bad_teammate
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48 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

I think the key takeaway is this part, "It feels like clueless positivity more than language that will truly create meaningful change."

I think shallow messaging effectively sold can be effective in building a voting coalition and get a single candidate into office, but that's a very different thing than creating meaningful change or, more importantly, building a lasting movement.

There are important lessons to learn from the past. The obvious one to learn is Barack Obama, both because its fitting and also because it is on the top of people's minds (see Chuck Todd's questioning that upset Hugo so much).

So with Barack Obama we had...
- An inspirational figure whose soaring rhetoric about unifying a divided nation inspired many people
- Someone running after the end of a presidential term where the president was widely disliked
- The looming specter of financial collapse and unpopular war abroad

With Beto we have...
- An encouraging and likable figure whose soaring rhetoric about unifying a divided nation is inspiring some people
- Someone running after the end of a presidential term where the president was widely disliked
- The looming specter of environmental collapse and myriad domestic crises

Is that fair?

So we got Obama in office and we got some good things, but nothing that was really enduring beyond ACA, which is a system no one is happy with. Most of his accomplishments were executive authority that were destined to be swiped away by the next GOP president (DACA, etc...) because, as is very well documented, he did not create a sustained movement. 

--------------------
Edley echoed what many progressives were beginning to believe was possible with a President Obama: “There is a rare opportunity to have a citizen movement heading in the same progressive direction as an incumbent president.” According to his notes, the Silicon Valley luminaries on the call agreed. “Most felt it would be an unacceptable loss not to take advantage of the rare alignment of an incumbent President with a progressive agenda, and an online constituency of donors and supporters who can press for change against the inevitable upsurge of entrenched special interests which will resist it.”

As we now know, that grand vision for a postcampaign movement never came to fruition. Instead of mobilizing his unprecedented grassroots machine to pressure obstructionist lawmakers, support state and local candidates who shared his vision, and counter the Tea Party, Obama mothballed his campaign operation, bottling it up inside the Democratic National Committee. It was the seminal mistake of his presidency—one that set the tone for the next eight years of dashed hopes, and helped pave the way for Donald Trump to harness the pent-up demand for change Obama had unleashed.

“We lost this election eight years ago,” concludes Michael Slaby, the campaign’s chief technology officer. “Our party became a national movement focused on general elections, and we lost touch with nonurban, noncoastal communities. There is a straight line between our failure to address the culture and systemic failures of Washington and this election result.”
--------------------

Obama's army (Movement 2.0) was folded into the Democratic National Committee instead of being an autonomous progressive energy movement. It quickly lost fire and enthusiasm and died. A nationwide grassroots campaign of millions of motivated organizers was put under the auspices of people like Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and... well... we all saw how the Republicans took the House and Senate all throughout Obama's two terms. The Democratic Party killed it and focused ENTIRELY on re-electing Obama, which it successfully did at the expense of basically everything else.

"Thank you for getting me elected, now fuck off."

If Movement 2.0 had existed outside of the DNC's purview and was able to find, organize, united, promote, and fund progressive candidates outside of the DNC process we would've already had AOCs in the bullpen. Obama would either have kept Congress or at least had young, firebrand defenders in place to set the table for progress. Also, Movement 2.0 would've been exerting leftward pressure on Obama all throughout his 8 years, which was sorely missing.

And here's the thing: It's not about Republican/Democratic unity.

Unity is nice, but all it practically provides is the sufficient number of votes to solve problems. And it is those problems that create or exacerbate division.

So if Beto is going to get into office and "truly create meaningful change" then the movement has to be bigger than him. And that isn't just him saying it, he has to create a machine. It doesn't matter if he says, "We're building a grassroots campaign" if all he means is, "I'm going to personally get a lot of supporters and fundraise from them." He needs his own "Movement 2.0". He needs his own Our Revolution. And he needs those to exist independent of the DNC and push to enact and retain the necessary reforms he believes in.

And here's the bigger problem: Beto is no Barack Obama.

Barack Obama was a completely self-made black man who faced struggle and opposition his entire life and overcame it without wealth, power, or connections. He earned everything he had, broke racial barriers, and was an extremely impressive person basically from youth to the time he began to run for office. He was extremely intelligent and, even while there was politically-calculated shallowness to him, he understood the issues and movements far better than Beto has shown an ability to articulate.

So we are faced with a candidate who is LESS capable than the one who already failed to create sustained change and a sustained progressive movement.

I lean towards agreeing with much of what you're saying, which largely seems (sorry) to be about his potential efficacy in office.  The thing Hank was saying that I was challenging a bit is the idea that a unifying message would be bad for his campaign (which is not the same as his potential presidency).  I'm not trying to pick a fight with Hank and I hope he doesn't feel that way, but I wanted to challenge that because I don't know that I agree (also btw I don't know that he could campaign as effectively on a different theme) but also because he didn't explain why and that's the second time today where someone has begged the question in that way that has made my ears perk up a bit.  NowThis' comment about his campaign not getting any traction nationally was the other one (and that one felt a bit more calculated).

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29 minutes ago, Celery Man said:

I lean towards agreeing with much of what you're saying, which largely seems (sorry) to be about his potential efficacy in office.  The thing Hank was saying that I was challenging a bit is the idea that a unifying message would be bad for his campaign (which is not the same as his potential presidency).  I'm not trying to pick a fight with Hank and I hope he doesn't feel that way, but I wanted to challenge that because I don't know that I agree (also btw I don't know that he could campaign as effectively on a different theme) but also because he didn't explain why and that's the second time today where someone has begged the question in that way that has made my ears perk up a bit.  NowThis' comment about his campaign not getting any traction nationally was the other one (and that one felt a bit more calculated).

Unifying is important. We don't get there with the language Beto used in the quote I tweeted earlier, and frankly I think it's detrimental.  To me it feels like he's talking down to Americans by acting like the most hardcore liberals and Republicans deep down want to come together right now. It's ridiculous. And we won't unify because someone decides to run a super "positive'" campaign. The D presidential candidate IMO needs to be someone with conviction that promotes big ideas and policy changes, period. I want Trump out of office, but we don't need a bandaid. We need massive changes. Some people feel that "anyone but Trump" gets us back on the right path (I used to think this way), but it's not true. 

Beto is a campaign animal and has listened to thousands and thousands of voters. But the rhetoric he uses makes it seem like he isn't really listening. We donated to Beto, attended rallies, etc. in the Senate Race. We all fucking hate Ted Cruz. Yet he rarely brought him up. You just can't ignore the elephant in the room.  He did an outstanding job of getting a ton of Democrats to vote, but Rs fully backed Cruz. His message of unification failed then, and it will fail now if he doesn't focus on promoting progressive ideas. 

The best way for people to come together is when they themselves decide they want to, not because they are told to.  We will unify with good policy, not words. 

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I think I rationally believe a lot of what you are saying but want to believe that we can get out of this state if disunity (without a catastrophe) in the '20s.  I think my ideal ticket next administration has Beto as VP and someone more like a Warren or Buttigieg at the resolute desk.  See if Beto can ripen a bit and be an awesome senator or a good president down the road.

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1 minute ago, Celery Man said:

I think I rationally believe a lot of what you are saying but want to believe that we can get out of this state if disunity (without a catastrophe) in the '20s.  I think my ideal ticket next administration has Beto as VP and someone more like a Warren or Buttigieg at the resolute desk.  See if Beto can ripen a bit and be an awesome senator or a good president down the road.

Agreed. As a human being, I love Beto. He's in my top 5. 

Buttigieg, Warren, Sanders and Yang are pushing the big ideas. A lot of people are afraid of change, but warm up to it pretty quickly when it provides positive results. That's how we unify IMO. 

 

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There are a couple reasons to believe Beto could succeed in uniting the country to the extent Obama failed: (1) the GOP is going to be hobbled--possibly destroyed--in 2020 for enabling the most corrupt criminal presidential administration ever. There will be a greater need to heal the divisions than 2008 and more opportunity to do so; (2) Obama was black and half the country is racist. 

Meanwhile:

 

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Beto is capable of going negative and if he wins the nomination I think he will.  Right now is not the time to go hard to the paint on the GOP.  

Beto’s whole schtick is winning people’s trust and demonstrating he can listen well enough to be a responsible decision maker and govern in the best interests of America.  He’s not the kind of candidate that comes with a policy agenda to sell to the public.  

All he needs to do is convince enough people that he’s a good person and in it for the right reasons. Standing next to Trump, this shouldn’t be a challenging task for someone as charismatic and hard working as Beto. 

If Beto wins the nomination, Trump is fucked. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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12 minutes ago, markstanco said:


 

 


Show demographics on what race voted for Obama next.

Because if you didnt vote for Obama you were racist.

 

What?

"Half" was a rhetorical point. Obama's race absolutely played a role in the success  of McConnell/GOP's "make sure Obama fails at all costs" strategy. It is no coincidence that the strategy  culminated in electing the leading proponent of birtherism to the Whitehouse. A lot of other factors also helped elect Trump, but my point was that, sadly, a white Obama, will probably be more successful. The GOP would not necessarily be as successful putting party over country the next time around. This is a distraction, sorry I took the conversation there.

 

 

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Ok, good, this actually makes sense now. I knew a lot of people who were throwing money at him, so the idea that he didn't raise big didn't make any sense to me. Enthusiasm is high. He'll shoot up the polls (unless this world is insane).

Beto: 6.1M
Bernie: 5.9M
Biden: ???
Harris: 1.5M
Field: A lot less

That's not great for everyone else in the "I'm not an extremely old, lunatic socialist" lane.

I'd be very interested to see # of donors.

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I think that if Beto makes it out of the primaries it could be a bloodbath for Trump.  People worried about him losing to Cruz fail to realize that all losses are not equal in politics and Beto can landslide Trump without Texas.

Edit to add that he will have to center his message just a bit but it sounds like he is trying to do that.

Edited by TexEx15
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2 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I think that if Beto makes it out of the primaries it could be a bloodbath for Trump.  People worried about him losing to Cruz fail to realize that all losses are not equal in politics and Beto can landslide Trump without Texas.

This.

1 minute ago, alincoln said:

Can't wait for the inevitable conflict between the Beto bean flickers and the Bernie bros.  The progressives are very wary of Beto.

And this x1000.  But Beto can mitigate that by choosing Abrams as a running mate.

Beto-Abrams gets 375+ electoral votes.

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It should not be Bernie.  The key to this election in my option is avoiding another extreme.  Trumpkins are going to vote for Trump.  Democrats will vote whomever is ultimately vs. Trump.  The key are the moderate Republicans sick of Trump.  If you go too extreme to the left you risk them returning to Trump or just sitting out neither of which is good for dems.

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Just now, TexEx15 said:

It should not be Bernie.  The key to this election in my option is avoiding another extreme.  Trumpkins are going to vote for Trump.  Democrats will vote whomever is ultimately vs. Trump.  The key are the moderate Republicans sick of Trump.  If you go too extreme to the left you risk them returning to Trump or just sitting out neither of which is good for dems.

Ask yourself these questions:  

Candidate the Republicans want? 

Candidate the Russians want? 

Why do they want that candidate? 

 

Then ask yourself these questions:

Candidate the Republicans do not want? 

Candidate the Russians do not want? 

Why do they not want that candidate? 

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