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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only (no politics)

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Lawsuits filed to change the state's rules on nursing home visitors

https://www.kxan.com/news/coronavirus/nursing-home-investigations/families-sue-gov-abbott-claim-texas-is-violating-constitutional-rights-of-nursing-home-residents/

Quote

Renneberg said her father remained healthy for four months after the pandemic began, but he ultimately tested positive for the virus and later died. 

“To know they’ve suffered months of cruel isolation, and you’ve had your heart ripped out? It’s a tormenting process that you weren’t able to be there with them for their last months. Their last months,” she cried. “The government has taken that away from us. The government is the one that’s responsible for the cruelty to my family.” 

Her attorney, Warren Norred, said they are concerned about how long these restrictions have been in place. 

“We wouldn’t have filed this a day into this or a week into this,” Norred said. “We’ve had multiple plaintiffs die and pass away while we are trying to find some remedy for them.”

Quote

....the Texas Health and Human Services Commission (HHSC) restricted access to vulnerable long-term care facilities — banning any non-essential visitors, including family members.

If they are successful, they'll get access to relatives.  @TwiceHorn or @Ghost of LL or the other 48% of Surly posters who are lawyers perhaps have a better take on it.

I see both sides.  On the one hand, you want to limit access and protect those relatives who need a nursing home.

On the other hand, like this lady, her dad was in there 4 months after the pandemic began, and even "isolated" from family/friends, he still got it and basically died alone.

And that kicked in back in March, and we are closing in on October.  How long can you prevent family members from having access to those folks?

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28 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

100% compliance is the expectation?  From parents of public school students?  

Some of the Surly teachers like @Knoxtnhorn can chime in here with his horror stories, but let's just say there is a wide range of functioning among all parents of public school students. 

When my oldest was in elementary school, there was a kid in his class who showed up to school multiple times in urine-stained clothes after peeing on himself the night before and the parent(s) not bothering to wash or change clothes.  And kids who would show up with nothing in their lunchbox and no money for lunch.  Or the mother (who didn't work) who sent her kid to school with a 105 temperature.

For most families, a simple checklist or form won't be a problem.  But if the expectation is 100%?  Good luck.   It's harsh to say, but some of these parents simply don't give a shit about their kid or their school.

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I guess it's going to boil down to weighing the governmental interest in keeping olds safe/preventing virus spread in facilities versus the individual right to visitors.  The key is probably how that individual right is characterized.  The right could be characterized as a fundamental one, akin to freedom of travel or association, or something less fundamental.  The more fundamental the right, the more scrutiny the government action is going to receive.

Norred is kind of a goofball and right-wing gadfly.  He's aggy if that's any surprise.  But he's had some success.

I don't have a good feel for how this might come out.

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12 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

For most families, a simple checklist or form won't be a problem.  But if the expectation is 100%?  Good luck.   It's harsh to say, but some of these parents simply don't give a shit about their kid or their school.

Oh, my wife was a teacher, and time and again she had to deal with people who sent their blatantly obviously sick kids to school. 

Hell, there's a Surly poster whose wife is a school nurse, and she's dealt with plenty of parents who gave their kids Tylenol or whatever to help keep the fever down long enough to get them in school, so they could go work/do whatever.  Flu wouldn't go through kids like it does, if more families would/could keep their kids home when they are sick.

100% is not realistic, but if you can get enough folks to do this, it doesn't have to get fucked up for every other kid/family.

And you can't say "we are trying to get 90% to do this", because then a shitload of people will think they can be a part of that 10% that isn't doing it.

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4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

And you can't say "we are trying to get 90% to do this", because then a shitload of people will think they can be a part of that 10% that isn't doing it.

Good point - if you're going to do the form (which is in itself a questionable practice as how do you know truthiness of the respondent) this is the best argument.

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49 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

100% compliance is the expectation?  From parents of public school students?  

Some of the Surly teachers like @Knoxtnhorn can chime in here with his horror stories, but let's just say there is a wide range of functioning among all parents of public school students. 

When my oldest was in elementary school, there was a kid in his class who showed up to school multiple times in urine-stained clothes after peeing on himself the night before and the parent(s) not bothering to wash or change clothes.  And kids who would show up with nothing in their lunchbox and no money for lunch.  Or the mother (who didn't work) who sent her kid to school with a 105 temperature.

For most families, a simple checklist or form won't be a problem.  But if the expectation is 100%?  Good luck.   It's harsh to say, but some of these parents simply don't give a shit about their kid or their school.

(Disclaimer: 3rd glass of bourbon; please forgive my grammar below.)

I taught for 5 years in the poorest school in Knoxville.  Going off memory, the breakdown was something along the lines of...

1) 5% fully functioning, always fed, always dressed in clean clothes, always did homework.

2) 20% really low income/low education level, tried their best, did what they could but were still at a disadvantage monetarily/socially/academically

3) 25% just going through the motions, if I asked them to do something, they would, but would do the bare minimum

4) 50% complete clusterF, no future whatsoever, most fathers missing or in prison, many moms missing or too busy effing around, etc...

Though the socioeconomic level is not that much higher where I currently teach (near suburb of Dallas), I have MUCH better family support here.  All of my current students have families that fall into either Category 1 or 2.   I believe teachers have a huge hand in how much the families support their children.  Many parents have no idea what to do or how to help their kids - especially foreign language speakers. I've made it a point to do everything I can to welcome and embrace each and every one of them.  Instead of the, "Your child needs to do this" which I see far too often in my school, I've always made it a point to say, "This is what we need to do.  How can I help you and your child?"  And, Good Lord, I really did spend 3 straight hours the other night texting with a Vietnamese parent with each text requiring the Google Translate app.

I'll give you an example.  Before face-to-face, I was in the office a couple of weeks ago when a mom of a child showed up to ask how/what to do with her child's distance learning.  She was a kindergarten student, so she didn't have anything to draw on from last year.  Anyway, our secretary called the teacher, who was at lunch.  Teacher said she'd be down in a bit.  10 minutes later, the mom is still sitting out front, waiting for the teacher.  I go outside and introduce myself, talk to the mom, welcome her child to school, etc... This is not a "Hey look at how cool I am" point.  The point is that I can easily see the mom being discouraged from interaction in the future because she's just made to wait while the teacher finishes lunch.  

I guess I didn't really address your @Message Board User point.  Yes, there are quite a few folks that probably shouldn't have had kids.  But, it's been my experience that you can alleviate a lot of that by building relationships at the outset of each school year.  Unfortunately, it probably only takes one year of bad teaching to screw up this ideal.

 

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BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

Edited by Knoxtnhorn

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5 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some everybody on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

Rings a bell, but can't recall the details.

And fixed.

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9 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

I remember that. I think I donated but fuck I can’t remember last week. I hope I did. Willing to again 

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17 minutes ago, Knoxtnhorn said:

BTW, just curious...

How many people recall the ShaggyBevo drive to help students of my last school in Knoxville?  This would have been in the spring of '17.  I'll be happy to share the story if some aren't aware.  I know some on this site - including me - can be a bit much, but, this was pretty cool.

It was pretty damn cool.  

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Daughter who teaches third grade informed me today that 1/3 of her class is remote.

Sounds good until you hear the details. 1/3 constitutes one of the 3 third grade home rooms. She still has two full classes of 20+students face to face. The other group she teaches by zoom for a third of the day.

How is that okay? Full fucking classrooms with kids who can’t keep masks on etc.

JFC.

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Apologies for the tl;dr.  I get talkative when I drink.

So going back to my 2nd post.  It was nearing the end of my last year in Knoxville.  I had this kid in my class that had - quite literally - the worst home life you could imagine.   The worst (or best) part was that the kid was as happy as can be.  Kind of like Charlie in Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.  Horrible life but very positive personality.  Well, one day the kid comes in with a badly bruised and knotted forehead.  He told me his stepmom had slammed his head into a table.  The way he told it was so matter of fact.  Kind of like, "Why is there chocolate on your face?"  "Because I just ate a chocolate bar."  The poor kid never stopped smiling even when abused.  It absolutely destroyed me.  That day happened to be standardized test day and I was to proctor another class.  I hid in the bathroom for 2 hours because I couldn't maintain myself.  Hell, I'm tearing up now.

That night I mentioned it on Shaggy to vent.  Someone piped up and suggested that he would like to donate money to this kid to buy him something nice.  I wasn't really comfortable with the idea; however, in knowing it would do good for the kid, I accepted.  More and more people began to donate, so it got to the point to which I asked if it was ok to split the money and buy something for each kid in the room.  More people donated, so I ended up getting stuff for each kid in the grade + a cupcake party for the entire school.  BTW, each kid got something they wanted and something educational.  I can't recall how much was raised, but my Amazon history still gives me suggestions for things like Volcano kits and educational books.  

It was pretty awesome being able to pass out the toys, books, and games.  I was able to leave a school and community on a really high note.

Edited by Knoxtnhorn

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Not Knox, but the armchair epidimeologists on this site crack me up!  Masks don't work, herd immunity  is  here, the virus is just like  the flu!

 

Meanwhile we're headed to 400k dead, economy is in the shitter, no vaccine in sight, but everything is awesome.  Get your heads out of your ass and figure out how to live until summer 2020 with restrictions.  The state government of Texas recognizes this as they are going to continue to suspend the open meetings act rules requiring in person meetings for political subdivisions at least past the end of the year.

If you buy the bullshit that we're on the downswing and not just in another cycle, I don't know what to tell you.

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Not Knox, but the armchair epidimeologists on this site crack me up!  Masks don't work, herd immunity  is  here, the virus is just like  the flu!
 
Meanwhile we're headed to 400k dead, economy is in the shitter, no vaccine in sight, but everything is awesome.  Get your heads out of your ass and figure out how to live until summer 2020 with restrictions.  The state government of Texas recognizes this as they are going to continue to suspend the open meetings act rules requiring in person meetings for political subdivisions at least past the end of the year.
If you buy the bullshit that we're on the downswing and not just in another cycle, I don't know what to tell you.
Lighten up Francis.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk

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1 hour ago, Footballpants said:

Lighten up Francis.

Sent from my SM-G973U using Tapatalk
 

You don't even know how to turn your autosig off.  Tapatalk is balls.

 

And I am definitely lightening up with football starting.  Everyone is excited to watch us stomp a mudhole in UTEP today.

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101 cases in Austin yesterday and show data movement as tends to happen sometimes (curse you data entry clerk). Still higher school age cases as a % of yesterday's cases vs their normal representation. AISD should have turned in 1st week CV19 positives so it will be interesting to see once this becomes available.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/11  vs 9/10 -1 2 16 40 23 17 1 4 1 -2 101
% of Daily Change -0.99% 1.98% 15.84% 39.60% 22.77% 16.83% 0.99% 3.96% 0.99% -1.98%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.94% 8.40% 26.75% 21.39% 16.32% 11.51% 6.56% 3.23% 2.38%   27,525

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49 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

AISD should have turned in 1st week CV19 positives so it will be interesting to see once this becomes available.

AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools.  And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow.  They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.

I'm more worried about UT.  As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools.  And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow.  They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.

I'm more worried about UT.  As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.

Good point re: AISD ( I think O'Henry had 5 kids in attendance eg). Will be interesting to see where it falls though. Fingers crossed we will be good in regards to hospitalizations & UT as there have been as of last week no hospitalizations across a large sample of college students returning this fall.

Travis had like 18 admits I believe yesterday still well over the 10 & under needed to move to Stage 2.

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

Good point re: AISD ( I think O'Henry had 5 kids in attendance eg). Will be interesting to see where it falls though. Fingers crossed we will be good in regards to hospitalizations & UT as there have been as of last week no hospitalizations across a large sample of college students returning this fall.

Travis had like 18 admits I believe yesterday still well over the 10 & under needed to move to Stage 2.

From what I understand as far as kids at the physical schools, it's kids that have no other options (can't be left home alone), and it's a fairly low number.

AISD is sending out questionnaires, teachers are talking to parents, etc. like crazy to get a grasp on how many students will be back next month, and many parents are probably being pretty cagey and wanting to see what things look like in a week or two. 

If we can get to stage 2 by the end of September (I know, huge "if"), you might see more kids returning to school.  Hell, maybe the schools can open up more slots (I'm not completely sure on the 25% thing - ask @Larry T. Spider ).

Edited by atomheartbevo

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The city must be happy with the trends.  Austin Parks and Rec are opening up more facilities (as is San Marcos)

https://www.statesman.com/news/20200911/austin-san-marcos-to-reopen-parks-amenities-rec-facilities

Quote

Austin’s Parks and Recreation Department on Friday said more park amenities would be made available and some programs would restart as early as Saturday. In San Marcos, city officials announced that parks would reopen starting Wednesday.

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The Parks Department said the decision to reopen Austin’s park amenities was made in consultation with Austin Public Health and city leaders. As of Friday, Austin-Travis County’s weekly average number of new hospital admissions for the coronavirus has stayed below 20 since late August, down from a peak of 75 on July 8.

Quote

In Hays County, San Marcos city officials plan to reopen all public facilities, riverfront parks, neighborhood park playgrounds, athletic complexes, and tennis and basketball courts Wednesday, starting at 8 a.m. But Children’s Park Playscape won’t reopen until Sept. 18 because of previously scheduled tree work, officials said.

These locations and facilities will be available for public use Saturday:

  • ‒ Barton Creek spillway, aka “Barking Springs.”
  • ‒ Disc golf courses.
  • ‒ Neighborhood tennis courts.
  • ‒ Outdoor adult exercise equipment.
  • ‒ Campsites at Emma Long Metropolitan Park.

Hell yeah - the kids like camping there, and it's close by, and it's getting cooler.

Edited by atomheartbevo

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21 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 When my oldest was in elementary school, there was a kid in his class who showed up to school multiple times in urine-stained clothes after peeing on himself the night before

 

Kid has Surly poster potential written all over him. 

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

AISD has very few kids and staff in physical schools.  And just got the email yesterday that the phase-in in October will be very slow.  They are going the 25% occupancy route it sounds like.

I'm more worried about UT.  As long as they don't cause an increase in hospitalizations, we can get through this.

Then data out of Georgia should be very encouraging.

Hospitalizations continue to decrease (K-12 in-person since early August) and then after an initial surge in cases among 18-29 year olds likely due to mass testing, cases have also started to decrease, suggesting those positive cases have been isolating OR those positive cases weren't contagious.

 

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Not loving that ~8% positivity rate, but I hope that this is just a biased sample of more active individuals and doesn't represent the broader student population. Anyways, I assume that these counts will hit the ATX numbers at some point.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Not loving that ~8% positivity rate, but I hope that this is just a biased sample of more active individuals and doesn't represent the broader student population.

It doesn't.

Most updated numbers from UT indicates positivity rate is between 1-2%.

https://coronavirus.utexas.edu/ut-austin-covid-19-dashboard

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2 hours ago, Anastasis said:

Not loving that ~8% positivity rate, but I hope that this is just a biased sample of more active individuals and doesn't represent the broader student population. 

Well, covid does make you want to get out and go do stuff.

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Has there been any more scuttlebutt on tests leaning too hard on what they call positive?  I recall even NYT was on that trail a few weeks ago something about cycles and what not but at least for me it's gone cold.

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36 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Has there been any more scuttlebutt on tests leaning too hard on what they call positive?  I recall even NYT was on that trail a few weeks ago something about cycles and what not but at least for me it's gone cold.

Of course there has...but...well...I've ranted enough on this subject and most of the denizens on this thread know my feelings.

But yes...

 

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spacer.png

"An image of SARS-COV-2 virions infecting the cells that line the airways of our lungs. The image is taken at 1 micrometer magnification. Image: Camille Ehre/The New England Journal of Medicine"

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMicm2023328

https://gizmodo.com/horrifying-images-show-how-the-coronavirus-ravages-our-1844946904

Quote

The ball-looking things are SARS-CoV-2, while the bendy churro-looking structures are cells with cilia, the hair-like projections that move in rhythm to clear debris, mucus and microbes from the airways, allowing us to breathe normally. Ehre found that SARS-CoV-2 was particularly fond of infecting these cililated cells, and that once it did, it went to town making more of itself.

Quote

“When we looked at these infected cultures under an SEM microscope, the most striking observation was the astonishing number of virions produced by a single infected cell,” Ehre said over email. “Some of these infected cells were so engorged with viruses that they rounded up and detached from the epithelium, giving the impression that they were about to burst.”

The high levels of SARS-CoV-2 produced by airway cells (a 3-to-1 ratio in the study) aptly helps explain why the coronavirus can so greatly affect different parts of the body nearby, like the lining of our nasal cavity, which is crucial to our sense of smell, according to Ehre.

The loss of smell?

Quote

“A huge viral load is available to spread within an infected individual and infect the olfactory epithelium, explaining the common symptom of loss of smell, and also infect the salivary glands, which would explain the symptom of dry mouth,” she said. “The worst is when viruses go to the lungs and produce pneumonia that causes shortness of breath and ultimately can lead to death.”

 

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2 hours ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

That's 8% of students who reasonably believed they had a chance of testing negative.

Eh.  It's 8% of students that are willing enough  to interact closely with other human beings that they want to go sit with 25,000 of them, which implies they've likely already been closely interacting with other human beings.  They're a self-selecting sample that is likely to trend higher toward infection and I'm honestly surprised it was only 8% of this group that tested positive.

The students that are being careful and steering clear of interaction, aren't going to want to go to a football game with 25,000 other people, so they're not going to come in for the test at all.

Edited by utee94

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Nice low case numbers yesterday in Travis County with only 53 cases. still high % wise in the 10-19 age group but based off low count so still a small # of cases there.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/12 vs 9/11 2 4 8 10 15 9 3 0 2 0 53
% of Daily Change 3.77% 7.55% 15.09% 18.87% 28.30% 16.98% 5.66% 0.00% 3.77% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.42% 26.74% 21.40% 16.32% 11.49% 6.55% 3.23% 2.37%   27,578

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Hospitalizations still looking great. Seems like if Labor Day was going to be a major problem we'd start seeing a little bit of upward movement from that, but we're not. That's really encouraging. If Austin still looks good over the next week, that's a really great sign. 

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Travis County saw the biggest day in 10-19 since Mind July with 48 cases and a whopping 39.02% share of daily cases (there were 123 cases yesterday (high for a Sunday)).

A number of private schools in Austin went to in person schooling this past week so I am wondering if that is what we are seeing (along with Freshmen at UT).

Nice low numbers in the 60+ categories which will help with hospitalizations as well the combined 10-19 & 20 - 29 being ~73% of all cases yesterday (vs their normal share of ~34%). 10 new admits in hospital yesterday for those of you holding out hopes AISD plays fall sports.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/13 vs 9/12 0 3 48 42 10 7 8 3 1 1 123
% of Daily Change 0.00% 2.44% 39.02% 34.15% 8.13% 5.69% 6.50% 2.44% 0.81% 0.81%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.55% 26.77% 21.35% 16.28% 11.47% 6.53% 3.22% 2.36%   27,701

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Good news on mortality for Travis County. They finally unborked their mortality tracker (had been pointing to single gender vs all across multiple categories).

Still seeing ~82% of all deaths from 60 years old and up. Encouraging thing is the last two weeks we have only seen 22 deaths in total which is down by ~50% from prior couple of weeks and even more than that from Mid July onwards. All in all things are moving in right direction. Mortality rates are improving even at the 80yo+ levels (down below 20% for 1st time in a long time)

Kids still VERY unlikely to die from this disease. 0% for 1-9 & 0.04% for 10-19 (since March for Travis County). Again there is gap between 8/29 & 9/12 due to TCAD issues. Any numbers for 9/12 are over a 2 week period vs 1 week.

  10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total Deaths WoW Change
W/E 7/11 0 3 4 7 17 34 45 58 168  
W/E 7/18 0 2 4 9 21 37 55 75 203 35
W/E 7/25 0 2 4 10 27 47 58 93 241 38
W/E 8/1 0 2 6 11 35 56 63 103 276 35
W/E 8/8 1 2 6 11 36 64 65 113 298 22
W/E 8/15 1 2 6 13 39 74 77 124 336 38
W/E 8/22 1 2 6 14 43 78 84 130 358 22
W/E 8/29 1 2 7 14 46 80 93 138 381 23
W/E 9/12 1 2 7 15 47 88 98 145 403 22
Total Cases as of 9/12     2,321     7,374     5,903     4,502     3,170     1,807        890       654    
Mortality Rate as of 9/12 0.04% 0.03% 0.10% 0.31% 1.36% 4.32% 9.44% 19.88%    

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Another really good day for Travis County yesterday with 75 cases. Couple of fallouts in the <1 & >80 cohorts (this is happening weekly now as TCAD changes numbers fairly regularly). Again seeing over representation in the 10-19 age group compared to their normal share of cases. 11 new admits yesterday (10 the day prior).

Good news based on symptom timelines. Outside of that one bump back to 218 cases four days ago there doesn't appear to be a spike related to Labor Day.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/14 vs 9/13 -1 3 12 15 10 16 14 7 0 -1 75
% of Daily Change -1.33% 4.00% 16.00% 20.00% 13.33% 21.33% 18.67% 9.33% 0.00% -1.33%  
% of Total Cases 0.51% 2.95% 8.57% 26.75% 21.32% 16.29% 11.49% 6.54% 3.21% 2.35%   27,776

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Good. Austin seems to have things going in the right direction. I even think we’re getting past the potential labor day spike right? Anyway. Good job everyone. 

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Good. Austin seems to have things going in the right direction. I even think we’re getting past the potential labor day spike right? Anyway. Good job everyone. 

Hospital admits take around 10 days or so based off the past but I'd think we'd be seeing a little bit of an uptick already. If we stay flat through the weekend then there is no labor day spike. I'm optimistic.

 

At some point we've got to open things back up with the mask mandate still in place and enforced. Not only just because living life is good for people, but because we're going to end up with a lot of people already on the tipping point of being "over" the covid thing thinking it's nothing but a boy who cried wolf situation. I can't think of much reason to not open things pretty quickly if we stay flat, outside of political motivations.

 

Restaurants bars and gyms didn't spike it. Labor day didn't spike it. School didn't spike it. Let's keep masks on and live life, with the caveat that we'll act fast to ramp restrictions back up if the numbers turn bad.

 

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The credit for correcting all this state misinformation goes to a regular private citizen with (too much) time on his hands, did a bunch of his own research and calculations, and notified DSHS, whose been talking about all this fuckery for weeks:

https://twitter.com/JoeWo2020

But yeah, all summer long, the citizens of Texas have been fed a steady diet of bullshit regarding positivity rate.

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This all hit a little to close recently. My wife works at an elementary school and came home not feeling well yesterday. The school district contacted her and arranged a COVID test for her yesterday afternoon which was negative. A lady she works with on a regular basis also was tested and she was positive and also now has pneumonia.

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Big day yesterday (189) for Travis county but still in the unofficial BrazilHorn 100-200 Buoyancy Range. that we have seemed to have moved into the past two weeks.

Very large uptick in the 10-19 cases with a whopping 30.27% of yesterday's numbers being in this range. (~3.7x their normal share of cases). Many private schools started in person last week so this could be rearing its head now. One side note is the past three days of hospital admits have been lowest three day run since the first week of June. One positive side effect of the new cases skewing younger is that these folks by and large don't end up in the hospital. Around half of the normal case load yesterday came from 60+ groups which bodes well for deaths down the line.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 9/15 vs 9/14 1 5 56 58 29 10 17 6 3 0 185
% of Daily Change 0.54% 2.70% 30.27% 31.35% 15.68% 5.41% 9.19% 3.24% 1.62% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.95% 8.72% 26.78% 21.29% 16.22% 11.48% 6.52% 3.20% 2.34%   27,961

 

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12 hours ago, Message Board User said:

 

The credit for correcting all this state misinformation goes to a regular private citizen with (too much) time on his hands, did a bunch of his own research and calculations, and notified DSHS, whose been talking about all this fuckery for weeks:

https://twitter.com/JoeWo2020

But yeah, all summer long, the citizens of Texas have been fed a steady diet of bullshit regarding positivity rate.

This is why I have been saying positivity rate means jack shit. It is too easily skewed by public policy, reporting timelines etc. Track hospitalizations, that is what matters. You can also normalize for cases per 100,000 people or something. But getting spun up off of pos. rate is silly.

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12 hours ago, Hate said:

This all hit a little to close recently. My wife works at an elementary school and came home not feeling well yesterday. The school district contacted her and arranged a COVID test for her yesterday afternoon which was negative. A lady she works with on a regular basis also was tested and she was positive and also now has pneumonia.

Fuck. Be careful, depending on the test, it may produce false negatives or false positives. I hope she feels better. 

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13 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

One side note is the past three days of hospital admits have been lowest three day run since the first week of June

giphy.gif

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10 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

This is why I have been saying positivity rate means jack shit. It is too easily skewed by public policy, reporting timelines etc. Track hospitalizations, that is what matters. You can also normalize for cases per 100,000 people or something. But getting spun up off of pos. rate is silly.

Yup.

As I've pointed out before, our healthcare processes and legacy IT systems were never designed to report this type of data in real time.  The fact that municipalities, counties, and states are attempting to use this data as a metric to make real-time decisions with significant social and economic impacts, is a problem.  And it's a problem that can't and won't go away in the next 18-24 months.

But maybe we'll be better prepared for the next one...

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Fuck. Be careful, depending on the test, it may produce false negatives or false positives. I hope she feels better. 

Thanks, I appreciate it. The person that gave the test said they only have false positives. She said that if the test is negative then you absolutely positively do not have it, so that was good to hear.

 

I honestly think it is just bad allergies as the tree and ragweed pollens have gone through the roof in our area. The person that actually performed the swan test even asked her is she has allergies when they swabbed as they could see the inflammation in her nose.

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After declining steadily for some time, rona hospitalizations at the med center in Houston have started to plateau, but not quite at Mayish levels.  Not great, not terrible, like 3.6 roentgen 

f-TMC-daily-new-covid-19-hospitalizations-9-16-2020.png

m-TMC-2-week-projection-using-bed-occupancy-growth-9-16-2020.png

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