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Realignment talk not going away


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10 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

No no, the A package is the Mouse, the B package is Fox.  

In the A package they get:

  • The top 4 overall picks
  • 6 of the top 8
  • 8 of the top 12 and
  • 12 of the top 20 picks
  • They also get the basketball and football CCGs

Fox, with the B package, gets to pick in the gaps of the above, and I'm guessing it goes 1 to 1 after 20.    However, Fox gets 26 games for Fox and FS1, which is basically 2 per week.   If you figure ESPN's is similar, but with better content, you should see roughly four games a week on ABC, Fox, FS1 and an ESPN channel.   The rest, that aren't on Thursday or Friday, will likely fall to ESPN+, but so far this year they have had more of the games that would stream land on something like the U.    To get to these kinds of payouts they need at least two T1 a week.

It also is likely to change.    With 12 teams you have 54 conference games a year.   With 16 you have 72.    They didn't pay the four new teams $120m a year for all that content to go on streaming.   My guess is they get an ABC/ESPN/FOX on Saturday, and some of these games fall to ESPN late night or on Friday.

They pick their games before the season starts, right? In your educated guess…what are the top four Big XII games next year? Is it all Colorado?

Taking Colorado out (say they have the top nine games), what would be the next four?

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14 minutes ago, statsman said:

They pick their games before the season starts, right? In your educated guess…what are the top four Big XII games next year? Is it all Colorado?

Taking Colorado out (say they have the top nine games), what would be the next four?

I don't know the schedule, but I'd agree, of the B16 teams next year Colorado comes in with the most buzz, followed by Utah.   One of the Texas teams, likely TCU just due to the past year or two, and then whoever starts to step up to end the season.   Not sure Texas will take many dings this year with everyone else down, but Oklahoma does not look like a world beater.   Whoever makes it to the end will have the leg up for next year.     Definitely not top four, but I'd expect West Virginia and Iowa State to get a lot of Fox love, because they have a higher floor on their audiences on national games than the others, e.g. they do well even when they suck.    

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On 9/27/2023 at 7:59 AM, Frank Drebin said:

If I was a CU fan, I would be in denial also.

With expanded playoffs, you want to be in one of the big 2 conferences.  And for recruiting, you definitely do.

If you're CU? Maybe not. There's a tradeoff somewhere. Be in the P2 and become Nebraska/ Minnesota/ Indiana/ Mississippi State, or be in the Big 12 and win 10+ games and conference titles with regularity. I'm not saying either is better necessarily but it's not as straight forward as some like to pretend. 

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11 minutes ago, LTbear said:

If you're CU? Maybe not. There's a tradeoff somewhere. Be in the P2 and become Nebraska/ Minnesota/ Indiana/ Mississippi State, or be in the Big 12 and win 10+ games and conference titles with regularity. I'm not saying either is better necessarily but it's not as straight forward as some like to pretend. 

Prime Time wants to be in a prime conference.

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2 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Maybe eventually, but a quick move by him would be shocking, especially since all of his kids, even his daughter, play for the Buffs now.   Also, it’s not like he's not getting recruits and he owns the place.   

His two sons likely turn pro in 2025.  That’s probably when he’ll leave if he does

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Found this interesting:

c6a93683de04856fec1d73e3b74c2632.png

If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as "school funding", even though some are just student tickets to all events as a fee and shouldn't count, then do a P/L on it, these are the current P5 teams that pop up (these are in order from most to least and doesn't include privates because I don't feel like looking them all up individually):

  • Turns profit on own (25)- Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan, A&M, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, LSU, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Louisville
  • Less than $5m in loss (e.g. student ticket crowd) (8) - Iowa, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, WVU, Iowa State, Tennessee, Minnesota, South Carolina.
  • $5-$15m in loss (10)- NC State, UNC, Ole Miss, Utah, GTech, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia, Washington State.
  • $15m-$25m in loss (5) - Oregon State, VTech, Washington, Maryland, Arizona State
  • +$25m in loss (4) - Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Rutgers.
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As long as the Big 12 and ACC have guaranteed playoff access, there might not be as much push from coaches to jump into the Big 10 or SEC.  Admins will always do that because they'd rather go winless and make $10M more per year than make the playoffs at $10M less, but players and coaches might be a lot more hesitant to take a job/roster spot with a Big 10 or SEC whipping boy when they're winning games and going to the playoffs in the Big 12 or ACC.

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3 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Found this interesting:

c6a93683de04856fec1d73e3b74c2632.png

If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as "school funding", even though some are just student tickets to all events as a fee and shouldn't count, then do a P/L on it, these are the current P5 teams that pop up (these are in order from most to least and doesn't include privates because I don't feel like looking them all up individually):

  • Turns profit on own (25)- Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan, A&M, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, LSU, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Louisville
  • Less than $5m in loss (e.g. student ticket crowd) (8) - Iowa, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, WVU, Iowa State, Tennessee, Minnesota, South Carolina.
  • $5-$15m in loss (10)- NC State, UNC, Ole Miss, Utah, GTech, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia, Washington State.
  • $15m-$25m in loss (5) - Oregon State, VTech, Washington, Maryland, Arizona State
  • +$25m in loss (4) - Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Rutgers.

Iowa and Iowa State profit on their own.  Have for years.

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5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

As long as the Big 12 and ACC have guaranteed playoff access, there might not be as much push from coaches to jump into the Big 10 or SEC.  Admins will always do that because they'd rather go winless and make $10M more per year than make the playoffs at $10M less, but players and coaches might be a lot more hesitant to take a job/roster spot with a Big 10 or SEC whipping boy when they're winning games and going to the playoffs in the Big 12 or ACC.

I’d like to think Riley is still at ou if the sec move wasn’t happening

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1 minute ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Iowa and Iowa State profit on their own.  Have for years.

Last year Iowa had $650k in student fees and Iowa State had $1,847,367 in student fees.   This is my point, some allocations come from fees, which are just pre-sold student activity tickets.   The way USA Today publishes it though, they mix them with school funds in aggregate.   You have to drill in to find the detail, and I don't plan on doing that for 60 schools, hence the disclaimer.   

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Just now, Hurtlocker said:

Last year Iowa had $650k in student fees and Iowa State had $1,847,367 in student fees.   This is my point, some allocations come from fees, which are just pre-sold student activity tickets.   The way USA Today publishes it though, they mix them with school funds in aggregate.   You have to drill in to find the detail, and I don't plan on doing that for 60 schools, hence the disclaimer.   

I'm assuming this is because they make students pay for season tickets separately from tuition?

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3 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I’d like to think Riley is still at ou if the sec move wasn’t happening

I think that was absolutely the catalyst for his move.

What would be interesting is if he knew USC was going to be headed to the Big 10 when he got there, or if he was assuming a Pac 12 schedule.

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16 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Found this interesting:

c6a93683de04856fec1d73e3b74c2632.png

If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as "school funding", even though some are just student tickets to all events as a fee and shouldn't count, then do a P/L on it, these are the current P5 teams that pop up (these are in order from most to least and doesn't include privates because I don't feel like looking them all up individually):

  • Turns profit on own (25)- Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan, A&M, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, LSU, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Louisville
  • Less than $5m in loss (e.g. student ticket crowd) (8) - Iowa, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, WVU, Iowa State, Tennessee, Minnesota, South Carolina.
  • $5-$15m in loss (10)- NC State, UNC, Ole Miss, Utah, GTech, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia, Washington State.
  • $15m-$25m in loss (5) - Oregon State, VTech, Washington, Maryland, Arizona State
  • +$25m in loss (4) - Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Rutgers.

Not sure what year you're looking at or the source, but OSU breaks even or profits with minimal student fees.

Oklahoma State’s athletic department had total operating expenses of $103,317,155 while the school’s revenues reached $104,404,398 for the 2021-22 fiscal year, according to Scott Wright of the OKLAHOMAN.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2023/02/16/Colleges/oklahoma-state-athletics-financials.aspx#:~:text=Oklahoma State's athletic department had,Scott Wright of the OKLAHOMAN.

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5 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think that was absolutely the catalyst for his move.

What would be interesting is if he knew USC was going to be headed to the Big 10 when he got there, or if he was assuming a Pac 12 schedule.

Bullshit. It's crazy to me that people on a rival's board takes the bitchass ou fan approach to this topic. You all can't think of any other possible reason someone might want to coach in LA instead of Norman? Really? A coach with enormous success moves from one blueblood to another and think he's scared? Fuck off with this bullshit. I'm not a fan of Coach Riley necessarily, but I get very gruntled when sooner fans cry and moan that someone dared to think another program might be preferable to their own, especially when the ended up with Coach Vegetables.

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10 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I'm assuming this is because they make students pay for season tickets separately from tuition?

Exactly.   Some schools charge them after, some build them into fees for loans.   Some just do small amounts, some fees cover all student tickets to all sports.   It's an anomaly that doesn't matter in the finance comparison, but its hard to strip out.

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22 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

Found this interesting:

c6a93683de04856fec1d73e3b74c2632.png

If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as "school funding", even though some are just student tickets to all events as a fee and shouldn't count, then do a P/L on it, these are the current P5 teams that pop up (these are in order from most to least and doesn't include privates because I don't feel like looking them all up individually):

  • Turns profit on own (25)- Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan, A&M, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, LSU, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Louisville
  • Less than $5m in loss (e.g. student ticket crowd) (8) - Iowa, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, WVU, Iowa State, Tennessee, Minnesota, South Carolina.
  • $5-$15m in loss (10)- NC State, UNC, Ole Miss, Utah, GTech, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia, Washington State.
  • $15m-$25m in loss (5) - Oregon State, VTech, Washington, Maryland, Arizona State
  • +$25m in loss (4) - Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Rutgers.

I'll believe A&M actually turns a profit on it's own when someone other than aggy provides the number. 

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5 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Not sure what year you're looking at or the source, but OSU breaks even or profits with minimal student fees.

Oklahoma State’s athletic department had total operating expenses of $103,317,155 while the school’s revenues reached $104,404,398 for the 2021-22 fiscal year, according to Scott Wright of the OKLAHOMAN.

https://www.sportsbusinessjournal.com/Daily/Issues/2023/02/16/Colleges/oklahoma-state-athletics-financials.aspx#:~:text=Oklahoma State's athletic department had,Scott Wright of the OKLAHOMAN.

In 2022, Oklahoma State reported $75,606 in student fees and a $12,934,006 allocation from the school.

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3 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Bullshit. It's crazy to me that people on a rival's board takes the bitchass ou fan approach to this topic. You all can't think of any other possible reason someone might want to coach in LA instead of Norman? Really? A coach with enormous success moves from one blueblood to another and think he's scared? Fuck off with this bullshit. I'm not a fan of Coach Riley necessarily, but I get very gruntled when sooner fans cry and moan that someone dared to think another program might be preferable to their own, especially when the ended up with Coach Vegetables.

I think OU is gonna be real fucking average in the SEC regardless of who their coach is.

There are plenty of reasons he'd rather be in LA, but even with the move to the Big 10, he has a much easier slate than staying in Norman would have given him.

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8 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think OU is gonna be real fucking average in the SEC regardless of who their coach is.

There are plenty of reasons he'd rather be in LA, but even with the move to the Big 10, he has a much easier slate than staying in Norman would have given him.

You sure??

Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, Washington, and Oregon are all in the top 10 right now.

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14 minutes ago, Hurtlocker said:

In 2022, Oklahoma State reported $75,606 in student fees and a $12,934,006 allocation from the school.

Are you intentionally ignoring the next sentence?

"After all expenses, OSU was left with “just shy of” $1.1M in profits, though that includes a “one-time institutional support payment” of $12,934,006 from the university. That was done to “help the athletic department overcome a loss” of $14,192,693 from the COVID-impacted 2020-21 fiscal year.

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1 minute ago, TexArcher said:

You sure??

Ohio St, Michigan, Penn St, Washington, and Oregon are all in the top 10 right now.

How many of those teams will they play annually?  At most it will be the 2 west coast schools and probably no more than 1 of those Rust Belt schools.  Rest of the schedule is a diet of Indianas, Northwesterns, and Nebraskas.  And who knows how sustainable the current successes at Oregon and Washington are.  Washington has proven to have as low of a floor as you can get in a bad year.

We're speculating about why Riley left OU, and at the time he left he likely had no clue about what college football would look like in 2024, other than OU and UT going to the SEC.

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11 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Are you intentionally ignoring the next sentence?

"After all expenses, OSU was left with “just shy of” $1.1M in profits, though that includes a “one-time institutional support payment” of $12,934,006 from the university. That was done to “help the athletic department overcome a loss” of $14,192,693 from the COVID-impacted 2020-21 fiscal year.

So you agreed with the numbers.

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49 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

I’d like to think Riley is still at ou if the sec move wasn’t happening

Not so sure about that. He got a double in his salary and gets to upgrade lifestyle. He is also on the record as not wanting to coach too long. USC would have been a no brainer for any coach regardless of conference affiliation. 

Front Office Sports on X: "Lincoln Riley owned two homes in Norman,  Oklahoma. This one, seen below, is still up for sale at $1.9 million. His  new, 3-acre coastline estate in Los

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27 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Uhm ou owned this conference.  The move to the sec meant he had to deal with bama, lsu, Georgia, etc.  but hey I live in California so I don’t blame him for wanting to be here

Yeah, but that has nothing to do with ou sucking, and Norman in particular sucking.  I'm not sure what there even is to debate here.  If he believed he could win at any blueblood, then of course he left Norman for LA.  That's the easiest upgrade ever.  Why would it have anything to do with conference realignment?

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22 minutes ago, 'stache said:

You characterized OSU as routinely operating at a loss. That's not true, they routinely break even or have a small profit. I don't think anyone could reasonably consider anything related to covid as a "routine" year. 

Are you quoting yourself, because he did not call it routine.  He literally said "If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as 'school funding'..."

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6 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

Are you quoting yourself, because he did not call it routine.  He literally said "If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as 'school funding'..."

The tweet speaks in generalities, and using finances from a single year affected by covid to fit within that generality is misleading. OSU is T2, breaks even on its own, most years. It only fits T3 for the one year affected by covid. 

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1 hour ago, Al_4_ISU said:

I think that was absolutely the catalyst for his move.

What would be interesting is if he knew USC was going to be headed to the Big 10 when he got there, or if he was assuming a Pac 12 schedule.

I would say no, but if I were him I'd still prefer coaching in Big vs SEC

49 minutes ago, Sir Ulrich said:

Not so sure about that. He got a double in his salary and gets to upgrade lifestyle. He is also on the record as not wanting to coach too long. USC would have been a no brainer for any coach regardless of conference affiliation. 

Front Office Sports on X: "Lincoln Riley owned two homes in Norman,  Oklahoma. This one, seen below, is still up for sale at $1.9 million. His  new, 3-acre coastline estate in Los

Huge price difference.  I think that California home is a fixer upper

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33 minutes ago, 'stache said:

The tweet speaks in generalities, and using finances from a single year affected by covid to fit within that generality is misleading. OSU is T2, breaks even on its own, most years. It only fits T3 for the one year affected by covid. 

But aren't you counting that $13mil twice?  By my understanding of it, OSU lost around $14mil in 20-21 because of Covid.  To offset this loss, the university paid in almost $13mil during the 21-22 season.  

You're saying the 21-22 season was profitable by about a million, but that includes the almost $13mil to offset the year prior.  So if you move that to 20-21 to offset that loss, doesn't that leave 21-22 at a big loss?  21-22 might still have been affected by Covid, I suppose, but the numbers seem to me to show a profit for that year only because they got a big university payment to offset the previous year.

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2 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

Found this interesting:

c6a93683de04856fec1d73e3b74c2632.png

If you look at the latest finances and strip out allocations as "school funding", even though some are just student tickets to all events as a fee and shouldn't count, then do a P/L on it, these are the current P5 teams that pop up (these are in order from most to least and doesn't include privates because I don't feel like looking them all up individually):

  • Turns profit on own (25)- Indiana, Georgia, Ohio State, Purdue, Kansas State, Michigan, A&M, Michigan State, Texas, Florida, Oregon, Nebraska, Penn State, Clemson, Arkansas, Kansas, Auburn, Bama, LSU, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Missouri, Oklahoma and Louisville
  • Less than $5m in loss (e.g. student ticket crowd) (8) - Iowa, Texas Tech, Wisconsin, WVU, Iowa State, Tennessee, Minnesota, South Carolina.
  • $5-$15m in loss (10)- NC State, UNC, Ole Miss, Utah, GTech, Oklahoma State, Florida State, Colorado, Virginia, Washington State.
  • $15m-$25m in loss (5) - Oregon State, VTech, Washington, Maryland, Arizona State
  • +$25m in loss (4) - Cal, UCLA, Arizona, Rutgers.

What i find interesting is that this moron doesn't know what a Bluebloods is.   Turning a profit doesn't make a Blueblood.   

Without wasting any braincells on remembering all the Bluebloods that have come and gone, I'm not sure there's been 25 Bluebloods total...

Bluebloods are schools who can generate enough revenue to shoulder the bulk of the cash for an entire conference,  even through down periods. As revenue sources changed several old Bluebloods died....

It used to be in ticket sales, ECT they would generate at home and more so, on the road.  Now it's media value...

It isn't hard to separate the Bluebloods from the elites and the elites from the good programs...

Now, among the select few true Bluebloods, there are three that are kings... Notre Dame, USC, and Texas.  They've been called the Glamour programs by more than one national sports mouth...  So besides money (Kelly from ND to LSU and who knows why else), it isn't hard to see why someone would leave OU for USC...  Even when comparing apples to apples, they aren't equal. 

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rumors swelling that FSU and Clemson are headed to SEC 'Sooner rather than later' 

the reality of this is unclear, but supposed leveraged some work Texas and OU did already on their GOR issues

I still suspect the announcement will be a bit more like 'We're out in 2030' to see if they can create some chain reactions to blow things up, but may be time to warm up the popcorn machine already. 

https://www.sportskeeda.com/college-football/news-clemson-leaving-acc-inevitable-school-reportedly-finds-way-break-120m-gor-2025-move-sec-conference-realignment-takes-wild-turn

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15 hours ago, Hurtlocker said:

No no, the A package is the Mouse, the B package is Fox.  

In the A package they get:

  • The top 4 overall picks
  • 6 of the top 8
  • 8 of the top 12 and
  • 12 of the top 20 picks
  • They also get the basketball and football CCGs

Fox, with the B package, gets to pick in the gaps of the above, and I'm guessing it goes 1 to 1 after 20.    However, Fox gets 26 games for Fox and FS1, which is basically 2 per week.   If you figure ESPN's is similar, but with better content, you should see roughly four games a week on ABC, Fox, FS1 and an ESPN channel.   The rest, that aren't on Thursday or Friday, will likely fall to ESPN+, but so far this year they have had more of the games that would stream land on something like the U.    To get to these kinds of payouts they need at least two T1 a week.

It also is likely to change.    With 12 teams you have 54 conference games a year.   With 16 you have 72.    They didn't pay the four new teams $120m a year for all that content to go on streaming.   My guess is they get an ABC/ESPN/FOX on Saturday, and some of these games fall to ESPN late night or on Friday.

The difference between the A and B package is the top 4 games. After that they are the same IIRC. What I saw rumored was those 4 games would be required to be on ABC.

The contract stipulated how many games had to be on FOX but nothing specified how many were to be on ABC which was my point.

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1 hour ago, TexLonghorn said:

But aren't you counting that $13mil twice?  By my understanding of it, OSU lost around $14mil in 20-21 because of Covid.  To offset this loss, the university paid in almost $13mil during the 21-22 season.  

You're saying the 21-22 season was profitable by about a million, but that includes the almost $13mil to offset the year prior.  So if you move that to 20-21 to offset that loss, doesn't that leave 21-22 at a big loss?  21-22 might still have been affected by Covid, I suppose, but the numbers seem to me to show a profit for that year only because they got a big university payment to offset the previous year.

I assume that's a function of accounting that I don't care to figure out. But it feels like you might be the one double counting the shortfall.

Ultimately, the question is whether OSU breaks even on its own (T2) or requires subsidies from the academic side to break even (T3). The academic side made one subsidizing payment of $13M to address a shortfall during the Covid season. I agree it's confusing to call the excess "profit" but that's not really what I'm looking at with respect to the tweet about tiers. OSU athletics is self sustaining in ordinary circumstances and hence T2 under that tweet's heirarchy (which I agree is not really a good measure, but I'm responding to its substance).

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3 minutes ago, LTbear said:

If you've spent any time in Nebraska you know those seats needs to be wider, so a few seats gotta go.

Think thats a pretty common stadium problem unfortunately. Big boys in a lot of places defiantly taking up 2-3 of the tiny ass "spaces" in the bleachers in a lot of college stadiums makes for a pretty bad fan experience when your seat gets swallowed up.

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30 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

The difference between the A and B package is the top 4 games. After that they are the same IIRC. What I saw rumored was those 4 games would be required to be on ABC.

The contract stipulated how many games had to be on FOX but nothing specified how many were to be on ABC which was my point.

Not sure on the rumor, but, financially, these will all be on ABC or FOX.   You don't spend T1 money to put them on ESPN2 or FS1.   You have 25-30 other games, each, outside these 20 to dump on the other channels.

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3 hours ago, 'stache said:

You characterized OSU as routinely operating at a loss. That's not true, they routinely break even or have a small profit. I don't think anyone could reasonably consider anything related to covid as a "routine" year. 

No, I said "using last year's numbers"

If you want to go break down a multiple year analysis, feel free.   But last year Oklahoma State took $13m from the school, regardless of it you liked that it appeared on the ledger or not.

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