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StassneyHorn

Flipping the Texas State House 2020: 17<10

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Doubt they could get away with it.
I'm not sure what gives you this impression?

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Went to a PAC fundraiser for a group that supports Texas Democrats in local and statewide elections and I am now drinking all of the fucking kool aid. We’re going to flip the house for sure and then the senate and then Biden will win Texas and then Abbott and Patrick and Paxton and all their cronies will be run out of office and there is nothing they can do to stop it! 
 

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Polling from TX Data for Progress divided their results from 34 State House districts Targeted by Democrats and Republicans. Page 3 of link below.

In those districts Biden led Trump 49-42, but Cornyn led Hegar 43-41. When asked about the State House candidate, Democratic candidate beat Republican candidate 45-42.


https://filesforprogress.org/datasets/2020/9/dfp_tx_survey_key_findings_sept4.pdf

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Not sure if this is the best place, or voter suppression. That being said, I read up this morning on the redistricting potential. Can someone (Stassney, anyone) with more knowledge explain to me the process of redistricting? I know flipping the house is a big deal. But I also saw that the Governor has the power to veto, and if that happens, ballotpedia says the following:

Quote

In Texas, both congressional and state legislative district boundaries are drawn by the Texas State Legislature. These lines are subject to veto by the governor.[34]

If the state legislature is unable to approve a state legislative redistricting plan, a backup commission must draw the lines (the backup commission is not involved in congressional redistricting). This backup commission, established in 1948, comprises the following members:[34]

  1. Lieutenant governor
  2. Speaker of the Texas House of Representatives
  3. Attorney general
  4. State comptroller
  5. Commissioner of the General Land Office

The Texas Constitution requires that state legislative districts be contiguous and "that they preserve whole counties when population mandates permit."[34]

So, first, can someone explain to me the process that is supposed to work between the Texas house and Texas senate? Second, what stops Abbot from vetoing it no matter what and then basically having that clownshow of pieces of shit just draw an even more absurd set of districts than what we already have? Because every one of those motherfuckers are varying pieces of fucking shit, from the worst Dan Patrick all the way down to right wing bootlicker Prescott Bush, who seems to have no problems sucking any indiscriminate dick he needs to get along. 

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11 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not sure if this is the best place, or voter suppression. That being said, I read up this morning on the redistricting potential. Can someone (Stassney, anyone) with more knowledge explain to me the process of redistricting? I know flipping the house is a big deal. But I also saw that the Governor has the power to veto, and if that happens, ballotpedia says the following:

So, first, can someone explain to me the process that is supposed to work between the Texas house and Texas senate? Second, what stops Abbot from vetoing it no matter what and then basically having that clownshow of pieces of shit just draw an even more absurd set of districts than what we already have? Because every one of those motherfuckers are varying pieces of fucking shit, from the worst Dan Patrick all the way down to right wing bootlicker Prescott Bush, who seems to have no problems sucking any indiscriminate dick he needs to get along. 

Presumably, the Speaker would be a Democrat if the Democrats have a majority in the House.  So at least one of the five members of the commission would be a Democrat.

But it's all going to end up in court anyway.

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Just now, Ghost of LL said:

Presumably, the Speaker would be a Democrat if the Democrats have a majority in the House.  So at least one of the five members of the commission would be a Democrat.

But it's all going to end up in court anyway.

Well, I forgot that important part. Still 1 out of 5 isn't great.

What do you mean it's going to end up in court anyway?

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13 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Well, I forgot that important part. Still 1 out of 5 isn't great.

What do you mean it's going to end up in court anyway?

I mean, there's going to be a Voting Rights Act violation in there, and it's going to go to court.

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Luckily the SCOTUS has the final say on redistricting and what could possibly go wrong with that. 

Edited by Hank Scorpio

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So HD-28 is the Fort Bend County race Beto got involved with for Eliz Markowitz after dropping out of his presidential run.Did a ton of block walking and the race was nationalized. Markowitz lost by a good margin but it had the highest participation rate for any special election Lege seat if I’m not mistaken. Best opportunity for pickup was always in the general for 2020, not the special.

Well the guy she lost to, perennial candidate slumlord Gary Gates, has evicted 104 people in 34 low income apartment complexes during the pandemic. To be fair, this pace is much slower than the year before and he claims to be offering a good bit of help. But that is a headline that can wreck a candidate if utilized.

Fort Bend Rep. Gary Gates evicted over 100 tenants during the pandemic

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/news/houston-texas/houston/article/Fort-Bend-Rep-Gary-Gates-evicted-over-100-15568074.php?utm_campaign=CMS Sharing Tools (Premium)&utm_source=t.co&utm_medium=referral

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On 9/10/2020 at 5:23 PM, Hank Scorpio said:

Luckily the SCOTUS has the final say on redistricting and what could possibly go wrong with that. 

I believe SCOTUS said this summer they don’t have a role in it. 

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House will flip, it’s got sustained attention from national groups this cycle

Democratic allies fighting to flip Texas House join forces for $1.1 million digital ad campaign

 

The campaign will benefit 11 candidates in some of the most pivotal races to take control of the lower chamber.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/17/democrat-texas-legislature-campaign/

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chron endorsed sarah davis:

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/opinion/editorials/article/Editorial-We-recommend-Sarah-Davis-for-State-15585282.php

all of this would be great for someone representing kingwood.  completely ignores that the biggest issue next session is redistricting, and that sarah davis will almost certainly be voting with dan patrick/empower texas/eric opiela.

Quote

Gerrymandering looks like attorney and Republican operative Eric Opiela emailing about “OHRVS,” short for “Optimal Hispanic Republican Voting Strength.”

Or, as he wrote in 2011 in a now infamous email, “a measure of how Hispanic, and Republican at the same time, we can make a particular census block.”

Got it? Making a census block look Hispanic enough to make potential legal challengers (which used to include the U.S. Justice Department) look away while still helping a GOP candidate win.

https://www.mysanantonio.com/opinion/columnists/josh_brodesky/article/Texas-gerrymandering-transparent-and-ugly-11273599.php

 

 

also, got surveyed again by text for HD134.  not random, same survey company as one of the priors, text asked that since i'd participated before would i participate again

Edited by elfenix

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Oddly I don't see a lot of Biden yard signs in my area, but I am seeing a shit ton of Jeff Whitfield signs.  As many or more than Cason all over my normally super red suburbs.  It's difficult to not notice even if you're not looking for it.  

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11 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Voting starts in 15 days, remember to vote all the way down and flip the house. Deadline to register is one week from today.

Shouldn’t we wait one week because of that weird Texas GOP lawsuit on early voting?

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On 9/28/2020 at 12:03 PM, StassneyHorn said:

No, fuck that. Until they slap it down or go against the Governor, don’t fiddle around.

That stupid-ass lawsuit isn't going anywhere.  Every judge in Travis County is a Dem.  And then it goes up to the Austin Court of Appeals, where four of the six justices are Dems.  They'll bottle it up so bad it'll never see the light of day.

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12 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That stupid-ass lawsuit isn't going anywhere.  Every judge in Travis County is a Dem.  And then it goes up to the Austin Court of Appeals, where four of the six justices are Dems.  They'll bottle it up so bad it'll never see the light of day.

They should offer to get to it right after Collin County gets to Ken Paxton's Securities Fraud case. 

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1 hour ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

They should offer to get to it right after Collin County gets to Ken Paxton's Securities Fraud case. 

I don’t know.

 

its fun to always introduce him as ken “ indictment” Paxton both on this forum and in conversation in person.

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7 minutes ago, Bookman said:

It was filed at midnight, mandamus directly with the Texas Supreme Court.

http://www.search.txcourts.gov/Case.aspx?cn=20-0751&coa=cossup

Yeah--and they really don't like those.  A Realtor did exactly the same thing about some Covid thing earlier this year out of Harris County and they kicked it out.  I don't see why this will be any different.

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mpu


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