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Posted

image.thumb.jpeg.e7a12972635461d794965cd3d187931e.jpeg

Tomahawks (TLAMs) would instantly change the war.  TLAMS have a range of 1,500 miles and would have to be tied to the US target accusation and satellite guidance system to be fully functional...  

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Posted
Just now, Parliament said:

How many?  Enough to truly matter?

They run $2 to $3M each, so the question is how many would the US consider to be excess stockpiles? The US probably now has less than 3k of them with a slow replenish rate (100ish or so a year would be my guess) and so what would be a solid number to provide to be useful in theater? 

What would 50 do? I think people don't realize how scary Tomahawks are, even if they are land-launchrd platforms.  It would in essence be able to cover anything in this blue shaded area. 

image.png.3910725d2d7600e0b8b38bc407b78177.png

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

They run $2 to $3M each, so the question is how many would the US consider to be excess stockpiles? The US probably now has less than 3k of them with a slow replenish rate (100ish or so a year would be my guess) and so what would be a solid number to provide to be useful in theater? 

What would 50 do? I think people don't realize how scary Tomahawks are, even if they are land-launchrd platforms.  It would in essence be able to cover anything in this blue shaded area. 

image.png.3910725d2d7600e0b8b38bc407b78177.png

I don't get the shading. Can they only fire east? St. Petersburg most definitely would be in range. 

Posted
2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I don't get the shading. Can they only fire east? St. Petersburg most definitely would be in range. 

Its just a simple illustration of how far 1500 miles is. The tool only allows so much shading at a time.

Posted (edited)

Sounds like the pro-EU folks are going to win in Moldova over the pro-old school communists/socialists/USSR fans.  And Moscow is then fully prepared to try and generate violent unrest.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

SIAP

 

What seems apparent to me is that Putin's Russia is very, very, very good at chess....until it's very, very, very bad at chess.

They are masterful at creating disruption, amplifying chaos (see their social media/trolling efforts against the west, which may be the best "bang for your buck" attacks in human history -- seriously, the mileage they've gotten out of something so easy and low-cost is incredible), and deception.

But they are terrible at the end-game stuff.  Putin has been incredibly successful in playing and manipulating Trump.....right up to the point when he's absolutely blowing it.  You always - ALWAYS - play up to Trump's ego.  You do not snub him.  And Trump respects leverage....and sees lack of leverage as weakness.  Russia had done incredibly well at this....until now.  In terms of influence and power over/with the US admin, and in terms of having leverage and then not having it, it's like watching them blow a 35-point lead.  And they are absolutely blowing it.  

Which thrills me.  But also objectively, it's amazing to watch.  They got everything they could have wanted in Trump getting elected a second time.  And they've now squandered that opportunity.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

Ukraine hit the power plant in Belgorod.

And another big target in the Bryansk region, plus some kind of refinery or oil-related facility in Crimea

https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/5282483Z:RU
 

Karachev Plant Electrodetal AO

Aktsionernoye Obshchestvo "Karachev Plant "Electrodetal" manufactures electrical components. The Company specializes in development and production of rectangular electrical connectors with design, manufacture, installation, and maintenance services of galvanic lines. "Karachev Plant "Electrodetal" serves customers in Russia.

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Kennythetiger said:

By ‘24 Ewers or ‘25 Arch?  

Too.

Soon.

23 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Firmly in FAFO mode

 

Cool.  Board it.  Find the drones on board.  Seize it.  Dare the Russians to fucking do something about it.

Tell them you'll exchange the crew for 500 Ukrainian POWs.  For humanitarian reasons, of course.

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Posted (edited)

«There is intelligence information that the Russians are using tankers to launch and control drones that they launch against European countries. This is further evidence that the Baltic Sea and other seas should be closed to Russian tankers, at least to the shadow fleet,» -

That’s a quote from Zelenskyy, referenced by Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister

Meanwhile, US Navy doing work 

G1-Tj1gbAAAsaMz?format=jpg&name=large

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

«There is intelligence information that the Russians are using tankers to launch and control drones that they launch against European countries. This is further evidence that the Baltic Sea and other seas should be closed to Russian tankers, at least to the shadow fleet,» -

That’s a quote from Zelenskyy, referenced by Ukraine’s First Deputy Foreign Minister

Meanwhile, US Navy doing work 

G1-Tj1gbAAAsaMz?format=jpg&name=large

Without googling, I'm gonna suppose the Swedish navy could end this unpleasantness rather quickly.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/profile/company/5282483Z:RU
Karachev Plant Electrodetal AO

Aktsionernoye Obshchestvo "Karachev Plant "Electrodetal" manufactures electrical components. The Company specializes in development and production of rectangular electrical connectors with design, manufacture, installation, and maintenance services of galvanic lines. "Karachev Plant "Electrodetal" serves customers in Russia.

This was a huge deal apparently.  The Bloomberg profile has a nice little summary, but people have dug around and found out it's one of those companies that makes something that a shitload of companies use (1,500 defense manufacturers doesn't necessarily mean 1,500 separate companies but rather probably used in 1,500 manufacturing locations).

As somebody commented: "Connectors are single-point failures. Even small shortages can halt final assembly and depot repairs, leaving Russian avionics, missile systems, and electronic-warfare kits stuck on assembly or repair lines rather than in the field."

KARACHEVSK PLANT ELECTRODETAL JOINT STOCK COMPANY

Manufacturer of components for 1.5 thousand russian defence industry enterprises. It produces more than 25,000 types of electrical connectors used in the aerospace, speciality, electronics, instrumentation, and other industries. The plant is involved in the production of Chimera FPV drones.

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted

Imagine if we invaded Mexico, and 3.5 years in, we were bribing people in Kenya to send us fresh troops for the front lines.

n Kenya, a suspected organizer of sending Kenyans to the front in Ukraine has been arrested.

On Friday, a Kenyan court authorized the arrest for 10 days (during the investigation) of a man whom police suspect of organizing the transfer of people to Russia and then to the war against Ukraine.

According to the BBC, police suspect Edward Kamau Gituku of leading a criminal organization that traffics Kenyans to Russia. The man was detained the day before during a raid near Nairobi, during which, according to police, 22 people who were preparing to be sent to Russia were rescued.

Police claim that Gituku and his accomplices deceived people by promising them jobs in Russia, but in reality, they were facing forced deployment to the front.

Kenyan authorities began investigating such schemes after Ukrainians last week published a video of the interrogation of former Kenyan runner Evans Kibet, who had been captured. Kibet claims that he was tricked into being sent to the Russian army, into a unit located in the combat zone.

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Posted
Quote

I've been discussing the potential for Russian crude supply shortages and a broader collapse of the Russian oil system since the Ukraine War started...so, is it finally happening?

Ukraine's recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have brought a potential oil crisis within arm’s reach. The Ukrainians are getting smarter, striking critical nexus points and ports; refining capacity is dropping, crude is backing up, and storage capacity is running out. These bottlenecks create pressure in the pipelines and wells, and you can imagine what happens next. Should this extend into the winter, frozen wells could add onto the crisis.

Since much of the energy infrastructure in Russia relies upon Western-tech and labor, that leaves them with few options at resolving these issues in a timely manner (if at all). And then you factor in Ukraine's strikes on the shadow fleet and things begin to get really spicy.

 

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Posted (edited)

This shit has to be giving planners nightmares.  Good that Ukraine is figuring it out.  That soldier in the helicopter doorway was looking right at it when it hit.  
 

G2AEjGKX0AA9z9o?format=jpg&name=medium

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

He's been banging that drum since the start of the war, FWIW.  Will probably be right eventually?

He assumed Ukraine would go after Russia's oil industry and not be restrained. The US didn't let that happen. That appears to have changed now.

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Posted
8 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Imagine if we invaded Mexico, and 3.5 years in, we were bribing people in Kenya to send us fresh troops for the front lines.

n Kenya, a suspected organizer of sending Kenyans to the front in Ukraine has been arrested.

On Friday, a Kenyan court authorized the arrest for 10 days (during the investigation) of a man whom police suspect of organizing the transfer of people to Russia and then to the war against Ukraine.

According to the BBC, police suspect Edward Kamau Gituku of leading a criminal organization that traffics Kenyans to Russia. The man was detained the day before during a raid near Nairobi, during which, according to police, 22 people who were preparing to be sent to Russia were rescued.

Police claim that Gituku and his accomplices deceived people by promising them jobs in Russia, but in reality, they were facing forced deployment to the front.

Kenyan authorities began investigating such schemes after Ukrainians last week published a video of the interrogation of former Kenyan runner Evans Kibet, who had been captured. Kibet claims that he was tricked into being sent to the Russian army, into a unit located in the combat zone.

What the fuck man. This shit is awful. Just complete disregard for human life and decency. 

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Posted

 

Putin has signed a decree on the autumn draft, running from October 1 to December 31.

During this period, the Russian authorities plan to call up 135,000 people for compulsory military service.

Russia promises not to send them to the frontlines.

Jennifer Lawrence Thumbs Up GIF

G2A9ZiYXIAAv2gV?format=jpg&name=900x900

G2A2_n9WoAEglNu?format=jpg&name=small

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Posted

European leaders are starting to tie Ukrainian victory to the security/stability of Europe. I mean, they've been doing this for years, but it seems lately they are a lot more united, probably helped by Ukrainian success against Russian power and O&G infrastructure.

President of the European Council António Costa: This aggression threatens not only Ukraine, it threatens every nation in this assembly [the UN General Assembly].

If we accept Russia's invasion of Ukraine, no country will ever be safe.

There is only one root cause to this war: Russia's refusal to accept Ukraine's right to choose its own destiny. For over three years, this war has claimed innocent lives, destroyed cities, and fooled global insecurity. Our collective security is tied to Ukraine's resilience.

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Posted (edited)

Speaking of war crimes

The Sunday Times has published an investigation that reveals the identities of the 13 commanding officers in charge of Russian troops accused of the Bucha massacres. Their identities have been compiled by independent lawyers and investigators using open-source intelligence, and all 13 have been confirmed by the Ukrainian security services.

  • Colonel General Aleksandr Chayko, commander of the Eastern Military District, led the Russian army at the outset of the invasion and was the most senior officer on the ground in Ukraine.
  • Colonel General Aleksandr Sanchik. Troops under his command allegedly tortured and raped civilians in Bucha.
  • Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov, from the 64th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade, personally had a hand in "gross violations of human rights" including "direct responsibility in killings, rape and torture," according to the US state department. He was one of the bloodiest commanders stationed in Bucha during the occupation.
  • Colonel General Valeri Solodchuk led Russian soldiers who are accused of killings in Bucha. He was promoted by Putin this year.
  • Colonel Yuri Medvedev. Soldiers reporting to him said to have committed more than 40 acts of rape. He was killed by mutinous Russian troops in 2022.
  • Colonel Andrei Kondrov. His troops were accused of robbing civilian houses in Bucha and killing unarmed civilians.
  • Major General Sergei Chubarykin, head of the elite 76th Guards Air Assault Division. Soldiers under his direct command allegedly carried out the majority of the war crimes in Bucha, including executions, torture and widespread looting.
  • Colonel Artem Gorodilov. Under US sanctions for "gross violations of human rights" including extrajudicial killings.
  • Lieutenant Colonel Denis Suvorov personally abducted a Ukrainian officer, tied him to a tree and tortured him before dumping his body in an open pit.
  • Colonel Aleksei Tolmachet. His regiment has been accused of unlawful detention, mock executions, ill treatment and looting.
  • Major General Vladimir Seliverstov was stationed at the command post on Yablunska Street in Bucha, described as the nerve centre for the violence.
  • Major General Vadim Pankov allegedly ordered soldiers to kill 30 local residents and forced civilians to clear up the bodies of dead Russian soldiers.
  • Colonel Sergei Karasev has been accused of assaulting a woman, knocking out her teeth with his gun, and of shooting a civilian in the head.

In Bucha, hundreds of residents were killed and subjected to brutal torture. More than 100 were buried in a mass grave outside the Orthodox Christian church. Some civilians were shot while trying to escape. A children’s summer camp basement was turned into a torture site, where women and children were systematically raped. Russian soldiers cut throats, mutilated bodies, and executed parents in front of their children. More than 500 civilian bodies have been recovered. Dozens more are still missing. The United Nations has described the atrocities as ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.

Investigation: https://t.co/jUmejTMMv7 

Unmasked: 13 Russian officers who led ‘war crime’ troops in Bucha | The Times and The Sunday Times

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
She was born in 1972, so in the wheelhouse of a lot of us.

Yeah man. I stand on record as being pro hot middle aged brunettes. I’ll cede my fap rights to Susanna Hoffs when you pry it from my cold dead hand. The biggest trick the Brisket ever pulled was having yall name check him every time one pops up. Ain’t hating the player, here hating the game.
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Posted

@PTINS OPEC boosting oil production as the Ukrainians impact Russian production.

Exclusive: OPEC+ plans another oil output hike in November, sources say | Reuters

OPEC+ will likely approve another oil production increase of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its meeting next Sunday, as rising oil prices encourage the group to try to further regain market share, three sources familiar with the talks said.

---

Oil prices have fallen from over $80 per barrel at the start of the year but have mostly traded in a narrow range of $60-$70 per barrel since OPEC began production increases in April.

On Friday, prices rose to their highest since August 1, hitting levels above $70 per barrel, supported by Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure which disrupted refining and shipments from one of the world's biggest oil exporters.

---

The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts - 2.2 million bpd - by the end of September. For October, they started removing a second layer, of 1.65 million bpd, with an increase of 137,000 bpd.

OPEC+ also gave the United Arab Emirates approval to boost production by 300,000 bpd between April and September.

The November increase to be discussed on October 5 will amount to at least 137,000 bpd, equal to the October hike, the three sources said. A final decision has not been made, the sources said.

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Posted

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1972632654735438069

Some thoughts regarding the results of the parliamentary elections in Moldova.

According to official results, the pro-European PAS has 50% of the vote; the pro-Russian Patriotic Electoral Bloc has about 24% of the vote.

Russian media comment on the news from Moldova with vileness and despair. The weeks before the elections were full of turbulence.

Russia threw in a colossal amount of resources and money to tilt the vote in favor of pro-Russian parties. It has failed to do so, and some provocations from Russia are very likely after the elections for several reasons:

  • After Romania made its pro-European choice at the elections in May, this is the second strategic defeat for Russia in the region. Considering Russia's diminishing influence in the Caucasus, this is a serious blow.
  • According to informal reports, Sergey Kiriyenko, first deputy head of Russia's presidential administration, is the person currently responsible for pro-Russian projects in former Soviet countries. The elections in Moldova are reportedly his first task after Dmitry Kozak has resigned (he was allegedly in charge previously).

I am certain that the President and government in Moldova are aware of the situation. I hope the EU realizes that Russia will not back down easily and intends to support Moldova's pro-European choice with concrete actions.

The issue of Transnistria once again becomes urgent and crucial. This will become the true test of Moldova's pro-European course. Moldova's EU integration is impossible while the Transnistrian enclave exists in its present state. Russia is openly using it to destabilize Moldova and increase the threat for Ukraine (threaten to capture Odesa and cut Ukraine off from the sea).

Leaving the situation be is directly against Moldova's, Ukraine's and EU's interests.

For Ukraine, the results of the elections mean that our neighboring country will keep up its predictable and friendly policy towards Kyiv. One more source of tension at the Ukrainian border has also been avoided.

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Posted
48 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of war crimes

The Sunday Times has published an investigation that reveals the identities of the 13 commanding officers in charge of Russian troops accused of the Bucha massacres. Their identities have been compiled by independent lawyers and investigators using open-source intelligence, and all 13 have been confirmed by the Ukrainian security services.

  • Colonel General Aleksandr Chayko, commander of the Eastern Military District, led the Russian army at the outset of the invasion and was the most senior officer on the ground in Ukraine.
  • Colonel General Aleksandr Sanchik. Troops under his command allegedly tortured and raped civilians in Bucha.
  • Colonel Azatbek Omurbekov, from the 64th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade, personally had a hand in "gross violations of human rights" including "direct responsibility in killings, rape and torture," according to the US state department. He was one of the bloodiest commanders stationed in Bucha during the occupation.
  • Colonel General Valeri Solodchuk led Russian soldiers who are accused of killings in Bucha. He was promoted by Putin this year.
  • Colonel Yuri Medvedev. Soldiers reporting to him said to have committed more than 40 acts of rape. He was killed by mutinous Russian troops in 2022.
  • Colonel Andrei Kondrov. His troops were accused of robbing civilian houses in Bucha and killing unarmed civilians.
  • Major General Sergei Chubarykin, head of the elite 76th Guards Air Assault Division. Soldiers under his direct command allegedly carried out the majority of the war crimes in Bucha, including executions, torture and widespread looting.
  • Colonel Artem Gorodilov. Under US sanctions for "gross violations of human rights" including extrajudicial killings.
  • Lieutenant Colonel Denis Suvorov personally abducted a Ukrainian officer, tied him to a tree and tortured him before dumping his body in an open pit.
  • Colonel Aleksei Tolmachet. His regiment has been accused of unlawful detention, mock executions, ill treatment and looting.
  • Major General Vladimir Seliverstov was stationed at the command post on Yablunska Street in Bucha, described as the nerve centre for the violence.
  • Major General Vadim Pankov allegedly ordered soldiers to kill 30 local residents and forced civilians to clear up the bodies of dead Russian soldiers.
  • Colonel Sergei Karasev has been accused of assaulting a woman, knocking out her teeth with his gun, and of shooting a civilian in the head.

In Bucha, hundreds of residents were killed and subjected to brutal torture. More than 100 were buried in a mass grave outside the Orthodox Christian church. Some civilians were shot while trying to escape. A children’s summer camp basement was turned into a torture site, where women and children were systematically raped. Russian soldiers cut throats, mutilated bodies, and executed parents in front of their children. More than 500 civilian bodies have been recovered. Dozens more are still missing. The United Nations has described the atrocities as ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.

Investigation: https://t.co/jUmejTMMv7 

Unmasked: 13 Russian officers who led ‘war crime’ troops in Bucha | The Times and The Sunday Times

Those scumbag murderers need to be tracked and eventually liquidated, even after Putin’s war of criminal aggression is over. 
No matter how long it takes. 
That’s the only kind of message those evil motherfuckers understand.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Parliament said:

He's been banging that drum since the start of the war, FWIW.  Will probably be right eventually?

 

He never said it was imminent, just that it would collapse if attacked correctly. Now that the Ukrainians, with American help, are doing that, we are roughly 6 months from severe Russian Oil industry contraction.

 

6 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

image.thumb.png.fb16f79a9e509cd278fe8c260365ddf7.png
 

 

 

 

I assume this is a mis-post and you're trying to post to the Cloakroom... right?

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Posted
3 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

 

He never said it was imminent, just that it would collapse if attacked correctly. Now that the Ukrainians, with American help, are doing that, we are roughly 6 months from severe Russian Oil industry contraction.

 

 

I assume this is an mis-post and you're trying to post to the Cloakroom... right?

It is indeed an mis-post, but I thought it was applicable for the Musk thread.

My bad.

Posted
6 minutes ago, MagicSoccerSpray said:

He never said it was imminent, just that it would collapse if attacked correctly. Now that the Ukrainians, with American help, are doing that, we are roughly 6 months from severe Russian Oil industry contraction.

If we’ve already seen shortages in Moscow, and if they are attacking the pipelines and facilities that feed Moscow as well as Russia’s exports, are we that far out?  At the current pace, they won’t be able to keep up with getting things back online in a timely manner.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, Kennythetiger said:

Ddue, she's Romanian.  Those people are CRAZY.

So....not ruling it out....

Also, man, they HATE them some commies.  Daughter became friends with a Romanian girl at university, got to know her grandmother.  The woman literally spits at the ground every time the communists and the Russians come up.  Hatred is too mild a word.

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