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Posted
3 minutes ago, Tailgate said:

Cannot wait to see what happens when Vanguard opens up their wallet for Bitcoin. It will happen.

I've long thought the welcome to the big leagues moment will be when employers start to allow employees to buy bitcoin (actual purchase or ETF) with their 401ks. In a sense it will be purchasing an amount of bitcoin and putting it away for decades. That is where the scarcity of btc will come into play with less and less bitcoin for sale.

While there are now ~20m bitcoin in circulation with another 1m left to be mined, there are estimates that there are actually closer to 14-15m available. The rest being lost for a variety of reasons. If true, 15m is a small number. 

Posted
On 5/19/2025 at 1:51 PM, Brisketexan said:

If the USD goes "poof"....pray tell, what GOOD will your crypto be?  How will you use it to procure goods and services here in the "we don't actually have a currency" USA?  Will you be able to access the internet?  Use electricity?

If the USD goes "poof," none of that shit will matter or be in play.

If you are investing in a hedge against the dollar's complete and total collapse, as a resident of this country, you'd be much smarter investing in crates of ammunition.

Man, don't give them good ideas.

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Posted (edited)
On 5/19/2025 at 1:23 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

That is where the scarcity of btc will come into play with less and less bitcoin for sale.

nm

Edited by Incredulity
Posted

A few weeks ago the OCC, which regulates banks, pushed out a new order enabling commercial banks to custody and buy/sell cryptos to customers. https://www.occ.gov/news-issuances/news-releases/2025/nr-occ-2025-42.html

You are going to start seeing, when you open up your bank account, Checking, USD Savings, and Bitcoin/Tether accounts all listed together. 

The stablecoin bill, which is about to pass, is a serious problem for banks, because most banks are holding onto your cash and paying 0% interest, and for Visa/Mastercard who need their 2.5%. 

And when you have the option to save in a currency that doesn't depreciate to Bolivia and they're oh by the way they're not making more of it, you will do that too. 

Money printer going brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. 

 

Posted

Next MSTY payment announced tomorrow. I think a lot of people are going to be pissed if it’s 1.10-1.40, like it should be. The underlying and the synthetic positions were all down, but the weeklies kicked ass. Will be interesting to see if they juice it up based on the strength from the previous income that was withheld.

Posted
On 6/4/2025 at 7:54 PM, Luka said:

I wish you luck. The engineering that goes into this security makes me a little uneasy. Thus I’m sitting it out. 

There’s a good follow on X/Twitter/Youtube called RetireonDividends that downloads the daily holdings/transactions for MSTY/CONY and a few others at Yieldmax that helps paint what the firm does. He actually had the MSTY fund manager and the Yieldmax CEO both on for an interview and answered a ton of questions about prospectus changes that address NAV decay and how estimated ROC is deployed for tax advantages. 

Posted
7 hours ago, Luka said:

Big pivot here. Now just need to drop prosecution of non custodial mixer developers like Samourai. 

You mean drop prosection of money laundering operations?

  • 3 weeks later...
Posted
12 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

MSTR back over 400. BTC 107,500. The hour draws near. 

I believe that we're due for another BTC pop. Perhaps closer to 125.

caveat: if there are negative, external events, then it could easily drop as well.

 

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I believe that we're due for another BTC pop. Perhaps closer to 125.

caveat: if there are negative, external events, then it could easily drop as well.

 

Ya, I think it could go higher or lower as well. 

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Posted

Honest question - why would you trade bitcoin, which is going to the moon eventually, for a cheeseburger which is literally going into the shitter in a couple of hours?

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

On that note I did buy a nice steak n Shake burger combo last week with bitcoin. Paid from my cashapp. Scanned a QR code on the register. Done in seconds. @Captainant

lulz that's conducting a transaction in the Cash App ecosystem, not happening live on the blockchain. It's being conducted in BTC valuation, but you're relying and trusting a third party financial institution. Which is diametrically opposite of the BTC whitepaper's core design principal of trustless payments.

You don't even get a txid because it's not on any blockchain anywhere, it's on the same old """dinosaur slow and inefficent""" payment systems that dollars flow through as well. Which is what BTC was supposed to be innovating upon, not using to scale lmfao

Correcting myself - they do appear to rectify the transaction on the blockchain eventually, however the instant nature of the transaction clearing is not BTC. That's the Cash App saying "trust us" while they wait for their BTC transactions to process through the blockchain.

Edited by Captainant
Posted
3 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Honest question - why would you trade bitcoin, which is going to the moon eventually, for a cheeseburger which is literally going into the shitter in a couple of hours?

Say that someone is sitting on a large (or small) capital gain on crypto. If Sen. Lummis' language is kept, it would exempt <$200 transactions from reporting the sale as a capital gain.  Now if you have $2m in capital gains, that's a long haul to not report the capital gains across many many transactions but it legally eliminates the tax owed.

Of course if someone thinks that BTC is going to 10x, you don't want to spend $15 on a burger that will eventually effectively cost you $150.

 

Posted (edited)

LOOOOOOLZ you're not conducting BTC transactions. You're conducting side-chain transactions with third parties that you've chosen to trust. You're just playing with wildly inefficient monopoly money that does not even do what you evengelize it as doing.

 

To even start using lightning, you consign off a portion of your BTC to an open and run a ledger with that vendor and have to trust that they won't just run off with your funds and DDoS your ability to send a closing transaction before they write out a block to the main BTC chain. It's no more secure than just doing business with a bank at that point. You're just doing it with WAY more steps and wasting a shitton of energy to conduct your commerce

Edited by Captainant
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Posted

There is one valuable utility to these coins and it is bypassing currency exchanges which are useless.  My brother gets paid in USD and converts to real using BTC and pays next to nothing for it.  I totally see the utility there.  As a store of value, fuck off.  But to move quickly from different currencies, hell yes.  

Posted

Might be getting outside the btc conversation, but for the above wouldn't an account with Wise be what he needs for card transactions if he's not withdrawing from a foreign country atm?

Posted
On 7/1/2025 at 2:12 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Might be getting outside the btc conversation, but for the above wouldn't an account with Wise be what he needs for card transactions if he's not withdrawing from a foreign country atm?

Wise charges you similar forex fees to banks, just they roll it into their market rate so they claim no fees.

Posted

North of 113k now.

i believe btc was 13k in Sept 2020. Not sure I would have believe that we would be adding a 1 in front of it 5 years later. Wonder if we will add another leading 1 by 2030.

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Posted
On 7/10/2025 at 11:44 AM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

North of 113k now.

i believe btc was 13k in Sept 2020. Not sure I would have believe that we would be adding a 1 in front of it 5 years later. Wonder if we will add another leading 1 by 2030.

a woman is making a funny face and saying you know it and i know it

Posted
On 7/12/2025 at 3:49 AM, Tailgate said:

Two straight days this week with $1B in Bitcoin ETF inflows.

6f159f52e0e58c92d5cd19682186ff88.jpg

This is the argument that creates a $250k Bitcoin, or whatever. Plus or minus. The demand is high and outpace new supply, not that new supply is necessarily on the market. Of course there is always profit taking whether you bought at $1 or $100k.

however bitcoin is becoming more mainstream every day especially as it become accepted by the us govt.

to be clear, I think we could easily see $80k before $250k. You need a strong stomach to own bitcoin.

Posted
On 7/13/2025 at 12:02 PM, Tailgate said:

‘We Expect Bitcoin to Top $200K by the End of Year’, Says Bitwise CIO

https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/07/12/we-expect-bitcoin-to-top-usd200k-by-the-end-of-year-says-bitwise-cio

Even assuming BTC continues to generally rise over time, the cycles have down turns. Do prior cycles suggest a 67% rise in the next 5 months is realistic? It seems like you’d want to take some gains soon rather than continuing to buy at the top

Posted
27 minutes ago, B00M said:

Even assuming BTC continues to generally rise over time, the cycles have down turns. Do prior cycles suggest a 67% rise in the next 5 months is realistic? It seems like you’d want to take some gains soon rather than continuing to buy at the top

Each cycle is unique especially now that ETFs are in place and you have a crypto-friendly administration even though they're unpredictable. I don't buy when someone attempts to model the current cycle by reviewing previous history. 

Posted

I’m rarely a first adopter but I think I’m going to jump on the BTC train through the fidelity ETF. 

I’m trying to be an early adopter on other investments though, seems like mass disruption is coming in key areas maybe not on a civilization scale but currency, energy, AI, transportation, robotics. Not sure those all belong in this discussion but I do think there is about to be some serious wealth generation across disruptive sectors. 

Posted (edited)

CPI came in hotter so some pressure on BTC today (gold too) trying to figure out the entry point. I’m a long term hold but like finding the precise time to buy. 

our asset mix is HEAVY real estate, HEAVY private businesses, followed by cash, physical gold/silver (inherited), broad market exposure and then disruptive sectors/stocks/assets. I think it’s time for BTC. 

 

Edited by troph
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

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But seriously, congrats. If you have the stomach, your open mind helped you make a strong long term financial decision. 

Thanks, recently I’ve taken control over that last tranche of investments - the disruptive category and it’s really interesting when you buy assets and stocks that you believe in (granted your investment thesis still has to be right), then market sentiment and macro market influences are timing factors and nothing else. I’m having a great time doing the eval and picking. 

FBTC beat out a nuclear energy ETF and a fusion energy stock (broader energy play with exposure to fusion) for this round of buying. BTC seems way safer and less speculative tbqh.

Edited by troph
Posted
2 minutes ago, Hard Times said:

More safeguards and regulation is good for crypto no matter what the crypto-anarchists thinks. The real key is to allow and assist institutional banks as custodians of crypto which will allow people to own crypto with much less risk. People should still be allowed to self-custody but don't create barriers to casual ownership. (I know the Jamie Dimons of the world may say they don't want to be custodians for fake assets but banks will always go to the money.)

Also people need to be told the truth of what they're buying. I've run into more than 1 person who says they're in Bitcoin because they bought a meme token. No, you bought some magic beans from a stranger.

When the Dave Ramsey show (maybe not him personally) are softly saying they're ok with minor crypto speculation, this industry isn't going anywhere.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

I could potentially buy that, but Warren being the messenger kills it immediately. Remember her wanting to build the "anti crypto army"?

but she has zero power. even admitting that she's open to crypto ideas is a big step

Posted
35 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

depends on your time horizon, but BTC wayyy more likely to go to 1M than 0 at this point. 

Hopefully I won’t ever need this investment for walking around money. 

Posted (edited)

alright I’m in.  Physical gold, silver and BTC. I got guns too. No conspiracy theories though and still liberal as fuck. 

Edited by troph
Posted (edited)

What's happening now is that cryptos (mainly tether/USDC and bitcoin) are becoming the new payment rails. Stablecoins will eliminate Paypal, Zelle, Venmo, all that shit. Eventually, they replace Visa/Mastercard. Zero transaction fees and instant settlement. So regular people will be buying and holding crypto in large volumes in the near future. Second issue, which crypto do you want to hold? USD (getting money printed to Bolivia) or the hardest most secure permissionless currency ever created and oh yeah it's the one everyone is using. Crypto is disintermediating money, just like the internet did 20 years ago to the rest of the economy.

Incidentally, I was hesitant on Bitcoin early on because of transaction fees and lack of staking. But after screwing around for a while, I realized those issues are all solved with layer twos. So in a year or two we will be able to earn interest at a market rate and have lots of other apps and services. We have already solved the transaction fee problem. The tax issue is a problem, but if we get the "under $600" solution then I am not worried in the long run. I would argue we've mostly solved the political problem as well.

The other thing that sold me was RISK ADJUSTED return. I could buy a pharma company, or Palantir, but that is risky. The BTC adoption process isn't risky, I am observing it happening directly.

Edited by Thetexashammer
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

So did you go in on the BTC etf from fidelity or did you open a Crypto account at fidelity and “buy” BTC?

I’m in the fidelity ETF, FBTC. Honestly recent experience grappling with physical metals is a bit much. I don’t know all of what buying actual bitcoin entails but I figure for a long term hold - inflation / currency hedge - growth asset play - with a .25% expense structure, 99%+ tracking of actual bitcoin value because the ETF owns actual and only bitcoin with no options or other funny business on the ETF and the only notable drawback is it’s not tradable 24/7 that it was just fine. 

while it has unique features in the end I see it as an explosive growth asset and part of a disruptive trend among finance, transportation, AI, energy and robotics. There are other growth stocks and sectors but I’m hunting these 5 mostly. 

Now I need to invest 100x additional to see this run up to $250-500k or more. In due time maybe. Getting my sea legs as it were right now. 

i am interested in why owning actual crypto is the way to go though. I can see it for use as legal tender but buy and hold?

Edited by troph
Posted (edited)

Well I’ve lost digital pictures at multiple times in my life and even as recent as 2016-2018 so until recently it was probably a bad idea for me to own bitcoin directly. Advent of the Wall Street ETF was very helpful for me. 

as for a true apocalypse, well I don't think anything digital will matter and we have tangible gold and silver and a couple of guns and more important a lot of water and shelter that remains cool in the summer without HVAC, so we have tons of advantages.

as for central bank currency hyper-devaluation and fascist control (for purposes of this post we can assume left and right are capable but I’m pretty sure everyone knows how I view the current political risks), that is a risk, but for now I have to live with it. Owning bitcoin is a way to alleviate concerns, but it not my first priority. Our first priority is working on a second place to rightfully live (active measures ongoing), then we will add a second passport, same place as the second place with standard citizenship applications over time or if financially feasible a second passport simply for sale (unlikely but Malta, Nevis, etc.).

from there it’s where to hold assets and even if I wanted to put more in digital currency not sure that’s feasible for a while. 5/6th of our NW is tied up in physical real estate (not a REITs) and closely held business interests (not publicly traded). The good news is the monetization of those will well outpace any currency devaluation and should even outpace bitcoin appreciation, the remaining issue - which I will admit at this point is unclear to me - is how to be flexible with the banking / domicile / location / type of assets to move that into when asset exits occur. With a second passport I could do a lot, but some of that depends on making drastic moves like forsaking US citizenship. Quite frankly I never thought that even remotely likely, but today, with laws passing at every turn that make my life either incredibly difficult or worse functionally unlawful, it is now something I have to consider. Unfortunately I need 5 more years and honestly will probably fall short by 25-30% of a number that makes all of this totally and easily doable (purchasing a second passport and having enough wealth to be citizenship agnostic). But we will see.

Edited by troph
Posted

@troph I see nothing wrong with exposure to bitcoin or other crypto via ETFs. Some crypto enthusiasts believe otherwise. Self-custody gives you more control and privacy but you create risks. An analogy would be that if you buried physical money somewhere but potentially could lost the map. Or become incapacitated without telling someone where to dig. There's no customer service to call to help you when you self-custody. Whereas if you lost your Fidelity password or were locked out of your Fidelity account, you or your family have legal protection/options to recover the funds. Even with a crypto ETF.

One thing to always remember is that self-custody crypto is kept on the public ledger and not on a device like a desktop or even a USB/hardware wallet. The wallet acts as an access point but losing the wallet or desktop neither deletes the crypto nor your ownership stake. The key point is that you have to safely retain your password and/or recovery code. Hopefully in a separate and secure location. 

Posted (edited)
56 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

@troph I see nothing wrong with exposure to bitcoin or other crypto via ETFs. Some crypto enthusiasts believe otherwise. Self-custody gives you more control and privacy but you create risks. An analogy would be that if you buried physical money somewhere but potentially could lost the map. Or become incapacitated without telling someone where to dig. There's no customer service to call to help you when you self-custody. Whereas if you lost your Fidelity password or were locked out of your Fidelity account, you or your family have legal protection/options to recover the funds. Even with a crypto ETF.

One thing to always remember is that self-custody crypto is kept on the public ledger and not on a device like a desktop or even a USB/hardware wallet. The wallet acts as an access point but losing the wallet or desktop neither deletes the crypto nor your ownership stake. The key point is that you have to safely retain your password and/or recovery code. Hopefully in a separate and secure location. 

 

with actual experience with tangible metals I can say I'm not quite ready for owning actual bitcoin (which is probably a lot easier). but as a simple example, I'd probably put the recovery password in a safe deposit box at the bank if I had any sizeable amount of bitcoin (at this point more than 2-3 coins). as with any alt asset, there are logistics, the burden of which you have to be ok with.

for me right now, i just need the inflation/currency hedge and the explosive growth so an ETF is great for now and maybe forever, but as my planning above suggests, if we need to make a radical move with assets, we will and at that point losing a bitcoin run up is not the point (presumably by then the ETF has the run up covered), the point is to be flexible and mobile. so liquidating assets, buying bitcoin, moving, then reestablishing a diversified asset base is possible with an agnostic attitude to value because of the temporal nature of the transaction.  

 

31 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

All reasonable. I'm sure you've looked, but St Kitts does the passport for sale thing.

For someone considering the moves that you are, holding bitcoin in self custody will definitely make sense for at least one phase of the process. If/when you actually do physically move, having your wealth in bitcoin will mean it can go with you wherever you want. It is borderless. Then set up banking etc where you end up. The devil will be in the details of the conversion into bitcoin and its timing.

some resources if you ever need them

WE RUN BTC

How to Get Started With Bitcoin Self Custody | River

I get St Kitts and Nevis confused, one or both have passports for sale. Malta is the gold standard based on my limited review, especially for EU travel. both have passports simply for sale.

Edited by troph
Posted
47 minutes ago, Fiscal dominance said:

It's the same thing. Sorry, I missed the Nevis in your initial post.

that's what I thought, but I still get confused.

Posted (edited)

A Schengen passport get you access to the entire EU. So you can buy an apartment in one country, and then just rent it out later. No guarantee you get you money back, but you'll get some return.

I strongly recommend the lifestyle. I loved northern Italy. Walking, biking, cycling everywhere. I eventually realized a car didn't matter, and not having a car was a point of pride. Live in the Centro Storico. I had three grocery stores in walking distance. It was lovely.

Taxes are an issue, but it can be dealt with. Medical isn't really too bad, you won't be comfortable until you get there and do it. Don't let it stand in the way. Consider doing 90 days in an AirBnB just to get used to living there and evaluate you options for a permanent location.

It's worth noting that living costs are probably 1/3 cheaper in most places, like Italy or France. 

If I am able to get it done, I will be in either Paris, the French Riviera, or northern Italy. The way my bitcoin is seemingly going it's just a matter of time. But who knows really.

Edited by Thetexashammer
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