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2020 Hurricane Season w/ special guest Covid-19

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22 minutes ago, Telegraph_it said:

Not so fast y’all. 
 

 

Evil MoPac is one funny MFer. I'd like to think he's one of us.

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Maybe he wants to stay in Mexico 🇲🇽

Feel for them, thats a crazy amount of rain.

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3 hours ago, Dewey said:

Maybe he wants to stay in Mexico 🇲🇽

Feel for them, thats a crazy amount of rain.

I can completely relate with them... wish I didn't but... #HarveyGonnaHarvey 

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Can't take advantage of decent upper atmosphere conditions and warm water if you dissipate over CA.

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They got it veering to the left at the Y, i fully expect rain Sunday and Monday on the coast.

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Is it wrong that I’m rooting for it to heads towards Austin for rain purposes? 

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21 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Is it wrong that I’m rooting for it to heads towards Austin for rain purposes? 

If it's wrong, I don't want to be right.

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Mon-Tues will be abnormally hot, even in a hot week, because this thing will pull down dry air on its west side and it'll sink and compress.  102° or even a bit more is not out of the question for Tuesday.

Especially memorable is when Rita turned right at Albequerque (or just before Galveston), turned Beaumont into a shithole (wait, it was already!) and pulled down tons of continental air, by that time nice and hot in August, and we had temps for 2 days of 109° and 110°.  This won't be that bad because it's still early in the hot season and the landmass hasn't heated up yet.  

Enjoy the heat.  Then a "cold" front comes through and takes it down to a minty-fresh 98° midweek.

Being on the west side of a storm, outside of the rain bands, uh, sucks. (There is a tiny chance of rain generated by the fringes of this storm coming over to us, but don't bet much on it).

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This one isn't going to be that bad.  I'd much rather have 8 inches of soaking rain than broil.

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I'm going down to our basement for the duration of this Hurricane/Tropical Storm.  It's been a long time since anybody has been down there, I don't even think the previous tenants of our home ever went down there.  But I'm told it's there and is the best place to ride out a storm if worst comes to worst.  I'll probably head down there later today to inspect it before the storm makes landfall.  But I'm such a Chicago badass, a tropical storm doesn't frighten me at all like a tornado used to.  

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Reporting in from Fort Walton Beach. We are about to the point of building an arc. Shits been raining for days non stop. P.s. I've never seen our pool so full.

 

 

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So this thing is going to sweep over NOLA, suck up all the COVID and then spawn Covnados in Misssippi, correct? Mother nature long game. I like it.

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On 6/4/2020 at 5:24 AM, Dewey said:

Maybe he wants to stay in Mexico 🇲🇽

Feel for them, thats a crazy amount of rain.

Yeah, it fucked up the Yucatan and QRoo. We've been sitting in Puerto Escondido waiting for the weather to clear up.

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6 hours ago, Mother mopar said:

We are about to the point of building an arc. Shits been raining for days non stop. 

Pics of chord?

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GFS forecasting a surface trough that lingers just off the coast of Texas for a couple days. It doesn't have a closed surface low, but barometric pressures are lower than base environment pressures currently are. This is the GoM, so it is something to keep your eye on. Regardless there will be rain, lots of rain for the gulf coast.

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1 hour ago, Calihorn said:

GFS forecasting a surface trough that lingers just off the coast of Texas for a couple days. It doesn't have a closed surface low, but barometric pressures are lower than base environment pressures currently are. This is the GoM, so it is something to keep your eye on. Regardless there will be rain, lots of rain for the gulf coast.

I thought the dry conditions associated with the Saharan dust entering the Gulf in a couple days was supposed to snuff that out?? 

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9 minutes ago, Stella Link said:

I thought the dry conditions associated with the Saharan dust entering the Gulf in a couple days was supposed to snuff that out?? 

This, maybe rain but a storm isn't going to form

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Yeah, we likely won't get a storm out of this, but there will be lots of rain for a couple days before the SAL moves in.

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Posted (edited)

Might be something in the gulf this week.

EDIT; holy ninja Hate!

Edited by Calihorn

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Possible tropical wave heading towards Texas this week. 

file.php?id=16428&t=1

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located over eastern Hispaniola and the adjacent
waters of the southwestern Atlantic is expected to move
west-northwestward over the next several days and enter the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday, and then move across
the central Gulf on Wednesday and reach the northwestern Gulf on
Thursday. This disturbance is currently producing only minimal
shower activity, but environmental conditions are expected to become
at least marginally conducive for development by Wednesday or
Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

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Posted (edited)

While we’re all looking out that far, there’s an interesting feature in the Gulf now.

 

image.png

image.png

Edited by Rip76

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I don't wanna get all "Opening Pandora's Box" here, but I would imagine that having to evacuate Houston/Corpus/RGV hospitals during this pandemic due to a hurricane would literally be about the worst thing that could happen to Texas since the U.S. Government authorized a nuclear detonation over Houston in "Independence Day"?  

We had a real chance to curb this thing in January and then another one in March.  We could have smashed the shit out of the curve.  And now, with Hurricane season upon us...we're gonna have to watch as 3,000-5,000 new cases along the gulf coast arise every day.  Kinda hard to get care in a hospital or ICU when the fucking hospital isn't there anymore but rather has been loaded onto busses for inland.  My god, the blood on some people's hands.  

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Invest 90L is up now for the Low pressure just South of Galveston.

 

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Posted (edited)

Good day to have the front door resealed on my Galveston home built it the 1880s.   Sucks I had to reschedule the window work.  

Edited by Xian

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Is this why we are forecast to get rain every day the rest of July (that started last week)? I'm tired of the rain.  

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Here is the latest gulf update from Jeff Lindner. There are some things worth watching over the next 5-10 days.

 

90L:

Tropical wave and associated 1009mb area of low pressure over Jackson County, TX is resulting in a favorable low level convergence zone across SE TX this morning with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms mainly along and south of I-10. Given a saturated air column rainfall rates of 1-3 inches have been recorded over portions of Galveston and Brazoria Counties with this activity. Expect bands and waves of showers and thunderstorms to continue to move inland from the Gulf of Mexico through much of the morning and then a decrease in coverage this afternoon. Some heavy rainfall can be expected, but storm motions have been fast this morning. Main threat will be street flooding in any areas of sustained training or banding.

 

Tropical Wave (central Cuba)

A tropical wave axis located from southern FL southward to central Cuba is moving WNW with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Radar data from Key West indicates a broad low or mid level feature within this wave axis. This wave will move into the SE Gulf of Mexico late today and then across the central Gulf on Wednesday and into the NW Gulf Thursday. Conditions across the central and NW Gulf of Mexico appear favorable for some weak development of this wave as it nears the TX coast on Friday. Model guidance has shown an increasing trend for the formation of a weak low level circulation to develop with this wave and move generally toward the middle TX coast on Friday.

 

Regardless of development, widespread showers and thunderstorms will begin to impact the upper TX coast as early as late Thursday evening and more likely into Friday and lasting into Saturday. Some of this rainfall will be heavy. Winds will back to the NE over the coastal waters on Thursday and increase into the 15-25kt range with seas building to 3-5 feet by late Thursday and likely higher on Friday. NE surface winds and increasing seas will result in increasing tides along the upper TX coast late Thursday into Friday. Changes to the forecast are likely for the end of the week depending on any additional development of this feature.

 

NHC currently gives the system a 40% chance of development.

 

 

99L:

A tropical wave with a well defined low to mid level circulation and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is located midway between Africa and the Caribbean Sea and is moving westward at 10-15mph. Conditions are favorable for this wave to develop over the next 2-3 days before the feature encounters unfavorable conditions by late this week and this weekend.

 

NHC currently gives this system a 60% chance of development.

 

856ba48b31cb1c36e88d7c7b41d2d765.jpg

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I don't wanna get all "Opening Pandora's Box" here, but I would imagine that having to evacuate Houston/Corpus/RGV hospitals during this pandemic due to a hurricane would literally be about the worst thing that could happen to Texas since the U.S. Government authorized a nuclear detonation over Houston in "Independence Day"?  
We had a real chance to curb this thing in January and then another one in March.  We could have smashed the shit out of the curve.  And now, with Hurricane season upon us...we're gonna have to watch as 3,000-5,000 new cases along the gulf coast arise every day.  Kinda hard to get care in a hospital or ICU when the fucking hospital isn't there anymore but rather has been loaded onto busses for inland.  My god, the blood on some people's hands.  

The other issue less talked about is hurricane disaster recovery - I read an article that indicated a majority of relief workers are volunteers over the age of 55. There will likely be a shortage of both workers and PPE for workers making any disaster recovery effort much more difficult as well.

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90L will hopefully be welcome rain up in CenTex.  Not much punch expected, too close to the coast and moving towards it.  Thurs-Fri will be a good rain event, hopefully.  Some heavy rains on the coast, maybe some minor flooding in spots, but I ain't worried about that one, nothing but good in the hottest part of the year for Texas.

99L more potential for powerful storm, but lots to negotiate through.  Upper level winds are iffy although the Gulf is warm.  Not blinking much on it right now.  That one we'll see.  No guarantee it'll move this way yet.

Harvey no doubt as put some fear into people, but these won't be Harvey's.  In fact, very few storms will be Harveys, maybe one in 20 years avg.

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33 minutes ago, phdhorn said:


Harvey no doubt as put some fear into people, but these won't be Harvey's.  In fact, very few storms will be Harveys, maybe one in 2020 years that's way above avg.

Fixed it for you, because you know...it's fucking 2020.  

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19 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Fixed it for you, because you know...it's fucking 2020.  

LOL since its 2020, that storm will probably be if Harvey and Katrina had a baby and then that baby slammed into Galveston.  

Because, 2020. 

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, stone oak said:

spacer.png

That Tropical Weather Outlook photo looks like a Bald Eagle went in for an X-ray of its head.  And the doctor is showing it to him like, 'Welp, you see this here?  You have a giant piece of shit lodged in your skull.'  And the Bald Eagle, now dejected and sad from his once mighty role as being the proud emblem of the United States of America asks, 'Why in the world would I have a giant stool lodged in my skull?'  And the doctor replies, 'Because it's 2020, wait until you see the hurricane that'll wipe out your flock on top of all this...Shithead.' 

What a perfect metaphor for what's happening to our country right now.  The Bald Eagle with a piece of shit lodged in its skull.  

Edited by Lobo

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LOL since its 2020, that storm will probably be if Harvey and Katrina had a baby and then that baby slammed into Galveston.  
Because, 2020. 
It'd leave Galveston perfectly unscathed, because 2020.

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Oh, sorry, bit of an update... the thing I was referring to above moving into Texas on the weekend isn't yet a named invested low, it's just a wave.  That's obviously the one which could get strong, but right now I doubt it.  99L is out there in the Atlantic well east of the Windward Islands, still well out of the Caribbean.  Whatever that does won't become relevant until early next week.  And of course very sketchy info on this point about that one.

Anyway, the storm of particular interest to us is that wave over Cuba.  Watching that one for good rain over the weekend, hopefully not much more.

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