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2020 Texas Early Voting Numbers


StassneyHorn

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16 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Warren was still on the ticket during early voting. I “wasted” my vote but I’m still glad I cast a ballot for her. Ranked choices would fix this in a primary, I agree. 

Yeah but Warren stayed in the race past Texas so with no early voting you still would have been able to vote for her on Texas election day.  But not Pete or Amy K or someone else I think that dropped out after South Carolina but before super tuesday.  Bloomberg maybe?

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7 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but Warren stayed in the race past Texas so with no early voting you still would have been able to vote for her on Texas election day.  But not Pete or Amy K or someone else I think that dropped out after South Carolina but before super tuesday.  Bloomberg maybe?

Klobuchar was on the ballot in Texas and was still in the race.

Edited by BradInATX
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45 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Harris county voting is accelerating:

 

From 7-9, 8,660 people voted, 4,330 votes per hour.

From 9-11, ~11,000 people voted, 5,500 votes per hour.

From 11-1:30, ~18,000 people voted, 7,200 per hour. 

The overall mix is 5,900 votes per hour. 

So by my count, Harris County is going to go over 800,000 votes cast by the end of the day.  That is against 1.3M votes cast for all of 2016 (i.e., early voting and Election Day).

It seems to me highly likely that Harris County is going to exceed its entire vote total for 2016 before Election Day (and possibly substantially before Election Day).

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27 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Yeah but Warren stayed in the race past Texas so with no early voting you still would have been able to vote for her on Texas election day.  But not Pete or Amy K or someone else I think that dropped out after South Carolina but before super tuesday.  Bloomberg maybe?

I was almost certain she dropped out right before Super Tuesday, but you're right.  I guess I was recalling how so many more bad Warren numbers came out between my early vote and Super Tuesday / Election Day that I would have voted differently on Election Day.

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20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

No no no. She dropped out 24 or 48 hours before super Tuesday.  Same day as Mayo Pete. I'm like 97% sure. 

Maybe you're right. I know someone who is politically active that voted for her, but that person probably voted early.

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8 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

I was almost certain she dropped out right before Super Tuesday, but you're right.  I guess I was recalling how so many more bad Warren numbers came out between my early vote and Super Tuesday / Election Day that I would have voted differently on Election Day.

Yeah, that was the "fix is in" against Bernie moment for sure in the Dem primaries (I'm not complaining- I"m impressed and wish the GOP could have done the same to Trump) in that all the people in Joe's lane got out right before super Tuesday and Warren stayed in until like 3 weeks later when she was presumably in Bernie's lane.

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13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Maybe you're right. I know someone who is politically active that voted for her, but that person probably voted early.

My wife wanted to vote for her.  She specifically waited until day of to see which way the winds were blowing b/c she wanted to maximize her "not Bernie" vote.  She had to flip to Biden b/c Amy K dropped out the Saturday or Sunday before regular Super Tuesday voting.  

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11 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

I'm seeing she announced she was out of the race on March 5, which was two days after ST.  Doesn't matter.

Warren?  Yeah, so you would have been voting for her on Super Tuesday and she'd have collected that vote with ranked choice (I think). 

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

Harris county voting is accelerating:

 

From 7-9, 8,660 people voted, 4,330 votes per hour.

From 9-11, ~11,000 people voted, 5,500 votes per hour.

From 11-1:30, ~18,000 people voted, 7,200 per hour. 

The overall mix is 5,900 votes per hour. 

 

Keeping pace.

From 1:30 to 3:17 we got at least 12,340 votes or 7,216 per hour. 

Overall number is at 6,090 per hour. I think we are going to come right at the in person total from yesterday (74k). I doubt we get anything like 17,000 mail in ballots though. 

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6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

Keeping pace.

From 1:30 to 3:17 we got at least 12,340 votes or 7,216 per hour. 

Overall number is at 6,090 per hour. I think we are going to come right at the in person total from yesterday (74k). I doubt we get anything like 17,000 mail in ballots though. 

I'm not voting this year b/c yuck, but if I were I would be voting on election day b/c I always vote on election day. I like to vote on election day.  From these numbers it looks like I'd be about the only one voting that day.  Damn. 

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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm not voting this year b/c yuck, but if I were I would be voting on election day b/c I always vote on election day. I like to vote on election day.  From these numbers it looks like I'd be about the only one voting that day.  Damn. 

Wait a minute--you're not voting?  In the Great Election to determine whether we will have a Republic going forward, you're voting "present"?

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1 minute ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I'm not voting this year b/c yuck, but if I were I would be voting on election day b/c I always vote on election day. I like to vote on election day.  From these numbers it looks like I'd be about the only one voting that day.  Damn. 

LOL, not willing to do the smallest thing to help end the menace that your party brought. Figures. 

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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

LOL, not willing to do the smallest thing to help end the menace that your party brought. Figures. 

Not my party. Unless voting for W in 2004 makes it my party.    I've said I'm not voting or voting 3rd party for months now. I have nobody I actively want to support to any office I could vote for on my ballot, so I don't vote.  The decision not to vote or to vote third party is still a decision and a message. Again, this is old news- I already got buttfucked thoroughly all up and down here for daring to say that 1) Your vote isn't determinative of anything and 2) People should do what they want to do/what makes them happy when it comes to voting b/c there's no chance of their vote determining any election on their ballot. 

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3 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

Wait a minute--you're not voting?  In the Great Election to determine whether we will have a Republic going forward, you're voting "present"?

NO- I'm not voting present. You'd have to show up and cast a ballot to vote present (that's in my opinion what voting 3rd party is) I'm not even doing that. 

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Just now, Dahobbs said:

Believe what you want. I'll continue to judge you. I think history will too. 

Cool. So lets not fucking do this again for the 2nd time in a month then. Huh?  You've already clearly said you think anyone who votes for Trump needs to be on the other side of a truth and reconciliation squad. Somehow I think I will be able to sleep at night knowing that you are judging me along with 45% or so of the population. 

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At least vote for people that you think will have some kind of push to contain and get rid of COVID instead of sitting on your hands. Do you want four more years of this response? Can your 401k survive that or do you think the market has a Trump presidency priced in?

Edited by StassneyHorn
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17 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

Keeping pace.

From 1:30 to 3:17 we got at least 12,340 votes or 7,216 per hour. 

Overall number is at 6,090 per hour. I think we are going to come right at the in person total from yesterday (74k). I doubt we get anything like 17,000 mail in ballots though. 

Yep, yesterday's mail number was obviously because of Sunday mail backlog. 

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Maybe in the 90's, I did.  I've voted in every single primary, run-off, special, municipal, and general that I can ever remember since 1994.  I don't know that I've ever sat out so much as a local school board run-off.  But I have never understood the "I'll only vote if I can vote on Election Day" ideology.  What the fuck is the point of that?  I mean, if you make it that day---great.  Kudos.  But I've heard from so many people the last two years, "I was gonna vote, but the lines on Election Day were too long."  What the fuck?  How is that an excuse nowadays?  That's not sentimental nor patriotic, it's stupid.  Three weeks including weekends to early vote.  Get off your ass.

I only shop for holiday gifts on Black Friday.  We only have oral sex on Valentine's Day.  I only drink beer on Saint Patrick's Day.  I only vote on Election Day.

What the fuck people?  There's a whole new world out here. Come check it out, you sheltered fuckbags.  

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10 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Cool. So lets not fucking do this again for the 2nd time in a month then. Huh?  You've already clearly said you think anyone who votes for Trump needs to be on the other side of a truth and reconciliation squad. Somehow I think I will be able to sleep at night knowing that you are judging me along with 45% or so of the population. 

Sorry, I did delete that post. At any rate, you actually weren't included in that group unless you are supporting Trump or those that do. And, just so its clear, I said shame, which is something the founders actually expected us to do. A good shunning can go a lot to either correct someone's mindset or at the very least make them hesitant from sharing their repulsive views. 

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12 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Maybe in the 90's, I did.  I've voted in every single primary, run-off, special, municipal, and general that I can ever remember since 1994.  I don't know that I've ever sat out so much as a local school board run-off.  But I have never understood the "I'll only vote if I can vote on Election Day" ideology.  What the fuck is the point of that?  I mean, if you make it that day---great.  Kudos.  But I've heard from so many people the last two years, "I was gonna vote, but the lines on Election Day were too long."  What the fuck?  How is that an excuse nowadays?  That's not sentimental nor patriotic, it's stupid.  Three weeks including weekends to early vote.  Get off your ass.

I only shop for holiday gifts on Black Friday.  We only have oral sex on Valentine's Day.  I only drink beer on Saint Patrick's Day.  I only vote on Election Day.

What the fuck people?  There's a whole new world out here. Come check it out, you sheltered fuckbags.  

I like voting on election day. Nothing more to it than that. When I vote- it's for someone I think is going to do something good for America and that I believe in, and I like doing it at the time when the most of my fellow American's are out voting- I feel a sense of solidarity in participating in the election with my fellow American's that I feel at few other times/places.  No more than that. 

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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I like voting on election day. Nothing more to it than that. When I vote- it's for someone I think is going to do something good for America and that I believe in, and I like doing it at the time when the most of my fellow American's are out voting- I feel a sense of solidarity in participating in the election with my fellow American's that I feel at few other times/places.  No more than that. 

That's cool.  There's gotta be somebody down ballot that can get you out during early voting.  You're a lawyer, gotta be some local judge you give a shit about or hate?  

 

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23 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not my party. Unless voting for W in 2004 makes it my party.    I've said I'm not voting or voting 3rd party for months now. I have nobody I actively want to support to any office I could vote for on my ballot, so I don't vote.  The decision not to vote or to vote third party is still a decision and a message. Again, this is old news- I already got buttfucked thoroughly all up and down here for daring to say that 1) Your vote isn't determinative of anything and 2) People should do what they want to do/what makes them happy when it comes to voting b/c there's no chance of their vote determining any election on their ballot. 

This is not true.

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Wife and I voted yesterday at Toyota center,  could not have been easier. We're not huge NBA fans but decided to vote there because of the efforts they did to help out with increases in voting polls. We live in GOOF area but still really easy,  hope everyone finds a place and utilizes the tools in place to find a spot close and minimizing wait times

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50 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not my party. Unless voting for W in 2004 makes it my party.    I've said I'm not voting or voting 3rd party for months now. I have nobody I actively want to support to any office I could vote for on my ballot, so I don't vote.  The decision not to vote or to vote third party is still a decision and a message. Again, this is old news- I already got buttfucked thoroughly all up and down here for daring to say that 1) Your vote isn't determinative of anything and 2) People should do what they want to do/what makes them happy when it comes to voting b/c there's no chance of their vote determining any election on their ballot. 

Don’t blame me.  I voted for Kodos.

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26 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I like voting on election day. Nothing more to it than that. When I vote- it's for someone I think is going to do something good for America and that I believe in, and I like doing it at the time when the most of my fellow American's are out voting- I feel a sense of solidarity in participating in the election with my fellow American's that I feel at few other times/places.  No more than that. 

So an important thing I learned four years ago--voting early really help your preferred candidate/party.  

Around this time four years ago, I got a call from a buddy who is a big political guy.  He's pissed at me.

Him: Hey, asshole, why am I calling you on my GOTV calls?

Me: I don't know.

Him:  You're on my list to call to get out your vote.  Are you not voting for [mutual friend]?

Me:  No--I am.  I was just waiting until Election Day.

Him:  [increasingly agitated] WHY?

Me:  I don't know, man.  I just like the hustle and bustle of Election Day.  I like seeing my neighbors and shit.

Him:  Listen up, fucker--get your ass out there today and vote.  Because you haven't yet voted, you're showing up on my GOTV call list.  We get an updated list every night of who has voted early.  So as soon as you vote, we can delete you from our GOTV list.  But since you're on the list, I have to call you and waste time talking to you when I could be calling someone who may or may not vote.  You're wasting my fucking time.

Me:  I mean, ok.

Him:  And anyway, you could get hit by a bus before Election Day.

Me:  Your concern is touching.

Him:  Grab your car keys and go fucking vote right fucking now, dumbass.

Me:  Ok.

So yeah--remember that.  If you care about your candidates/party, help them out and vote early.  That way they can focus their GOTV efforts on people who are less reliable voters.  

Also, with that in mind, I think the GOP strategy (if you can call it that) of encouraging Election Day voting is a real mistake.  While the Democrats can focus their GOTV efforts on marginal voters, the GOP doesn't have that luxury.  They're going to have to spread their GOTV efforts across a lot more people who haven't yet voted.  And that makes the GOTV effort a lot less effecitve.

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9 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So an important thing I learned four years ago--voting early really help your preferred candidate/party.  

Around this time four years ago, I got a call from a buddy who is a big political guy.  He's pissed at me.

Him: Hey, asshole, why am I calling you on my GOTV calls?

Me: I don't know.

Him:  You're on my list to call to get out your vote.  Are you not voting for [mutual friend]?

Me:  No--I am.  I was just waiting until Election Day.

Him:  [increasingly agitated] WHY?

Me:  I don't know, man.  I just like the hustle and bustle of Election Day.  I like seeing my neighbors and shit.

Him:  Listen up, fucker--get your ass out there today and vote.  Because you haven't yet voted, you're showing up on my GOTV call list.  We get an updated list every night of who has voted early.  So as soon as you vote, we can delete you from our GOTV list.  But since you're on the list, I have to call you and waste time talking to you when I could be calling someone who may or may not vote.  You're wasting my fucking time.

Me:  I mean, ok.

Him:  And anyway, you could get hit by a bus before Election Day.

Me:  Your concern is touching.

Him:  Grab your car keys and go fucking vote right fucking now, dumbass.

Me:  Ok.

So yeah--remember that.  If you care about your candidates/party, help them out and vote early.  That way they can focus their GOTV efforts on people who are less reliable voters.  

Also, with that in mind, I think the GOP strategy (if you can call it that) of encouraging Election Day voting is a real mistake.  While the Democrats can focus their GOTV efforts on marginal voters, the GOP doesn't have that luxury.  They're going to have to spread their GOTV efforts across a lot more people who haven't yet voted.  And that makes the GOTV effort a lot less effecitve.

I don’t know that anything the gop is doing rises to the level of strategy 

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14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So an important thing I learned four years ago--voting early really help your preferred candidate/party.  

Around this time four years ago, I got a call from a buddy who is a big political guy.  He's pissed at me.

Him: Hey, asshole, why am I calling you on my GOTV calls?

Me: I don't know.

Him:  You're on my list to call to get out your vote.  Are you not voting for [mutual friend]?

Me:  No--I am.  I was just waiting until Election Day.

Him:  [increasingly agitated] WHY?

Me:  I don't know, man.  I just like the hustle and bustle of Election Day.  I like seeing my neighbors and shit.

Him:  Listen up, fucker--get your ass out there today and vote.  Because you haven't yet voted, you're showing up on my GOTV call list.  We get an updated list every night of who has voted early.  So as soon as you vote, we can delete you from our GOTV list.  But since you're on the list, I have to call you and waste time talking to you when I could be calling someone who may or may not vote.  You're wasting my fucking time.

Me:  I mean, ok.

Him:  And anyway, you could get hit by a bus before Election Day.

Me:  Your concern is touching.

Him:  Grab your car keys and go fucking vote right fucking now, dumbass.

Me:  Ok.

So yeah--remember that.  If you care about your candidates/party, help them out and vote early.  That way they can focus their GOTV efforts on people who are less reliable voters.  

Also, with that in mind, I think the GOP strategy (if you can call it that) of encouraging Election Day voting is a real mistake.  While the Democrats can focus their GOTV efforts on marginal voters, the GOP doesn't have that luxury.  They're going to have to spread their GOTV efforts across a lot more people who haven't yet voted.  And that makes the GOTV effort a lot less effecitve.

This x99394848

I went off the handle at a few posters during the early voting debate at about the first week or second week because of this, and I do regret it. The sooner your name gets cleared, the sooner some data nerds can update models and convince bosses where outreach and money should go.Plus, you get to drink on Election Day and not make it to work tomorrow.

If you haven’t requested the day off for November 4th do it now.

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44 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

So an important thing I learned four years ago--voting early really help your preferred candidate/party.  

Around this time four years ago, I got a call from a buddy who is a big political guy.  He's pissed at me.

Him: Hey, asshole, why am I calling you on my GOTV calls?

Me: I don't know.

Him:  You're on my list to call to get out your vote.  Are you not voting for [mutual friend]?

Me:  No--I am.  I was just waiting until Election Day.

Him:  [increasingly agitated] WHY?

Me:  I don't know, man.  I just like the hustle and bustle of Election Day.  I like seeing my neighbors and shit.

Him:  Listen up, fucker--get your ass out there today and vote.  Because you haven't yet voted, you're showing up on my GOTV call list.  We get an updated list every night of who has voted early.  So as soon as you vote, we can delete you from our GOTV list.  But since you're on the list, I have to call you and waste time talking to you when I could be calling someone who may or may not vote.  You're wasting my fucking time.

Me:  I mean, ok.

Him:  And anyway, you could get hit by a bus before Election Day.

Me:  Your concern is touching.

Him:  Grab your car keys and go fucking vote right fucking now, dumbass.

Me:  Ok.

So yeah--remember that.  If you care about your candidates/party, help them out and vote early.  That way they can focus their GOTV efforts on people who are less reliable voters.  

Also, with that in mind, I think the GOP strategy (if you can call it that) of encouraging Election Day voting is a real mistake.  While the Democrats can focus their GOTV efforts on marginal voters, the GOP doesn't have that luxury.  They're going to have to spread their GOTV efforts across a lot more people who haven't yet voted.  And that makes the GOTV effort a lot less effecitve.

If this isn’t the actual script they use, it should be. 

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A Dailykos writer txjackalope looked up the voting history in early voters in Collin, Williamson, Harris, and Dallas, and it shows that Democrats are way ahead of their totals in 2016 and 2018 so far. So if you weren't convinced that there is a democratic advantage in early voting, now you know. Here is the data from the story. (sorry about the poor formatting, but I did not feel like cleaning it up.)

        R Primary Voter  No D history:   Mixed Primary  Last R:    D Primary Voter  no R history:    Mixed Primary  Last D  Gen Elec Voter  No Primary:    New Voter
Collin 20    30.3%    0.3%    24.5%    3.8%    28.4%    12.7%
Collin 18    40.5%    0.8%    17.9%    1.5%    29.7%    6.9%
Collin 16    43.3%    0.6%    13.7%    1.2%    28.5%    12.7%

Williamson 20    29.0%    0.4%    30.4%    4.3%    24.5%    11.4%
Williamson 18    37.9%    1.0%    22.8%    1.9%    26.4%    8.3%
Williamson 16    41.1%    0.9%    19.1%    1.6%    25.1%    12.1%

Harris 20    22.5%    0.3%    32.0%    2.7%    30.6%    11.9%
Harris 18    32.3%    0.7%    27.2%    1.4%    30.0%    5.5%
Harris 16    31.2%    0.9%    24.4%    0.9%    30.5%    12.2%

Dallas 20    18.4%    0.5%    41.2%    3.9%    25.5%    10.6%
Dallas 18    27.0%    0.8%    33.7%    2.0%    28.0%    6.5%
Dallas 16    28.5%    1.1%    29.9%    1.2%    28.1%    11.2%

 The Link

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not my party. Unless voting for W in 2004 makes it my party.    I've said I'm not voting or voting 3rd party for months now. I have nobody I actively want to support to any office I could vote for on my ballot, so I don't vote.  The decision not to vote or to vote third party is still a decision and a message. Again, this is old news- I already got buttfucked thoroughly all up and down here for daring to say that 1) Your vote isn't determinative of anything and 2) People should do what they want to do/what makes them happy when it comes to voting b/c there's no chance of their vote determining any election on their ballot. 

please-explain-that-better.jpg

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2 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Not my party. Unless voting for W in 2004 makes it my party.    I've said I'm not voting or voting 3rd party for months now. I have nobody I actively want to support to any office I could vote for on my ballot, so I don't vote.  The decision not to vote or to vote third party is still a decision and a message. Again, this is old news- I already got buttfucked thoroughly all up and down here for daring to say that 1) Your vote isn't determinative of anything and 2) People should do what they want to do/what makes them happy when it comes to voting b/c there's no chance of their vote determining any election on their ballot. 

Dude, stop your bitching and go vote for Joe Biden. It'll make you feel better.

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