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Ukraine War


BehoId, The Underminer!

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6 minutes ago, Nivek said:

It Lindsey Graham, he is trying to play politics by thanking Trump for the aid package with the hope that he will take credit and continue on the path if he is elected again.    Don't read too much more into it than that.  

I think that's generous on your part. I don't see a subtle nudge from a pitiful minion shaking Trump's fealty to Putin. I think Lindsay wants to make sure he has a spot if the fascists win out. Trying to stay of the proscription lists.

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2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Or any part of their military. Was the NVA (North Vietnamese Army) the last disciplined and determined force we met in the field? That was 50 years ago.

China is well-equipped and trained as far as I know. There would be nothing easy or inevitable about fighting them. We get into to trouble thinking things will be easy and our enemies are not as brave as we are. 

Taiwan is similar in training and determination. It would be a nasty, bloody fight. If it expands to a US-China conflict...fuck, I don't know.

We vastly overstate the readiness and capabilities of the Chinese military or any foe really.  I heard about how battle hardened the Iraqi's were when I was in High School from my history teacher.   His comments later were about how he didn't know about the new equipment the military had but really he didn't understand the reliance upon conscripts by the Iraqi's vs. our volunteer military who were professionals and better equipped.

Don't fall for the propaganda like Ted Cruz did when comparing a fake russian military video with ours where we celebrated the military as a diverse career building organization.   China engaged in skirmishes with India where they were clubbing each other.   India isn't exactly our ally, but they are definitely not China's.  

 

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9 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I think that's generous on your part. I don't see a subtle nudge from a pitiful minion shaking Trump's fealty to Putin. I think Lindsay wants to make sure he has a spot if the fascists win out. Trying to stay of the proscription lists.

It might be.  But I think it is more reasonable.   He is a career politician and this is a known strategy.  Give credit for something to someone, let them bask in the glory of something they didn't do in order to try to get them to continue on that path.   Only he is not dealing with a normal person, he is dealing with conman who has the attention span of a syphilitic squirrel.   

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6 minutes ago, Nivek said:

We vastly overstate the readiness and capabilities of the Chinese military or any foe really.  I heard about how battle hardened the Iraqi's were when I was in High School from my history teacher.   His comments later were about how he didn't know about the new equipment the military had but really he didn't understand the reliance upon conscripts by the Iraqi's vs. our volunteer military who were professionals and better equipped.

Don't fall for the propaganda like Ted Cruz did when comparing a fake russian military video with ours where we celebrated the military as a diverse career building organization.   China engaged in skirmishes with India where they were clubbing each other.   India isn't exactly our ally, but they are definitely not China's.  

 

Thanks for the response. 

I was swayed by the extensive reporting of how formidable the Iraqi army would likely be. They'd had combat experience and we hadn't been in anything a conventional battle with another nation in decades. I recall persons like me being scorned (you're not doing that) for not thinking the US would easily win the invasion. It's was like I was a bad fan of my team.

My response was always, "What? Did you think I had my own intelligence service working in Iraq?" I just knew what I read in several news outlets. Amusingly, one of the things to worry about was to be Iraq's airforce. They flew to Iran to hide. A bad sign for Iraquis.

I don't think I'm swayed by Ted Cruz (how dare you!). China is a big country that develops some of is own war technology. There are a lot of them. If we get involved, I'm concerned about the survival of our surface fleet. I'm concerned about the number aircraft China has in the area. I'm concerned about their esprit d' corps.

In their yard, it would be extremely difficult, in my opinion. And look how right I was about Iraq!

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11 minutes ago, Nivek said:

We vastly overstate the readiness and capabilities of the Chinese military or any foe really.  I heard about how battle hardened the Iraqi's were when I was in High School from my history teacher.   His comments later were about how he didn't know about the new equipment the military had but really he didn't understand the reliance upon conscripts by the Iraqi's vs. our volunteer military who were professionals and better equipped.

Don't fall for the propaganda like Ted Cruz did when comparing a fake russian military video with ours where we celebrated the military as a diverse career building organization.   China engaged in skirmishes with India where they were clubbing each other.   India isn't exactly our ally, but they are definitely not China's.  

 

I ease wrong and I’m gonna retract my comments some.  China does have stealth fighters.  Yeah Pete Mitchell shot 3 of them down, but that was with and F14.  And we don’t have F14’s anymore.

Joking aside, we have a decided advantage in tech, but not necessarily a numeric advantage in tech.  We can shoot down Chinese cruise missiles until we run out of Patriots and then what?

China’s biggest advantage is the same as Russia’s: brutality.  Especially brutality towards their own people.  Just send wave after wave after wave of all those extra <40 yo men they have.  There are lots of reasons they could swamp Taiwan with that.

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6 minutes ago, Parliament said:

China’s biggest advantage is the same as Russia’s: brutality.  Especially brutality towards their own people.  Just send wave after wave after wave of all those extra <40 yo men they have.  There are lots of reasons they could swamp Taiwan with that.

Russia has the advantage of just crossing a land border. China would have to get them to Taiwan first over 100 miles of open water, and that’s not a given that they can do it, given that it’s a 3-4 hour trip to Taiwan for the transports, then the unloading/landing offshore and under fire, and then 3-4 hours back. We all know large-scale amphibious operations under fire are extremely difficult, especially for a country like China that has never done it.  Their navy would be completely tied down defending the convoy. Draw a line from China to Taiwan - that’s where most of their navy will be. They don’t have the luxury of sailing around the Pacific trying to fuck with the US and allies. They have to defend those troop transports because if they don’t, they can’t invade.

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There is an incredibly marked shift in the near coastal currents close to China between summer and winter with regard to Taiwan transport passage.  It’s easy to track and been a known quantity for centuries.  Depending on when they start mobilizing, they’ll have one choice how/which direction  to push off.  Never mind satellite imagery.  You try to go against the current with that big a fleet for a coastal assault on any of the three sides not called “East”, you’re just churning water waiting to be hit by defense artillery/aerial bombardment.  You can go easier to the NW of Taiwan in summer.  But then, there just so happens to be a friendly South Korea/Japan/USN/Australian war game taking place.  Oops

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2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

Thanks for the response. 

I was swayed by the extensive reporting of how formidable the Iraqi army would likely be. They'd had combat experience and we hadn't been in anything a conventional battle with another nation in decades. I recall persons like me being scorned (you're not doing that) for not thinking the US would easily win the invasion. It's was like I was a bad fan of my team.

My response was always, "What? Did you think I had my own intelligence service working in Iraq?" I just knew what I read in several news outlets. Amusingly, one of the things to worry about was to be Iraq's airforce. They flew to Iran to hide. A bad sign for Iraquis.

I don't think I'm swayed by Ted Cruz (how dare you!). China is a big country that develops some of is own war technology. There are a lot of them. If we get involved, I'm concerned about the survival of our surface fleet. I'm concerned about the number aircraft China has in the area. I'm concerned about their esprit d' corps.

In their yard, it would be extremely difficult, in my opinion. And look how right I was about Iraq!

Ha!  Sorry, I wasn't implying you directly with the Ted Cruz comment but I do think that perception exists within some segments of our community and our government.   We love to build up our adversaries, which I supposed helps us not underestimate them, but we often go too far.  China has its own cultural issues with their little emperors and with the emphasis on single male heirs, losing men in a useless conflict is going to have huge social implications and force China into another crisis given their limited welfare program (according to Wiki).  

While they do indeed study and copy equipment from others, their initial use will likely be fairly underwhelming as they are not experienced in putting it into action.   Just like how Ukraine ran out the first gen Bradleys out into minefields and while they were successful in keeping the crews alive, they had to adapt to the tactics the equipment was designed for.   China supposedly has issues with carrier launches/landings and while they will eventually figure it out, those things should not be taken for granted.  Sure they copied our hovercraft, but can they actually protect it and deploy it?  How can they defend assets around the world with such a limited range on their Navy?  Sure they can eventually overwhelm Taiwan, but the cost to China is going to be high and their ability to continue to project power out towards Japan and India will be compromised.   Plus. there is another major issue at stake.  China's economy is heavily tied to the U.S. as a trading partner.   Other nations would gladly jump at the opportunity to make rubber dogshit for us.  It would cause us both pain, but a manufacturing center which loses its customers is going to have a much harder time surviving than a customer who loses its manufacturer but also retains the knowledge to set up shop elsewhere.   

But that is just like my uninformed opinion man.  I could (and probably am) be wrong.  (PS thanks for the fun talk/distraction)  Now back to our regularly scheduled programming.  

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On 4/22/2024 at 10:08 AM, Nivek said:

It might be.  But I think it is more reasonable.   He is a career politician and this is a known strategy.  Give credit for something to someone, let them bask in the glory of something they didn't do in order to try to get them to continue on that path.   Only he is not dealing with a normal person, he is dealing with conman who has the attention span of a syphilitic squirrel.   

He’s a sycophant. Nothing more. 

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

Fucking die already, Mitch. You know damn well it was Trump and that everything ties back to Trump and Russia and you were totally fine with it because you value power and party over the constitution. 

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Just reading the NYT article on what all is in the aid package.

Is there no equivalent coverage from the Russia side? I'd like to read their read of it. We see those clips of the propaganda shows all the time, but nothing else? It seems to me that there would be different types of Russia consumers of news there just as there is here.  Someone has to be demanding more of a realistic conversation of what is going on.  The media control over there just doesn't allow that at all?  Seems like a propaganda loss if anything to be telling your people that you are only going to feed them b.s. all their lives.

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39 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Just reading the NYT article on what all is in the aid package.

Is there no equivalent coverage from the Russia side? I'd like to read their read of it. We see those clips of the propaganda shows all the time, but nothing else? It seems to me that there would be different types of Russia consumers of news there just as there is here.  Someone has to be demanding more of a realistic conversation of what is going on.  The media control over there just doesn't allow that at all?  Seems like a propaganda loss if anything to be telling your people that you are only going to feed them b.s. all their lives.

Your position is that citizens in dictatorships could gain access to non-state sponsored propaganda by asking the state for it?

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On 4/22/2024 at 8:57 AM, RomaVicta said:

I think that's generous on your part. I don't see a subtle nudge from a pitiful minion shaking Trump's fealty to Putin. I think Lindsay wants to make sure he has a spot if the fascists win out. Trying to stay of the proscription lists.

He's fooling himself.  If Trump becomes king he will be first against the wall. /radiohead

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Another US precision-guided weapon falls prey to Russian electronic warfare, US says

https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2024/04/another-us-precision-guided-weapon-falls-prey-russian-electronic-warfare-us-says/396141/

 

Not great, but the intelligence gained about Russia's actual real world capabilities must be priceless to our military. I would imagine our military/CIA spend way more than 60 billion trying to gain this type of knowledge about Russia/China.  

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it's not good, but kinda like a player coming back from injury, there is no substitute for the real thing - getting these weapons into the theater of war is the only way to know if they work. hopefully the knowledge gained is exponentially valuable. i hate that I'm even cheering on the war machine, but fuck Putin

Edited by Longhorn_Fan68
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In the series, Slow Horses on Apple, the setting is a shitty set of offices where fuck-ups from MI6 are assigned boring tasks. The head guy, Lamb, is a legendary spook who is hostile, vulgar, and insulting at every turn. It's a great show.

In an action sequence, one of the fuck-ups, let's call him Agent Boeing, wrestles with and kills an intruder. "I didn't mean to kill him."

Lamb: "Of course not, it you'd meant to kill him, he'd still be alive."

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51 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

In the series, Slow Horses on Apple, the setting is a shitty set of offices where fuck-ups from MI6 are assigned boring tasks. The head guy, Lamb, is a legendary spook who is hostile, vulgar, and insulting at every turn. It's a great show.

In an action sequence, one of the fuck-ups, let's call him Agent Boeing, wrestles with and kills an intruder. "I didn't mean to kill him."

Lamb: "Of course not, it you'd meant to kill him, he'd still be alive."

Love that show, and it's exhibit 1 million in how fantastic Gary Oldman is in everything he does.

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