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Posted
11 minutes ago, irishtexan said:

Rain chances on my app went from 98% to 66% in a matter of minutes and from 2" down to 1". TLDR - we ain't getting shit

 

You're wrong.

We'll get massive, flooding rains, starting about 500 yards EAST of the lake recharge zone.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

You're wrong.

We'll get massive, flooding rains, starting about 500 yards EAST of the lake recharge zone.

I’m headed to Horseshoe Bay tomorrow for a long weekend so I’m fully expecting it to pour the entire time

Posted
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

You're wrong.

We'll get massive, flooding rains, starting about 500 yards EAST of the lake recharge zone.

Shoal Creek gonna get slaughtered.

And all that water will pass Longhorn dam and head on down the river.

 

 

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Posted
21 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Big ol' glob of storms forming from Rocksprings to Llano on the radar right now. Looks to slowly creep east and drop a bunch of rain over the lakes and Greater Austin area between 9 pm and 2 am.

Not sure if this will get stronger, last, or direction it's moving... but might put some water in some aquifers and wells  🤔

IMG_20250611_195327.jpg.149bbe34b9b4d1f612613e8715d39195.jpg

Posted
29 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Big ol' glob of storms forming from Rocksprings to Llano on the radar right now. Looks to slowly creep east and drop a bunch of rain over the lakes and Greater Austin area between 9 pm and 2 am.

I’m not sure how to post a sarcastic laugh but the force field is gonna prove you incorrect.

Posted
3 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

My phone is predicting 2.75 inches overnight here in Round Rock. But that's true just about every night.

⬆⬆⬆ There's a sex joke in this... ⬆⬆⬆    😎

Posted

This is one of my favorite images to watch when there are weather events.  You can really see the low pulling in the moisture from the Pacific and the disturbances riding along the west side of the low.  When those two meet, you get a lot of rain. 

 

G19_fd_band08_24fr_20250611-2116.gif

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Posted

That rain out west is fucking bullseye. Not widespread enough but it’s pinpoint where we’d want it. Already 2 inches in the sweet spot. Too bad it isn’t a 7 county wide monster storm. 

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Posted

Rain Timeline From Texas Storm Chasers David Reimer.  

 

Texas Weather

Flash Flood Threat Escalates Across Central Texas Overnight
By David Reimer
June 11, 2025

Flash flood risk map for Texas on June 11, 2025 evening, showing a moderate risk of flash flooding across Central Texas including Waco, Austin, Killeen, and College Station through Thursday morning.
The flash flood threat continues to increase across portions of Central Texas as we head through tonight into Thursday morning. The National Weather Service has issued a Moderate Risk for excessive rainfall, now extending from Waco, Killeen, and Austin southward into the San Antonio metro area, based on the latest observational trends and high-resolution model guidance.

Flash flood risk map for Texas on June 11, 2025 evening, showing a moderate risk of flash flooding across Central Texas including Waco, Austin, Killeen, and College Station through Thursday morning.
Flash flood outlook update for Wednesday evening, June 11th, 2025, highlights continued moderate flood risk across Central Texas with storms expected to persist overnight into Thursday morning.

Multiple rounds of thunderstorms are expected to develop and train across the same areas tonight, creating a dangerous flash flood setup. The 0Z run of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model shows an increasingly concerning scenario unfolding:

Updated Timeline (Based on 0Z HRRR Simulated Reflectivity)
Animated HRRR simulated radar showing forecast storms across Central Texas on June 11-12, 2025, with multiple rounds of rain and potential flash flooding overnight.
Click IMG to view animation. HRRR simulated radar loop for Wednesday night, June 11th into early Thursday, June 12th, showing continued storms across Central Texas with ongoing flash flood risk.

7 PM – 10 PM:
Scattered thunderstorms initiate across the Concho Valley, Edwards Plateau, and parts of Central Texas. Storms may initially be isolated but capable of heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds. A brief tornado can’t be ruled out.

10 PM – 1 AM:
Storms consolidate and move southeast into the I-35 corridor, impacting areas from Waco to Austin and San Antonio. Storms begin to train, dumping multiple rounds of torrential rain.

1 AM – 5 AM:
The flash flood risk peaks overnight as heavy rain bands repeatedly impact the Hill Country and the I-35 corridor. The HRRR suggests rainfall rates may exceed 1-3 inches per hour, with total accumulations of 5-8 inches possible in localized areas.

5 AM – 8 AM:
Heavy rainfall shifts southeast toward the coastal plain, with continued flooding possible near Houston, Victoria, and Southeast Texas before activity begins to diminish.

Key Concerns
Rapid flash flooding overnight, especially across urban areas, low-water crossings, and flood-prone regions.

Isolated totals of 5-8 inches of rain possible.

Saturated soils from recent rains will exacerbate runoff and flash flood risk.

Residents across Central Texas are urged to monitor forecasts and have multiple ways to receive warnings overnight. Never attempt to drive through flooded roadways.

Stay tuned for continued updates as this dangerous overnight rain event unfolds. You can keep up with the latest with our live weather stream here.

 

David Reimer
Owner and Baldy-in-Chief of Texas Storm Chasers, one of the state’s leading independent weather media brands. I specialize in severe weather coverage, real-time storm tracking, and digital weather communication. Passionate about keeping Texans informed, prepared, and engaged—one forecast at a time.
 

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Posted
2 hours ago, troph said:

That rain out west is fucking bullseye. Not widespread enough but it’s pinpoint where we’d want it. Already 2 inches in the sweet spot. Too bad it isn’t a 7 county wide monster storm. 

 

1 hour ago, troph said:

What we need or at least close to it… maybe not as much on the llano wowzers.

image.thumb.png.a96eb5d72f3d26e89956b584cbacbc47.png

Good lord! You weren't kidding. So damn happy for y'all!

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

Good lord! You weren't kidding. So damn happy for y'all!

That awesome one is from 2018 when the lakes filled in one weekend.

Edited by troph
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Posted
18 minutes ago, troph said:

That awesome one is from 2018 when the lakes filled in one weekend.

Ah. I was looking on my phone without glasses and missed the 2018 part by just zooming in on the red.

Posted
1 minute ago, Lerka Lerka said:

I’m glad the lakes filled up but that wall of water from the llano was not awesome 

I said as much. Blanco was turbo fucked too. People died. Fact is the typical way these lakes filled after long standing drought involves property damage and death. 😕

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Posted (edited)

I’m over in the Hausman/Babcock area and around the time of the tornado warning I also heard that weird buzzing sound.  It was very strange. The dogs even started getting jumpy.

Edited by CowboyFred
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Posted
10 minutes ago, Wilcox Cummingtonite said:

PDS Tornado Warning for Hays

Near 32 and Hwy 12, tornado debris on radar.  Just south of Wimberley.

Looks like short touch down, now may be done.

Posted
3 hours ago, troph said:

What we need or at least close to it… maybe not as much on the llano wowzers.

image.thumb.png.a96eb5d72f3d26e89956b584cbacbc47.png

Are Jacobs Well and Canyon Lake gonna receive much water  inflow from this storm??

Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Animated GIF

 

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

return of the jedi grizz frix GIF by Star Wars
 

Force field is in effect.  

Excited Star Wars GIF

 

Fuckload of rain in Central Austin. And it's coming down hard and has been for a while.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Hornius Emeritus said:

Austin Rain Dome still undefeated!  From Avery Tomaso.

 

Avery Tomaso.jpg

Damn, needed a lot more in western hill country feeding into the Highland Lakes, and Canyon Lake.

 

Water bomb dropped on New Braunfels and SA

IMG_20250612_073050.thumb.jpg.afe58e01bd6a760e616e62ff891cf4db.jpg

 

Edited by LTtxfan
Damn autocorrect
Posted
12 minutes ago, Cajun said:

I live here at Canyon Lake near Startzville.  It’s put about 3 days worth of evaporation back in the lake so far.  That’s it.

Sigh.

Yeah, just not getting those 5-7" rain totals across multiple counties like we need, to make any real dent in the lakes.  Something is always better than nothing, but this isn't going to cut it for real improvement in the lakes.

Still, the ground is primed and ready for mass runoff.  If we DO get a major hit, it'll be glorious.  

Posted
4 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Yeah, just not getting those 5-7" rain totals across multiple counties like we need, to make any real dent in the lakes.  Something is always better than nothing, but this isn't going to cut it for real improvement in the lakes.

Still, the ground is primed and ready for mass runoff.  If we DO get a major hit, it'll be glorious.  

Aquifer recharge zone got a huge hit last night so that’s a big win 

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Posted

to the point above about saturation, sandy creek flowing well on average rainfall last night. Man this is ready for a massive lake fill if we can hit triple 7’s on the slot machine. 

 

IMG_6842.jpeg

IMG_6841.jpeg

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Posted
8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

 

Still, the ground is primed and ready for mass runoff.  If we DO get a major hit, it'll be glorious.  

This is the hope that keeps me going.  I moved here in '21 specifically for the lake and that "life".  The graph has been at a downward slope almost to the day I moved in.  That flood we got last year put about 3 months of water back in CL, but that was all.  We're gonna need a couple of BIG ones stalled over Kerrville/Comfort/Sisterdale to really get this thing back to a level where I don't want to sell the boat.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

6.2” in my part of Comal County.
 

It was loud. Wife was up all night. 

That it was.  My dog crapped the bed a few times.  

Or was that me?

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Posted
9 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

Aquifer recharge zone got a huge hit last night so that’s a big win 

I was going to say the same thing.  and several creeks and rivers rely on the aquifer for flow so it's a very good thing. last I saw up 8 feet but that was over a week ago after the last round of rains, these are adding significant amounts too.

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Cajun said:

This is the hope that keeps me going.  I moved here in '21 specifically for the lake and that "life".  The graph has been at a downward slope almost to the day I moved in.  That flood we got last year put about 3 months of water back in CL, but that was all.  We're gonna need a couple of BIG ones stalled over Kerrville/Comfort/Sisterdale to really get this thing back to a level where I don't want to sell the boat.

unfortunately the lakes to be on for "that life" are really LBJ and Austin, Austin isn't a lake it's stupid (but nice, close to town, and expensive), but LBJ, pretty much what those of us who live on flood prevention reservoirs really want.

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Posted
37 minutes ago, Cajun said:

I live here at Canyon Lake near Startzville.  It’s put about 3 days worth of evaporation back in the lake so far.  That’s it.

Sigh.

Damn that sucks... when Canyon Lake levels are up it's a blast.

  • How many ramps are open on Canyon Lake now due to low water levels??
  • What's your favorite restaurant and bar hangouts around Canyon Lake?
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