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Things seem to be going quite well for Joe Biden


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I used to think he was the best chance to win. There is no way this man can win. He used quips and facial expressions to destroy Paul Ryan. Like it or not, trump has better quips and facial expressions. Definitely harder hitting ones. 

Now he is just a characterization of a completely lost old man. He had zero touch with reality. Anyone who mocked trump about wishing for America to be an 80’s utopia, meet joe Biden. The exact same guy. The biggest difference is that trump supporters believe trump purposefully says what he says. Nobody believes joe has control over his own mouth. Kinda funny haha. 

Edited by Jhawk
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11 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Joe’s voters will take the life raft over to Pete B.  Just my opinion, but I could see the olds giving a pass on the gay gentleman.  Being that’s he’s white, served in the army, and caters to rich folk.  
 

The thing is Joe’s supporters are mostly black and/or old.  If Joe disappeared from the race his black support would likely be split between Warren and Sanders and his old white support would be split between Warren and Pete. 

It’s almost like Pete deliberately crafted his campaign not to cut into Biden’s black support. 

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39 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Joe’s voters will take the life raft over to Pete B.  Just my opinion, but I could see the olds giving a pass on the gay gentleman.  Being that’s he’s white, served in the army, and caters to rich folk.

Joe is doing extremely well among non-whites and people without a college education. Not exactly Pete's wheelhouse.

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One thing that's hard for Warren stans like Hugo to understand is that Buttigieg is appealing to a lot of Liz voters. Twitter is not real life. 

Warren has done a phenomenal job so far of catering to progressives and moderates. Will be interesting to see if she can hold on to both. 

 

 

 

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57 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The thing is Joe’s supporters are mostly black and/or old.  If Joe disappeared from the race his black support would likely be split between Warren and Sanders and his old white support would be split between Warren and Pete. 

It’s almost like Pete deliberately crafted his campaign not to cut into Biden’s black support. 

 

34 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Joe is doing extremely well among non-whites and people without a college education. Not exactly Pete's wheelhouse.

Agree - but there’s gonna be an avalanche of scared money people that find Mayor B is the only palatable option.  I think they will make up for the missing black vote.  Trump vs Mayor will keep a lot of fiscal conservatives at home.  Tired of Trump’s shit but are not ready for ‘radical commie’ left winger.  As in someone far left will rally the Trump vote - Pete keeping those people at home is a net win.  

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6 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

 

Agree - but there’s gonna be an avalanche of scared money people that find Mayor B is the only palatable option.  I think they will make up for the missing black vote.  Trump vs Mayor will keep a lot of fiscal conservatives at home.  Tired of Trump’s shit but are not ready for ‘radical commie’ left winger.  As in someone far left will rally the Trump vote - Pete keeping those people at home is a net win.  

What does this mean? 

Someone polling in the low single digits (or 0%) with POC in the Democratic Primary isn't going to win on the backs of white progressive liberals or conservadems.  He's going to get wiped out in SC, NV and just about every Southern primary or states that don't look like Iowa and New Hamsphire (i.e., a lot of them). 

In the GE, the missing black vote = electoral college loss.  

Edited by Js1
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42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

What does this mean? 

Someone polling in the low single digits (or 0%) with POC in the Democratic Primary isn't going to win on the backs of white progressive liberals or conservadems.  He's going to get wiped out in SC, NV and just about every Southern primary or states that don't look like Iowa and New Hamsphire (i.e., a lot of them). 

In the GE, the missing black vote = electoral college loss.  

I don’t mean he will get completely shut out of the black vote - the D’s will rally at least some of the black vote for him.  His VP choice will be big too.  Choose wisely my gay grasshopper...

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18 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

I don’t mean he will get completely shut out of the black vote - the D’s will rally at least some of the black vote for him.  His VP choice will be big too.  Choose wisely my gay grasshopper...

Unless Pete decides to do some hard time for a crime he didn’t commit, he’s going to need to thread some mythical needle to win the nomination.  It’s not impossible but his role in this nomination process seems to be to fight off the progressives by falsely claiming to be one.

I have no idea if he could beat Trump but a case could be made that a Pete nomination makes it easier to suppress the black vote. 

 

Current black voter support by age (per Kornaki):

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Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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4 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

I think this election might be a little different for Democrats. I could see people who would normally not vote for [Insert Democratic Nominee] actually vote for them against Donald Trump. 

Yeah, that’s a good argument for Pete beating Trump.  2020 is more about firing Trump than hiring his replacement.

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Biden has done nothing but embarrass himself and condescend to anyone willing to challenged him at the few public appearances he has made in this campaign...and yet polling basically hasn't changed over the past three months.  

We are underselling just how great we all felt under Obama and then you have the double whammy of time glossing things over and making the seem even rosier along with a contrast to Trump and, man, Obama sure sounds awesome again..and wait, look, is that Obama's VP? Okay, let's roll.

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1 hour ago, Fozzz said:

Biden has done nothing but embarrass himself and condescend to anyone willing to challenged him at the few public appearances he has made in this campaign...and yet polling basically hasn't changed over the past three months.  

Unintended consequence of having, checks notes..., seventeen candidates running for president.(not including Bloomberg)  PLUS,  the active inquiry into impeachment of Trump.  PLUS the complete granularization of "news" sources.

 

 

Edited by Incredulity
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59 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Unintended consequence of having, checks notes..., seventeen candidates running for president.(not including Bloomberg)  PLUS,  the active inquiry into impeachment of Trump.  PLUS the complete granularization of "news" sources.

 

 

I think the reason the field is so big is because how weak the presumptive establishment candidate (Biden) is, and is also why every lib billionaire is looking to throw their hat in the ring.  Similar dynamic with the Republican field in 2016 with the weakness of Jeb! 

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden has two plagiarism scandals on his record no one talks about.  One of them forced him out of a presidential race.  

Meanwhile Elizebeth Warren gets crucified for erroneously claiming too much NA heritage and being a registered Republican decades before she ever ran for a political office. 

Biden is getting a similar benefit that Trump got in 2015/early 2016, which is that a lot of the truly damaging shit in his past is treated by the media as old news and not worth reporting on.  Even with well-intentioned editors and reporters, there's an assumption baked in that shit that they and all their friends have known about is already generally known by the American people too.

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1 minute ago, wildcat09 said:

Biden is getting a similar benefit that Trump got in 2015/early 2016, which is that a lot of the truly damaging shit in his past is treated by the media as old news and not worth reporting on.  Even with well-intentioned editors and reporters, there's an assumption baked in that shit that they and all their friends have known about is already generally known by the American people too.

Sounds like willful negligence

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  • immamac changed the title to Things seem to be going quite well for Joe Biden


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