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Realignment talk not going away


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FSU and Clemson leaving won't kill the ACC. The reason the PAC is dying is that they're losing their 4 biggest brands and Colorado. The ACC will have to backfill with a Sun Belt raid or Memphis/SMU but they'll still be the clear 4th in the new P4. A P4 makes the most sense in the expanded playoff era for potential auto bids and scheduling with the top 2 conferences. 

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1 hour ago, Sbbruin said:

Agreed, but between a full Big 12 share or a reduced B1G share , it's a wash at worst, and they probably make more in the B1G at say a $40m number and are way ahead of any PAC option.  

Joining the B1G at a reduced share now (even if it’s slightly less than the Big 12) will likely payoff when they get full shares in the future. Short of a true power league, I’d bet the vast majority of schools would make that trade today no questions asked no thoughts required.

We have some Okie State and Tech fans here, do you really think if the SEC called them up and offered them a spot in the SEC next year $20 million a year for the remainder of their current TV deal that they’d say no?

So it’s 12ish million less a year for 6 years so you’d lose around $70million in the short term, that you’d more than make up by year 3 of the new TV deal where you’d get full shares.

The Big 12 is only a destination conference for those that have no shot at the SEC/B1G. If they offer to let you join the club at a reduced share now for a full share later, then you should take it and not look back.

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1 hour ago, hook me said:

I think ESPN holding the rights to the ACC & SEC makes it more difficult for FSU to get out right now. ESPN has no reason to bring them over to the SEC when they're paying pennies & have more than enough exposure in the SE, they don't move the needle anywhere close to UT/USC/or ND so the need to try to lock them up long term & the potential marquee matchups they provide don't apply, & there's no amount of inventory to give ESPN in order to work out a reduced buyout & I don't think FSU has the money to pay the 13 years left on the deal. The only ace in the hole is if FSU could convince ND to come to the SEC with them which seems incredibly unlikely but that would be the only thing that may give ESPN reason to consider it.

The new demand is matchups.  FSU vs Florida, Bama, LSU, Georgia, Texas, OU, etc on a regular basis, is worth more to ESPN than FSU vs Clemson. Especially when Clemson would likely follow... And if there is anything to the Big 10 rumors are real, that puts UNC and whoever else with value in the SEC also. Which is where everything is headed anyways. If not now, 13 years from now the ACC. Will get carved up.  If I were in charge of the ACC or the Big 12, I'd really start to consider it being time to shed bloat and merge the best of what's left to maximize their value. It's what's the Networks are practically doing. They are maximizing the bang for their bucks..  it used to be regional matchups between rivals that made money...  Then TV money came in and it was the size of your footprint that had the value, but now, they are after the national eyes.   I'm a huge college football fan, but I don't care about rivalry games between Ole Miss and Miss St for example. Not many outside of their region give a shit either. But more of them would tune in to watch FSU play either of them.  Paying 30 to. 50 million to the Purdues, Vandys, North Westerns. Etc while paying 20 million to the FSUs and Clemson isn't ESPNs ideal of good business.  They would love nothing more than to pay the schools what they are worth period...  There is a gap between P5 and G5s. Most of the G5s that have P5 value have made it up a rung, and as  we are about to see, some P5 bottom feeders are about to lose their free ride and get sent down the ladder... the ACC is next... 

It's simple, the PAC viewership is something like (and has been for decades) 1/4 less than the other conferences (per population).  This is why they are dead in the water today. The teams that have value, become more valuable if you put them playing teams back east. Now those teams stop being shackled to that late window. 

The ACC death came with the introduction of conference networks. They are in the SEC and BIG 10 footprint even if there's no SEC/B10 teams in that state... The value they have is maximized by matching them against schools most of the population in their area follow. Sending many of them  to the G5 pool where their 4 thousand fans can watch them playing more along their level is a win win for everyone...

The BIG 12 is im a good place. People in its footprint watch football..  it's a perfect landing spot for teams that have value, but are redundant the SEC/BIG 10... I'm sure there's teams in the SEC and B10 that the networks wish they could swap out with some Big 12 schools, but they know they can't win them all..  iif they could, they would dump about half the p5 schools completely and create the NFL Jr out of the rest.. 

  

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3 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

anyone got the 247 copy pasta?

 

nvm, found cliff notes on reddit

Important points:

Pac-12 Presidents were presented a $24.5M deal, but the issue was the fact it was nearly all streaming

Although it is not completely finalized yet, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all likely to join the Big 12 together

Announcement as soon as Friday.

Utah has now done a 180 and wants to join the Big 12. However, if it is to fall apart, Utah is the most likely reason why

Bobby Robbins kept an open dialogue with the four corner schools and has laid out the positives of making a move to the Big 12.

UConn has had preliminary dialogue with the ACC

Big 10 could move fast in expanding

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4 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

anyone got the 247 copy pasta?

 

Quote

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Realignment Notebook: Pac-12 on verge of collapse
The Pac-12 is on the verge of collapse. Read on to see why that is and more.
Jason Scheer
JASON SCHEER
26 mins
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(Photo: 247Sports)
 

* We have been able to gather more details on the Pac-12’s recent offer to its conference members. Sources indicate that the number presented was $24.5 million on the high end, but the biggest issue actually was not money-related.

Instead, the conference presented members with a deal that was nearly all streaming. The Pac-12 presidents have been consistent in their approach by saying that linear was important to the future of the conference and while George Kliavkoff tried, he has never been able to get to that sweet spot with linear and enough money to keep the Pac-12 members around.


* Once the meeting was completed with disappointment, all bets were off. Schools such as Arizona, Utah, and Arizona State entered discussions with the Big 12. Arizona was the furthest along of the three going into this part of the process and in the last 24-48 hours, Arizona State and Utah joined the Wildcats. Although it is not completely finalized yet, sources indicate that Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all likely to join the Big 12. One source said that it would have to fall apart for the three schools not to make the move and the ideal plan for the Big 12 is to make the biggest possible impact, which is announcing all three at once. Although it is not set in stone, there could be an announcement as soon as Friday.

* Utah has been the most stubborn of the three schools throughout the process and should things break apart, it would likely be at Utah’s feet. The fans have played a large role in that as Athletic Director Mark Harlan knows how Utah fans view the Pac-12 compared to the Big 12, especially considering the presence of BYU. Harlan was not lying when he pledged his loyalty to the Pac-12. However, the situation has become difficult to survive, and Harlan knows that the future of the athletic department is at stake. Although he was hesitant at first, sources indicate that Utah has done a 180 in the last 24 hours and has become confident in its next step. 

* Arizona President Robert Robbins deserves a ton of credit in this process, as he has been vocal and active in talking to his counterparts. There was clear hesitancy with Arizona State and Utah, but Robbins has been consistent in what he wanted to see from the Pac-12, and his expectations were never matched. Robbins kept an open dialogue with the four corner schools and has laid out the positives of making a move to the Big 12. 

* The Big 10 has made the entire process easier for the Pac-12 schools involved. Sources indicate that there will be an expansion meeting on Wednesday night and a handful of schools will be discussed. Oregon and Washington are the top priorities, and although Stanford and Cal have been mentioned, sources have told us they aren’t necessarily the top choice. Expect the Big 10 to make another strong run at Notre Dame and to move on to ACC schools as well. Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida State have been mentioned as three of the schools that will be discussed. The Big 10 process could move faster than people expected due in large part to the fact that some of these schools have already been vetted by the conference.

* It is unknown what will happen with the ACC should multiple schools leave, but UConn has had preliminary dialogue with the conference. As of now, it is unlikely that UConn will join the Big 12 because the four corner schools look as if they will go together, which was unexpected as recently as a week ago.

Pretty strong stuff

Edited by SimonBolivar
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16 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

FSU and Clemson leaving won't kill the ACC. The reason the PAC is dying is that they're losing their 4 biggest brands and Colorado. The ACC will have to backfill with a Sun Belt raid or Memphis/SMU but they'll still be the clear 4th in the new P4. A P4 makes the most sense in the expanded playoff era for potential auto bids and scheduling with the top 2 conferences. 

I think the death blow is whenever UNC, UVA, and whoever else the B1G wants to take leave as well. Don't think that's coming any time soon unless all the schools that are looking for greener pastures decide to piggyback on FSU's fraud claim to nuke the GoR from orbit. 

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16 minutes ago, Gidnik said:

...

Although it is not completely finalized yet, Arizona, Arizona State, and Utah are all likely to join the Big 12 together

Announcement as soon as Friday.

Utah has now done a 180 and wants to join the Big 12. However, if it is to fall apart, Utah is the most likely reason why

...

 School Ugh GIF

 

Max Hall said it best:

 

 

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2 hours ago, John80 said:

Florida State has always acted this way and the only difference is they are broadcasting their behavior to the rest of the country because in their warped mind, this helps them.

I'm sure Washington and Oregon really wants to move to the B10 but do you see their administrators acting this way? No because it's childish and embarrassing.

 

 

In the end its a 'state' school, meaning aggy.  Nobody is as fucked up as texum aggy but the vast majority of ag schools have something 'off' about them and they tend to be laughed at.  FSU is no different. 

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13 minutes ago, NCMountaineer said:

I think the death blow is whenever UNC, UVA, and whoever else the B1G wants to take leave as well. Don't think that's coming any time soon unless all the schools that are looking for greener pastures decide to piggyback on FSU's fraud claim to nuke the GoR from orbit. 

The big 10 isn't adding those schools if/when Oregon/Washington make the jump. Kansas was speculated because of the basketball side when the Big12 was rocky and nothing ever came of it for the same reasons. 

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4 hours ago, 'stache said:

I don't get this, how does it change anything legally speaking for them to say they don't like the contract and want out? It doesn't make it any easier or harder for them to win that case. The numbers from other conference contracts is public knowledge. I haven't seen them talking about direct conversations with other conferences, but even then, people have a pretty distorted view on "collusion" and "tortious interference" when it comes to business contracts. This country is pure capitalism, if there's more money to be made elsewhere, it's expected the players will move that direction. Doesn't change what the contract says and that they will have to fight like hell to get out of it for a reasonable cost. I actually appreciate this approach to the generic "we are committed to our conference" even when they add "and will move forward in the best interest of our program." Such drivel. Everyone knows FSU is valuable, much more so than the contract they're bound by, of course they're gonna try to get out and make more money. 

According to the Dude, he was told FSU will claim fraud in the inducement to challenge it.  Of course, then they pay to settle.

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Just now, camel at sea said:

Arizona could split with ASU if the alternative is that both get left in the PAC without a place to go.  I guess we're probably going to find out sometime soon whether / how much FOX is going to play ball on Big 12 expansion.  

 

Thing is, both university presidents are making an appearance.  To me, that suggests both are willing to go.  

Realignment 2023 is the preseason drama everyone deserves.  And someone notable is gonna get left at the curb.

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1 hour ago, TKthunder2 said:

Joining the B1G at a reduced share now (even if it’s slightly less than the Big 12) will likely payoff when they get full shares in the future. Short of a true power league, I’d bet the vast majority of schools would make that trade today no questions asked no thoughts required.

We have some Okie State and Tech fans here, do you really think if the SEC called them up and offered them a spot in the SEC next year $20 million a year for the remainder of their current TV deal that they’d say no?

So it’s 12ish million less a year for 6 years so you’d lose around $70million in the short term, that you’d more than make up by year 3 of the new TV deal where you’d get full shares.

The Big 12 is only a destination conference for those that have no shot at the SEC/B1G. If they offer to let you join the club at a reduced share now for a full share later, then you should take it and not look back.

This. I don't see how that's even a question. Not to mention you know damn well the administration at both schools, but especially Washington, would prefer brand association with the B1G and the likes of Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, etc. and membership in the B1G's academic consortium over the B12. Even more so if there is any truth to the Cal/Stanford smoke. 

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1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Thing is, both university presidents are making an appearance.  To me, that suggests both are willing to go.  

Realignment 2023 is the preseason drama everyone deserves.  And someone notable is gonna get left at the curb.

Truly everything I needed for the next 3 weeks. Gawd it's been a million years since college football. 

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9 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Realignment 2023 is the preseason drama everyone deserves.  And someone notable is gonna get left at the curb.

Please be Utah. Please be Utah. Please be Utah. 
 

A year ago I was indifferent to them. But then I got to know them this past year. They are my Johnny Ringo. I really hate them. 

Edited by Uncle Nate
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3 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Please be Utah. Please be Utah. Please be Utah. 
 

A year ago I was I different to them. But then I got to know them this past year. They are my Johnny Ringo. I really hate them. 

 

Utah seems the most likely, as of tonight.  But tune in tomorrow!  It might be Oregon!  Or Stanford!  Or we see FSU take the unprecedented step of challenging a GOR...and finding no suitors!  Hell, an entire conference might cease to exist in the next 48 hours!

It's the drama we didn't ask for, but by God, we deserve.

 

 

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Seems pretty clear now, OU, UW, Cal, Stanford to BIG for reduced shares, AU, ASU, and Utah to the Big XII for full shares. ORST and WSU to the MWC. That conference at least has a real TV deal, I doubt it makes any difference if they absorb the MWC as the PAC at that point. 

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2 hours ago, USC Traveler said:

Great to see you posting in here.  I always enjoyed kicking ideas around with you back on the Shaggy realignment thread.

I recall you and I (amongst others) feeling like the PAC not partnering with ESPN/FOX on PACNet and not taking UT, OU and the gang b/c of LHN meant the PAC was eventually doomed.  And here we are........

 

The FSU stuff is really interesting.  If they move, the other football schools will follow and the ACC will crumble as fast as the PAC is.

I hadn't read your theory above anywhere before.  ESPN is hurting for cash.  They are losing subs while the cost of rights keeps going up.  Their model is upside down now.  If they let the BIG take some of the ACC schools, and the conference crumbles, that's one less media obligation at a time when they need to do a new NBA deal, etc.  It could be viable as a way for ESPN to get into business with the BIG again.

//

What I've read on their 247 board is that they think they have a fraud case against Swofford and the ACC, and that's their way out.

Either way, there  is a massive amount of smoke around FSU.

 

I remember.  You were my insite into the real sentiment within the PAC.  When you told me about the clause USC and UCLA received when the PAC went to  equal revenue distribution made it easy to see this train wreck coming from back then. 

Knowing what to look for and what things would affect it , it was easy to see the cracks forming and growing, and when the DirecTV deal didn't happen. I posted that was the final straw and the PAC just became unstable.  Everyone thought I was crazy, because the PAC was as stable as it gets, I just responded with just sit back and watch... It won't be noticeable at first but you will start to hear things, not in the media, but within the local writers, and that not only is the PAC going to become unstable.  Call me crazy all you want, and it will probably be a year or two before it's becomes noticable, but not only is the PAC in serious danger of collapse, I can name the two schools to watch closely, starting around a year before their current contract expires. But Scott not getting it done with the last real hope of getting a breakthrough for PACNET with the national carriers just put USC and UCLA up to be poached....   

Nobody wanted to listen, but it isn't rocket science.  USC isn't giving up it's 100 plus years of elite status in football with a "well we had a good run" just because the PAC missed the money train. They will do just like we or any other school that has the ability to do so, they will go where the money's at....

I love you guys getting slaughtered all over the place by everyone.  Embrace it and bask in the glory of all those tears. Especially when you can look everyone of the left behinds and tell them they know their school would do the same if it was given the chance...   If the money gap had been a few million USC would still be there, but a 10 20 30 million gap? It's not a complicated choice... 

During our media days, the #2 head of the Big 12 took some comical shots at us...  Since we have money, I guess we are supposed to be happy to continue working for a fraction of our value and be happy, you know, just with being able to  provide food for the B12 children... 

I'm not sure when they forgot that we are the University of Texas, and not the University of the Big 12.  Our leadership in place to do what they believe is in the best interest of the University of Texas and that's what they do... In fact they see to it that we pay out membership fees to the BIG 12 so it can afford to hire competent people who to oversee what's best for the conference as a whole.  Seeing Texas as a cash cow and never bother to ask yourself how big is the money gap going to have to get between the BIG 12 and the 2 big boys before it might become an issue.  The failure of both of our conferences to identify things that will become major issues until it runs them over and an in hindsight is brain numbing. Instead, we hear Texas has money so they won't care that schools in other conferences make 2 or 3 times they do...  Texas has money because it's been good at managing its personal money, and sitting on it's thumb doing nothing about getting left off the money train goes against the reasons why Texas has money...  If the BIG 12s office had bothered to glance at OUs football board, it wouldn't have taken long to see their fanbase has been wanting to leave for years and it was going to be just a matter of time before its administration would have to cave...  None of this is hard to foresee.. maybe the when and where of things can be, but not the issues that will cost you the schools that are of value to richer conferences.  But a huge money gap and exposure gap is a sure ringer every single time.  It isn't USC or UT place to look out for the conference. It's the conference's job to look out for them.  That's the whole reason they are part of the conference to begin with...

Oh, and it was the right call to vote against expansion.  It wasn't just the right call to make, it was the only call USC could make.  Blocking that from happening especially knowing the flack you would face once you announced your departure, shows you have standards you hold yourself to...  It would have been fucked up to allow any poaching of other schools without putting all your cards on the table. No matter how much they cry about it.  It was the correct call to make

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20 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

Thing is, both university presidents are making an appearance.  To me, that suggests both are willing to go.  

Realignment 2023 is the preseason drama everyone deserves.  And someone notable is gonna get left at the curb.

Hopefully Utah.

13 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

Please be Utah. Please be Utah. Please be Utah. 
 

A year ago I was indifferent to them. But then I got to know them this past year. They are my Johnny Ringo. I really hate them. 

They are the worst fans in CFB.

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2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

This. I don't see how that's even a question. Not to mention you know damn well the administration at both schools, but especially Washington, would prefer brand association with the B1G and the likes of Michigan, Northwestern, Wisconsin, etc. and membership in the B1G's academic consortium over the B12. Even more so if there is any truth to the Cal/Stanford smoke. 

It's not a matter of would the school accept. Of course they would if the alternative is big12 - the shame avoidance alone alone is worth an annual loss of 4 or 5 million. 

ESPN and FOX have no reason to offer, though. None. They don't need to "lock them up." There is no other alternative for those two schools, now or 10 years from now. There's no reason to overpay now when you know UO HAS to go to you whenever you beckon. The same holds true from UW/UOs point of view: there's no reason to take a diminished cut to join now, with a partial payout, if you know there is no option other than joining BIG in '32/33 at a full share. 

Msst, Miss, SC, Rutgers, Nwestern, Maryland, Illinois, Texas a&m, Vanderbilt... SEC/BIG will eventually get rid of them all. If you're not a brand, you're not Tier 1. TV speaks, and Vandy and their whistling fuck-sticks are gone...at some point the decision will be made to get rid of the hangers on...everywhere. I suspect in 203? Even in the SEC. Then there are tons of spots for qualified programs.

 

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5 minutes ago, TrashMaster G said:

I'm torn. 

I'd like Utah to be left out because, fuck Utah.

But I'd also like Utah to be included because, fuck BYU.

There seems to be a consensus among surly that Utah sucks and they need pain.  Where does that come from? What did I miss?

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11 minutes ago, Alot said:

There seems to be a consensus among surly that Utah sucks and they need pain.  Where does that come from? What did I miss?

They may have the most undeserved and misplaced arrogance and delusion  of any fan base I’ve encountered. Like Aggy level delusion. 
 

What I have learned is they think their football program is on the level of Alabama and their academics is on par with Cal and Stanford. They are better than any Big12 school in both athletics and academics, and they were God’s gift to the PAC when they joined. 
 

I really hope they don’t join the Big12…I’m afraid they will be a cancer that disrupts the current collegiality and alignment we are enjoying from the remaining member schools. 

Edited by Uncle Nate
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14 minutes ago, Alot said:

There seems to be a consensus among surly that Utah sucks and they need pain.  Where does that come from? What did I miss?

I assume you have met an aggy or two before.  Imagine them, and then double the delusional attitudes and misguided sense of entitlement coming from a school with nothing particularly special going on that was not a P5 until 2011.   They're like a mashup of TCU and aggy.

Aside from their terrible know-nothing fanbase, the school just doesn't bring anything to the table for a major conference.  The Big 12 already has that small market (3M people or so in the state) covered, and the SEC and B1G don't need or want it.  Utah brings nothing to the table.   

Edited by Samson's Wig
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1 hour ago, gatormarc said:

 

RIP PAC

37 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Seems pretty clear now, OU, UW, Cal, Stanford to BIG for reduced shares, AU, ASU, and Utah to the Big XII for full shares. ORST and WSU to the MWC. That conference at least has a real TV deal, I doubt it makes any difference if they absorb the MWC as the PAC at that point. 

I don't think it's that clear on who is going to the BIG

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3 hours ago, Samson's Wig said:

Stupid move by Big 12 if so.  If Oregon and WAshington are off the table, they should sit still with Arizona.   ACC breakup will provide much better options that the net negatives of Utah and ASU.

B1G and SEC will take the brands from the ACC. 

That leaves 8-10 schools to pick from and Big12 can take 2 or 4 additional schools to get to 20.

They'll some combo of Duke, Georgia Tech, Va Tech, Pitt, Syracuse, Miami, NC State, or Louisville.... 

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17 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

They may have the most undeserved and misplaced arrogance and delusion  of any fan base I’ve encountered. Like Aggy level delusion. 
 

What I have learned is they think their football program is on the level of Alabama and their academics is on par with Cal and Stanford. They are better than any Big12 school in both athletics and academics, and they were God’s gift to the PAC when they joined. 
 

I really hope they don’t join the Big12…I’m afraid they will be a cancer that disrupts the current collegiality and alignment we are enjoying from the remaining member schools. 

It's amazing to me that BYU is now more digestible than UTAH.

What a world. 

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22 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

They may have the most undeserved and misplaced arrogance and delusion  of any fan base I’ve encountered. Like Aggy level delusion. 
 

What I have learned is they think their football program is on the level of Alabama and their academics is on par with Cal and Stanford. They are better than any Big12 school in both athletics and academics, and they were God’s gift to the PAC when they joined. 
 

I really hope they don’t join the Big12…I’m afraid they will be a cancer that disrupts the current collegiality and alignment we are enjoying from the remaining member schools. 

It's crazy, back before Urban Meyer came in 2003, their fanbase was small and limited to pockets in SLC and Davis/Weber Counties and the rivalry was friendly and good natured.  Then Urban Meyer came and turned it toxic, they started winning and all of their fans started coming out of the wood works and by fans, I mean those who use the rivalry as an avenue of hate towards LDS and the LDS church.  They were obnoxious before, but became completely insufferable and toxic after and after moving up to the Pac 12, they became delusional and arrogant in every way, they were and are completely toxic.   They lack self awareness because their football heritage goes back all of 20 years and they are obsessed with and hate BYU more then they support and root for their own program.  

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And how do I know?  I served my mission north of SLC of all places and we'd have trucks in Ute logo stickers flipping us off and yelling all sorts of crap at us as we were walking and riding our bikes.  I didn't grow up with the rivalry because I grew up in Northeast Texas so it was my first exposure to their fanbase.  

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34 minutes ago, FartingDreamer said:

And how do I know?  I served my mission north of SLC of all places and we'd have trucks in Ute logo stickers flipping us off and yelling all sorts of crap at us as we were walking and riding our bikes.  I didn't grow up with the rivalry because I grew up in Northeast Texas so it was my first exposure to their fanbase.  

Are most Univ. of Utah folks not also LDS?

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