Jump to content
Nice Guy Eddie

Texas 2020 general election

Recommended Posts

I know it’s early but I believe that the removal of straight ticket voting in Texas starting with the 2020 general election is going to have a major impact on the results. I don’t know in what direction but consider the following:

  • In 2016, the 10 largest Texas counties had 64% of the voters selected straight ticket. link
  • Results varied by county, but I believe that the state GOP leaders felt that Dem voters used straight ticket more frequently. But some large counties like Tarrant, Collin and Denton were the reverse.  

However I see the 3 following major impacts:

  • Longer voting lines. Voters won't be able to select 1 option and then walk out. If you really want to vote straight ticket, you now have to select each race. Put some of the olds with the electronic dial and button mechanism, and they may need 30 minutes. I haven't read about more precincts being added. Given that Texas MAY be in play, voting may be a nightmare in 2020.
  • GOP voters will have to actually select Trump. I think a small percentage of GOP voters will not be able to check his name but could have lived with selecting GOP. I’m sure Dems will also have this problem but I can’t imagine it will be at the same level. A few percent of GOP voters leaving POTUS blank could make a difference.
  • Down ballot races. There may be some races near the bottom of the ballot that now may need a very small turnout to win. We may get some even weirder than normal winners for local races.
     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Also remember that Harris County has implemented county-wide voting.  You will be able to go to any polling place in the county during early voting and on Election Day to vote.  Should make voting much easier.  Line too long at your local precinct on Election Day? Hop next door! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

 

  • GOP voters will have to actually select Trump. I think a small percentage of GOP voters will not be able to check his name but could have lived with selecting GOP. I’m sure Dems will also have this problem but I can’t imagine it will be at the same level. A few percent of GOP voters leaving POTUS blank could make a difference.

lol no

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Also remember that Harris County has implemented county-wide voting.  You will be able to go to any polling place in the county during early voting and on Election Day to vote.  Should make voting much easier.  Line too long at your local precinct on Election Day? Hop next door! 

All major cities in Texas should follow Harris counties lead on this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Voldemort86 said:

All major cities in Texas should follow Harris counties lead on this.

Well, the cities don't get to make that choice do they? Or do they? I really just assumed that would be a county decision. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I know it’s early but I believe that the removal of straight ticket voting in Texas starting with the 2020 general election is going to have a major impact on the results. I don’t know in what direction but consider the following:

  • In 2016, the 10 largest Texas counties had 64% of the voters selected straight ticket. link
  • Results varied by county, but I believe that the state GOP leaders felt that Dem voters used straight ticket more frequently. But some large counties like Tarrant, Collin and Denton were the reverse.  

However I see the 3 following major impacts:

  • Longer voting lines. Voters won't be able to select 1 option and then walk out. If you really want to vote straight ticket, you now have to select each race. Put some of the olds with the electronic dial and button mechanism, and they may need 30 minutes. I haven't read about more precincts being added. Given that Texas MAY be in play, voting may be a nightmare in 2020.
  • GOP voters will have to actually select Trump. I think a small percentage of GOP voters will not be able to check his name but could have lived with selecting GOP. I’m sure Dems will also have this problem but I can’t imagine it will be at the same level. A few percent of GOP voters leaving POTUS blank could make a difference.
  • Down ballot races. There may be some races near the bottom of the ballot that now may need a very small turnout to win. We may get some even weirder than normal winners for local races.
     

A step in the right direction, but party affiliation should be removed from all of the ballots and names listed in random order.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

With this change, how is Harris County going to produce a paper ballot is someone requests it?  I thought this was one of the driving forces to require someone to vote in their precinct since ballots can differ based on the precinct.   

Early voting has always been flexible in terms of locations  but I thought a paper ballot wasn't an option during early voting too.

In theory it shouldn't be difficult to print a voter specific ballot at any location but that would actually be a large change to deploy printers in every precinct. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

A step in the right direction, but party affiliation should be removed from all of the ballots and names listed in random order.

so you want to add an intelligence quiz to the voting process.  :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

If you want to call being able to recognize the names on the ballot and intelligence quiz, sure. And if there are too many races for a normal person to be able to make an informed vote on, then maybe not all of those offices should be filled by direct vote.

Edited by NotActuallyALonghorn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the GOP's assumption when they got rid of straight-ticket voting was that they had a lock on highly educated suburban voters and that such voters were more likely to go through the entire ballot.  Now that that assumption is no longer true, I wonder if that isn't going to bite them in the ass.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Trump listens to idiots in states like Arkansas ( Tom Cotton) and Alabama ( Stephen Miller, Jeff Sessions). His approval rating is off the charts in those 2 states.

 

did trump really think he wasn’t going to alienate upper middle class people by catering to the right wing nuts? You’re generally not going to fool educated people. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

All major cities in Texas should follow Harris counties lead on this.

Dallas, Tarrant, and Bexar have all started the process as well. Not sure if it is finalized yet. Travis has had it. Those and Harris are 40 percent of the electorate/population. Several smaller counties use it as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Ted Lange said:

 

 

Good for Bonnen I guess

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No straight ticket voting should be great for the Libertarian Party. Lots of races in Kaufman county end up being Republican v Libertarian so straight ticket Dems never get to vote for judges or state/federal reps. Would a Democrat vote for a Libertarian or just leave both bubbles blank?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/28/2019 at 7:36 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Trump listens to idiots in states like Arkansas ( Tom Cotton) and Alabama ( Stephen Miller, Jeff Sessions). His approval rating is off the charts in those 2 states.

 

did trump really think he wasn’t going to alienate upper middle class people by catering to the right wing nuts? You’re generally not going to fool educated people. 

I was going to say, "The Association of Former Students says 'hello,'" but then I saw the next to last word.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some numbers starting with Beto coming within 215,000 with 8.3 million total votes in 2018. There were 9 million in 2016 and 8 million in 2012 so 10 million or more are expected in 2020.

In the 10 largest counties he won by 939,235. The vote was 59% to 40% in his favor in those counties with 59% of the total vote and 71% of the Democratic vote.  In the 30 largest counties he won by 626,737 and the vote was 54% to 45% in Beto's favor with 79% of the total vote and 88% of the democratic vote coming from the 30 biggest counties. 

The 2 million+ new voters in 2020 that did not vote in 2018 will mostly come from the 10 largest counties with a smaller percentage from the next 20 largest counties. The rural vote is effectively reached its maximum already. Even if the voting percentages stay the same those 2 million would vote about 57% to 42% democratic. That would be a net gain of 300,000 votes versus 2018.

If the percentages favor Democrats more strongly or the Republican enthusiasm does not get a Kavanaugh-like bump in 2020 it could swing more in Democrats favor. If the Democrats pick a candidate with the personality of a turnip, it could go in the Republican's favor. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, RayDog said:

Some numbers starting with Beto coming within 215,000 with 8.3 million total votes in 2018. There were 9 million in 2016 and 8 million in 2012 so 10 million or more are expected in 2020.

In the 10 largest counties he won by 939,235. The vote was 59% to 40% in his favor in those counties with 59% of the total vote and 71% of the Democratic vote.  In the 30 largest counties he won by 626,737 and the vote was 54% to 45% in Beto's favor with 79% of the total vote and 88% of the democratic vote coming from the 30 biggest counties. 

The 2 million+ new voters in 2020 that did not vote in 2018 will mostly come from the 10 largest counties with a smaller percentage from the next 20 largest counties. The rural vote is effectively reached its maximum already. Even if the voting percentages stay the same those 2 million would vote about 57% to 42% democratic. That would be a net gain of 300,000 votes versus 2018.

If the percentages favor Democrats more strongly or the Republican enthusiasm does not get a Kavanaugh-like bump in 2020 it could swing more in Democrats favor. If the Democrats pick a candidate with the personality of a turnip, it could go in the Republican's favor. 

Very interesting stuff man.

 

i have 2024 circled as “the year” Texas goes blue. I just don’t see it happening before then. I hope it does tho. I’d love to see Texans vote out the arrogant Yankee douchebag trump. Yes........ we need 5 more years of people moving here, olds in the rural dying, and more actual voters. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, HRSchenker said:

No straight ticket voting should be great for the Libertarian Party. Lots of races in Kaufman county end up being Republican v Libertarian so straight ticket Dems never get to vote for judges or state/federal reps. Would a Democrat vote for a Libertarian or just leave both bubbles blank?

When presented with this scenario in the past, I've always voted L over R.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some unanswerable questions that remain in relation to the info raydog posted:

Do the people moving to the major metro areas vote dem at the same rate that the current residents do? 

Do they turn out at the same rate as current residents? 

2018 makes the trend look really promising but was it an outlier? Beto drove turnout against a complete turd. 

As stated by others, the removal of the straight ticket option is a wild card. Republicans clearly think this is to their advantage. I’m not so sure, especially regarding trump, but we will see.

Its hard data to quantify but I actually think the rate at which old, white, reliable republican voters are dying is being underplayed, especially for non-presidential years. These people vote in every election. I just look at my own extended family and know that 50% of the republican voters likely won’t be around in 2024. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In the largest 10 counties the Democratic vote has gone up about 10% in 6 years from 2012 to 2018, (from roughly 50/50 to 60/40) so I can say with confidence that the new voters are trending Democrat and they are turning out.

I used the same percentage as 2018 because I don't know how big the Beto bump was. If he was merely on the trendline Democrats can expect to win the 10 biggest counties 62% to 38% or thereabouts in 2020. That alone should close the 215000 vote gap.

As mentioned in another thread nationally the Boomer and older voters were 49% of the vote in 2016 and likely will be around 43% in 2020 and 37% in 2024. Texas is actually a relatively young state with young non-voters. But even so the math does not work for Republicans.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That last paragraph is crazy. You seem more bullish on 2020 being the year things flip the things start looking really good by 2024. I don’t want to get ahead of myself but it seems like Texas could be purple for only a few election cycles.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am very bullish on Texas flipping but it is still turnout dependent. I had Beto winning before the Kavanaugh hearings but losing after because of the huge increase in voter excitement among Republicans. I cannot predict if something like that will happen again this time to save the Republicans, and not everyone has Beto's charisma.

The trends are very clear and I got my data from a study by PEW for 2020 and extrapolated to 2024.Check out the graph showing the percentages by generation.

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

One interesting thing I noted is the Cook PVI is still partly based on 2016 and 2012. They basically assume that the Democratic to Republican ratios stay fixed with the generations, which we know isn't try. The Cook PVI is very much a lagging model. PEW's approach is more forward thinking.  I tend to subtract 5 or 6 from Cook PVI numbers to reflect what PEW found.

On the anecdotal side I am a young Boomer, but I find myself generally aligned with Millennials on a lot of things in politics. Based on my friends and acquaintances, younger boomers born roughly after 1960 tend to be more liberal, so Boomer voting tendencies may not be constant as older boomers die off. At least one can hope.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, RayDog said:

I am very bullish on Texas flipping but it is still turnout dependent. I had Beto winning before the Kavanaugh hearings but losing after because of the huge increase in voter excitement among Republicans. I cannot predict if something like that will happen again this time to save the Republicans, and not everyone has Beto's charisma.

The trends are very clear and I got my data from a study by PEW for 2020 and extrapolated to 2024.Check out the graph showing the percentages by generation.

https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/essay/an-early-look-at-the-2020-electorate/

One interesting thing I noted is the Cook PVI is still partly based on 2016 and 2012. They basically assume that the Democratic to Republican ratios stay fixed with the generations, which we know isn't try. The Cook PVI is very much a lagging model. PEW's approach is more forward thinking.  I tend to subtract 5 or 6 from Cook PVI numbers to reflect what PEW found.

On the anecdotal side I am a young Boomer, but I find myself generally aligned with Millennials on a lot of things in politics. Based on my friends and acquaintances, younger boomers born roughly after 1960 tend to be more liberal, so Boomer voting tendencies may not be constant as older boomers die off. At least one can hope.

Boomers born after 1960 are generation X.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That was another thing. There weren't any big mass shootings in the last few months leading up to the 2018 electron. It was almost like the would-be shooters were intentionally waiting until after the election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Boomers born after 1960 are generation X.

Generations don’t start or stop on specific dates, and experts don’t agree on them.  Obama was born in ‘61 and I don’t believe anyone considers him Gen X.  But he doesn’t appear to fit into Boomer either.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, JimmyJames said:

Boomers born after 1960 are generation X.

Hopefully I’m not offending anyone here, but.....

 

the silent generation are the people who suck. They all watch Fox News in unison, they all vote, and they believe all the fear mongering on Fox News and from trump himself. These people buy it hook, line, and sinker. These people also lack the research and technological capabilities to fact check trump or Fox News. These people are pretty damn hopeless.

The silent generation is from 1925-1945 and they’re incredibly old school. To put it nicely, In order to get a purple / blue texas, we need this generation to disappear from the voting rolls as soon as possible.

Edited by Voldemort86

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Another shooting in West Texas won't be helping the GOP next year. 

I hope you're right

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The lines will suck because many of the usual straight ticket voters will discover that there is no longer straight ticket voting when they reach the booth.  They are going to have to figure it out on the fly.

I plan on voting on the Sunday between the first and second early voting weeks, always the lowest voter turnout day of the election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I guess that brings up another question. How does intentional voter suppression factor into the predictions? Rural voting locations aren’t going to have long lines even with the changes. Retired people can go at off times or just wait all day. Single working moms will see a line and know that daycare is closing in an hour and that they will never make it. GOTV efforts are going to have to push early voting harder than ever.

Dems also need to push for as many polling locations as possible and for them to stay open as long as possible. Texas State had one but it was only open for two days then closed until people went to the media with it. The location was eventually reopened but how many times did that happen and we never heard about it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Who decides the number of polling places, early voting hours, etc?  Is it the state or county? I know Harris Court has a Dem in charge of elections so is it her choice, assuming she has the budget to create polling locations, increase hours, etc.   I assume the state sets the early voting days. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Who decides the number of polling places, early voting hours, etc?  Is it the state or county? I know Harris Court has a Dem in charge of elections so is it her choice, assuming she has the budget to create polling locations, increase hours, etc.   I assume the state sets the early voting days. 

I’m assuming county because Hays county is the one that caved to pressure during the Texas state mess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/1/2019 at 10:50 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Who decides the number of polling places, early voting hours, etc?  Is it the state or county? I know Harris Court has a Dem in charge of elections so is it her choice, assuming she has the budget to create polling locations, increase hours, etc.   I assume the state sets the early voting days. 

The Texas Election Code governs elections.  It sets some things like voting days and hours and delegates some powers to county election clerks, for example number and locations of polling places.  The code does have some rules specifying polling places (for example, having one in each voting precinct on Election Day) but the county election clerk has some power to determine places.

Travis County elections are really well run.  You can vote at any polling place.  You can get an online customized ballot you can print and bring with you.  In the last election they had a map showing which polling places had lines with a red/yellow/green stoplight indicator.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Texas Jeff said:

The Texas Election Code governs elections.  It sets some things like voting days and hours and delegates some powers to county election clerks, for example number and locations of polling places.  The code does have some rules specifying polling places (for example, having one in each voting precinct on Election Day) but the county election clerk has some power to determine places.

Travis County elections are really well run.  You can vote at any polling place.  You can get an online customized ballot you can print and bring with you.  In the last election they had a map showing which polling places had lines with a red/yellow/green stoplight indicator.

 

Big cities need all sorts of conveniences like this. Should be a no brainer.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Remember that Seinfeld where Kramer gets a call out of the blue asking him to come back to H&H Bagel after a decade because the strike is over and they need him to work over the holidays?  

That's what I picture happening to Dan Patrick.  Like, his entire political existence just evaporates, as it's revealed this whole time he was just waiting to get called-back from a retail layoff in the Men's Department at Dillard's.  And he goes back to work an honorable job and we never hear from him again.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Tarrant, Travis, Bexar and El Paso counties need to follow suit.

I think Travis is already there ...  you can vote wherever you see the Vote Here / Vote Aqui sign.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:

Tarrant, Travis, Bexar and El Paso counties need to follow suit.

One wonders if this will be a significant disadvantage to the GOP not having this in places like Montgomery County and Smith County (i.e., places that are big enough for it to matter).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

One wonders if this will be a significant disadvantage to the GOP not having this in places like Montgomery County and Smith County (i.e., places that are big enough for it to matter).

Interesting point. Midland and Ector counties are bursting at the seams, but I find it doubtful they'll also get their shit together in anticipation of long lines. Could be wrong though - the 70/30 Republican county with a population of about 33,000 where my hometown is located (in the Basin) has also recently gone to this new countywide voting format.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

One wonders if this will be a significant disadvantage to the GOP not having this in places like Montgomery County and Smith County (i.e., places that are big enough for it to matter).

The largest GOP counties are trending toward the Democrats (below), so going with county-wide voting could accelerate that trend. Even a 2 or 3 percent increase in the Democratic percentage in right leaning counties could be disastrous for the GOP in state races and certain representative districts. I think they will stick with voter suppression in those counties unless the county has some honest Republicans or ones that don't realize they might be helping the Democrats.

The largest counties that went for Cruz in 2018 with the Democratic percentage in 2018, 2016, and 2012. Note that while many of the Democratic votes were flat from 2012 to 2016 the Republicans (Trump) actually lost votes to the Libertarian ticket, so the progression of Republican loses is more linear. If the Democrats hold their Beto numbers and Libertarians get 3% like 2016 that will be bad for Republicans too.

Collin 46.53%, 38.91%, 33.49%
Denton 45.52%, 37.13%, 33.35%
Montgomery 26.97%, 22.40%, 19.02%
Galveston 39.66%, 35.52%, 35.89%
Brazoria 40.47%, 35.65%, 32.25%
Lubbock 35.02%, 28.30%, 28.81%
Bell 44.37%, 39.79%, 41.19%
Smith 29.95%, 26.31%, 26.95%
McLennan 38.00%, 34.22%, 34.47%
Brazos 43.23%, 34.40%, 31.23%
Comal 27.37%, 22.90%, 22.22%
Ellis 31.53%, 25.53%, 25.63%
Guadalupe 36.79%, 31.81%, 31.80%
Parker 18.27%, 14.69%, 16.47%
Johnson 23.67%, 19.07%, 21.49%
Randall 19.84%, 15.41%, 15.24% 

On that last note I will add that Libertarians had 283,492 in 2016, 65,470 in 2018, and 88,580 in 2012, so Libertarian votes could wipe out a significant chunk of Cruz's 215,000 vote winning differential.

Edited by RayDog

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 9/5/2019 at 6:50 PM, Voldemort86 said:

Tarrant, Travis, Bexar and El Paso counties need to follow suit.

Tarrant is now approved. Bexar is pending approval I think 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I apologize in advance for offending any Bernie type people here but,

I wonder what the Texas Democratic Party would do if they had power. I think they might actually do a good job. I’d guess that most Texas Democrats aren’t like the “over the top” socialists like Bernie, Elizabeth warren, or AOC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Voldemort86 said:

I apologize in advance for offending any Bernie type people here but,

I wonder what the Texas Democratic Party would do if they had power. I think they might actually do a good job. I’d guess that most Texas Democrats aren’t like the “over the top” socialists like Bernie, Elizabeth warren, or AOC. 

Duck!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Played around with 3 of the last 4 senate/president races in Texas

JqNxnUmp_o.jpg

Notes:

  • The 2nd row takes the # of votes in the county into account to size the bubble.
  • I left Cornyn's 2014 race out because I don't believe he faced a challenger but fair to disagree with me. He won 61%.

Takeaways:

  • Texas is quickly becoming purple and/or the GOP has put up some bad candidates. Probably both.
  • Small counties are becoming redder or at least remaining the same
  • Large counties are becoming bluer across the board
  • The top 10 counties by number of votes have expanded from 56.5% of the total vote to 58.7%
  • The rural areas/suburbs on the south side of Dallas, between Austin-SA and north Houston are critical for the GOP. Lose them and its over.

No evidence to support this, but I think with the right candidate, the GOP could swing Texas back to some extent. Trump and Cruz aren't that candidate. It's possible that dislike of Trump and Cruz (or love of Beto) skews the map somewhat.   This may not be known until 2024.

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Played around with 3 of the last 4 senate/president races in Texas

JqNxnUmp_o.jpg

Notes:

  • The 2nd row takes the # of votes in the county into account to size the bubble.
  • I left Cornyn's 2014 race out because I don't believe he faced a challenger but fair to disagree with me. He won 61%.

Takeaways:

  • Texas is quickly becoming purple and/or the GOP has put up some bad candidates. Probably both.
  • Small counties are becoming redder or at least remaining the same
  • Large counties are becoming bluer across the board
  • The top 10 counties by number of votes have expanded from 56.5% of the total vote to 58.7%
  • The rural areas/suburbs on the south side of Dallas, between Austin-SA and north Houston are critical for the GOP. Lose them and its over.

No evidence to support this, but I think with the right candidate, the GOP could swing Texas back to some extent. Trump and Cruz aren't that candidate. It's possible that dislike of Trump and Cruz (or love of Beto) skews the map somewhat.   This may not be known until 2024.

 

 

 

 

Personally, I think it hinges on Tarrant/Williamson going from purple to blue and then Collin/Denton making the transition. If/when that happens, the GOP is cooked.

(Brazoria/Galveston also seem to be following Fort Bend's lead on the south side of Houston.)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

mpu


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Recruiting ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Help ... For Sale ... Politics ... Board Discussion
×
×
  • Create New...