Joe Biden Veepstakes 2020

[totallynotabuttpirate 5333]

4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

Kamala dropping, Bass surging this morning in the betting markets...perhaps due to this article.

https://mobile.twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1282667000846843904

LOL at that premise. 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

Yeah, that premise smells like bullshit.

I think Biden needs to be looked at as the clear #1 on the ticket come November, but his actions so far have been pretty selfless and and he's acting more like a team captain than some egomaniac. 

 

[Red Five 40574]

I seriously doubt Biden is going around telling aides "I want this to be all about me!!". 

[Snake Diggity 4607]

It would not surprise me one bit to find out Biden is running for president reluctantly (which is a good thing).  It would surprise me very much if the VP candidate being a strong personality had any negative impact on her chances.  In this case, the 2 VP candidates with strong personalities (Harris and Warren) not coincidentally are also the 2 most qualified.  If he wants someone who will be deferential he should pick one of the darkhorse senators.  But I still will be very surprised if it’s not Harris or Warren.

Edited July 13, 2020 by Snake Diggity

[Bama Chick 28596]

lol at that tweet

Biden is a LOT of things but he’s never struck me as some kind of attention seeking diva.

This is a white man of a certain age who easily put himself as submissive to a much younger, much less experienced black man. There was never a hint, a leak, a whisper from Biden’s camp ever in 8 years that undermined or criticized Obama.

Biden declining to run as the sitting VP and giving way to Hilary tells you that premise is pure garbage.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5781]

It worked for Hillary and Kaine! 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Some data on independents in battleground states regarding VP preferences.  

https://www.dataforprogress.org/memos/battleground-poll-results-of-independents

While it’s not the data I most want to see, it’s pretty clear who the independents want and why. 
 

Methodology

This survey fielded on YouGov’s online panel and included 538 Independent US voters living in battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The survey fielded from July 8-July 10, 2020, and was weighted to be representative of these states’ electorates by age, race/ethnicity, sex, education, US Census region, and 2016 Presidential vote choice. The margin of error for the survey is +/- 5%.

Edited July 16, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

['stache 21729]

Just got a fundraising text that Joe will select his VP "in a few days." My guess is Kamala.

[Dbeasy 14931]

I had a conversation with my step dad yesterday. He's a convert from Trump and is voting blue all the way down this fall. He's horrified by what he's seen. He hasn't been following this stuff as closely as the rest of us, but he's paying attention. He was asking about VPs, etc. He was mostly ok with Harris. But when I said the other leading candidate seems to be Warren, the progressive, he flat out said that would have to make him reconsider his vote, because she's too progressive.
It's one guy, albeit a highly educated one with two degrees in engineering and mathematics. A lifelong republican who is horrified by what he's seeing. And yet the mention of Warren as VP and he stopped abruptly. Again, a sample size of one. But I feel pretty comfortable assuming there are A LOT of moderates that feel similarly to him.  So this notion that warren is so popular with absolutely zero potential net negatives doesn't ring true to me. At all. So I don't think she should be the VP because there's about half a dozen ways she can be a meaningful and driving impact on the party and America while not being in the VP spot. It's not either/or. 

I’ve been saying this for months (and I like Warren) but the surly left elite has consistently shouted down this viewpoint.

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

8 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I’ve been saying this for months (and I like Warren) but the surly left elite has consistently shouted down this viewpoint.

To be fair, it's really only Hugo. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Biden could have easily eliminated Warren just now but he decided not to...11 days before August 1st.  He’s trolling me or he’s picking Warren. 
 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

We'll see what happens, but Fineman doing some serious wishcasting in that tweet. 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

21 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden could have easily eliminated Warren just now but he decided not to...11 days before August 1st.  He’s trolling me or he’s picking Warren. 
 

What a weird post. Biden hasn't eliminated a single VP candidate throughout this entire process. Why would he eliminate Elizabeth Warren on Joy Reid's show? 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

I agree, Biden could be keeping Trump campaign guessing by not taking Warren off the table. 

The media people apparently do not want Warren b/c they keep asking Biden “So you picking a Black woman or not?”  As if skin color is all that matters here. 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

What a weird post. Biden hasn't eliminated a single VP candidate throughout this entire process. Why would he eliminate Elizabeth Warren on Joy Reid's show? 

I mean, if Biden committed to picking a black woman it would have eliminated Warren.  Biden has eliminated every male from VP consideration so your second sentence isn’t accurate.

[henrygandorf 29169]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I agree, Biden could be keeping Trump campaign guessing to by not taking Warren off the table. 

yep.  as soon as biden eliminates warren, it'll force trump to stop attacking biden as "the radical left".

[BradInATX 9208]

Quote

yep.  as soon as biden eliminates warren, it'll force trump to stop attacking biden as "the radical left".

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

3 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

yep.  as soon as biden eliminates warren, it'll force trump to stop attacking biden as "the radical left".

LMAO

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

5 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I mean, if Biden committed to picking a black woman it would have eliminated Warren.  Biden has eliminated every male from VP consideration so your second sentence isn’t accurate.

He hasn't ever committed to picking a black woman as VP.  Why would he do it now? 

[6th Street 6329]

37 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden could have easily eliminated Warren just now but he decided not to...11 days before August 1st.  He’s trolling me or he’s picking Warren. 
 

 

Biden-Warren ticket is 150 years of old white people lol

[Pancho 44181]

45 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Biden could have easily eliminated Warren just now but he decided not to...11 days before August 1st.  He’s trolling me or he’s picking Warren. 
 

 

He and his campaign would be an idiot to “eliminate” someone regardless of race on national tv when they plan to announce their pick here in a few days. 

[Dbeasy 14931]

He should pick Mitt Romney. That would cause Trump to spontaneously combust.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

24 minutes ago, Pancho said:

He and his campaign would be an idiot to “eliminate” someone regardless of race on national tv when they plan to announce their pick here in a few days. 

If what you say is true (it is), why does the media keep trying to get Biden to commit to a Black woman?   He’s been asked the same question a dozen different ways.  

[Bama Chick 28596]

If what you say is true (it is), why does the media keep trying to get Biden to commit to a Black woman?   He’s been asked the same question a dozen different ways.  

Are you seriously asking why the media is continually asking a presidential candidate to give more specific information about the biggest decision he will make while running for president?

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

18 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Are you seriously asking why the media is continually asking a presidential candidate to give more specific information about the biggest decision he will make while running for president?

They are solely focused on skin color.  Yes, I’m wondering why that is their only focus instead of literally anything else. It’s rather odd.

for reference:

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[BradInATX 9208]

Hugo having a hard time understanding why this person

Is interested and invested in whether or not a black woman will be the Vice President

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by BradInATX

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

To be fair, believing that representation doesn't matter is on brand for people who are huge Warren supporters. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I kid, I kid. 

[Patrick Bateman 3874]

This page has gone full dumbassery.  Let's try and salvage it.  My Lord.  

He's got some solid options to choose from.

 

[Satchel 6908]

7 minutes ago, Patrick Bateman said:

This page has gone full dumbassery.  Let's try and salvage it.  My Lord.  

He's got some solid options to choose from.

This^

 

[Pancho 44181]

Joy Reid (congrats on her new show) is just asking a question.  There’s nothing I read into that when I watched it. 

I’ve said before and I’ll say it again—it doesn’t give a damn who he picks.  He’s committed to a woman, and there are at least 4-5 women who are solid choices.  

If you don’t vote for Biden because he picks Harris over Warren or Warren over Val or Val over Tammy, then you deserved to be punched in the nuts or boobs multiple times because you’re a fucking idiot. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Joy was completely in bounds to ask the question.  My criticism is more about the overall media coverage with the VP pick, it has been almost exclusively about race.  
 

Their is no, “well what do voters think?”  “What does the data tell us?”  “Does it even matter?” “How well does this ticket do vs another ticket?” This is exactly how the primary was covered.  It was all about electability and data.  But the VP isn’t covered with that framing at all.  It’s been something else.  

Of course I’m voting Biden regardless of who he picks and it would be great to see a Black woman as VP.  My beef is with the media on this, not Biden or his campaign.

Edited July 21, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[henrygandorf 29169]

anyone who blame's biden's selection for costing their vote was never voting for biden.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Joy Reid (congrats on her new show) is just asking a question.  There’s nothing I read into that when I watched it. 

I’ve said before and I’ll say it again—it doesn’t give a damn who he picks.  He’s committed to a woman, and there are at least 4-5 women who are solid choices.  

If you don’t vote for Biden because he picks Harris over Warren or Warren over Val or Val over Tammy, then you deserved to be punched in the nuts or boobs multiple times because you’re a fucking idiot. 

Thank you for these comments. I'm very pleased that there are several amazing women and had no issue with him holding off on the announcement. Any one of them has to be able to take a shit ton of vitriol that is fixing to be spewed their way by the Trump campaign and foreign influences once selected. I'm going to support whomever it is with a Shield of Democracy just like Wonder Woman with the bullet deflecting arm bands.

[Satchel 6908]

If ever there was a time to fall in love during the primaries and fall in line after the convention, this is it.

[henrygandorf 29169]

2 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Joy was completely in bounds to ask the question.  My criticism is more about the overall media coverage with the VP pick, it has been almost exclusively about race.  
 

Their is no, “well what do voters think?”  “What does the data tell us?”  “Does it even matter?” “How well does this ticket do vs another ticket?” This is exactly how the primary was covered.  It was all about electability and data.  But the VP isn’t covered with that framing at all.  It’s been something else.  

Of course I’m voting Biden regardless of who he picks and it would be great to see a Black woman as VP.  My beef is with the media on this, not Biden or his campaign.

all those questions are poll-based.  i've seen very little polling on vp picks, but i'm sure cnn would bring it up if it was a cnn poll, etc, or if there was some earth-shattering news contained in them (there isn't).

otherwise, you seem to be getting upset that tv journalists/hosts/interviewers are trying to get a scoop live during an interview.  on these shows, "the media" is supposed to ask questions and get answers that inform the public (either in a panel setting or a 1-1 interview).  they're not supposed to editorialize or read polls to explain to the viewers what's going on.  there are different shows for that.

also, this is not a normal election year, with an incumbent president and a challenger.  covid has sucked all the oxygen out of the world, and the remaining gasps are mostly about blm/police violence/protests.  nobody cares who biden picks.  if trump wasn't such a fuck, nobody would even care about an election where someone has a double-digit lead.

honestly hugo, you sound like how i get when i watch mlb network and get mad that they're not talking about the astros enough.  i feel like you're only going to be happy if a host says, "the polls say warren should be the pick, what does everyone else think?", and then he/she just hands it to a panel who all agree and then start chanting.  and btw, for all the "they should cover this how they covered the primaries" i remember quite a bit of complaining from you about how the media covered the primaries as well.

maybe msnbc isn't for you.

[Bruh Man 3160]

Last year at the She The People forum in Houston, Warren got the best response from the audience of black women. She was the only candidate to get a standing ovation. I remember Joy Reid opining on it at the time as well (she was also the moderator). 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20592]

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

The plot thickens! 

[Mo Horn 8779]

Haven't seen anything here lately about Val Demings, but some articles are saying she's the favorite. 

[Patrick Bateman 3874]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

5 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Haven't seen anything here lately about Val Demings, but some articles are saying she's the favorite. 

She's been covered heavily in the thread.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

They are going to hype everyone over the next two weeks for the favorable PR and elevate rising stars. 

Edited July 22, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[henrygandorf 29169]

8 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

They are going to hype everyone over the next two weeks for the favorable PR and elevate rising stars. 

good. 

gop will die with trump’s defeat (for a few years). paint the dems as talented with a deep bench. 

 

[gmr548 16427]

I’ve been saying this for months (and I like Warren) but the surly left elite has consistently shouted down this viewpoint.

It's pretty well documented that VP doesn't move the needle for most voters.

Also, someone who would vote for Donald Trump and Mike Pence because Joe Biden picked a liberal VP isn't a moderate. They're pretty far right wing and looking for cover. There's nothing moderate about Trump-Pence.

[gmr548 16427]

yep.  as soon as biden eliminates warren, it'll force trump to stop attacking biden as "the radical left".

Biden could pick Ayn Rand and still get that same attack. And Republican voters would eat it up.

[Pancho 44181]

It's the well known secret the favorites are Harris and Warren.   I think anyone can see that. 

 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

It's the well known secret the favorites are Harris and Warren.   I think anyone can see that. 

There are many observations I don’t post because it will quickly be followed up with gaslighting and an armchair psychological assessment. 

If it’s going to be Harris the Biden campaign is pulling off one hell of a head fake.  It could be my biased perception but it doesn’t seem like Kamala Harris and the Biden Team are on the same page with messaging.  Which could be the head fake but also, seems like poor strategy. 

I know Kamala is favored in the betting markets but that means so little.  I also think the longer Biden waits to announce the better, as long as it’s before the convention.  Don’t give the Trump campaign another target until it’s absolutely necessary. 

I have to wonder why Biden is pushing a lot of Warren policy.  It could go both ways.  Either he’s making concessions on policy to compensate for not putting Warren on the ticket or he’s adopting her ideas because he wants her to sell them as his partner on the ticket. Either way, Warren will be advocating for Biden’s newfound progressivism, at least rhetorically. 

The media have been complete hacks in their coverage of Biden’s VP, superficial and shallow analysis all around, which is to be expected.

[Snake Diggity 4607]

Yep.  Bad idea to announce any earlier than absolutely necessary.  Gives more publicity to the runners-up, which is good for the party.  Reduces the time the VP candidate has to weather the spotlight and be open for attack.  Gives more time for Biden and the pick to develop a relationship out of the spotlight and prepare for messaging.  The convention is the 17th, so I’d announce sometime between the 1st and the 10th, depending on the news cycle.

I still think Harris is the bettors’ pick.  Warren is who I think would make the best President.  Still a little torn on who would have the best impact on the election results, but it’s probably negligible and shouldn’t be a major factor.

[Larry T. Spider 1740]

I think people are overthinking this. Kamala checks the most boxes. I voted for warren in the primary but he’s not going to make it two old white people on the ticket. The only pause I give my pick is how kamala went after joe in the debates. There could be some bad blood there and she would definitely have to walk some statements back. Money is still on kamala though.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

5 minutes ago, Larry T. Spider said:

but he’s not going to make it two old white people on the ticket.

Why?  What voter will that turn off?  This take makes little sense under scrutiny IMO.

The democratic voters demonstrated they love old white people with Biden/Bernie/Warren coming in 1,2,3 in the primary.

Edited July 22, 2020 by Hugo Stiglitz

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Here’s some more data: 

Research Goals

From July 7-9, 2020, Avalanche conducted a deep listening survey of 4,193 registered voters (MoE ±1.27) excluding Trump supporters in top battleground states (MI, WI, PA, NV, AZ, NC, and FL) to determine the desired attributes that voters are looking for in Joe Biden’s running mate. The sample included three segments of the electorate that the Biden campaign should be most concerned about: voters who say they will definitely vote for Biden, voters who are leaning toward voting Biden, and undecided voters.

The flaw in this polling is there are too many options.  I’d much rather see preferences when it’s a head to head competition.  Like, just make the options Kamala vs Warren (or Warren vs Rice) and see how it shakes out.  Having 5+ VP choices can hide a lot of telling information. 

The polling data made publicly available on this topic has been mostly horrible.