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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


UTPhil2006

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I wish we had a “pinned tweet” type feature that could include Wulaw & Phil’s layman terms breakdown of how many bps = X amt of rate increases (or improvements) on a 15 or 30 yr conventional with the standard down payments for a primary home (I guess that’s 10%?).

I know it’s been explained/posted several times, I wish it was more easily findable and I didn’t have to keep asking.

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9 minutes ago, Muny_Tex said:

I wish we had a “pinned tweet” type feature that could include Wulaw & Phil’s layman terms breakdown of how many bps = X amt of rate increases (or improvements) on a 15 or 30 yr conventional with the standard down payments for a primary home (I guess that’s 10%?).

I know it’s been explained/posted several times, I wish it was more easily findable and I didn’t have to keep asking.

50 bips in the MBS world typically means 1/8 of a point in rate to the borrower. So, today we are between 3/8 and 1/2 a point worse in interest rate. Combined with 68 points lost Friday and we are 5/8 or so worse than Thursday evening. More or less. 

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Copied this from one of my first few posts and added a few things in bold.  As far as the 10 year Treasury (the one I use, wulaw uses bps) there is no tried and true formula to how much it goes up.  Since we are a broker we can work with several lenders, some price it in differently, some know they can add more and price higher, and some just wait for more niche loans.  For a bloodbath like today (+0.21 and counting) at least .125 up in rate, and probably .25 up on others.  Some of this affects the lender on the back end as well (for instance a 5.25 may pay x or cost x, but you can still get that 5.25 its just going to cost more) so it may not jump up on rate necessarily but the back end has significantly changed.  Pretty similar on 10 and 15.  Really it's jumbo loans now with the less reactionary knee jerks to days like these.

Types of Loans:

  • FHA
  • Conventional
  • VA
  • USDA
  • Jumbo
  • Investment
  • Second Home
  • Reverse Mortgage
  • Commercial

Niche Programs:

  • Elite Program – 740+ credit, LTV and loan amounts vary by lender, usually 200k+,  generally cuts .125 to .25 off
  • Construction – 1 and 2x close available
  • Pay Advantage – Up to 97% LTV w/ no MI, Bigger Loan amt w/ Smaller Payments
  • FHA 203(k) Rehab - A type of federally insured mortgage product for individuals who want to rehabilitate or repair a damaged home that will become their primary residence. In addition to the funds to cover the purchase price of the house, the FHA 203(k) loan provides the money needed for repairs and related expenses as part of the loan.
  • Fannie Mae Homepath, Freddie Mac Homepossible - HomePath financing is available to anyone purchasing a Fannie Mae-owned property. Benefit from a low down payment, no MI, 
  • Investment loans - can do 20% down, but 25% is where you don't get as bad of a rate hit, generally about .375-.5% higher on rate
  • Second home loans - similar to the above (used to be almost similar to primary)

Terms/Type:

  • 10, 15, 20, 30 Fixed
  • 3, 5, 7, 10 ARM - more options available, new niche ARMs

Down Payments

  • Conventional – starts at 3-5%, 20% avoids PMI (Mortgage Insurance) (Primary you can do as low as 3%, investment and secondary 20% min)
  • FHA – 3.5%
  • USDA – 0%
  • VA – 0%
  • There are also Down Payment Assistance Programs
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Thanks for the quick replies…that truly is astonishingly bad.

And yeah, I get it now how people who got offers accepted literally this past wknd may suddenly be screwed on their prequal budget or DTI if they didn’t lock at freaking 8:31am today.

What a nightmare, sorry to all affected…and I guess worst part is there’s no relief in sight (at least until time comes to buy votes).

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I dont really have a great understanding of the interdependencies between the fed fund rate vs 10 year treasury vs various mortgage products. In my efforts to learn more about it, I stumbled across the following article, which I found useful. Probably common knowledge to many on this thread. 

https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2017/october/increases-fed-funds-rate-impact-other-interest-rates

which led me to the Fred webpage where I could update past 2017. Good for a visual comparison of the various rates historically:

image.thumb.png.b77e87db520621a67a705aee8e9aafb6.png

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15 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

as to the market cooling, I saw 3 open house signs yesterday.   That wasn't happening a month ago.  Shit was selling as soon as it hit the MLS.

It's game over for real estate.  That bubble is going to pop along with the all-everything bubble.

People won't be able to qualify for the astronomical housing prices with the increased borrowing rates.

If you are a prospective seller you better hope you can sell ASAP.  If you are a prospective buyer hold your horses and wait for the correction to go down.

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2 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

I’ve sold and funded primary at the absolute peak.
Waiting for our build to be done in November time frame. If this bubble pops in the interim, how does that impact the rates?

The rate hikes are a direct result from the stagflation brought on from quantitative easing 4 (which exceeded QE1-3 in total).

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/13/fed-reportedly-may-hike-rates-by-three-quarters-of-a-point-this-week.html

They went up 50 basis points last month talking about possibly 75 this month. Every time they do that mortgage rates will spike along side it.  It's hard to predict how many rate increase cycles they will go through before the stock market gets fucked and they panic into QE5.

I would check with your lender since November is within 180 days and see if they will let you lock into today's rates before the next rate hike gets announced.

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27 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

It's game over for real estate.  That bubble is going to pop along with the all-everything bubble.

People won't be able to qualify for the astronomical housing prices with the increased borrowing rates.

If you are a prospective seller you better hope you can sell ASAP.  If you are a prospective buyer hold your horses and wait for the correction to go down.

 A 33% increase in two years for all properties across the US seems obscene. Now with mortgage rates sure to spike, I agree that a lot of people simply wont be able to qualify. What is less clear to me is whether or not increased borrowing costs will also slow down the pace of institutional buying at all, or if institutional investors will just keep hoovering up all surplus and end up being like 50%+ of all home sales, as ridiculous as that sounds.

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14 minutes ago, Blotto said:

 A 33% increase in two years for all properties across the US seems obscene. Now with mortgage rates sure to spike, I agree that a lot of people simply wont be able to qualify. What is less clear to me is whether or not increased borrowing costs will also slow down the pace of institutional buying at all, or if institutional investors will just keep hoovering up all surplus and end up being like 50%+ of all home sales, as ridiculous as that sounds.

I really hope not on the latter. I’m a huge proponent of the American Dream being really hard to achieve without home ownership. A nation full of Pottersville’s because institutions own half the supply is just disgusting and knee caps the average Joe. 

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54 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

It's game over for real estate.  That bubble is going to pop along with the all-everything bubble.

People won't be able to qualify for the astronomical housing prices with the increased borrowing rates.

If you are a prospective seller you better hope you can sell ASAP.  If you are a prospective buyer hold your horses and wait for the correction to go down.

Depends on your market. Ours will slow down, but will probably go from 85% cash buyers to 100%. The 50 year olds will buy the houses of the 70 year olds that are downsizing to the homes owned by the 80 year old folks, that are moving into Assisted Living, or in with their 50 year old children.

CHIEF

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13 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Depends on your market. Ours will slow down, but will probably go from 85% cash buyers to 100%. The 50 year olds will buy the houses of the 70 year olds that are downsizing to the homes owned by the 80 year old folks, that are moving into Assisted Living, or in with their 50 year old children.

CHIEF

If you are able to pay cash you will definitely come out ahead if you wait for the rate hikes to spike.

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2 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

If you are able to pay cash you will definitely come out ahead if you wait for the rate hikes to spike.

If the fed actually raises rates 75 in June and 50 Points each the next three times I will gentleman bet you $1.00 that rates at the end of the year will actually be considerably lower than right now. 30 year fixed conventional/conforming. 

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

If the fed actually raises rates 75 in June and 50 Points each the next three times I will gentleman bet you $1.00 that rates at the end of the year will actually be considerably lower than right now. 30 year fixed conventional/conforming. 

Wulaw my expectation is the Fed will raise the rates until something breaks in a big way and then they will panic back into counterfeiting I mean "Quantitative Easing" and drop the rates back down.  That's when hyperinflation sets in and the Katastrophenhausse blows the fiat debt system up.

If I were a betting man I would actually agree with your timeline there not bet against it.

Edited by Pimphand
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20 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Fed will raise the rates until something breaks in a big way and then they will panic back into counterfeiting I mean "Quantitative Easing" and drop the rates back down.  That's when hyperinflation sets in and the Katastrophenhausse blows the fiat debt system up.

image.gif.69c0817f7f7f9bfc9c38f5266f8bb0b3.gif

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3 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

image.gif.69c0817f7f7f9bfc9c38f5266f8bb0b3.gif

Haha well the only thing backing the fiat federal reserve notes is our confidence in it.  Don't look now but that confidence is waning rapidly.  Get some Au and Ag from bullion dealers to help hedge against the loss of confidence in FRNs.  People will still let you exchange fiat BS for silver, gold, platinum, and palladium it's pretty wild.

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I really hope not on the latter. I’m a huge proponent of the American Dream being really hard to achieve without home ownership. A nation full of Pottersville’s because institutions own half the supply is just disgusting and knee caps the average Joe. 

Yeah, in regards to bubbles, the only vulnerability I see is this institutional issue. If congress acts or something spooks the institutions into selling, then I could see the bubble burst. Otherwise, supply and demand holds imho.

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1 hour ago, KYHorn said:

Yeah, in regards to bubbles, the only vulnerability I see is this institutional issue. If congress acts or something spooks the institutions into selling, then I could see the bubble burst. Otherwise, supply and demand holds imho.

Fucking wall street...those cocksuckers could decide to dump everything, take a multi-billion dollar hit, and the fucking CEO's will all get big bonuses anyway.  They don't give a fuck. 

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just popping in to say...we have closing docs in hand and expect to get this baby sold within a day or two...

...apparently JUST.in.time. 😳

i don't want to jinx it so i'll hold off on celebrating and singing anybody's praises 😋 until everything is signed..

also... what we're seeing, Denver market is also cooling somewhat. a month ago, by the time we checked email and clicked to see a listing, at least half the time it was already 'pending'.

today we got two 'price reduced' listings and two 'back on market'. things def looking a bit rough all over...but not gonna lie, timing looks like it's going to work out well for us. not sure how i should feel about that!

honestly...it's all pretty surreal right now. i'm kind of in shock. 😐

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I'm not a financial nor real estate expert, but I just don't see this as a "bubble".  This seems nothing like 2008 to me.  The bubble burst in 2008 was caused by shitty sub-prime loans going to people who could not afford them.  Once inflation and unemployment set in, people simply couldn't afford to pay their mortgage.  Today, those sub-prime loans are a thing of the past.  I don't have any stats in front of me and this is just a complete shot in the dark, but I'd wager that close to 50% of current home owners are sitting below 4% due to a recent purchase or refi.  If rates keep going up, sure real estate prices will come down, but those buyers will be staring a 6/7/8% rate square in the face so it'll all come out in the wash.  The only ones who benefit are the cash buyers.  Either way, I just don't see this as any sort of "bubble" that's going to burst.  It's going to be a steady kick in the nuts that gets less intense as time goes on.

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7 hours ago, Assman said:

I'm not a financial nor real estate expert, but I just don't see this as a "bubble".  This seems nothing like 2008 to me.  The bubble burst in 2008 was caused by shitty sub-prime loans going to people who could not afford them.  Once inflation and unemployment set in, people simply couldn't afford to pay their mortgage.  Today, those sub-prime loans are a thing of the past.  I don't have any stats in front of me and this is just a complete shot in the dark, but I'd wager that close to 50% of current home owners are sitting below 4% due to a recent purchase or refi.  If rates keep going up, sure real estate prices will come down, but those buyers will be staring a 6/7/8% rate square in the face so it'll all come out in the wash.  The only ones who benefit are the cash buyers.  Either way, I just don't see this as any sort of "bubble" that's going to burst.  It's going to be a steady kick in the nuts that gets less intense as time goes on.

I'm hoping so, but I ran a mortgage amortization on a $350k home last night, and the difference, in payments between a 3.5% loan, and 7% was right at $1k/month. It went from around $1350ish to over $2300, before taxes, PMI, and other escrowed items. I'm not sure we are going to see home prices drop 50%, but who knows.

CHIEF

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18 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

I'm hoping so, but I ran a mortgage amortization on a $350k home last night, and the difference, in payments between a 3.5% loan, and 7% was right at $1k/month. It went from around $1350ish to over $2300, before taxes, PMI, and other escrowed items. I'm not sure we are going to see home prices drop 50%, but who knows.

CHIEF

On a 350k loan every 1 point of interest is about $200 a month. That’s not nothing of course, but it also shouldn’t drive most people away from qualifying. 
let’s just agree that you probably shouldn’t buy a $400k house (which is what a 350k loan looks like) if you don’t make more or less 100k- does that work for most people (every example will be different of course- we are painting with broad strokes. 

8,333 in income. 

Debts

500- car

500- student loans 

Escrow type stuff- 900 a month

$1900 plus P&I. 
p&I

3%- 1475

4%-1670

5%-1878

6%-2098

7%-2328

That buyer will qualify for an fha at every level on this chart and a conventional up until 6.75% 

Thats not an unusual profile for a buyer.  That guy can (and should) clean up his debts a little  that guy most likely will get a raise and make more money  that guy will likely have the opportunity to

refinance.  That guy will qualify.  It will suck, and it will mean that he might be “house poor” for a while, especially compared to if he’d have bought in 2021 instead, but he will also likely have an opportunity to refinance later and save some money and he will also likely have the opportunity to sell the house one day and make a nice profit, or pay it off in his older years and lock in ability to retire  

 

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1 hour ago, CHIEF said:

I'm hoping so, but I ran a mortgage amortization on a $350k home last night, and the difference, in payments between a 3.5% loan, and 7% was right at $1k/month. It went from around $1350ish to over $2300, before taxes, PMI, and other escrowed items. I'm not sure we are going to see home prices drop 50%, but who knows.

CHIEF

I think we will see "younger" people (and others) become more fiscally responsible with their home purchases.  A lot were pushing the DTI limits, adding pools when they shouldn't, etc.. I think now it will be "lets have a strict budget and stick to it".... now that will likely mean probably taking 50-75k off where they thought they were going to land 6 months ago but for viable buyers it just moved the number down, not out.

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The is a very complicated subject with an infinite amount of variables. No one knows what will happen, and anyone saying they do is selling you something (including me). That being said, I will throw in my 2 cents. The housing market is not a bubble in the sub-prime sense because controls were put into place to curb sub-prime lending. There is currently a supply issue. There are too many buyers and not enough homes for various reasons already discussed ad nauseum on this thread. Is the market overinflated due to these reasons? Yes. Raising interest rates will curb the inflation. They will keep going up until inflation is under control.

Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum, so it's hard to say X is happening or not happening. Some posters have already provided anecdotal evidence the market is cooling a little. I'm not going to even address the concerns over the fiat system collapsing because that conversation is not supported by evidence and to be honest, needs to happen in another forum. As to the effect of raising interest, yes, it will kneecap the housing market because the whole point is to reduce demand of the housing market. Raising rates will mean less people will be able to afford houses, thus reducing demand for them, which leads to housing prices reducing. Will this market of overinflated house prices "burst" or "decline steadily"?  I lean towards the latter, mainly because I'm in the industry so I see signs of it already cooling and have been since rates started going up in February. But I fear the general public will see clickbait articles in November about the housing decline "BUBBLE BURST AGAIN" and the loudest always wins, so all evidence of a steady decline from the past year will be ignored. 

tl/dr

Yes, increased interest rates means buyers can afford less house across the board. It sucks. 

 

 

 

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31 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

The is a very complicated subject with an infinite amount of variables. No one knows what will happen, and anyone saying they do is selling you something (including me). That being said, I will throw in my 2 cents. The housing market is not a bubble in the sub-prime sense because controls were put into place to curb sub-prime lending. There is currently a supply issue. There are too many buyers and not enough homes for various reasons already discussed ad nauseum on this thread. Is the market overinflated due to these reasons? Yes. Raising interest rates will curb the inflation. They will keep going up until inflation is under control.

Of course, none of this happens in a vacuum, so it's hard to say X is happening or not happening. Some posters have already provided anecdotal evidence the market is cooling a little. I'm not going to even address the concerns over the fiat system collapsing because that conversation is not supported by evidence and to be honest, needs to happen in another forum. As to the effect of raising interest, yes, it will kneecap the housing market because the whole point is to reduce demand of the housing market. Raising rates will mean less people will be able to afford houses, thus reducing demand for them, which leads to housing prices reducing. Will this market of overinflated house prices "burst" or "decline steadily"?  I lean towards the latter, mainly because I'm in the industry so I see signs of it already cooling and have been since rates started going up in February. But I fear the general public will see clickbait articles in November about the housing decline "BUBBLE BURST AGAIN" and the loudest always wins, so all evidence of a steady decline from the past year will be ignored. 

tl/dr

Yes, increased interest rates means buyers can afford less house across the board. It sucks. 

 

 

 

Most accurate thing I've seen is housing prices will likely rise steadily which isn't a bad thing.  But going from a 2.5% rate to potentially 7?  Yuck.

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11 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Most accurate thing I've seen is housing prices will likely rise steadily which isn't a bad thing.  But going from a 2.5% rate to potentially 7?  Yuck.

On a $350k home at 2.5%, monthly payment is $1382.92, total interest paid, $147,852.33. The same home at 7%, monthly payment is $2328.56, total interest paid, $488,281.14. That is payment only, 30 year fixed with no additional payments. So you basically pay a little under 2.5X the original price of the house.

CHIEF

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2 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

On a $350k home at 2.5%, monthly payment is $1382.92, total interest paid, $147,852.33. The same home at 7%, monthly payment is $2328.56, total interest paid, $488,281.14. That is payment only, 30 year fixed with no additional payments. So you basically pay a little under 2.5X the original price of the house.

CHIEF

That’s just not how it works. Rates won’t stay at 7 indefinitely (argue they won’t get there) and refinance opportunities will mean at a later date people will get a lower rate. Also, it’s like 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000 the people that make 360 minimum payments and pay off their house. 
the average American is in their house for 7 years and in their mortgage for 4.5. 
it’s not as dire as you are making it out to be. It won’t be 2.5x for anyone unless they are super weird and hard headed. 

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It was evident market cooled on my investment listing.  It went on market towards the end of May and I ended up just leasing it again end of last week after getting no offers in 2.5 weeks.  And there was very little inventory in a pretty highly sought after neighborhood.  It was priced on high end of market for comps early this year but cheaper than comps that had closed right before I listed.   My anecdotal experience is market really cooled as of early May.  But I got a good lease price with what appear to be good tenants on paper so fine with that outcome.  I didn't need to sell.

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9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That’s just not how it works. Rates won’t stay at 7 indefinitely (argue they won’t get there) and refinance opportunities will mean at a later date people will get a lower rate. Also, it’s like 1 in 500 or 1 in 1000 the people that make 360 minimum payments and pay off their house. 
the average American is in their house for 7 years and in their mortgage for 4.5. 
it’s not as dire as you are making it out to be. It won’t be 2.5x for anyone unless they are super weird and hard headed. 

True. I was just using that analogy to show a worst case scenario. But that was exactly what my in-laws did. I know quite a few rural people that bought property around 2000, with interest rates above 6%, that have never moved. They were comfortable with their payment then, and can't be bothered by going through the trouble of refinancing. These folk's daily browsing of the internet is probably about 30 minutes, and refinancing is the last thing on their mind.

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1 minute ago, CHIEF said:

True. I was just using that analogy to show a worst case scenario. But that was exactly what my in-laws did. I know quite a few rural people that bought property around 2000, with interest rates above 6%, that have never moved. They were comfortable with their payment then, and can't be bothered by going through the trouble of refinancing. These folk's daily browsing of the internet is probably about 30 minutes, and refinancing is the last thing on their mind.

That’s all well and good and that’s also completely on them if they can’t be bothered to pretty painlessly save $6000 a year. I’m not crying any tears for them. 

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2 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

True. I was just using that analogy to show a worst case scenario. But that was exactly what my in-laws did. I know quite a few rural people that bought property around 2000, with interest rates above 6%, that have never moved. They were comfortable with their payment then, and can't be bothered by going through the trouble of refinancing. These folk's daily browsing of the internet is probably about 30 minutes, and refinancing is the last thing on their mind.

Yeah, people are idiots.  I've worked with first time buyers that act like it's overwhelming to get pre-qualified.  Bank statements, check stubs, tax returns.  All that shit can be put together in a half hour. 

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When did zero cost refinancing begin? It seems that is where the disconnect with people in their 60's and 70's lies, or at least the ones in rural areas. Quite a few are land rich, but money poor. They never really looked into refinancing, that seems like an untapped market. A lot of them have a "note" at the land bank, or with Farmer's Credit. They never really looked into mortgage companies.

CHIEF

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Just now, Neonmoon said:

The time to buy a house is always today. If rates increase tomorrow, you can afford less house than today. If rates decrease tomorrow, you can refinance into a lower rate. 

 

 

I tell everyone who asks the best day to buy a house is yesterday. The next best is today. 
for exactly the reasons you said. 

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Just now, CHIEF said:

When did zero cost refinancing begin? It seems that is where the disconnect with people in their 60's and 70's lies, or at least the ones in rural areas. Quite a few are land rich, but money poor. They never really looked into refinancing, that seems like an untapped market. A lot of them have a "note" at the land bank, or with Farmer's Credit. They never really looked into mortgage companies.

CHIEF

It’s always existed. You pay a higher interest rate then you could other wise get (like reverse of buying points) or, get the lowest rate and roll it in. If you do it that way you should be able to pay off your cost of refinance through savings in 3 years or your shouldn’t do the deal. 
 

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2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Also, I'm not a reverse specialist, but we have one in our office. That is one of the best programs out there. Once I reach 62, I am reversing the shit of my house. 

It’s a lot of Closing costs to do that. You then pay nothing (and maybe get some cash). If you don’t mind spending your kids inheritance (I don’t think most people should care if they do) it’s a wonderful product, provided you die/go to the home in that house. 

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15 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

When did zero cost refinancing begin? It seems that is where the disconnect with people in their 60's and 70's lies, or at least the ones in rural areas. Quite a few are land rich, but money poor. They never really looked into refinancing, that seems like an untapped market. A lot of them have a "note" at the land bank, or with Farmer's Credit. They never really looked into mortgage companies.

CHIEF

Always been around.  Frankly not sure why everyone doesn't just roll in the costs, especially when you're skipping 1-2 payments and with your escrow refund (if you do that) if you apply both of those back to principal the amount added to principal is fairly minimal.   I always explain you can use the skipped payments and escrow refund check for whatever you want but the most prudent thing to do is apply back to principal.  Especially with appraisal waivers, docusign, and most income documents being online nowadays a refinance is as painless as every and can be done in 14 days.

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