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2020 Democratic Nominee


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24 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

We make fun of Q-Anon boomers, but at least they are mad at actual powerful figures in the world and not random anonymous Internet assholes.

I think they might be more worthy of respect than people whose entire political identity is wrapped up in hurt feelings about posters.

I've been someone you've previously gone after with this rhetoric, so I can only assume I'm the type of person you have in mind with this statement.

To be clear, Joe Biden is not my first, second, third, fourth... hell, tenth choice to be President.  I agree with you on probably 90%+ of the issues, but in a contest between Joe and Bernie, I fear that Bernie will scare away voters.  Again, I like what Bernie stands for.  I respect his consistent record.  In a vacuum, I think he'd make a fine President. I just don't think the country will show up for him.  And I recognize that I come from a place of privilege where I can afford for my number one voting criteria to be "get Trump the hell out of here" rather than "how will I feed my family tonight."  I personally believe that steering the country away from Trump needs to be the first step, and then we can go to work on the other issues.  If I'm wrong, well then fuck me, but this is what I believe. 

That being said, this type of bullshit that you spew makes me feel better about my decision.  To be clear, I am not basing my vote even 1% on what some lunatic on the internet thinks, but it sure prevents me from spending too much time worrying that I made the wrong call (which was Warren, by the way.).

Equating someone who has a difference of opinion with Q-Anon?  Man, FUCK that.  Your team has had five years to figure out how to expand your base, and you dumbasses can't figure out that people don't like to be insulted.  Elections are literally goddamn popularity contests and it doesn't matter how good your ideas are (and most of them are VERY good!) if you can't get people to listen to them. 

 

Edited by Chuckie Finster
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2 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

The vote in South Carolina notwithstanding, I suppose.

This is just more of the weird stuff I'm talking about. People are constantly citing how Biden strength in the Midwest is what matters. BATTLEGROUNDS!

Then the fact he won the South Carolina primary in a landslide is mentioned as some sort of proof of turnout abilities. Do you think Biden puts South Carolina into play in the general election? That would matter but I doubt you think that.

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21 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

You must be chipper at the thought of the dems nominating someone who helped make prescription drugs so expensive in this country that people regularly die because they can't afford to buy basic drugs like insulin.  

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SOUTH CAROLINA – Joe Biden is now the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party and the “man to beat,” following a primary win in South Carolina that only took him a third of a century to achieve.

After losing his first nomination contest in 1988 to Michael Dukakis, and his second twenty years later to Barack Obama, Biden set fire to the Democratic party on Saturday by finally winning the elusive state after only three attempts, played out over the course of an entire generation.

 

 

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/03/man-who-took-30-years-to-win-one-state-considered-electable/

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1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

I've been someone you've previously gone after with this rhetoric, so I can only assume I'm the type of person you have in mind with this statement.

To be clear, Joe Biden is not my first, second, third, fourth... hell, tenth choice to be President.  I agree with you on probably 90%+ of the issues, but in a contest between Joe and Bernie, I fear that Bernie will scare away voters.  Again, I like what Bernie stands for.  I respect his consistent record.  In a vacuum, I think he'd make a fine President. I just don't think the country will show up for him.  And I recognize that I come from a place of privilege where I can afford for my number one voting criteria to be "get Trump the hell out of here" rather than "how will I feed my family tonight."  I personally believe that steering the country away from Trump needs to be the first step, and then we can go to work on the other issues.  If I'm wrong, well then fuck me, but this is what I believe. 

That being said, this type of bullshit that you spew makes me feel better about my decision.  To be clear, I am not basing my vote even 1% on what some lunatic on the internet thinks, but it sure prevents me from spending too much time worrying that I made the wrong call.

Equating someone who has a difference of opinion with Q-Anon?  Man, FUCK that.  Your team has had five years to figure out how to expand your base, and you dumbasses can't figure out that people don't like to be insulted.  Elections are literally goddamn popularity contests and it doesn't matter how good your ideas are (and most of them are VERY good!) if you can't get people to listen to them. 

 

get out of here with your well-reasoned personal decision making! just admit you're mad the bros are mean to you!

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2 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Where is the evidence of Biden's ability to get out the vote in a general election? I know you realize that 2008 was Obama and not Biden.

You are approaching this like an old school NFL coach making a decision after a touchdown. Bernie Sanders is going for two and Joe Biden is kicking the extra point. You are comparing the negatives of one to the positives of the other and not taking the opposite sides into account. I fully admit that Sanders is a risky move in some ways. Biden is also risky and that is being completely ignored by many people.

South Carolina strongly indicates that that Biden can turn out some votes.  Three days ago, 538,000 people voted in the Democratic primary in South Carolina of which Biden got 262,000 (i.e., 49%).  Four years ago, only 373,000 voted (Clinton won 74% of them).  

The South Carolina primary looks a whole lot more like 2008, in which 532,000 people voted (Obama won 55%).

That, by the way, is in pretty serious contrast to Iowa and New Hampshire.

Who can get out the vote in a general election?  The proof of the pudding will be in the eating, I suppose.  But the fact is that with Biden, you're going to have Obama out there hustling his ass off.  And South Carolina sure indicates that it will be effective.

Is there any such evidence for Sanders?

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1 hour ago, JimmyJames said:

Have you heard trump speak lately? He’s not murdering anyone on the debate stage. I’ll be surprised if he even shows up. Won’t matter anyway. 

Trumps brain is only slightly less mushy than Joe’s, but he owns it a lot better than Biden does. His answers in the debates about the nuclear triad or Aleppo showed that he clearly had no clue what the fuck he was talking about, but he owned it and gave a rambling bullshit answer. Pete would have been the best at debating Trump because he thinks quickly and doesn’t get flustered. He picked exactly the right spots to poke Amy in that Nevada debate and had her completely rattled. 

The optimist in me hopes Joe will be with it enough to point out all of Trumps bullshit in a loud and aggressive manner that will resonate with the working class white men that bought into Trumps lies last time around. “Where are all those manufacturing jobs you promised? Where is the coal revival? Where is all the money from Mexico to pay for your wall that fell over? You diverted some of it from a daycare center and housing repairs that badly needed it on military bases! Where are your tax returns that were under audit 4 years ago so we can all see what a deceitful conman you are?”

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3 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

 

SOUTH CAROLINA – Joe Biden is now the presumptive nominee for the Democratic Party and the “man to beat,” following a primary win in South Carolina that only took him a third of a century to achieve.

After losing his first nomination contest in 1988 to Michael Dukakis, and his second twenty years later to Barack Obama, Biden set fire to the Democratic party on Saturday by finally winning the elusive state after only three attempts, played out over the course of an entire generation.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2020/03/man-who-took-30-years-to-win-one-state-considered-electable/

Is this a press release from the Biden campaign?

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Where is the evidence of Sanders' supposed ability to expand the electorate and get out the vote?  Because we really haven't seen it in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina.  And we really didn't see it in his 2016 run, either.  And there's no empirical evidence to indicate that non-voters or infrequent voters are more liberal than regular voters.  Actually, the evidence indicates the opposite.

Your problem in Texas--and in those 40 House districts that we flipped in 2018--is that the liberal vote isn't very big.  It's not enough to win in Texas, and it's not enough to win in those districts.  You need a coalition of liberals and moderates (and, gasp--even a few conservatives) to win.  And Sanders is a stick of dynamite that will blow up that coalition.

You may get your liberal vote--though there's no indication that it'll be much higher than normal--but that's a path toward minority status in the Texas Legislature and in the U.S. House of Representatives.

 

 

Texas isn't in play this cycle unless something happens to make this a very lopsided election. Most of those house districts you're talking about voted for Hillary Clinton, some by large margins. She lost anyway. And those districts still elected Republicans to the house despite a moderate courting centrists and Republicans on the ballot.

 

Dems have tried the old guard moderate approach vs unpopular Republicans. It failed in 2004 and it failed in 2016. It's true that we don't know what Bernie brings to the table as far as youth and minority turnout. Only a tiny fraction of the primaries have been contested and even that's totally apples vs oranges when compared to a general election. You know what we do know, though? We know whay happens when lifeless moderates that don't generate enthusiasm from anyone seek the presidency. They lose.

 

The burden of proof is on the one arguing that it's the right way to go, not the one arguing it's time for something different when it's clearly a failed approach.

 

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6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

This is just more of the weird stuff I'm talking about. People are constantly citing how Biden strength in the Midwest is what matters. BATTLEGROUNDS!

Then the fact he won the South Carolina primary in a landslide is mentioned as some sort of proof of turnout abilities. Do you think Biden puts South Carolina into play in the general election? That would matter but I doubt you think that.

That wasn't the question.  Nobody asked whether Joe Biden (or any other Democrat) can put South Carolina in play (though I do think we have a shot--long though it may be--at the Senate seat there). 

The question was whether there is evidence that Joe Biden can get out the vote.  And there is.

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20 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

Is hurt feelings about Internet posters a feature of liberalism? That's news to me.

Sorry for just getting back to you. Just ran over to Pumpkin Park to vote for Bernie for the 2nd consecutive primary. 

I don't give a shit what you or Bernie reply trolls think on Twitter. Shitposting from nobodies doesn't bother me. But I do have an issue with the attacks and behavior from actual progressive journalists/media/thought leaders and the majority of Bernie's campaign staff, since all of these people become more powerful and influential if Sanders becomes POTUS. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

You must be chipper at the thought of the dems nominating someone who helped make prescription drugs so expensive in this country that people regularly die because they can't afford to buy basic drugs like insulin.  

It sucks, but that's what's going to happen.

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6 minutes ago, Fozzz said:

You must be chipper at the thought of the dems nominating someone who helped make prescription drugs so expensive in this country that people regularly die because they can't afford to buy basic drugs like insulin.  

Shoot this directly into my veins.

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6 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

South Carolina strongly indicates that that Biden can turn out some votes.  Three days ago, 538,000 people voted in the Democratic primary in South Carolina of which Biden got 262,000 (i.e., 49%).  Four years ago, only 373,000 voted (Clinton won 74% of them).  

The South Carolina primary looks a whole lot more like 2008, in which 532,000 people voted (Obama won 55%).

That, by the way, is in pretty serious contrast to Iowa and New Hampshire.

Who can get out the vote in a general election?  The proof of the pudding will be in the eating, I suppose.  But the fact is that with Biden, you're going to have Obama out there hustling his ass off.  And South Carolina sure indicates that it will be effective.

Is there any such evidence for Sanders?

Sanders will not draw Black voters to the polls the way Joe can. If enough Black voters turn out in places like Detroit, Milwaukee, and Philly - it could swing those states to Biden. 

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Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

I've been someone you've previously gone after with this rhetoric, so I can only assume I'm the type of person you have in mind with this statement.

Whether or not it fits you is up to you.

Rank these two things in order of what makes you feel the most motivated to act politically:
A) The condescension of a moralizing poster to your left
B) The crushing weight of capital on the backs of the working class

If you rank B above A then it doesn't apply to you. But that's up to you, not me.

And I'm 100% serious. I think there a lot of people here who would, if they were being honest with themselves, put A above B. I think you would agree with that, yes?

Quote

That being said, this type of bullshit that you spew makes me feel better about my decision.  To be clear, I am not basing my vote even 1% on what some lunatic on the internet thinks, but it sure prevents me from spending too much time worrying that I made the wrong call.

These two things contradict in a fairly obvious way.

What does my posting have to do with your supposed logic about Bernie himself alienating people?

Quote

Elections are literally goddamn popularity contests and it doesn't matter how good your ideas are (and most of them are VERY good!) if you can't get people to listen to them.

Excellent I hope you continue to feel good about your decisions. :)

3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

South Carolina strongly indicates that that Biden can turn out some votes.  Three days ago, 538,000 people voted in the Democratic primary in South Carolina of which Biden got 262,000 (i.e., 49%).  Four years ago, only 373,000 voted (Clinton won 74% of them).  

The South Carolina primary looks a whole lot more like 2008, in which 532,000 people voted (Obama won 55%).

That, by the way, is in pretty serious contrast to Iowa and New Hampshire.

Speaking of Iowa & NH contrasts:

Iowa 2008: Obama - 1st pace - 38%
Iowa 2020: Biden - 4th - 16%

NH 2008: Obama - 2nd - 37%
NH 2020: Biden - 5th - 8%

#sad

Quote

But the fact is that with Biden, you're going to have Obama out there hustling his ass off.

Define "hustling his ass off". As of right now, Biden's running one of the laziest imaginable campaigns.

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I don't give a shit what you or Bernie reply trolls think on Twitter. Shitposting from nobodies doesn't bother me.

Cool then I'm not talking about you :)

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

That wasn't the question.  Nobody asked whether Joe Biden (or any other Democrat) can put South Carolina in play (though I do think we have a shot--long though it may be--at the Senate seat there). 

The question was whether there is evidence that Joe Biden can get out the vote.  And there is.

One primary in one state, Bernie will probably get a huge popular vote lead after all of California turns in and they are on track to break turnout records too. That doesn't mean anything come November right now, there's going to be so much shit flinging between the convention and the general.

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Anyone else hearing from Beto/Pete friends who are shocked about this endorsement?

I'm up to 6 different people in the last 36 hours.

This one is a typical exchange. This one, in particular, is from someone whose daughter moved all the way to El Paso to work for Beto's campaign. Has two different pictures with Hillary framed in her house (both from fundraisers, of course).

She's PERSISTING! with Liz today. Didn't even try to pitch Bernie to her. Going to save that for if he gets the nomination.

I think they're coming to me because they're afraid to show their hand to their fellow Pete or Beto or whoever friends and they know how I view it all.

lol.png

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14 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 

I've been someone you've previously gone after with this rhetoric, so I can only assume I'm the type of person you have in mind with this statement.

To be clear, Joe Biden is not my first, second, third, fourth... hell, tenth choice to be President.  I agree with you on probably 90%+ of the issues, but in a contest between Joe and Bernie, I fear that Bernie will scare away voters.  Again, I like what Bernie stands for.  I respect his consistent record.  In a vacuum, I think he'd make a fine President. I just don't think the country will show up for him.  And I recognize that I come from a place of privilege where I can afford for my number one voting criteria to be "get Trump the hell out of here" rather than "how will I feed my family tonight."  I personally believe that steering the country away from Trump needs to be the first step, and then we can go to work on the other issues.  If I'm wrong, well then fuck me, but this is what I believe. 

That being said, this type of bullshit that you spew makes me feel better about my decision.  To be clear, I am not basing my vote even 1% on what some lunatic on the internet thinks, but it sure prevents me from spending too much time worrying that I made the wrong call (which was Warren, by the way.).

Equating someone who has a difference of opinion with Q-Anon?  Man, FUCK that.  Your team has had five years to figure out how to expand your base, and you dumbasses can't figure out that people don't like to be insulted.  Elections are literally goddamn popularity contests and it doesn't matter how good your ideas are (and most of them are VERY good!) if you can't get people to listen to them. 

 

So much this.

Here's a real issue--Bernie and his supporters are really bad at electoral politics.  That's because they're socialists.  And fundamentally, because they're socialists, they're sell-outs for even engaging in electoral politics.

The only way socialism comes into being is through class struggle and revolution.  That's the only way the workers can seize the means of production.  And when you have a class struggle and revolution, nobody cares about persuasion.

Bernie and his supporters are trying the class-struggle-and-revolution bit through electoral politics.  But that doesn't work, because persuasion is the key to electoral politics.  It's why Ramsay McDonald's first premiership was one of the shortest in British history; it's why Jeremy Corbyn can't hope to win a majority.  It's why the SDP has virtually never been the largest party in Germany and why the Socialists very rarely win anything in France.  The socialist fixation on revolutionary change is fundamentally at odds with the type of persuasion that is necessary to succeed in elections.

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13 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

I'm a Bernie Bro. Nothing Trump has done has had a material impact on my life.

That stereotype has nothing to do with Bernie's actual coalition.  Only fucking clowns like yourself who live on twitter believe and parrot that garbage.    

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Anyone else hearing from Beto/Pete friends who are shocked about this endorsement?
I'm up to 6 different people in the last 36 hours.
This one is a typical exchange. This one, in particular, is from someone whose daughter moved all the way to El Paso to work for Beto's campaign. Has two different pictures with Hillary framed in her house (both from fundraisers, of course).
She's PERSISTING! with Liz today. Didn't even try to pitch Bernie to her. Going to save that for if he gets the nomination.
I think they're coming to me because they're afraid to show their hand to their fellow Pete or Beto or whoever friends and they know how I view it all.
lol.png.3d7befc38189c4784644cdd13e948a29.png

Warren raised $29mm in February and her campaign is talking about staying in the race. They've got a nationwide network. I think they're going all in on the compromise candidate approach. I don't think she'll drop out after Super Tuesday.

And I'm very smart and said no one except maybe Steyer would drop out prior to today so you should trust me.
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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Warren raised $29mm in February and her campaign is talking about staying in the race. They've got a nationwide network. I think they're going all in on the compromise candidate approach. I don't think she'll drop out after Super Tuesday.

And I'm very smart and said no one except maybe Steyer would drop out prior to today so you should trust me.

I don't know what her play is, but I could see that happening.

Does she take a lot of votes away from Bernie?  I really don't know at this point.  I think I've come to decide that Bernie is kind of his own thing.  But I wonder if it isn't to Biden's benefit to keep Warren in the race.

And if Biden thinks it is to his benefit to keep her in the race, then I would think that the last 24 hours show that he will be able to manipulate that into happening.

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1 minute ago, bad_teammate said:

I confused myself by counting into the ballot initiatives and guess how many I'd overcounted. Too lazy to go back and start over.

I thought I could get away with sloppy journalism! #FakeNewsb_t

 

It's a weird format.

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What votes is Warren winning over Biden or Sanders?
College educated whites are where her support is concentrated. Particularly women. She also has a lot of support among black activists but that hasn't translated into votes.
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14 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

listeningtothechapotraphouse;dr

You should tell that to all the people in El Paso, Bexar, and Hidalgo counties who have and will vote for Bernie.  

Quote

Lydia Camarillo, president of the Southwest Voter Registration and Education Project, which focuses on engaging Latinos in politics, said she was not surprised that Sanders was doing well with Latino voters. Sanders’ main support has come from young voters, and a large portion of young voters in Texas are Latinos, she said.

Moreover, Sanders’ message of jobs, affordable college and free health care appeals to a Latino population that has been left behind in those areas.

“Our Latino youth is quickly becoming a majority not just here in Texas but the U.S. as a whole,” said Christine Bolaños, communications director for Jolt Action, a group that works to involve young Latinos in politics and has endorsed Sanders. “While they’re growing in population and voter power, they’re increasingly inundated in debt and struggling with access to care. It automatically makes them gravitate towards someone who appears to address their priorities.”

That message resonates with Millicent Olivarez, a 28-year-old Sanders volunteer in Brownsville. She recently graduated from college and now has over $20,000 in student loan debt. She worked in retail to pay her way through school. Those jobs meant she didn’t have time to do internships, a factor now hurting her job search.

"To have a campaign that is basically telling you, 'We are going to tax the rich, we are going to make them help us, we are all going to be on the same level, all be equal,' I think that's what you want," she said. "I think that is why he appeals so much."

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/politics/2020/02/28/desire-for-drastic-change-driving-texas-latino-voters-to-embrace-tio-bernie-sanders/

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pro-Bernie thought leader chiming in. We will see much more of this rhetoric over the next month or two. 

I guess Stoller only thinks of the "working class" as white people. 

 

 

I'm pretty blown away that the Bros are apparently taking their talking points from Fox News now.  My god, through the looking glass indeed.

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8 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Pro-Bernie thought leader chiming in. We will see much more of this rhetoric over the next month or two. 

I guess Stoller only thinks of the "working class" as white people. 

 

 

"The only way the Democrat will beat Trump is by securing the working class vote."

"If the Democrat beats Trump, he'll alienate the working class vote."

Galaxy brain.

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12 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm pretty blown away that the Bros are apparently taking their talking points from Fox News now.  My god, through the looking glass indeed.

It's almost like both sides are being manipulated by the same source.  Interesting.....

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I think this is overblown hysteria, to be honest. You are viewing only the negatives and not the positives of a Sanders nomination in terms of getting out the vote. And that goes back to my original point. Democrats and liberals want to vote for something, not against something. The GOP base could be convinced to hate a ham sandwich and show up in droves to vote against it. They will turn out to vote against Biden just as much as against Sanders by the time November rolls around.
The question is which candidate will get the liberal vote to the polls.


This debate has been raging on this thread for months. What’s more impactful, Sanders driving more liberal voters or Biden driving more swing voters. I continue to believe that Trump is so hated both will drive enough to win.
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3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:

I follow tons of Bernie "bros" on twitter and never have seen this guy from my recollection. It's a shitty take, it's not something I'm seeing repeated all over the official bro talking points.

That's surprising. Stoller gets a lot of engagement on Twitter. 

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