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Posted
36 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Lithuanian Foreign Minister: “The only European city where Putin should end up is The Hague” Kęstutis Budrys said this before the start of the EU Foreign Affairs Council meeting in Luxembourg. Budrys also stressed that he does not consider it possible for Putin’s plane to fly through Lithuanian airspace and advised the dictator to look for alternatives.

Interesting point. Hungary and every country it borders have both signed and ratified the Rome Statute, making them legally obligated to cooperate with the International Criminal Court, which has issued an arrest warrant for Putin. I understand that Hungary has signaled it plans to withdraw from the ICC, but hasn't done so yet. Still, every country that Putin would have to fly over is legally bound by the Statute's obligations. Someone show me a viable flightpath to get to Hungary if all of them had the balls to enforce the warrant.

(Green countries have both signed and ratified the Rome Statute.)
image.png.381877d5ebf86dc432548d366ff7a865.png

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Posted

“The meeting between the US and Ukrainian presidents descended many times into a ‘shouting match,’ with Trump ‘cursing all the time,’ people familiar with the matter said,” according to the report.

Trump, in addition, reportedly insisted that Zelensky surrender the entire Donbas region to Russia, a point pushed by Putin during a White House call the day before. Putin reportedly told Trump on Thursday that he would forfeit “some small areas of the two southern frontline regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia” in exchange for it.

“During Friday’s meeting, Trump appeared to have adopted many of Putin’s talking points verbatim, even when they contradicted his own recent statements about Russia’s weaknesses

Posted
2 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

“During Friday’s meeting, Trump appeared to have adopted many of Putin’s talking points verbatim, even when they contradicted his own recent statements about Russia’s weaknesses

So, old trial lawyer story/tip.

Every trial lawyer worth his salt has had to deal with this sort of person at least once (usually more than once): the idiot judge who simply agrees with the position of the last person who spoke.

When you are arguing a case in front of such a judge, and you realize that what you say doesn't matter, the evidence you present doesn't matter.....only the timing matters....it changes your whole strategy.  You could lay out the most lay-down, open-and-shut case in history, and the judge nods along, says "I think that's right," then turns to the other lawyer and says "any response?"  The other lawyer doesn't have to say more than "well that's not right, that's not what the law says."  No citation to any actual law, or evidence, but the judge nods and says "I think that's right."  You then realize that you're in trouble.....and what you need to do is find a way to say "nuh uh, I win."  And then hope the court runs out of time to hear anything else.

You realize that no matter what the law and facts are, you are dealing with a malleable moron, who has the memory and attention span of a lobotomized, previously brain-damaged gnat.

And we elected that guy president.  There's a strategy for dealing with him.  It's just such a fucking dumb one.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

There's a strategy for dealing with him. 

The strategy is to make Russia and Putin look weak, because Trump despises losing - it’s why in 2025 he still talks about crowd sizes from 2016, still talks about Biden, because he loathes that Biden beat him.

Trump only recently pivoted away from Putin because Putin clowned him after Alaska and because Ukraine is hammering the Russian economy.  Trump talks to Putin, is easily swayed, goes back to pushing Russian talking points because in his mind, ultimately he thinks Russia should be able to win - Trump has never been an underdog in his life.  He does not understand the saying about it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. He just can’t comprehend Russia not being able to steamroll Ukraine.

Trump desperately wants to be seen as a winner and only associate with winners, so he’s angry at Zelenskyy because the whole thing confuses him.

Ukraine has a strategy that Trump actually understands - Trump understands people waiting in line for gas, Russia not being able to sell gas, and Russia can’t stop it.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The strategy is to make Russia and Putin look weak, because Trump despises losing - it’s why in 2025 he still talks about crowd sizes from 2016, still talks about Biden, because he loathes that Biden beat him.

Trump only recently pivoted away from Putin because Putin clowned him after Alaska and because Ukraine is hammering the Russian economy.  Trump talks to Putin, is easily swayed, goes back to pushing Russian talking points because in his mind, ultimately he thinks Russia should be able to win - Trump has never been an underdog in his life.  He does not understand the saying about it’s not the size of the dog in the fight but the size of the fight in the dog. He just can’t comprehend Russia not being able to steamroll Ukraine.

Trump desperately wants to be seen as a winner and only associate with winners, so he’s angry at Zelenskyy because the whole thing confuses him.

Bolded part for key truth.  He has no real understanding of what's actually happening.  His instinct is to side with the "bigger" bully, because that's what HE is, to his core.  And he just doesn't get it when David stands up and slays Goliath.  It doesn't compute.

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Posted
25 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Trump desperately wants to be seen as a winner and only associate with winners, so he’s angry at Zelenskyy because the whole thing confuses him.

Ukraine has a strategy that Trump actually understands - Trump understands people waiting in line for gas, Russia not being able to sell gas, and Russia can’t stop it.

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bolded part for key truth.  He has no real understanding of what's actually happening.  His instinct is to side with the "bigger" bully, because that's what HE is, to his core.  And he just doesn't get it when David stands up and slays Goliath.  It doesn't compute.

I believe that Trump has crossed into the zone formerly occupied by Biden in the last few months of his presidency.

Ukraine needs to keep doing what they have done the past few months.  

5 hours ago, Bevo said:

No, I do not. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Ukraine needs to keep doing what they have done the past few months. 

Curious if you have any thoughts where or when the Russian economy/society really starts to break down if Ukraine maintains or increases their strikes?  If they start to completely finish off say the large tank at fuel depots, take out the processing towers at refineries, etc., it seems like the old saying about bankruptcy - slowly at first, then suddenly.

The Russian people in the largest cities need three things

  • Heat/Electricity
  • Food
  • Fuel to get to work, etc. (there is mass transit)

All three of those rely on oil and gas.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted

Noel Reports:

“Russia has rejected Trump’s proposed plan to freeze the war along current front lines. “Russia’s negotiation stance, to halt troops at existing positions, remains unchanged,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated.“

“Ukraine’s General Staff has confirmed strikes on Russia’s Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery and Orenburg gas processing plant overnight on October 19. The Novokuybyshevsk refinery, processing 4.9M tons of crude annually, suffered hits to its primary refining units. At Orenburg, one of Russia’s largest gas plants, fires broke out following damage to gas treatment systems.”

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Posted
30 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Noel Reports:

“Russia has rejected Trump’s proposed plan to freeze the war along current front lines. “Russia’s negotiation stance, to halt troops at existing positions, remains unchanged,” Kremlin spokesman Peskov stated.“

“Ukraine’s General Staff has confirmed strikes on Russia’s Novokuybyshevsk oil refinery and Orenburg gas processing plant overnight on October 19. The Novokuybyshevsk refinery, processing 4.9M tons of crude annually, suffered hits to its primary refining units. At Orenburg, one of Russia’s largest gas plants, fires broke out following damage to gas treatment systems.”


If true, that’s good news for Ukraine. If Russia also refuses trilateral talks, that might be enough for Trump to reverse course again and provide more support to Ukraine. I still don’t think that means tomahawks but it should mean ATACMS and jets.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Bevo said:

If true, that’s good news for Ukraine. If Russia also refuses trilateral talks, that might be enough for Trump to reverse course again and provide more support to Ukraine. I still don’t think that means tomahawks but it should mean ATACMS and jets.

It probably embarrasses the shit out of him, given how much he’s been selling himself as a deal maker and settler of wars lately.

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Posted
1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

It probably embarrasses the shit out of him, given how much he’s been selling himself as a deal maker and settler of wars lately.

I mean, at least Israel threw that asshole a bone with a ceasefire of (checks notes) one week before they threw his ass under the bus.  

Putin won't even give this stupid motherfucker that. 

idiot-loser.gif

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Posted
2 hours ago, PTINS said:

Does Russia lose the war because of socialites in Moscow and St. Petersburg are upset, or because the conscripts & criminals on the front limes don't have food, fuel or ammunition?  Common sense would say the war effort, but I don't think that is right.

The Russian "soldiers" can loot food, fuel, and ammo.  Maybe not much, and maybe they die in the process of trying. And the generals will try to make sure they at least get ammo, because Russian soldiers surrendering = trip out of a window for leadership. Food and fuel, not so much, and they've already pulled out Soviet-era food.

The Muscovites and St. Petersburg types can buy food on the black market (but not all can), but can't loot electricity, or buy it on the black market.

2 hours ago, PTINS said:

Russia has ~ 25 refineries over a 100,000 bbl/day capacity, all of which have been hit repeatedly, other than the 3 located in far eastern Russia. Extrapolating Ukraine's success the past 2-3 months for another 3-6 months would seem to be enough to deprive Russia of transportation fuel in a meaningful way, which means some things quit moving.

And the panic buying kicks in and the black-market kicks in and reduces the government's ability to move stuff around because the wealthy are buying it up.

2 hours ago, PTINS said:

Google tells me Russian rail is dependent primarily on electricity. Electrified rail moves the food and the oil products. Ukraine has increased strikes on electrical substations, and to a lesser degree power generation plants. It seems the targeting those type facilities has been more discreet and not the wholesale destruction of the power grid, for many reasons. 

That could very well explain why they are hitting power stations/substations in cities that ostensibly have small-ish populations (hundreds of thousands) but I bet if one digs, they act as transport hubs of some kind.

Thanks, some interesting stuff to ponder, would be curious to look at the cities whose power grids were knocked offline, since everybody is focusing on oil & gas.

Posted

All right we need a Surly roll call. Who's  been stalking Sanna Marin and trying to tongue her peephole?  Cmon be honest.

 

https://yle.fi/a/74-20189394

A prosecutor in Helsinki has filed charges of stalking and disturbing domestic peace against a man suspected of following and attempting to contact former Prime Minister Sanna Marin several times last year.

The suspect is a 36-year-old man who was handed an extended restraining order earlier this year by Helsinki District Court in relation to a number of incidents near Marin's Helsinki home last December.

The court heard that the man was seen hanging around the stairwell of Marin's residence before making an attempt to gain access to the apartment on Christmas Eve. This incident lasted about 10 minutes and was captured on video.

"The man had rung the doorbell, knocked, tried to open the mail slot and the door. He had also spoken through the door and kissed the peephole," the court noted in its verdict.

Police detained the man in the buildings' stairwell, saying that he denied committing any crime — claiming instead that he was in the area because he was interested in local architecture.

Marin told the district court that she first saw the suspect in November 2024, when he chased and shouted at her.

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Posted
Quote

"The man had rung the doorbell, knocked, tried to open the mail slot and the door. He had also spoken through the door and kissed the peephole," the court noted in its verdict.

Blazing Saddles GIF by WTEDRadio

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Posted (edited)

New favorite video: (notice how high the flames get before there is any sign of black smoke (incomplete combustion))

Rosneft Novokuybishev Refinery

image.thumb.png.c920d2db7e1a2c6d79563f4149628a29.png

"Circular error probability zero. Impact with high-order detonation. Have a nice day."

 image.png.22d3271ccfc50e1ae608efa21056f93a.png

Very Good article, worth the time: Inside Ukraine's drone campaign to blitz Russia’s energy industry

"You don’t have the cards,” Donald Trump famously told Volodymyr Zelenskiy during their Oval Office showdown in February as he dismissed Ukraine’s capabilities in the war against Russia.

As the two leaders prepare to meet in the White House again, Ukraine’s military remains on the back foot — but it has shown it has at least one potent play to hit the enemy where it hurts: long-range drone strikes on Russia’s crucial energy industry.

Last month, Zelenskiy described the attacks on the oil sector, which funds and fuels Moscow’s war effort, as “the sanctions that work the fastest”.

Ukraine has launched at least 58 attacks on key Russian energy sites since the start of August, sending drones as far as about 2,000 km (1,200 miles) into Russian territory to bomb refineries, pumping stations, storage depots and export terminals, according to data compiled by UK-based non-profit group Open Source Centre (OSC).

Drone strikes at various refineries knocked out around 17% of Russia’s refining capacity in mid-August, or 1.2 million barrels per day, which rose to 21%, or 1.4 million barrels per day, by the end of that month, according to Reuters calculations."

Reuter's is saying 1.4 million BPD by the end of August. I would think it is ~ 30% by now, ~ 2 MM BPD.

Edited by PTINS
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Posted

Poland arrests eight under suspicion of preparing for acts of sabotage

Poland’s Prime Minister Donald Tusk has confirmed that Polish security services detained eight people suspected of preparing to carry out acts of sabotage in various regions on Tuesday.

“ABW (the internal security agency), in cooperation with other services, detained eight people in various parts of the country in recent days, suspected of preparing acts of sabotage,” the Polish leader wrote on X/Twitter.

“Further operational activities are continuing," he added.

On X, the minister responsible for special services, Tomasz Siemoniak, said, “The matters ... concern reconnaissance of military facilities and critical infrastructure elements, the preparation of means to carry out acts of sabotage, and the direct execution of attacks.”

Officials have reported being attacked with the use of arson and cyberattacks as part of a “hybrid war” waged by Russia to affect nations supporting Ukraine. Russia has denied the accusations.

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Posted
20 hours ago, PTINS said:

I believe that Trump has crossed into the zone formerly occupied by Biden in the last few months of his presidency.

I said years ago that Trump was/is unhinged and erratic.

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Posted
14 hours ago, dimyh said:

All right we need a Surly roll call. Who's  been stalking Sanna Marin and trying to tongue her peephole?  Cmon be honest.

 

https://yle.fi/a/74-20189394

A prosecutor in Helsinki has filed charges of stalking and disturbing domestic peace against a man suspected of following and attempting to contact former Prime Minister Sanna Marin several times last year.

The suspect is a 36-year-old man who was handed an extended restraining order earlier this year by Helsinki District Court in relation to a number of incidents near Marin's Helsinki home last December.

The court heard that the man was seen hanging around the stairwell of Marin's residence before making an attempt to gain access to the apartment on Christmas Eve. This incident lasted about 10 minutes and was captured on video.

"The man had rung the doorbell, knocked, tried to open the mail slot and the door. He had also spoken through the door and kissed the peephole," the court noted in its verdict.

Police detained the man in the buildings' stairwell, saying that he denied committing any crime — claiming instead that he was in the area because he was interested in local architecture.

Marin told the district court that she first saw the suspect in November 2024, when he chased and shouted at her.

We all know it was Brisket.

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Posted
14 hours ago, dimyh said:

All right we need a Surly roll call. Who's  been stalking Sanna Marin and trying to tongue her peephole?  Cmon be honest.

IMG_2647.gif.61b09fed9974bb686ae1e7a6c5b25ff9.gif

Oh, wait!! You said “peephole”? Nah. 

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Posted
37 minutes ago, ABSR said:

We all know it was Brisket.

I mean...game respek game.  But the story says the suspect was 36.  Dude, I ain't been 36 in....a long time.

Besides, my stalking is much smoother.  I casually walked by the Parliament House in Helsinki a while back, and gave it a nod and a 

friends-joey.gif

Now, we wait for her to figure out where here heart truly lies.

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Posted
27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I mean...game respek game.  But the story says the suspect was 36.  Dude, I ain't been 36 in....a long time.

Besides, my stalking is much smoother.  I casually walked by the Parliament House in Helsinki a while back, and gave it a nod and a 

friends-joey.gif

Now, we wait for her to figure out where here heart truly lies.

I see you didn't rule out kissing a peephole or two though.  

Posted
27 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Some Art of the Deal.

G3x5DUhWsAA5Jwu?format=jpg&name=large

G3x5DUtXMAAA4-K?format=jpg&name=large

If you think that fucking guy is not going to disregard what Rubio says so he can go suck off Putin in his next favorite authoritarian buddy's home town, you guys are fooling yourselves.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.  If he doesn't go, it'll definitely get blamed on Rubio and not the Russians though.

Just now, Brisketexan said:

A smart man doesn't limits his options.

yoda-star-wars.gif

Posted
3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Interesting.

 

 

I see this as potentially directed at Donald Trump. It’s a way of saying “who needs your tomahawks?” - we have our own icbms -  and also saying that we are kicking Russia’s ass in this war and all of your stupid comments about Russia destroying us are obviously false.   We are winners. We are strong.  Russia keeps dunking on you, Trump, and will never win.

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Posted

I've been re-watching the Brit tv series The Sandbaggers and I've gotta think a lot of you in this thread would immensely enjoy it, despite its age (1978-80). Its focus is the Cold War, the "special relationship," and the internal battles to get things done within the context of covert spy activities. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Sandbaggers Truly one of the best spy genre productions of all time, tv or film. It has a very high level of authenticity. I'm pretty sure all the episodes are on youtube although it's also on Britbox if you have that. 

 

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