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2019 NBA Offseason Thread -- Trades, Free Agents, Firings, Retirements, Etc


Patrick Bateman

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The lakers have the better 1-2, but I don’t know that it’s a landslide if PG plays like he did last year. I’m not really seeing the argument for the lakers having the better roster from top to bottom though. The only way the lakers are better than the clippers, in my opinion, is if Anthony Davis is the best player on that team (and top 3 in MVP voting). Did I steal that from Bill Simmons Podcast? Sure. But it makes sense.

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The lakers have the better 1-2, but I don’t know that it’s a landslide if PG plays like he did last year. I’m not really seeing the argument for the lakers having the better roster from top to bottom though. The only way the lakers are better than the clippers, in my opinion, is if Anthony Davis is the best player on that team (and top 3 in MVP voting). Did I steal that from Bill Simmons Podcast? Sure. But it makes sense.

Your entire post is invalidated.

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i thought Lebron was being moved to point guard, yes? 

Lakers have better Bigs, only if they are healthy.  I'm seeing a lot of injuries on the Laker lineup.  No one looks to be able to play 75 games.  Otherwise I'd say Lakers are better. 

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10 hours ago, aggie08 said:

KD fulfilled his contractual obligation to the franchise and was a free agent.  KD gave 9 years of his career to the franchise, 8 of which building Oklahoma City from nothing, in the arena and in the community.  Most of Oklahoma was just being petty little bitches.  San Antonio has a real gripe.

i was going to respond to AB, but you already said it all. 

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7 hours ago, Sbbruin said:

So which roster and starting 5 is better?  What is a better 1-2, LBJ/AD or KL/PG?  I submit the Lakers to all 3 questions.  Clipping this so I would swap Kuzma for Rondo in the starting 5, with LBJ at the point as has been stated they will do.

Lakers roster

Projected starting lineup

  • Rajon Rondo -- Point Guard
  • Danny Green -- Shooting Guard
  • LeBron James -- Small Forward
  • Anthony Davis -- Power Forward
  • DeMarcus Cousins -- Center

 

Clippers roster:

Projected starting lineup:

  • Patrick Beverley -- Point Guard
  • Landry Shamet -- Shooting Guard
  • Kawhi Leonard -- Small Forward
  • Paul George -- Power Forward
  • Montrezl Harrell -- Center
 

I would barely lean AD-LeBron a slightly better duo overall but I think the Clippers are stronger top to bottom because the Lakers have so many question marks in terms of health, fit, and rotations.  First, I think Rondo and LeBron should barely be on the floor together so that starting 5 to me is not ideal at all.  I'd start LeBron at PG, two best small defenders with him (maybe Green and KCP, possibly Cook or Caruso to defend PGs), AD at 4, and McGee at 5.  For a closing lineup against the Clippers in the playoffs, maybe Bradley/KCP/Cook, Green, Kuzma, LBJ, Davis at 5.  Rondo and Cousins should lead the second unit.  Against say the Sixers if they get that far, I might switch a closing lineup  to KCP/Green/LBJ/AD/Cousins to match up perhaps with Horford/Embiid.  Way too early to know anything though I have no clue how good Bradley is anymore, how well Cook or Caruso can play, etc.  If Bradley still can play as an elite defender on 1s and 2s, I think he will play quite a bit.  Cook/Caruso/Green all on paper extremely elite catch and shoot guys (very elite actually but volume issue) but sample size isn't huge enough to count on with a few of them.  If Cousins is actually closer to the player he was two years ago, maybe at that point you actually tweak things as you can't count on that at all.

I like the Clippers depth much better, but their frontline is not ideal and you will see some PG13 at the 4.  You are also counting on Shamet a lot and he is quite young and you never know with youth deep in the playoffs when pressure/intensity is way up.  Zubac too who I like but very young and can you count on him when it's high stakes pressure as the key big man off the bench.  I think the Clippers are correctly the favorite because I think their defense will be suffocating, and I'd peg the Lakers, Sixers, Bucks, Rockets as all pretty good contenders if things break right for them.

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8 minutes ago, Llogg said:

I guess, but with his injury history that 35% may not be available.

then he has an option at 35M or so for his trouble.   It would have to be a pretty catastrophic injury at this point though.    We just saw KD get a max deal after tearing an achilles two weeks before

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11 minutes ago, NowThis said:

how has he left $118m on the table if getting $196 m from LAC? 

I think the $196M was for a 3+1 max deal. He opted instead to do a 2+1 for $103M. He is not really going to end up leaving the entire $118M behind as he will be getting paid to play ball in some amount. It's just unlikely to come close to the amount he could have gotten with the Spurs. I take the guaranteed money every time. Every guaranteed 100 million bucks is another generation that is supported by his earnings.

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14 minutes ago, Machinator said:

 

This is some stupid math right here. 

He'll make $32, 34 the next two years, then be in line for approximately 43, 46.5, 50.  So he's actually likely to make 205.5 over the next 5 years, plus have the next two years after that guaranteed at about 53.5 and 57 million during his age 33 and 34 seasons. Hard to say he's left any money on the table, let alone $118M.  There's certainly a little bit more risk given his injury history, but it can easily be argued this is the best possible financial route for him.

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2 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

This is some stupid math right here. 

He'll make $32, 34 the next two years, then be in line for approximately 43, 46.5, 50.  So he's actually likely to make 205.5 over the next 5 years, plus have the next two years after that guaranteed at about 53.5 and 57 million during his age 33 and 34 seasons. Hard to say he's left any money on the table, let alone $118M.  There's certainly a little bit more risk given his injury history, but it can easily be argued this is the best possible financial route for him.

Exactly, but people like to count other people's money

 

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8 minutes ago, Llogg said:

I think the $196M was for a 3+1 max deal. He opted instead to do a 2+1 for $103M. He is not really going to end up leaving the entire $118M behind as he will be getting paid to play ball in some amount. It's just unlikely to come close to the amount he could have gotten with the Spurs. I take the guaranteed money every time. Every guaranteed 100 million bucks is another generation that is supported by his earnings.

i'll need to see a timeline broken out by year from 2018 to future of what he could have made with SA vs. what he did actually make with TOR and LAC up through the 2024 season or whatever his final year. 

 

edit, just saw Macklins post 

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https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/27162275/inside-contracts-led-kd-kyrie-deals

 

Irving's contract is especially interesting: eight separate incentives -- $125,000 each, all deemed "unlikely" -- and thus not included in Irving's current cap hit. Irving's initial salary for 2019-20 is $31,720,000 -- exactly $1 million short of his maximum. Hitting all eight bonuses would make up the difference.

Irving would earn $125,000 apiece if:

  • He appears in at least 70 regular-season games.

  • He appears in at least 60 regular-season games and averages fewer than 2.4 turnovers per game. Irving has averaged 2.6 turnovers per game over his career, and between 2.3 and 2.7 in each of his past six seasons.

  • He appears in at least 60 regular-season games and attempts at least 4.6 free throws per game. Irving has averaged 4.4 free throws per game for his career, and has fallen below the 4.6 mark in each of his past two seasons.

  • He shoots 88.5 percent or better from the free throw line in the regular season. Irving is a career 87.5 percent free throw shooter. He has cracked the 88.5 percent mark in three of his eight career seasons.

  • Makes at least 2.8 3-pointers per game in the regular season. Irving has accomplished that just once in eight seasons. He has averaged 2.1 made 3s per game over his career.

  • He commits fewer than 2.1 fouls per game in the regular season. His career average: 2.2.

  • The Nets score at least 114 points per 100 possessions in the regular season with Irving on the floor.

 

Durant unlocks a $1 million bonus -- raising his salary to the maximum -- if any one of the following occur:

  • The Nets make the playoffs.

  • The Nets win 43 or more games.

  • Durant plays in at least 50 regular-season games.

  • Durant makes the All-Star team.

These bonuses are deemed "likely" to be reached and thus factor into Durant's cap hit already.

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51 minutes ago, Llogg said:

Durant cannot possibly be expected to play in 50 games.

True, but he just needs one of those four listed criteria to occur and the playoffs or 43 wins are fairly rated to me as likely to occur.

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Damn that dude has been humbled like few of his quality of talent. 2 or 3 years ago he was in line for a $180 million dollar contract. Now what will he make combined for this past season and the coming season? Less than $10 million total as he enters his 30s looking for a new contract? Karma is a muthafucka. 

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10 minutes ago, Catdaddyhorn said:

Damn that dude has been humbled like few of his quality of talent. 2 or 3 years ago he was in line for a $180 million dollar contract. Now what will he make combined for this past season and the coming season? Less than $10 million total as he enters his 30s looking for a new contract? Karma is a muthafucka. 

Yeah, pretty rough.    he has one last shot........maybe.   I suspect he will be as motivated as anyone we have ever seen.  He can change his perception, maybe win a title and salvage at least a decent long term contract with a good to great season.

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The Thunder have asked for Tyler Herro to be included. Herro was Miami's first round draft pick.

Oklahoma City asked the Heat to include two of Herro, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow during another point in the discussions this week. Miami is opposed to included Adebayo.

 

 

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/254850/Thunder-Seeking-Multiple-Young-Assets-From-Heat-For-Russell-Westbrook

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3 hours ago, d2o said:

Boogie looking really slim.   Hope that is a good thing.  He has plenty motivation to have a career season.    Would be the steal of the offseason if so.

 

 

He's only 28 and on a one year deal.  If he can prove he's healthy, he can still be in line for a fat deal.

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3 minutes ago, Sbbruin said:

He's only 28 and on a one year deal.  If he can prove he's healthy, he can still be in line for a fat deal.

Its also shaping up to be a pretty weak FA class.      There is opportunity out there for him.

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58 minutes ago, d2o said:

The Thunder have asked for Tyler Herro to be included. Herro was Miami's first round draft pick.

Oklahoma City asked the Heat to include two of Herro, Bam Adebayo and Justise Winslow during another point in the discussions this week. Miami is opposed to included Adebayo.

 

 

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/254850/Thunder-Seeking-Multiple-Young-Assets-From-Heat-For-Russell-Westbrook

Seeing as that Miami's goal is pretty much just to be competitive during Riley's last years instead of building a team that can win a title, I can't imagine they'd balk at the deal over including Herro and Winslow. 

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Some Surly 1%-er can really humblebrag if they buy this.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aubrey-mcclendon-oklahoma-city-thunder-195316575.html

Quote

A 22% stake in the National Basketball Association’s Oklahoma City Thunder owned by the late energy magnate Aubrey McClendon is up for sale, according to people familiar with the situation.

The sale will be run by the boutique investment bank Inner Circle Sports, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the process is private. The New York-based firm declined to comment.

The stake has been held by the Chesapeake Energy Corp. co-founder’s estate since his 2016 death in a single-car crash, which resulted in a number of creditor claims. Oaktree Capital Group LLC had put a claim on cash from a sale of the team stake, although the firm was repaid after the estate sold oil-and-gas leasehold interests in a separate transaction.

Martin Stringer, an attorney for the estate, didn’t respond to messages requesting comment on the Thunder sale. Tom Blalock, the executor of the estate, and team spokesman Dan Mahoney also didn’t return messages seeking comment.

The Thunder are worth about $1.5 billion, according to Forbes. That puts the small-market team in the middle of the pack of the NBA’s 30 squads, but the organization has been building momentum. It reached the playoffs in nine of the past 10 seasons, including the last four.

Sellout Streak

The Thunder posted an average local television rating of 6.69 this season, second-best in the NBA behind the Golden State Warriors. They also have sold out 355 consecutive home games, which is the third-longest active run in the NBA.

The team is controlled by Clay Bennett, whose group bought the club -- then the Seattle SuperSonics -- in 2006 for about $325 million. The team relocated to Oklahoma City for the 2008-2009 season.

It’s difficult to pinpoint a value for McClendon’s stake, which comes with voting rights but few other perks, according to the people. There’s no representation on the board or decision-making authority. In such cases, buyers will often seek to apply what’s called a limited partner discount, taking into account the absence of control or a say in franchise operations. Such discounts usually range from 10% to 20%.

The team’s roster -- and thereby its salary commitments -- are also in flux, which may affect the club’s valuation. The possibility exists that the Thunder, which recently traded Paul George and his $33 million salary to the Los Angeles Clippers, could also trade Russell Westbrook and his $38.5 million salary for next season.

 

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