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2018 - Elections and Trends

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It's comical that polls are still viewed as the the mechanism with which we should evaluate likely election outcomes, given the 2016 election.  I am unaware of any great poll "reform" or update that addressed that gigantic fuck up.

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17 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

It's comical that polls are still viewed as the the mechanism with which we should evaluate likely election outcomes, given the 2016 election.  I am unaware of any great poll "reform" or update that addressed that gigantic fuck up.

It’s amazing that the Yanks would keep on bringing out Rivera as though he didn’t blow that one save.  

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Charlie Dent not running for re-election. That’s 47 in the House by my count. These pricks are all depriving me the satisfaction of watching them get kicked out. Sad!


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2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

It's comical that polls are still viewed as the the mechanism with which we should evaluate likely election outcomes, given the 2016 election.  I am unaware of any great poll "reform" or update that addressed that gigantic fuck up.

That's the thing, the polls didn't fuck up. They were nearly all within the margin of error. The fuck up was due to pundits making predictions based on those polls while disregarding the margin of error.

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2 hours ago, Incredulity said:

It's comical that polls are still viewed as the the mechanism with which we should evaluate likely election outcomes, given the 2016 election.  I am unaware of any great poll "reform" or update that addressed that gigantic fuck up.

The big problem with 2016 is that they were using national numbers to predict a Hillary win. National numbers don't mean shit with the electoral college. For sure, they'll stick with state polls next time, and the polls weren't bad down ballot in 2016 either. 

Still, the problem with polls is honesty when it comes to Trump in particular. Nobody wants to admit to voting for or liking Trump. Its why Gary Johnson was poll popular on shaggy even though most shaggy conservatives probably voted for Trump. There arent many other candidates that people are ashamed to vote for. 

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10 hours ago, NBMisha said:

I saw any analysis maybe 10 days ago, some tv panel type, that went the D's had to garner 55.5% of votes, nation wide, as a proxy to get a one seat majority in the house.  That is, they need an 11 point generic gap to win.  That is a hard fact to absorb.  If true.

Depends on who turns out.  

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13 hours ago, NBMisha said:

I saw any analysis maybe 10 days ago, some tv panel type, that went the D's had to garner 55.5% of votes, nation wide, as a proxy to get a one seat majority in the house.  That is, they need an 11 point generic gap to win.  That is a hard fact to absorb.  If true.

I looked up the last few elections to see how popular vote led to number of house seats:

Votes received for each major party for a US Representative, seats controlled by that party as a result of the election:

2016:  Rep: 49.1%, Dem: 48.0%  (R +1.1%), result is a Republican house 241-194 seats (55.4% R)

2014: Rep: 51.2%, Dem 45.5% (R +5.7%), result is a Republican house 247-188 seats (56.7% R)

2012: Rep: 47.6%, Dem 48.8% (D +0.8%), result is a Republican house 234-201 seats (53.7% R)

2010: Rep: 51.7%, Dem 44.9% (R +6.8%), result is a Republican house 242-193 seats (55.6% R)

2008: Rep: 42.6%, Dem 53.2% (D +10.6%), result is a Democratic house 257-178 seats (59.1% D)

2006: Rep: 44.3%, Dem 52.3% (D +8.0%), result is a Democratic house 233-202 seats (53.5% D)

Strange that Congress is never closer than about 30 seats even though two elections have been within about 1%.  The Dems held about the advantage they should have had in 2006, then were overweighted in 2008.  Since 2010, the Reps have always held more seats than their national percentage and the percentage of seats has not varied more than 3%, even though the election results have varied by 7.6%.  The R's in the house from 2010-2016 seem entrenched, regardless of the national vote totals.

And, in response to the poster, the D's have not recently won more than 55% of the vote ... if they did that would be a landslide election.

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2012 onward would reflect the Census counts and redistricting. I believe. It's also the first year in which a minority party got more seats. The consistency thereafter may point to the gerrymandering that went on after that.

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Ouch. 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/04/18/bob-corker-phil-bredesen-532511

Quote

Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.) offered warm words on Wednesday for the Democrat vying to take his seat, estimating that former Gov. Phil Bredesen is six percentage points ahead of GOP rival Rep. Marsha Blackburn.

After reiterating a vow that he would not campaign against Bredesen, Corker also declared that there's "no question" the Democrat would "have crossover appeal" in November's closely watched race to succeed him.

"I think he’s got real appeal," the retiring Corker said of Bredesen, describing the Democrat as "a friend of mine" and a productive partner for more than two decades. 

Asked about a poll earlier this month that showed Bredesen 10 percentage points ahead of Blackburn in the race, Corker told reporters at a Christian Science Monitor-sponsored breakfast that he thought that result was "probably a little heavy," adding that Blackburn is likely down "a real six" percentage points in the race.

Even as Corker heaped praise on Bredesen, he said he would vote for Blackburn and contribute to her campaign. He also questioned whether the Democrat's aisle-crossing persona would be enough to put him over the top. 

"In a state like ours that’s still a red state, is it enough?" asked Corker, who flirtedwith reversing his retirement plans in February.

Blackburn campaign spokeswoman Abbi Sigler responded to the Corker comments with a jab at Bredesen, not the incumbent Republican senator.

"Phil Bredesen will be a solid vote for Chuck Schumer and Obama, Clinton-era liberal policies, and Tennesseans are not interested in that," she said.

But Republicans working to elect Blackburn were privately frustrated by Corker's latest bout of praise for the Democratic candidate. Bredesen sent a fundraising email Tuesday that highlighted previous positive comments from Corker. 

"Senator Corker is actively trying to undermine Senate Republicans and President Trump’s agenda," one Senate GOP campaign strategist said. "It’s sad that he is spending his last days in the Senate helping Chuck Schumer."

 

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4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

It helps that Marsha Blackburn is a complete loon.

I expect we will see her fully fly her loon flag as the election gets closer.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I expect we will see her fully fly her loon flag as the election gets closer.

"Loon" is not a GOP bug these days, it's a feature.  And it may be enough to win the race.  The "loon" brand has appeal.

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Anyone surprised by the Bredesen/Blackburn numbers doesn’t keep up with politics in TN. Blackburn is a nutcase and Bredesen has name recognition, a Blue Dog Democrat record, and was adamantly against a state income tax. Although it is controlled by R’s now, the state historically has been conservatively democrat and he fits that mold. Plus Corker is supporting him which helps.

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35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump promised to campaign for Blackburn today. 

How bad will she lose?

5 points, and for a Republican in Tennessee to lose by that much is massive

Edited by BYG Jacob

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4 hours ago, BYG Jacob said:

5 points, and for a Republican in Tennessee to lose by that much is massive

You’re way over selling it just for the record. We’re not talking about some random Democrat beating a normal Republican. Bredesen is well thought of and well known and also comes from the same mold as John Tanner and other Democrats in the state that have done well even as the state has made a hard flip to 80%+ rep on the R side. Blackburn isn’t your typical R in the state and is not all that well thought of. It will be a bigger surprise inside the state if Bredesen doesn’t win.

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Also, if Shelby/Davidson county can pull a solid voter turnout, it can easily swing a statewide election as they still go 2/3’s or more D.

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8 minutes ago, Brew said:

 

You’re way over selling it just for the record. We’re not talking about some random Democrat beating a normal Republican. Bredesen is well thought of and well known and also comes from the same mold as John Tanner and other Democrats in the state that have done well even as the state has made a hard flip to 80%+ rep on the R side. Blackburn isn’t your typical R in the state and is not all that well thought of. It will be a bigger surprise inside the state if Bredesen doesn’t win.

Gosh I love it when we get it straight from the front lines. Farm fresh onions

 

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That NYT article is the first mention I've heard of my own TX 22nd district, and hopefully not the last.

The incumbent, Pete Olson, is a fairly popular moderate who has stayed nearly out of sight since Trump got elected, aside from holding a town hall at 7:30 in the morning on the first day of school last September and co-sponsoring the Internet Privacy Raid of March 2017, IIRC. We'll see if he will feel the need to get in with the R loony bin.

Sri Kulkarni, my pick, will face off against Leticia Plummer in the May Democratic runoff. Plummer, a Berniecrat, is an otherwise good candidate who plays the gender and race card too heavily to beat Olson, IMO. Her campaign has gathered steam since receiving an endorsement from the "establishment" candidate and last month's 3rd place finisher Steve Brown, who has engaged in a bit of mud-slinging with Kulkarni. I think Kulkarni has done a good job running as a progressive with some moderate appeal, and he impressed me in the few debates and town halls I've watched. Plus, the Indians (dot) of Sugar Land will fucking love him. He can make it a single digit race against Olson, if nominated, and with a good ground game and a few bounces his way, who knows?

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https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/24/us/politics/trump-evangelicals-midterm-elections.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

 

Quote

The conservative Christian coalition that helped usher President Trump into power in 2016 is planning its largest midterm election mobilization ever, with volunteers fanning out from the church pews to the streets to register voters, raise money and persuade conservatives that they cannot afford to be complacent this year.

But the cumulative weight of scandals in Mr. Trump’s private and public life is threatening to overshadow what the religious right sees as its most successful string of policy victories in a generation. And Republicans will be up against not only a resurgent liberal opposition to Mr. Trump but also the historical disadvantages that burden any party in full control of Washington, especially in the first off-year congressional elections of a president’s term.

Quote

“The midterms are going to be very, very tough for the Republicans,” said Robert Jeffress, who leads the First Baptist Dallas megachurch and is one of Mr. Trump’s most loyal evangelical supporters.

Mr. Trump, to date, has been accused by a pornographic film star and a Playboy playmate of conducting separate affairs shortly after his wife, Melania Trump, gave birth to their son. Those controversies, paired with the multiple women who accused him of groping them before the election and his own boasts of sexual aggressions, have put a spotlight on the evangelical movement and its unyielding support for the president. Critics in other parts of the Republican tent — and a few among evangelical leaders — are asking just how much obscenity, belligerence and bigotry Christians should accept.

“Now even the Christian culture is O.K. with it,” said Jim Daly, the president of Focus on the Family, one of the nation’s largest evangelical groups. “That’s the sadness,” he added. “The next time a Democrat in the presidency has a moral failure, who’s going to be able to say anything?”

Spoiler

In essence, many evangelical leaders have decided that airing moral qualms about the president only hurts their cause.

“His family can talk to him about issues of character,” said Penny Young Nance, the president of Concerned Women for America, an evangelical organization that is framing the midterm elections to potential donors as a civilizational struggle.

So far, the decision by most conservative evangelical leaders to double down on their support for Mr. Trump is playing out like most of the other moments when skeptics of the president believed he had finally undermined himself with his base.

A poll released last week by the Public Religion Research Institute found white evangelical approval for Mr. Trump at its highest level ever: 75 percent. Only 22 percent said they had an unfavorable view of the president.

Much as in the 2016 presidential campaign, Christian conservative events are designed to be highly visible and to convey the movement as one united voice. Hundreds of evangelical leaders plan to gather in June at the Trump International Hotel in Washington for a conspicuous show of support for Mr. Trump. The event will be part pep rally, part strategy session.

Paula White, a pastor for Mr. Trump for more than 16 years, has facilitated events for conservative evangelicals to meet senior White House officials, including a gathering for women and another for pastors of megachurches in recent weeks.

“Let’s pray there’s not apathy,” Ms. White said.

In the states, leading religious and socially conservative groups will be propped up by the Republican National Committee, which will encourage voter registration at churches and schedule round tables with local pastors and evangelical liaisons close to the president.

Some of the organizers call themselves “the watchmen on the wall,” a reference to guards who looked over Jerusalem from the Book of Isaiah.

The message to energize Christian conservatives has twin purposes: to inspire them to celebrate their victories and to stoke enough grievance to prod them to vote.

But in a midterm election, no singular political enemy will emerge the way Hillary Clinton did in 2016. Instead, leaders of the movement plan to lean hard into a message that fans fears and grudges: that the progressive movement and national media mock Christian life and threaten everything religious conservatives have achieved in the 15 months of the Trump administration.

“Show the left that you can put labels on us, you can shame us. But we’re not giving up,” said Tony Perkins, the president of the Family Research Council, who explained that many conservatives of faith see attacks on Mr. Trump as an attack on their judgment.

The Family Research Council has already activated its network of 15,000 churches, half of which have “culture impact ministries” that organize congregations to be more socially and civically engaged. The group’s efforts will gear up with voter registration drives around the Fourth of July and voter education that will focus on a half-dozen states that could determine control of the Senate.

Their tactics are almost identical to the work they used during the presidential campaign to unite a fractured evangelical base. The June meeting in Washington is a follow-up to a gathering in New York in the summer of 2016 that soothed tensions after it became apparent that Mr. Trump would be the Republican nominee.

Leaders of the Christian right have not only largely accepted Mr. Trump’s flaws and moved on; they seem to almost dare the president’s opponents to throw more at him. Ms. Nance said she heard a common sentiment from volunteers and supporters who did not seem bothered by the allegations of Mr. Trump’s infidelity. “We weren’t looking for a husband,” she said. “We were looking for a body guard.”

Concerned Women for America’s fund-raising pitch claims, “This is our Esther moment,” referring to the biblical heroine whose resourcefulness saved Persia’s Jews from annihilation hundreds of years before Jesus. The group plans to have get-out-the-vote organizers in 10 states where Democrats are defending Senate seats in states where Mr. Trump won.

Mike Mears, the Republican National Committee’s director of strategic partnerships and faith engagement, described the midterm campaign as “a call to arms.”

“You like what the president is doing?” he asked. “We need your help.”

The danger for Republicans is the many evangelicals who do not like what the president is doing. His petty insults, coarse language, lack of humility and private life are difficult to square with Christian faith, opponents say. The president has helped devalue character, morality and fidelity as essential qualities in political leaders, they say.

A meeting of evangelical leaders in Illinois last week featured a frank and candid discussion of the president’s failings, prompting some pro-Trump attendees to walk out.

But for evangelicals loyal to Mr. Trump, the criticism is irrelevant. They say that as challenging as the political realities may be, they remain hopeful that voters understand what is at stake. “We are living in unusual times,” said Jerry Falwell Jr., the president of Liberty University and one of Mr. Trump’s earliest evangelical supporters. “And after what happened in 2016, I think anything is possible.”

 

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1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

“Now even the Christian culture is O.K. with it,” said Jim Daly, the president of Focus on the Family, one of the nation’s largest evangelical groups. “That’s the sadness,” he added. “The next time a Democrat in the presidency has a moral failure, who’s going to be able to say anything?”

Daly seems to suggest that evangelicals will hesitate to be complete hypocrites.

Newsflash to Daly: they won't hesitate.  They'll jump right into attacking a Dem for being 1/10th the slimeball that Trump is, and they'll offer up some pathetic token explanation about how "this is different," and that will be that.

Expecting integrity, decency, or logic from the evangelicals is folly.

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1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

 

Was widely expected once Abbott 1) requested an AG opinion on the matter late last week, and 2) got a favorable opinion yesterday (Paxton's office said "if you think there's an emergency, that's probably enough basis to call a special election").  By the way, the turnaround on that AG opinion was, umm, SUPER fast.

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I'm not real sure I understand that play.  It's not like Republicans have been doing really well in special elections this year.  

That's also an area where Beto didn't do particularly well in the primary (likely owing to low name recognition).  A special election in that district could give Beto a chance to campaign in that region with a focused and energized Dem electorate and improve his name recognition.  And if a Dem somehow wins, Beto can get a lot of the credit, upping his buzz and contributions.

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Mitt Romney failed to win the Utah GOP endorsement on Saturday, and will have to slug out a primary on June 26.

Elsewhere tonight:

Dems flipped a NY State Assembly seat on Long Island that had been red for 40 years.

The special election for the House seat in Arizona in a district that went 20+ for Trump.

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NYT has called the AZ-08 race for the Republican, who is leading by 6 points with about 80% of the total vote counted (most early/vote by mail ballots). If the result holds, it would be a +19 swing for the Ds from 2016 results. The district is CVI +13 R, meaning only 93 districts are more Republican. Both candidates were plain vanilla, no scandals, no lack of money, so no excuses for the GOP.

The partisan breakdown for the district by registration is 49/30/21 R/D/I. Looking at the current score of 53/47 R/D, there are a significant number of R -> D crossover voters and independents are breaking heavily for the D. That's a nasty combo for the Republicans.

 

 

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The Arizona-08 Congressional election results are final, Republican Lesko: 52.6% and Democrat Tipirneni: 47.4%.  Only a 5.2 point victory for Republicans in this deep red district is amazing. I hope this means we are in for a Blue Tsunami in November.

Quote

 

 

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Moreover,  AZ has a pretty aggressive earlier voter system that the includes mailing ballots to repeat early voters.  The district skews older, and heavily GOP.  This is screaming warning for the GOP.  The district is basically custom built to get GOP voters to polls, even during mid terms.  The GOP candidate ran a smart campaign, lots of GOTV, with coordinated national support.  

 

I’d say every GOP seat that is <R+15 is now in play.  I think GoLL predicted 50+ seats on the Shag, that might be the floor.

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18 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This was the most ominous special election for the GOP.

It was the Joe Arpio district.

Hey baw, you banned from TD? 

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The Arizona-08 Congressional election results are final, Republican Lesko: 52.6% and Democrat Tipirneni: 47.4%.  Only a 5.2 point victory for Republicans in this deep red district is amazing. I hope this means we are in for a Blue Tsunami in November.

Quote

 

 

Edited by Texas73
Already posted

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The median age of the 155,000 mail in voters was 67.  Besides the fact that that demographic overwhelmingly votes Republican  it is amazing a Congressional district is that elderly.

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If McCain retires next month the Democrats could pick up two senate seats in AZ.

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1 hour ago, RayDog said:

If McCain retires next month the Democrats could pick up two senate seats in AZ.

He's not going to retire before the end of May. I know it sounds goulish, but basically, they are trying to keep him alive through May 30 so Ducey can appoint his successor (likely Cindy McCain or John Kyl) to serve through 2020 and avoid a special election this year.  If he makes it past May 30, then he'll probably retire.  He hasn't made a vote in 6 months.

Edited by Bateshorn

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1 hour ago, Texas73 said:

The median age of the 155,000 mail in voters was 67.  Besides the fact that that demographic overwhelmingly votes Republican  it is amazing a Congressional district is that elderly.

Fuck the olds who swim like Scrooge McDuck in their Social Security checks, but vote for fucks that want to lock the rest of us out of it.

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On 4/7/2018 at 12:06 AM, cactusflinthead said:

Farenthold finally decided it is time to quit.

Dude seems really weird.

And what's the story behind hot wheels wanting to hold the special election so soon?

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1 hour ago, relapse98 said:

Dude seems really weird.

And what's the story behind hot wheels wanting to hold the special election so soon?

Make the most of a favorable map and weak opponent is my bet. I looked at the likely D candidate. I am not inspired 

 

There is this on the feed. Cilliza 

 

ccording to CNN's own resident big brain Harry Enten, "the average improvement for the Democrats has been 17 percentage points versus the partisan baseline. That's better than any party out of power has done in the lead-up to a midterm cycle since at least 1994.

Edited by cactusflinthead
Mo stuff

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mpu


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