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2019 Houston Astros Thread


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I'll tell you what, though. This game was important. The way we won ugly with a bunch of AAA players... this team has it.  I don't really remember a game like this last year that made me think we'd go all the way. In 2017, there was that game in Minnesota, when we came back down by what, 8? Scored 11 runs in the 8th inning.

This is like that one, the way we just made a win happen no matter what seemed to go wrong in the game.

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14 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I'll tell you what, though. This game was important. The way we won ugly with a bunch of AAA players... this team has it.  I don't really remember a game like this last year that made me think we'd go all the way. In 2017, there was that game in Minnesota, when we came back down by what, 8? Scored 11 runs in the 8th inning.

This is like that one, the way we just made a win happen no matter what seemed to go wrong in the game.

The 2017 one was down 6. There was this one from September 2018.

 

 

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About 60 games into the season some teams are obviously already sellers and some are very close to that point. Some players I've read that could be on the move that would make sense for Houston are

1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu

3B/DH: Anthony Rendon, Pablo Sandoval

LHR: Brad Hand, Will Smith, Sean Doolittle, Francisco Liriano (reunion?), Tony Watson

RHP: Marcus Stroman, Tanner Roark

LHP: Madison Bumgarner 

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1 hour ago, rvm96 said:

The 2017 one was down 6. There was this one from September 2018.

 

 

It was the 2017 game, with the 11-run 8th, that I was thinking of.

That 2018 game felt like a fluke. 2017's was something special.

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Josh Rojas batted 3 times in the 7th inning for the Express tonight. Don’t see that too often. 
Lol at that box score. 24/51 in the game with 9 walks. Looks like a football game broke out with that final score.
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5 hours ago, rvm96 said:

About 60 games into the season some teams are obviously already sellers and some are very close to that point. Some players I've read that could be on the move that would make sense for Houston are

1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu

3B/DH: Anthony Rendon, Pablo Sandoval

LHR: Brad Hand, Will Smith, Sean Doolittle, Francisco Liriano (reunion?), Tony Watson

RHP: Marcus Stroman, Tanner Roark

LHP: Madison Bumgarner 

I don't think the Indians are going to blow it up. They are 2 games back in the wild card standings despite their best player missing the first month of the season, plus they have a lot of games against DET, KC, CHW coming up. I don't think Washington is either, unless the bottom falls out quickly (but they've won 7 of the last 10). 

 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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Hopefully straw is the prospect we keep

fisher / kemp / white / beer / toro / Dawson / reed /  young Arms

take your pick from that bunch 

 

per lunhow - teams have been asking about straw since early last season 

Edited by tx 3 putt
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5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Hopefully straw is the prospect we keep

fisher / kemp / white / beer / toro / Dawson / reed /  young Arms

take your pick from that bunch 

 

per lunhow - teams have been asking about straw since early last season 

Those things are not equal. Kemp and White aren’t prospects. Reed has no value. Beer is probably too valuable unless it’s a blockbuster deal. Fisher is a possibility, but even though there is a logjam in the outfield now, the top 4 guys are all free agents after next season-will be interesting to see who they keep and who they clear out.

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i'm a little torn on straw.

the selfish me thinks he would be great sitting on the bench for us the entire game, then coming in late as a pinch-runner, stealing 1-2 bases, and scoring an important run.  typically a pinch-runner doesn't have a bunch of trade value.  but other teams obviously would use him differently, because he has position flexibility and other teams (like sf) have gaping holes and need mlb ready players (and prospects).

so the charitable me thinks his value might mean more to other teams, and he could be a key piece in a deal.

if everyone was healthy he'd be in aaa.  he's a luxury for us, in our embarrassment of riches.

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7 hours ago, rvm96 said:

About 60 games into the season some teams are obviously already sellers and some are very close to that point. Some players I've read that could be on the move that would make sense for Houston are

1B: Edwin Encarnacion, Carlos Santana, Jose Abreu

3B/DH: Anthony Rendon, Pablo Sandoval

LHR: Brad Hand, Will Smith, Sean Doolittle, Francisco Liriano (reunion?), Tony Watson

RHP: Marcus Stroman, Tanner Roark

LHP: Madison Bumgarner 

is belt avail?  

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1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

Kemp is showing he’s ready to play / get at bats every day 

Agree with that, but he’s a known commodity-he’s probably a platoon outfielder, little to no power, a mediocre glove. He’s 27 years old. That has value, sure, but really only to a contender-no one is trading for that unless he’s a throw in. If you’re dumping a star to rebuild, Tony Kemp is not a future building block.

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5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

Tucker /Alvarez / beer , I’m fine letting one go for a player to put us over the top and inst a half season rental.

i think we resign springer and Jake 

I’d rather keep Tucker and Alvarez and let Springer walk, unless he’s willing to sign for a big discount. Outfielders on the wrong side of 30 who play with his reckless abandon do not age well.

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35 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

If Verlander is a pony, Bumgarner is just this side of becoming glue.

Haha. Maybe. But he'll turn 30 on 8/1, so he's younger than Verlander was when we acquired him. And keep in mind that JV appeared to be in decline in mid-2017. 

Bumgarner hasn't been dominant this year, but he's been solid for a bad team (3.87 FIP in 80 IP). His K% and BB% are in line with his career norms. 

He's a half-season guy, so I wouldn't give any of Tucker/Alvarez/Whitley in a deal for him. But man, I like the idea of a JV/Bumgarner/Cole playoff rotation. 

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Agreed if Straw proves he can play with consistency. If not, you keep Springer.

2021. Tucker, Straw and possibly let Springer walk. Finding a quality FA outfielder is pretty easy.  2021 is going to be a completely different look with Brantley, Reddick, Springer, and Marinsnick all FAs.

Edited by mycox
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9 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I don’t disagree. I also don’t see how that makes me wrong. He’s a proven elite talent...who’ll be 32 in 2021. If he wants a big payday, it needs to be elsewhere. 

Yeah, the Springer situation will be interesting to watch. I imagine Lunhow et al tried to extend him this spring when seemingly everyone was getting extensions, but obviously they still aren't on the same page. 

But yeah - the entire OF (Springer, Brantley, Reddick and I think Marisnick) are all FAs after next year. This figures to weigh into the calculus of who to trade, keep, extend, etc. 

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jake is the one i would "worry" about.  because much like i referenced with straw, he can do more with another team that has more room for him.

of course, with our injuries, we have plenty of room for him.

for those who know better than me, who is our 3rd best position prospect anywhere in the system (after yordan/tucker)?  or at least who are the candidates for 3-4-5th?  outside of guys like beer, i don't have much knowledge on the hitting side, but feel like i know a lot of pitching names.

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5 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

jake is the one i would "worry" about.  because much like i referenced with straw, he can do more with another team that has more room for him.

of course, with our injuries, we have plenty of room for him.

for those who know better than me, who is our 3rd best position prospect anywhere in the system (after yordan/tucker)?  or at least who are the candidates for 3-4-5th?  outside of guys like beer, i don't have much knowledge on the hitting side, but feel like i know a lot of pitching names.

Here is the link to Fangrapphs' Astros list from preseason:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-houston-astros/

Spoiler
Rk Name Age Highest Level Position ETA FV
1 Forrest Whitley 21.5 AA RHP 2019 65
2 Kyle Tucker 22.2 MLB RF 2019 60
3 Corbin Martin 23.2 AA RHP 2019 50
4 J.B. Bukauskas 22.4 AA RHP 2019 50
5 Joshua James 26.0 MLB RHP 2019 50
6 Cionel Perez 22.9 MLB LHP 2019 50
7 Yordan Alvarez 21.7 AAA DH 2020 50
8 Freudis Nova 19.2 R SS 2022 45
9 Bryan Abreu 21.9 A RHP 2020 45
10 Brandon Bielak 22.9 AA RHP 2020 45
11 Luis Santana 19.6 R 2B 2022 40+
12 Rogelio Armenteros 24.7 AAA RHP 2019 40+
13 Jairo Solis 19.2 A RHP 2022 40+
14 Tyler Ivey 22.8 A+ RHP 2020 40+
15 Ronnie Dawson 23.8 AA CF 2020 40+
16 Manny Ramirez 19.3 A- RHP 2023 40
17 Myles Straw 24.4 MLB CF 2019 40
18 Seth Beer 22.5 A+ DH 2021 40
19 Abraham Toro-Hernandez 22.2 AA 3B 2021 40
20 Peter Solomon 22.6 A+ RHP 2020 40
21 Brandon Bailey 24.4 AA RHP 2019 40
22 Framber Valdez 25.3 MLB LHP 2019 40
23 Alex McKenna 21.5 A CF 2022 40
24 Jonathan Arauz 20.6 A+ 2B 2021 40
25 Garrett Stubbs 25.8 AAA C 2019 40

 

Edited by Hank Chinaski
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I think Fisher has more value than Straw. He's only a year older and was drafted a year earlier. Straw has the slight advantage in speed and average. Fisher has considerably more pop. I don't know how they stack up defensively.  Either would be good replacements for Jake if he leaves for a nice payday. Just trade the one who gets the deal done. Tucker/Alvarez are the future everyday outfielders. 

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16 minutes ago, TonyTexas said:

I think Fisher has more value than Straw. He's only a year older and was drafted a year earlier. Straw has the slight advantage in speed and average. Fisher has considerably more pop. I don't know how they stack up defensively.  Either would be good replacements for Jake if he leaves for a nice payday. Just trade the one who gets the deal done. Tucker/Alvarez are the future everyday outfielders. 

The wild card is if Straw can capably play 2B/SS. If he is passable in a middle infield position, I'd rather have him than Fisher. I agree about Fisher's power, but Straw could be a really valuable utility player if he's capable of moving between CF and MI. 

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1 minute ago, Hank Chinaski said:

The wild card is if Straw can capably play 2B/SS. If he is passable in a middle infield position, I'd rather have him than Fisher. I agree about Fisher's power, but Straw could be a really valuable utility player if he's capable of moving between CF and MI. 

Perhaps but any infield he plays will be very limited or under extenuating circumstances. Kemp had much more infield experience and had played a whopping 43 innings of 2nd base in his Astro career prior to this emergency stretch. He's basically a slightly faster, RH Tony Kemp.

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Straw is much, much faster than Kemp, not slightly faster.  Last year, Kemp ran 27.6 ft/s and 4.2s HP to 1B despite being a LHH. 

In 2018, Fisher was 29.4.  In 2019, Straw is 29.5 and Marisnick 29.3.

 

2018:   https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2018&position=&team=HOU&min=10

2019:   https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/sprint_speed_leaderboard?year=2019&position=&team=HOU&min=10

 

 

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1 hour ago, formermav43 said:

I don’t disagree. I also don’t see how that makes me wrong. He’s a proven elite talent...who’ll be 32 in 2021. If he wants a big payday, it needs to be elsewhere. 

The guy is in the MVP conversation, having a career year, and he's a fan favorite, and you want to ship him out because of how old he'll be in 2+ years?

We can afford to pay three big bats (Altuve, Springer, and Bregs).  And we can save money by letting Correa go and letting go of semi-pricey guys like Reddick.  

But guys who can hit 40 bombs and sell a gazillion jerseys don't grow on trees.  You don't just assume Yordan Alvarez is the next George Springer and hope you're right to save a few bucks.

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17 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

The guy is in the MVP conversation, having a career year, and he's a fan favorite, and you want to ship him out because of how old he'll be in 2+ years?

We can afford to pay three big bats (Altuve, Springer, and Bregs).  And we can save money by letting Correa go and letting go of semi-pricey guys like Reddick.  

But guys who can hit 40 bombs and sell a gazillion jerseys don't grow on trees.  You don't just assume Yordan Alvarez is the next George Springer and hope you're right to save a few bucks.

I don’t want to “ship him out”-not sure where you got that idea. But I don’t think they should resign him unless he takes below market value precisely because of how old he’ll be-you act like that’s a minor consideration. It’s not.

I don’t have any illusions that Alvarez will replace Springer. If nothing else, he’s inferior defensively. But you also don’t have to just “assume” or “hope” Alvarez and/or Tucker can replace his bat-there’s an entire 2020 to get data points in to see, if they choose to do so.

You seem to be stuck on the 2019 team. I’m talking about 2021 forward. And I’d bet today  that some combination of Alvarez, Tucker, Fisher, Straw, Marisnick (if they choose to resign him), whoever they keep out of this crowded outfield group, and/or a savvy FA signing like they’ve done in the past with Reddick or Brantley can replace his production at a lower cost, yeah-not just to “save a few bucks” but to actually improve the team, since you can spend that money other places. I could be wrong. Fortunately, that decision doesn’t have to be made today and it will be made by people a lot smarter than me. But I’m not sure why you act like it’s so unreasonable.

Edited by formermav43
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3 minutes ago, formermav43 said:

I don’t want to “ship him out”-not sure where you got that idea. But I don’t think they should resign him unless he takes below market value precisely because of how old he’ll be-you act like that’s a minor consideration. It’s not.

I don’t have any illusions that Alvarez will replace Springer. If nothing else, he’s inferior defensively. But you also don’t have to just “assume” or “hope” Alvarez and/or Tucker can replace his bat-there’s an entire 2020 to get data points in to see, if they choose to do so.

You seen to be stuck on the 2019 team. I’m talking about 2021 forward. And I’d bet today  that some combination of Alvarez, Tucker, Fisher, Straw, Marisnick (if they choose to resign him), whoever they keep out of this crowded outfield group, and/or a savvy FA signing like they’ve done in the past with Reddick or Brantley can replace his production at a lower cost, yeah-not just to “save a few bucks” but to actually improve the team, since you can spend that money other places. I could be wrong. Fortunately, that decision doesn’t have to be made today and it will be made by people a lot smarter than me. But I’m not sure why you act like it’s so unreasonable.

Agree with this. I LOVE Springer, but you can't overpay for a guy who will be 31 and who had trouble staying healthy in his 20s (he's missed at least 20+ games in all his MLB seasons but one).

I'm not sure how much money he'll command on the market, but the last couple of offseasons tell us that most teams will be reluctant to give him a lot of years...which is why I am still somewhat optimistic that we can extend him at a reasonable price. 

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5 hours ago, Hank Chinaski said:

I don't think the Indians are going to blow it up. They are 2 games back in the wild card standings despite their best player missing the first month of the season, plus they have a lot of games against DET, KC, CHW coming up. I don't think Washington is either, unless the bottom falls out quickly (but they've won 7 of the last 10). 

 

Cleveland is totally selling. Carrasco is probably done for the year with a rare blood disorder. Kluber it out with a fracture in his forearm. Clevinger is expected back soon, but his injury was pretty serious. They already have an OF that is trash, on top of Ramirez hitting like White. With payroll issues on the way, trading Hand and Bauer makes complete sense for them.

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