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2018 - Elections and Trends


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13 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

That all sounds very persuasive to progressive leaning people who follow the day to day minutiae of politics.   To Average Joe Arizonan, that race is now about whether or not the blond lady said it's okay to join the Taliban.

Is it too much to ask that Democratic candidates not act like complete fucktards?

never ever ever ever underestimate the Dems ability to miss a chip shot field goal to win the game.

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22 minutes ago, longhornmatt said:

That all sounds very persuasive to progressive leaning people who follow the day to day minutiae of politics.   To Average Joe Arizonan, that race is now about whether or not the blond lady said it's okay to join the Taliban.

It's quite obvious McSally is behind. (Maybe outside the MOE behind in her own internals) She is flinging shit at the walls, and then going up to the wall to smear the shit over the floor.  She's trying to define Sinema, but the whole point is do it EARLY, not 3 weeks from the election.

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Btw - in my "these are the political ads I'm seeing on Hulu" update -

New Culberson ad is 4 very 'diverse' women standing around a kitchen island, squawking NANCY PELOSI over and over again.  Apparently we couldn't afford Nancy Pelosi 10 years ago.  Man, not voting for her in the TX-7 race. 

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11 hours ago, Mole said:

GA early voter checking in here. I parked next to the Confederate memorial that's maybe 15 years old and voted Abrams. In a normal time, I would have voted for the libertarian election nerd that's spamming my Facebook for Secretary of State (Smythe DuVal) because he seems like the type of person we need in that job, but this isn't a normal time anymore. It was straight D except for some local positions. This is the first time I've ever done that.

Posted earlier, but this is a good site.

http://www.georgiavotes.com/

Doubt the turnout level will continue to be such a huge difference, but after the first day of in-person early voting we're seeing over 2.5x increase compared to 2014.

This is also a very useful site to track early voting everywhere,

http://www.electproject.org/early_2018

 

 

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On ‎10‎/‎15‎/‎2018 at 7:37 AM, GRHorn said:

We went over this in 2016. Democrats are always vastly underestimated by polls, because their base isn't poll able. 

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https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/democrats-blue-wave-midterms-suburban-woman-voters

Once reliably Republican-voting, college-educated white women — who make up a large portion of women voters in the suburbs — flipped from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow 6-point margin. That gap is now a chasm. In a poll of 59 battleground House races nationwide, college-educated white women now favor Democrats over Republicans by nearly 30 points.

ruh roh 

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https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/mollyhensleyclancy/democrats-blue-wave-midterms-suburban-woman-voters


Once reliably Republican-voting, college-educated white women — who make up a large portion of women voters in the suburbs — flipped from Mitt Romney to Hillary Clinton in 2016 by a narrow 6-point margin. That gap is now a chasm. In a poll of 59 battleground House races nationwide, college-educated white women now favor Democrats over Republicans by nearly 30 points.
ruh roh 


Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.
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12 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

 

I have legit hope for a democratic house majority and think there is like a 30% chance for 51 dem senate seats. But I understand you’ve been this board’s Eeyore for some time.

Even Eeyore had perspective every once in a while, though. This quote is just for you Brisket: “The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”

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25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

 

We have a minimum age for voting. Why can't we have a maximum? 

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I have legit hope for a democratic house majority and think there is like a 30% chance for 51 dem senate seats. But I understand you’ve been this board’s Eeyore for some time.
Even Eeyore had perspective every once in a while, though. This quote is just for you Brisket: “The nicest thing about the rain is that it always stops. Eventually.”

Irrelevant when you live here:

0173481744a545e371fbcc8fcd2748a7.jpg

Certain states will remain under GOP control. The SCOTUS will be conservative. The Voting Rights Act is dead. Free elections in GOP states are not going to happen. Ever.
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1 minute ago, NameWithHeld said:

The election of 2016 and President Hillary say "Hi".

Except that was true in Nevada, where polls favored Trump by 2-3 points in Nevada and Hillary won it by 3.  Nevada almost always sees Republicans overperform in polling but lose on actual Election Day.  Aka - Trump, Angle, Heck.  Even the RCP average in 2012 was Obama 2.8 and he won it by almost 7.

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Except that was true in Nevada, where polls favored Trump by 2-3 points in Nevada and Hillary won it by 3.  Nevada almost always sees Republicans overperform in polling but lose on actual Election Day.  Aka - Trump, Angle, Heck.  Even the RCP average in 2012 was Obama 2.8 and he won it by almost 7.

True.  I was referring to Nationwide polling sorry for the confusion that was my fault.

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41 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Irrelevant when you live here:

0173481744a545e371fbcc8fcd2748a7.jpg

Certain states will remain under GOP control. The SCOTUS will be conservative. The Voting Rights Act is dead. Free elections in GOP states are not going to happen. Ever.

Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

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Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

It’s really easy to get purged from the rolls, though. Especially if you don’t have a generic white name.

Put an apostrophe in there, or a hyphen, or two words (like de la Garza), and you’ll get purged. It’s happening in Georgia as we speak.

The GOP will do everything they can to keep minorities from voting. They’re not even trying to hide it.
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6 minutes ago, Voldemort86 said:

Can they really suppress the vote that much?  If you’re over 18, a citizen, and have no criminal record it’s not very difficult to get registered to vote. 

 

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


It’s really easy to get purged from the rolls, though. Especially if you don’t have a generic white name.

Put an apostrophe in there, or a hyphen, or two words (like de la Garza), and you’ll get purged. It’s happening in Georgia as we speak.

The GOP will do everything they can to keep minorities from voting. They’re not even trying to hide it.

i mean, it's not like we don't have a full fucking thread on this:

VOTER SUPPRESSION THREAD

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

 

 


Not enough. Old angry white guys will show up, and are all going to be allowed to vote. The other members of the opposing coalition, minorities, will not be.

Free and fair elections are a dead letter.

 

But remember, my dude, the GOP gerrymandered the House with the belief they would never lose this exact demographic by 30. fucking. points.

The gerrymander is about to look like a blown out asshole after Election Day.

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But remember, my dude, the GOP gerrymandered the House with the belief they would never lose this exact demographic by 30. fucking. points.
The gerrymander is about to look like a blown out asshole after Election Day.

Which is why the go with plan B: naked and shameless voter suppression.

And if you think that they aren’t also working in active concert with actors who can and have infiltrated our electronic voting systems, you’re a sucker.

The GOP is not about to allow any free and fair elections.
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Just now, Brisketexan said:


Which is why the go with plan B: naked and shameless voter suppression.

And if you think that they aren’t also working in active concert with actors who can and have infiltrated our electronic voting systems, you’re a sucker.

The GOP is not about to allow any free and fair elections.

So you think the GOP will hold the House? 

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I'm confused.   Are you saying they can't stop people voting for Dem or they will? 

I mean a dem House is a moral victory.

Trump will still do whatever he wants. Commit all the crimes that he wants. A subservient senate and SCOTUS will protect him. He is answerable to no one. This is how you create an authoritarian state - install compliant and toothless “checks” on power. After that, game over.
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Unfortunately, I'm on team Brisket.  The Constitution is just a piece of paper.  Our entire system of government requires people in charge who believe in the Constitution and the people (or at least most of us) to believe the government is legitimate.   Hell, the entire idea of government, particularly democracy, is a fiction that we have convinced ourselves of.  Once we the people no longer believe in it, it doesn't exist.

 

Whatever happens this election, Trump will ignore whatever he doesn't like from Congress and the courts.  And if the Dems win, Trump and his supporters will lie that it was due to millions of illegal aliens voting.  If the pubs win, well then, a large portion of the country will believe it was due to voter suppression, and there will be no remedy.  Whatever happens, we're fucked.

Edit to add: it's probably too late to fix this.  We had a window at the beginning of the presidency to hold Trump to account (emoluments, Russia, the Muslim ban, etc.).  Once he got away with all that and his supporters kept moving the goal posts of what was acceptable, and violating so many norms no one can keep it straight it was too late.

Edited by lemonlime
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Some friendly election advice from a lady on Twitter.

 

“Our democracy is in crisis. The president degrades the rule of law, spreads corruption, and discredits truth. Over the next three weeks, we all have a chance to turn back the tide. Here are three things you can do before November 6:

Study after study shows that person-to-person conversations are the most effective way to turn people out to vote. 

Sign up with @SwingLeft to knock on doors in a toss-up congressional district near you during the last weekend before the election.

Make a plan to vote, volunteer, make strategic donations, and turn out friends with crushthemidterms.org. 

Just answer a few questions about where you vote and how you can help and they'll send you a personalized plan of action.

Take advantage of @IndivisibleTeam's virtual phone-banking tool to make calls reminding people to vote. 

Recruit some friends to join you and make an afternoon of it.

Whatever you do, do something. These midterm elections are our last chance to defend our democracy. Let's win.”

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:


I mean a dem House is a moral victory.

Trump will still do whatever he wants. Commit all the crimes that he wants. A subservient senate and SCOTUS will protect him. He is answerable to no one. This is how you create an authoritarian state - install compliant and toothless “checks” on power. After that, game over.

Pretty sure it’s hard to have an “authoritarian” government when 90% of the media opposes the leader. But you keep doing you, Brisket. 

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Pretty sure it’s hard to have an “authoritarian” government when 90% of the media opposes the leader. But you keep doing you, Brisket. 
I don't think this is the way it's going but if you wanted to eliminate a free press, you would first delegitimize them. Then when you start on the censorship no one cares.
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Pretty sure it’s hard to have an “authoritarian” government when 90% of the media opposes the leader. But you keep doing you, Brisket. 

I don't think this is the way it's going but if you wanted to eliminate a free press, you would first delegitimize them. Then when you start on the censorship no one cares.

See fascism playbook, page 2.

Every single play is 100% predictable.

Eliminate the free press. Control all possible checks on your power. Characterize your opponents as criminals. Sound familiar?
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30 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

 


See fascism playbook, page 2.

Every single play is 100% predictable.

Eliminate the free press. Control all possible checks on your power. Characterize your opponents as criminals. Sound familiar?

 

Ah yes the Trump is fascist/Hitler angle. 

Tell me something Brisket, why don’t all these politicians and media that push that narrative balk at expanding military budgets, renewing NDAA, endlessly applaud any and all offensive actions, and chastise any efforts at peace?

Why hand more power to a budding fascist? 

Maybe they don’t really believe he is one. Maybe it’s just a good narrative to use to try to get themselves back into power. Maybe they’re just using fear to get votes as is always criticized (rightly) around here.  They’ve got some of y’all wound up well. 

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Another fun article to read about the repubs and their house majority. 

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/democrats-republicans-fundraising-midterms-908825

 

is there anyway the repubs can copy this campaign financing infrastructure?  I know they usually rely on their daddy Sheldon Adelson. I hate that guy so much and I’m glad he’s 85. Hopefully he won’t be a factor anymore soon.

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