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On 4/27/2019 at 9:11 PM, Goo Punch said:

Josh Hader is spectacular. K'd the first five he faced (all fastballs) in a six out save, including striking out four in a row on 12 straight pitches. Total domination. 

I hope he continues to go two innings all year long. 

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42 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

At some point they will have to play teams with a pulse.  You think they would still have that impressive record if they were playing teams with an average record better than 11 - 17?  They have played one team with a record above 0.500 this year and got swept.

uh, it's baseball. everyone will win 50 and everyone will lose 50, and the worst team in the league can beat the best team in the league on any given day. Boston is 11-17, are they trash? The defending champs opened the season with a series vs Seattle and went 1-3. Then they went 1-3 vs Oakland, 1-2 vs Arizona, and then 2-2 vs the fucking Orioles. They just went 0-2 vs the Rays. So either the Red Sox legitimately suck, or it's impressive that the Yankees are 17-11 with the highest ever amount of WAR on the IL. Your call.

 

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They will get all their guys back and have a similar win percentage as they have now.  Probably a little higher, but today's % puts them at around 98 wins.  If they were playing even half ass decent teams with their roster in triage they would be one of the teams with an 11 - 17 type record.

 

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2 hours ago, Goo Punch said:

uh, it's baseball. everyone will win 50 and everyone will lose 50, and the worst team in the league can beat the best team in the league on any given day. Boston is 11-17, are they trash? The defending champs opened the season with a series vs Seattle and went 1-3. Then they went 1-3 vs Oakland, 1-2 vs Arizona, and then 2-2 vs the fucking Orioles. They just went 0-2 vs the Rays. So either the Red Sox legitimately suck, or it's impressive that the Yankees are 17-11 with the highest ever amount of WAR on the IL. Your call.

 

Three of those five teams have winning records and the Rays have the best record in baseball today.  This isn't even close to the same comparison.  New York is a great team, should make the playoffs and can notch 100+ wins.  That's fine.  But saying their current record is miraculous because of their injuries is similar to aggy getting their dicks hard after three weeks when they've slapped around the likes of Nichols State, Rice and Sam Houston.

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6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Three of those five teams have winning records and the Rays have the best record in baseball today.  This isn't even close to the same comparison.  New York is a great team, should make the playoffs and can notch 100+ wins.  That's fine.  But saying their current record is miraculous because of their injuries is similar to aggy getting their dicks hard after three weeks when they've slapped around the likes of Nichols State, Rice and Sam Houston.

There really is no legitimate argument against this Yankees start being impressive, considering the injuries they have. I don’t care who they’ve played, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team deal with this kind of injury luck this early in the season. I can’t tell if you’re being serious. Wasn’t there some stat that said no team in the history of baseball has had this much WAR on the IL at the same time? 

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Just now, youdunnf'dup said:

There really is no legitimate argument against this Yankees start being impressive, considering the injuries they have. I don’t care who they’ve played, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a team deal with this kind of injury luck this early in the season. I can’t tell if you’re being serious. Wasn’t there some stat that said no team in the history of baseball has had this much WAR on the IL at the same time? 

yes and it is not particularly close

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Not exactly the same thing when you're throwing the bat down because you're pissed you made an out.

Yep. That montage of Mantle seems to make the rounds at least once a year in response to some stupid bat-flipping “controversy” and just makes the pro-bat flippers look even more stupid than they already are

(For the record, I have no problem with it. The game/baseball gods have a way of deciding what is over the line and addressing accordingly)
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I haven’t seen a bunt defended that poorly since #astrosbuntfail in the middle of their trifecta of 100+ loss seasons

 

 

 

Edit: of course Brisbee did an article on that Astros play. I know he covers the Giants now but this may need a sequel:

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/8/7/3226043/houston-astros-bad-play-oh-man-what-is-this-i-dont-even

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8 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

I haven’t seen a bunt defended that poorly since #astrosbuntfail in the middle of their trifecta of 100+ loss seasons

 

 

 

Edit: of course Brisbee did an article on that Astros play. I know he covers the Giants now but this may need a sequel:

https://www.sbnation.com/2012/8/7/3226043/houston-astros-bad-play-oh-man-what-is-this-i-dont-even

A couple of WS champs and an MVP involved in that play lol 

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1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

Profar's yips suck.  It's one thing to not be able to hit and your team lets you work it out a la Chris Davis.  It's another to be doing it while costing games on the field, demoralizing the team, and helping burn through your own pitchers.

Seems like a lifetime ago when he was untouchable in Texas. We would not trade him at all. I remember seeing him play in 2013 early in the season and he looked very shaky and that is putting it nicely. This was when he was still thought of as the golden child. He had a noodle arm and did not seem natural out there.

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3 hours ago, Vic Mackey said:

Seems like a lifetime ago when he was untouchable in Texas. We would not trade him at all. I remember seeing him play in 2013 early in the season and he looked very shaky and that is putting it nicely. This was when he was still thought of as the golden child. He had a noodle arm and did not seem natural out there.

You literally thought everyone on the two WS teams sucked at one time or another. 

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Stark. April recap:


How weird a month was April? Here’s how weird:

120 pitchers have won a game this year. None of them are named Chris Sale. 334 players have hit a home run this year. Until Tuesday, none of them were named Justin Turner.

“It’s hard to keep your head clear in April,” said an executive of one team that made the playoffs last year. “So I’ve thought about instituting a standings ban – and not even looking at the standings in April.”

That’s a fine idea for mental-health purposes. But this just in: Those games in April all count. So what have we learned from those games so far? A lot, actually! Here, for your amusement and edification, are 10 things we learned in the last month.

1. We’re heading for more homers than the PED era

Did you know the most home runs hit in any season in the PED era was “only” 5,693, back in 2000? Hey, no truth to the rumor we’re going to blow past that total by the All-Star break this year. But here’s a prediction that’s still pretty shocking:

We’re going to see 1,000 more homers in 2019 than we saw that year. Yeah, I said 1,000.

At the moment, baseball is on pace for close to 6,400 homers, thanks to the greatest March/April home run rate (1.31 per game). But it hasn’t even gotten hot yet! And history shows us that when the heat kicks in, the long balls really start flying.

YEAR APRIL HR/GAME REST OF SEASON HR/GAME
2019 1.31 —
2018 1.09 1.16
2017 1.17 1.27
2016 1.05 1.17
(Source: baseball-reference.com)

So what’s going on? The baseball! That’s what’s going on.

“When you watch these games,” said one AL executive, “how many times do you see a ball hit and your reaction is, `No freaking way that ball went out.’ Well, there have been way too many `No freaking way that ball went out’ moments this year to not believe that something is going on with the baseball.”

I don’t know anyone who thinks this is some diabolical juice-the-baseball plot by the people who run the sport. And even after reading Eno Sarris’ fascinating dive into this topic, I still haven’t heard a single other theory that doesn’t center around the ball. Eno believes that a change in hitters’ approach has something to do with this. But the rate of fly balls has barely changed. The number of those fly balls that come down in somebody’s beer mug, on the other hand? Now that has changed.

YEAR HR/FLY BALL
2019 14.4%
2018 12.7%
2017 13.6%
2016 12.6%
2015 11.0%
2014 9.5%
(Source: Fangraphs)

“It doesn’t have to be just one thing,” the same exec said. “Are the players bigger and stronger now? Of course they are. But if they are bigger and stronger, that didn’t all happen between October of last year and April of this year.”

2. Presto! Watch the single, triple and stolen base disappear

For every baseball action, there’s a reaction. I think Socrates Brito once said that. Or maybe Sir Isaac Galloway. But whatever, the changing shape of baseball in 2019 means that even as homers, strikeouts and those all-consuming Three True Outcomes keep rising, you might not even have noticed the stuff that’s disappearing. But we can help you with that.

SINGLES – It’s hard to even comprehend, but the average team now hits just 2.55 singles per game. Yeah, you read that right. That was two and a half singles a game! Between massive shifting and launch-angle fever, it’s never been harder to hit a single – ever. If this pace continues, that would produce about 1,000 fewer singles than last year – and nearly 3,000 fewer than just eight years ago:

YEAR SINGLES
2019 12,369*
2018 13,268
2017 13,386
2016 13,718
2015 14,116
2014 14,073
2013 14,148
2012 14,838
2011 15,101
(*-projected total)

(Source: Fangraphs)

STOLEN BASES – Despite the heroic efforts of the Royals, who are currently on pace to attempt 229 steals this year, base-stealing is at nearly a 50-year low. The average team now steals one base every other game. Which means we’re headed for the fewest stolen bases in any season since 1972, the fewest stolen-base attempts since 1965 and about 850 fewer steals than we saw as recently as 2012. The Phillies are on pace to steal 34 all season. The last time they won the World Series (2008), they stole 136.

TRIPLES – Is the triple still the most exciting play in baseball? If so, that’s not good – because we’re on pace for the fewest in history. The average team now hits one triple a week – and only 0.14 per game. So we’re headed for only 680 all season at this point – a drop of 250 just over the last four years. The drop in both steals and triples is a reflection of the scientific calculations that go into baserunning of all shapes and sizes. Teams have never been more reluctant to risk giving away outs, because, as one exec said, “You only get 27 of them every night.”

INTENTIONAL WALKS – You know what else teams don’t give away anymore? Baserunners. Now that the probability tables can calculate how overrated intentional walks always were, a bunch of teams have practically abandoned them entirely. The Astros have issued zero. The Padres and Orioles have doled out one apiece. And the sport is headed for its fewest intentional walks ever. As recently as 2001, back in this very century, Brewers manager Davey Lopes ordered 107 intentional walks by his team alone. Barry Bonds was gifted 120 by himself in 2004. This year, the five AL West teams combined are on pace to issue 75. It’s a new world, ladies and gentlemen.

3. We won’t see Kimbrel or Keuchel until June

Remember Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel? They last threw a pitch in October. It’s now more difficult than ever to believe they’ll throw another one until after the amateur draft, which is still nearly five weeks away.

Thank the Basic Agreement, which says their old teams will receive draft-pick compensation only if they sign a major-league contract “on or before the day prior” to the June draft, which begins this year on June 3. So if Kimbrel and Keuchel have stayed unemployed this long, what’s the downside in waiting another month so that the team signing them won’t have to give up a pick? That may not be their first choice, as Ken Rosenthal wrote this week. But it may be the only way left to revitalize their market.

“Let’s just say I wouldn’t be shocked if Kimbrel waits until after the draft,” said an exec of one team interested in him.

“I predict that neither the Astros nor the Red Sox will get a draft pick for those guys,” said an exec of a team that has stayed in touch on Keuchel. “I don’t know where they’re going to go. I don’t know what they’re going to get. But the one thing I feel strongest about is that neither team will get a pick.”

4. Waving for the bullpen is overrated

Never in history have more managers spent more time waving for a bunch of dudes who come stomping in from the bullpen to throw around 98 miles an hour. So you’d think those managers would be heaving deep, satisfied sighs of relief every time they could get a game into the hands of those fire-breathers, right?

Uh, not this year. Seven teams will head into May with bullpen ERAs of 4.82 or higher. And until it finally flipped on the final day of April, the average team’s bullpen ERA was actually worse than the ERA of its rotation, something that’s never happened in the history of modern pitcher usage. It’s still amazingly close.

YEAR STARTERS ERA RELIEVERS ERA
2019 4.33 4.35
2018 4.19 4.08
2017 4.49 4.15
2016 4.34 3.93
2015 4.10 3.71
2014 3.82 3.58
(Source: ESPN.com)

That’s a head-scratching glitch in 21st-century pitching philosophies, which have brought us quicker hooks on starters than ever before and nearly seven relievers traipsing into the average big-league game. But the best theory I’ve heard from the execs I’ve surveyed is that what we’ve seen so far is a reflection of how unprepared many relievers are when they leave spring training – because nothing they do in the spring replicates anything they do when the season starts.

“The only leverage these guys have in spring training,” said one NL exec, “is: `How quick can we get outa here so we can get on the golf course?’”

5. The Red Sox are the 2018 Dodgers

No two baseball seasons are ever created equal. The 2019 Red Sox could teach a course on that mysterious phenomenon.

They haven’t played a game in May yet, and they’ve already lost 17 games (13-17). They lost their 17th game last year on May 27 (when they were 36-17). They lost 18 games last year in March, April and May combined (39-18).
They had to beat the A’s twice in a row this week just to get back to four games under .500. If they hadn’t, they would have been farther below .500 heading into May than any World Series champ since the 1998 Wayne Huizenga Fire Sale Marlins (9-18) – and more games under .500 than any AL World Series champ in history.
They’re already five games under .500. No World Series champ has been that far below .500 heading into May since the 1998 Wayne Huizenga Fire Sale Marlins (9-18). No AL World Series champ has been that far under .500 on this date since Al Newman’s 1988 Twins (8-13).
They’re already seven games out of first place. No World Series champ has been that far out of first entering May since the ’98 Marlins were nine games back.
They’ve already lost five series. They didn’t lose their fifth series of the season last year until June 10 (when they were 44-22).
Their starting pitchers are 5-14, with a 5.39 ERA. According to Stats LLC, no defending champs has ever had its rotation slog through March/April with an ERA and winning percentage that low.
“The Red Sox,” said an executive of one AL contender, “are a mess.”

It’s hard to argue. But is this team really in trouble? Sure, it is. But you know what these Red Sox should be looking to for inspiration? How about the team they played in the World Series a mere seven months ago?

As The Athletic’s Chad Jennings wrote this week, the 2018 Dodgers were in even worse shape than this. On May 16, they were 10 games under .500 (16-26). They were 8 ½ games out of first place. They had the same record as the Marlins, a team that would go on to lose 98 games. They were in a virtual tie with the Padres (17-27), a team that would lose 96 games. You know what those Dodgers then reminded us?

That when you have 120 or 130 games to play, that’s more than enough time to prove how good you are. From this point on last season, the Red Sox went 86-46. If they even go 76-56 the rest of the way this year, in a league with very few legit contenders, that gets them to 88 wins. There’s a decent chance that would still earn them an invitation to keep playing in October.

6. The Rays are for real

OK, but now the bad news for the Red Sox: That Rays team they’re chasing isn’t the 2018 Diamondbacks.

Is there any team with better arms than this group in Tampa Bay? They lead the American League in ERA, FIP, strikeout percentage, average fastball velocity, whiff percentage, swinging-strike rate, opponent slugging and opponent OPS. They have three elite starters, in Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Charlie Morton – who have combined to go 10-2, with a 2.59 ERA and 116 strikeouts in 87 innings. And their lineup is so underrated, they’re second to the Yankees in average exit velocity.

Now here’s the other reason to think they have staying power: Their depth – in the big leagues and in their system – is up there with any team’s in the sport.

“They’re loaded,” said one rival exec. “And that means they can do anything they want to do in July. They can do nothing, or they can trade for the best player available and not have it impact their future in any significant way.”

7. The National League is exactly as advertised

The consensus in this sport a month ago was that this would be a really fun year in the life of the National League. And now that it’s May, guess what we know? The consensus actually got one right.

Nine teams in the NL went into Tuesday night at .500 or better. And the only thing surprising about that is that the Nationals and Rockies weren’t two of those nine.

THE NL EAST: “Just what everyone thought it was going to be,” said one exec. One plotline in this four-team free-for-all that nobody saw coming was Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Aaron Nola combining for a 4.82 ERA. One plotline everybody saw coming was the bullpen issues across the East that inspired one scout to say: “The team that fixes its bullpen first might win the division.”

THE NL CENTRAL: The Cardinals (19-10) might be a surprise to some people. But they were actually my NL World Series pick. They’re 16-5 over the last three weeks despite playing the second-toughest schedule in baseball, according to baseball-reference.com. Their position players lead the major leagues in total Wins Above Replacement. And the 25 fastest pitches in baseball this year have all been thrown by their rapidly ascending closer, Jordan Hicks. Behind them, who out there envisioned the Cubs catching the Brewers after the Cubbies started out 1-6 and the Brewers started 7-1? But it could be that kind of year in this wild-as-ever division.

THE NL WEST: The Dodgers are so deep and so talented, they feel like they’re on cruise control, waiting around for October, but they still seem poised to run away from this pack. They lead the league in runs scored. They’re on pace to hit 263 homers, which would obliterate the franchise record. And about the only real worry here is that Kenley Jansen’s case of gopherball fever, which flared up last year (13, plus two more in October) hasn’t disappeared. He’s on pace to give up 15 this season, for what it’s worth. But are the Rockies, Diamondbacks or Padres good enough to hang in this race? Every exec I polled on that question said no.

8. Cody Bellinger is a superstar

Just a few short months ago, Cody Bellinger got benched by those very same Dodgers against Chris Sale and David Price (both left-handed-throwing humans) in Games 1 and 2 of the World Series. By all accounts, he wasn’t a big fan of those benchings.

It’s hard to say how much that motivated him to turn into the 2019 MVP (so far). But he might have just had the greatest March/April – non-Barry Bonds division – of any player in history who didn’t get to play half his games at Coors Field.

GREATEST MARCH/APRIL EVER?
(20+ Games, 10+ HR, .400/.500/.890/1.390+ slash line)

YEAR PLAYER HR SLASH
2004 Barry Bonds 10 .472/.696/1.132/1.828
1997 Larry Walker 11 .456/.538/.911/1.449
2019 Cody Bellinger 14 .431/.508/.890/1.397
But beyond all that mashing, Bellinger is also: in the top 15 in the sport in Statcast sprint speed … the only player in baseball, according to Fangraphs, with double-figure homers and at least four infield hits … leading all NL right fielders, according to Sports Info Solutions, in Defensive Runs Saved (with seven).

Oh, and one more thing. He’s hitting .343/.385/.743 against left-handed pitching. So apparently, he isn’t a platoon-split guy anymore.

9. The heck with the “Kris Bryant rule”

As Kris Bryant could testify, there will always be teams in this sport that will care about service-time manipulation, the free-agent clock and Super-Two arbitration eligibility. But there’s another side to this story. The Fernando Tatis Jr. side. The Pete Alonso side. The Chris Paddack side.

All three of them made their teams’ Opening Day rosters this spring. How’d that work out?

TATIS: Just went on the Injured List, unfortunately. But leads the Padres in Wins Above Replacement (1.6). Has a .300/.360/.550 slash line. Joins two guys named Christian Yelich and Trevor Story as the only players in the NL with at least six homers and six steals. Energized his franchise every day he was on the field.

ALONSO: Leads a team with a $161.8-million payroll in Wins Above Replacement (1.7). His .292/.382/.642 slash line would be unmatched by any Mets rookie in history. With nine homers, already well on his way to breaking Darryl Strawberry’s record for most by a Mets rookie (26). Proud owner of the hardest-hit baseball (118.3 mph exit velocity) of 2019. See above for “energized his franchise.”

PADDACK: Six starts into his big-league career, still hasn’t allowed more than four hits in any of them. Heads into May leading all starters in the major leagues in WHIP (0.70), opponent average (.126) and opponent OPS (.404). A must-see attraction every time he’s out there.

Maybe the Mets and Padres will contend this year. Maybe they don’t have the depth or staying power. But if they do, shouldn’t there be a lesson for GMs of the future about the impact of phenoms like this in those weeks before most teams commonly call up their best prospects? Those three extra weeks of players this special could easily be the difference between a playoff spot and a spot on an October fishing boat.

In an age where most of the biggest stars are signing extensions anyway, it’s possible that in the future, only the “super-duper talents” and “future Hall of Famers” will get held down to buy an extra year on the free-agent clock, said one of the execs quoted above. But what stunned the industry this year was that the Padres didn’t worry about that with Tatís, who could fit that definition.

“I have to admit,” the same exec said, “that was gutsy. I hope they don’t look up in six years and see him filing for free agency. But my guess is that they’ll sign him. I sure hope so.”

10. The whole sport has turned into Nolan Ryan

Once upon a time, there was a pitcher named Nolan Ryan. We think of him as the greatest strikeout machine who ever lived. That’ll happen when a guy strikes out 5,714 innocent hitters who make the mistake of stepping in to “hit” against him.

But I noticed something about Ryan the other day that blew my mind. His rate of strikeouts per nine innings wasn’t 12 or 13 or 15. It was “only” 9.55.

I bring that up because, on the day I came upon that number, I noticed something else: For the first time ever, the entire sport of baseball has a strikeout rate of 9.0 per nine innings. And that’s a mind-boggling revelation about baseball in 2019. Your average pitcher now piles up a strikeout an inning. Or pretty close to what Nolan Ryan once did.

Now obviously, in Ryan’s era, all other pitchers averaged 5.46 strikeouts per nine innings, according to Lee Sinins’ Complete Baseball Encyclopedia. So it was a very different time. But that’s the point! Just since 2008, the strikeout rate has jumped from 6.8 per nine innings to nearly 9.0. And here’s the impact of that:

2008: 32,884 strikeouts
2019: 43,084 strikeouts*
(*-projected)

Yep, we’re on pace to see a jump of 10,000 strikeouts in just over a decade. But that’s baseball in 2019.

“If I had to put $20 on one record we’ll break this year, it would be on the strikeout record,” said one of the AL execs quoted earlier. “The game has become a sheer power game, on both sides of the ball. We’re looking for guys who throw the ball hard and guys who hit the ball hard. So if we’re scouting a guy and he’s not striking out nine per nine innings, we’re literally calling him a soft-tosser.”

As opposed to 50 years ago, when you know what Nolan Ryan’s strikeout rate was in his rookie season? How about 8.9 whiffs per nine innings. What a different universe.

 

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Also this may be well known by some people around here, but I was not aware:

There have been 17 pitchers get to 3000Ks

Cesar Geronimo somehow is the 3000th K for both Nolan and Bob Gibson.  The odds of that has to be like winning Powerball or some shit.  

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20 minutes ago, UTexasFight said:

“If I had to put $20 on one record we’ll break this year, it would be on the strikeout record,” said one of the AL execs quoted earlier.

the single season record?  that would be amazing to see.  no one has ever come close to Ryan except the Unit.

 

it's not like picking "not going to break the record" makes me a psychic or anything, but you can't really k that many guys any more with the ever-decreasing number of innings being pitched either.

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14 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the single season record?  that would be amazing to see.  no one has ever come close to Ryan except the Unit.

 

it's not like picking "not going to break the record" makes me a psychic or anything, but you can't really k that many guys any more with the ever-decreasing number of innings being pitched either.

No I think he meant total Ks

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12 hours ago, WBT said:

C.C. with his 3000th strikeout tonight, the 17th all time.  Verlander has a chance to get there this year too.

CC worked his way into my heart last year intentionally missing his half mill bonus for this.  https://deadspin.com/cc-sabathia-plunks-batter-costs-himself-500k-tells-r-1829369496

The team ended up giving him the money anyway because they realized it was awesome.

 

 

 

Edited by SuingToGetAMessageBoard?
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Top Hitters (March/April):

AL:

1) Trout (LAA), .294/.487/.565, 1.9 fWAR

T2) Dozier (KC), .349/.447/.686, 1.6 fWAR

T2) Andrus (TEX), .361/.425/.583, 1.6 fWAR

4) Chapman (OAK), .282/.382/.564, 1.5 fWAR

5) Vogelbach (SEA), .310/.462/.732, 1.4 fWAR

NL:

1) Bellinger (LAD), .431/.508/.890, 3.0 fWAR 

2) Yelich (MIL), .353/.460/.804, 2.4 fWAR

3) DeJong (STL), .342/.403/.607, 2.0 fWAR

4) Rendon (WAS), .356/.442/.740, 1.4 fWAR

5) Baez (CHC), .302/.341/.612, 1.3 fWAR

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23 minutes ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

That difference must mostly be D because I'd be surprised if Trout's slash line is worth .3 more WAR than Dozier's.  OBP isn't that important.

Yeah defense is a big part and Trout plays a premium position. He also has 16 more PA and WAR is obviously a counting stat.

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1 hour ago, SuingToGetAMessageBoard? said:

the single season record?  that would be amazing to see.  no one has ever come close to Ryan except the Unit.

 

it's not like picking "not going to break the record" makes me a psychic or anything, but you can't really k that many guys any more with the ever-decreasing number of innings being pitched either.

RIF_2.png

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