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Markets still falling like whoa


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3 minutes ago, bernorange said:

JPow indicated they likely stay the course (no hikes) in November and wait for more info before deciding what to do in Dec. Their data has shown signs that long term inflation is reacting to the rate hikes they have done so far, but other data shows there is more work to do. Also, jPow says commercial real estate doesn't affect the TBTF banks, so that industry can be a sacrificial lamb to the inflation targeting altar. Oh - he also said that Tbill yields are beyond the Fed's control - the market is reacting to fiscal policy (federal spending/deficits).

Yield Curve Control is inevitable

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S&P 500 closed below its 200 day moving average today.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-10-20-2023/card/s-p-500-closes-below-200-day-moving-average-uiuwICarQNppSQ1whLOn?mod=finance_lcmarkets_pos1

From Google bard FWIW

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has closed below its 200-day moving average 38 times. Of those 38 times, 31 have resulted in a bear market, which is about 80% of the time.

Edited by UTGrad98
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Doom on the horizon?

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... Michael Gayed, a portfolio manager at Tidal Financial who offers trading strategies via the Lead Lag Report, and Michael Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management. They posted a discussion on Wednesday that spoke of an “imminent market crash.”

“What we’re seeing in Treasurys should make a lot of people nervous. I’ve never seen anything like it, and I’ve been following this market since the mid-90s,” said Kramer, who recently discussed how the new bull market was already over.
...
He said the surge in Treasury yields may be “near the end,” but there may be a bit to go. Kramer also told subscribers on Wednesday that the S&P 500 decline “doesn’t look complete yet,” and 4,115 can’t be ruled out.

One chart Kramer has been focused on for a while is shown here, and in follow-up comments he tells MarketWatch that he suspects, as he has for a while, that the S&P 500 has been in the grips of a long bear market rally, rather than the start of a new bull market:
...
So after the crash in Treasurys, Gayed is on guard for Part 2, when “credit spreads blow out and stocks collapse.” Note, that widening credit spreads indicate looming defaults.

“If I’m right, the mother of all short squeezes is still set to come in Treasurys, and people suddenly realize too late they were tricked into a narrative around AI and a ‘bull market’ that in reality made them exit liquidity,” he wrote on Seeking Alpha.
...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-two-commentators-who-have-been-warning-of-a-market-crash-say-its-now-here-83fe2ee4?rss=1&siteid=rss

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On 10/26/2023 at 10:09 AM, bernorange said:

I'm on Marketwatch every day, solely b/c I find their stock and commodities tickers user friendly. The articles on the site itself are 90% clickbait trash. 

Every single day:

"Why this hedge fund titan predicts a coming Ice Age for stocks"

"He made a fortune during the 2008 crash, why he's now saying to prepare for financial Armageddon"

They even have a daily "Am I the asshole?" type column where people ask shit like "I'm about to inherit $5M from my father. My lazy POS brother doesn't get anything. He thinks I should pay for the funeral costs. I think we should split 50/50. Is that fair?"

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Man it has been a brutal few years. Intend to not log into my TSP much. But damn it hurts 
Rode my TSP out during the 08-11 crash and it sucked but the rebound stock sex was damn good. Pulled mine out in 21,' when I retired; when there's blood in the street buy more, even if it's your blood. It will pay off in the end.
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6 hours ago, Storm the Field said:

They even have a daily "Am I the asshole?" type column where people ask shit like "I'm about to inherit $5M from my father. My lazy POS brother doesn't get anything. He thinks I should pay for the funeral costs. I think we should split 50/50. Is that fair?"

The amount of rage and laughter I get reading those have me hooked.

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So I see all the investing sites have articles taken off from Druckenmiller's comment about Yellen not borrowing more when interrest rates were low; but I thought the debt celiling limited the amount of Treasuries that the US could issue. Am I missing something - the Fed can kinda do as they think is best, but Treasury is limited by Congress.
I'm not saying we (the US Gov't) shouldn't have loaded up on selling Treasuries when they were near zero, but wouldn't Congress have to approve this plan. 

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He means instead of issuing 1-2 year treasuries in 2020-2021 to fund the deficit they should have been 10-30 year treasuries. Those 1-2yr treasuries that paid .2% interest are being redeemed and replaced with bonds that pay 5% greatly increasing our interest payments. I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

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43 minutes ago, Viking said:

... I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

I posted this in the Inflation thread ... it addresses that point directly (from 2020):

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/498902-now-is-the-time-for-treasury-to-issue-ultra-long-bonds/

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6 hours ago, Viking said:

He means instead of issuing 1-2 year treasuries in 2020-2021 to fund the deficit they should have been 10-30 year treasuries. Those 1-2yr treasuries that paid .2% interest are being redeemed and replaced with bonds that pay 5% greatly increasing our interest payments. I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

This was discussed under Mnuchin as well but the concern has always been is there enough demand for those long-dated bonds. If the demand was there, they definitely should have loaded up on the long end of the curve.

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5 hours ago, hornmpa96 said:

This was discussed under Mnuchin as well but the concern has always been is there enough demand for those long-dated bonds. If the demand was there, they definitely should have loaded up on the long end of the curve.

Anyone holding those would be sitting on absurd unrealized losses. Any bank holding much of those would have been run on. The only entity that could have done that would have been the fed and I’m sure that bullshit will happen soon enough

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14 hours ago, Viking said:

He means instead of issuing 1-2 year treasuries in 2020-2021 to fund the deficit they should have been 10-30 year treasuries. Those 1-2yr treasuries that paid .2% interest are being redeemed and replaced with bonds that pay 5% greatly increasing our interest payments. I had the same thought at the time and wondered if there would have been a market for a 50 or 100 year bond.

These investors got finessed

https://www.oebfa.at/en/presse/presseuebersicht/2020/anleihe-neubegebung-100.html

https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-AT100Y/

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6 hours ago, Wally Fairway said:

Run Warren Run

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/04/berkshire-hathaway-brk-earnings-q3-2023.html

Only have $157B in cash, operating earnings up 40%, but lost $20+B on investments

I have no idea if that is good or not, and if that pushes BRK.A/B up or down

$150B cash earning 5% for a quarter nets a cool $1.88B … this mother fucker ready to buy errbody when these interest rates finally bring a financial crisis induced recession 

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27 minutes ago, B00M said:

$150B cash earning 5% for a quarter nets a cool $1.88B … this mother fucker ready to buy errbody when these interest rates finally bring a financial crisis induced recession 

I hope so, I started buying years ago and don't plan on stopping. I'll buy the dip when he and) or Uncle Charlie die.

My only regret is not starting decades ago (then again Schwab's algo rates it a C)

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Dear Mr Powell,

On behalf of myself, and everyone, and the entire market. Can you please STFU about what the FED may or may not do in the future.
If you are not up on your colloquialism and abbreviations, STFU means to shut your fucking whore mouth when you are talking about how you feel.

Regards
Wally Fairway & his diminishing investment accounts

PS maybe a gif will help you understand
Stfu Leodecap GIF - Stfu Leodecap GIFs | Say more with Tenor

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49 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

CPI came in softer than expected. 0.0% MOM, 3.2% YOY. 

10-year yield down to 4.46%

All 3 major stock indices are up big, nearing 2-month highs.

DJIA +435, approaching 35K again.

S&P +70, just shy of 4500

Nasdaq +280, back over 14K

Wait I don't understand, are not these the numbers that have pushed the Fed to increase rates and therefore over the last 18 months these results have cause the market to react by selling? I guess market movers must now think the Fed will hit the pause button (which would be nice)

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On 11/3/2023 at 9:52 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Up 6% in a week. Should be up by about 50% come the end of the year then.

 

On 11/3/2023 at 10:13 AM, Incredulity said:

Figure It Out Love GIF by NETFLIX

 

On 11/3/2023 at 10:20 AM, FirstTimeCaller said:

Can't argue with math.

On track so far.

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On 11/17/2023 at 10:16 AM, CooterBrown said:

To be fair, he only lost 40% on that bet.

 

Thats speculation. He reports positions at the end of each quarter, but not specifically when he bought or sold during those quarters. If you don't know when he entered or exited his positions, or what the associated options premiums were when he made those trades, how can you estimate profit/loss?  My guess is he lost some money but not 40%. And he could have made money. 

 

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...
One particularly frustrating aspect of 2023 for investors has been waiting for a recession that never came, as many Wall Street banks also bet on that happening. BCA Research, who provides our call of the day also expected a pullback, and say that is now inevitable for 2024, possibly crushing stocks by 27% from current levels.

“We do not expect any further rate hikes in the U.S. over the coming year unless inflation significantly picks up. However, investors are pricing in too much easing before a recession arrives, and too little once it does,” BCA strategists warned in their outlook that published on Monday.

And stocks are “likely to decline significantly in response to a recession,” leaving the S&P 500 trading between 3,300 and 3,700 next year, they say. ...

More:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/why-the-s-p-500-may-sink-as-low-as-3100-next-year-warn-these-bearish-strategists/ar-AA1kEUbz

Direct link to BCA Research report:

https://www.bcaresearch.com/reports/view_report/39234/bca

 

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Flip side:

Quote

Deutsche Bank appears to be sitting at the top of Wall Street’s 2024 forecasts for the S&P 500, with a call for the index to reach 5,100 that its strategists say may turn out to be conservative.
...
RBC and Bank of America each have 5,000 targets, while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are below that level; not every bank has so far published its target.
...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/deutsche-bank-makes-the-highest-s-p-500-forecast-on-wall-street-and-says-that-may-be-too-conservative/ar-AA1kBmr4

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3 hours ago, bernorange said:

 

54 minutes ago, bernorange said:

Thanks - before this I was very indecisive, now I am just undecided about where the market is headed.
Same-as-it-ever-was GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

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