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The Robert Mueller Investigation


Hugo Stiglitz

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Much like a death row convict who discovers religion on the eve of his execution, I believe the Senate GOP will do whatever is necessary to protect themselves in the face of a Trump disaster.  Now, they might be the last to hold out hope for Trump (aside from family) but....they are political animals.  Survival is their number one skillset.  Disavowing Trump, even at the last possible second, shouldn't surprise no one.

Yes, if it comes to that all of them will look like spineless cowards.  But how is that different than how they look today?

Edited by Francisco 2.0
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It’s because people have made a calculation that the GOP senators won’t convict, Trump won’t resign, and a president can’t be indicted. 
It’s a reasonable calculation but it ignores that this is BY FAR the single biggest scandal in US history and the political environment can change on a dime. 

It’s not a mechanism. It’s realism, and we can count voters the same way the GOP senators count em. They turn on Trump, the Trumpkins abandon them, they lose re-election.

The size of the scandal doesn’t matter. Only Trumpkins matter. They will not turn on him. So the senators will not turn on him. Simple as that. Some truths are that simple.
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8 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Much like a death row convict who discovers religion on the eve of his execution, I believe the Senate GOP will do whatever is necessary to protect themselves in the face of a Trump disaster.  Now, they might be the last to hold out hope for Trump (aside from family) but....they are political animals.  Survival is their number one skillset.  Disavowing Trump, even at the last possible second, shouldn't surprise no one.

Yes, if it comes to that all of them will look like spineless cowards.  But how is that different than how they look today?

Pretty much my take...Romney’s bullshit op-Ed was kind of a set up for that potential moment.

After going through the timeline, 2018 was non-stopped Trump rage tweeting about Comey, FBI, and the investigation and it accomplished nothing.

He looks so fucking guilty. 

Good god, to think this idiot could have remained silent the entire time. 

Sad!

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15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


It’s not a mechanism. It’s realism, and we can count voters the same way the GOP senators count em. They turn on Trump, the Trumpkins abandon them, they lose re-election.

The size of the scandal doesn’t matter. Only Trumpkins matter. They will not turn on him. So the senators will not turn on him. Simple as that. Some truths are that simple.

Okay, Brisketexan.  I’m almost as jaded as you are and I believe the GOP can get away with anything, including removing Trump.  Those Trumpkins don’t fuel the big money machine and the conservative movement is all but dead now in America.  Trumpism isn’t growing, it’s dying.

If they want to obtain power in the future, they’re going to have to sacrifice Trump. 

Edited by Hugo Stiglitz
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But in a lot of states - mine, Hugo’s, and the majority of this board’s - the republican primaries are the de facto general election.

With the rare exception of nominating a pedophile felon like Roy Moore, the winner of the Republican primary will win the general election.

These senators or those republicans out there hoping to become senators CANNOT win those primaries without Trumpkin votes. Full stop. Period. No analysis needed.

Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
Kentucky
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Alaska
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah

Still Reliably Red for now
North Carolina
Georgia
Kansas
Missouri

Throw in Florida and Susan Collins and that’s it.

The other 65% of the country don’t fucking matter. They don’t count in their calculations because those people? CAN NEVER CAST A VOTE AGAINST THEM.

The only voters that matter in those states are republicans who vote in their states primaries.

And until the DNC gets serious about allocating money and resources and manpower to develop and grow a real Democratic Party apparatus in places like Alabama and Mississippi and Texas, the trumpkins in red states will continue to wield way more power than any other segment of the electorate.

We’re being held hostage by Dotard and his cult of diabetic, scared, racist old halfwits.

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There’s a non-zero chance scenario where the Republicans start pushing for impeachment.

If this shutdown goes as catastrophically as it could coupled with a Mueller anvil, that could be ball game.

Only takes 20 GOP Senators to throw Trump overboard.

Also, we’re acting like the GOP couldn’t sell removing Trump to the base.  They absolutely could.

These motherfuckers get away with selling bullshit like pizzagate and the same George Soros conspiracy every two years.  They can absolutely sell shitcanning Trump to the rubes with the right narrative.

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1 hour ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

It only needs to be in the political interest of the GOP senators to convict.

If Mueller comes out and nails Trump six ways to Sunday on things like espionage, obstruction, conspiracy to defraud, money laundering, bank fraud, tax fraud, graft, unregistered foreign agent,  and even seditious conspiracy...

How is that going to play in a senate trial after a house impeachment? 

How will it play?   Not a single Republican will vote to convict.  I have yet to see even a modicum of evidence that any Republican leader will do the right thing, under any circumstances whatsoever.  People keep saying it will happen - and I’d like to be proven wrong - but there is simply nothing tangible to indicate that it will.  Just people saying, “this HAS to be it!”  There have been at least a dozen incidents that should have easily supported Trump’s immediate removal from office.  And not a single one of them has said or done a thing.  Further, 50% (or more) of Americans either openly cheer on or are willing to accept (or at least look the other way at) a President who is both severely mentally ill and an obvious traitor - because it makes them feel good to think that it makes reasonable people who care about this country (“the other side,” “the libs”).  Well, color me skeptical.  I think that position is more than warranted at this juncture.  

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Brisket's overheated theory relies on the presumption that all 35% (whatever %) who back Trump do so regardless of external information.  That's not true.  What nobody knows is how many of them may turn if the story gets bad enough.  There is a spectrum out there, we just haven't any detail on it yet.  I realize it's fun to stamp one's feet and continue to stress "I'VE BEEN TELLING YOU BUT YOU AREN'T LISTENING THEY ARE ALL BOUGHT IN 100% WHY DON"T YOU LLLLLLLLLLISTEN TO ME DAMMIT?"   but that isn't necessarily a well-informed perspective.

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2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Much like a death row convict who discovers religion on the eve of his execution, I believe the Senate GOP will do whatever is necessary to protect themselves in the face of a Trump disaster.  Now, they might be the last to hold out hope for Trump (aside from family) but....they are political animals.  Survival is their number one skillset.  Disavowing Trump, even at the last possible second, shouldn't surprise no one.

Yes, if it comes to that all of them will look like spineless cowards.  But how is that different than how they look today?

Exactly.  The GOP has been making deals for the past 2 weeks. They know where their life boats are. Believe it or not they are more acutely aware of his stupidity and incompetent than the Dems.

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5 minutes ago, Jack Straw said:

How will it play?   Not a single Republican will vote to convict.  I have yet to see even a modicum of evidence that any Republican leader will do the right thing, under any circumstances whatsoever.  

The currency here is votes.  Obviously the vast majority of Republicans are hanging on because of the money flow (and a desperate attempt to disassociate from the criminal aspect) but in the end, the money doesn't flow once the votes don't.  Nobody lobbies someone who USED to hold office.

It all comes down to the base.  I get it, we can all be uber cynical and state with utter confidence that the guy who wears a "Fuck Liberals" shirt to the Trump rally isn't going to change his vote, ever, and that's almost surely true.  But there ARE at the very least a small percentage of Trump voters who will flip, or more likely, stay away from the polls, should the extent of the crimes be broad and deep enough.  This is a fact.  It might be 1% of 35%, it might be 10%, it might be 30%, but it ain't zero, no matter how loud people declare to the contrary.  This is the unknown.

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34 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

But in a lot of states - mine, Hugo’s, and the majority of this board’s - the republican primaries are the de facto general election.

With the rare exception of nominating a pedophile felon like Roy Moore, the winner of the Republican primary will win the general election.

These senators or those republicans out there hoping to become senators CANNOT win those primaries without Trumpkin votes. Full stop. Period. No analysis needed.

Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
Kentucky
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Alaska
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah

Still Reliably Red for now
North Carolina
Georgia
Kansas
Missouri

Throw in Florida and Susan Collins and that’s it.

The other 65% of the country don’t fucking matter. They don’t count in their calculations because those people? CAN NEVER CAST A VOTE AGAINST THEM.

The only voters that matter in those states are republicans who vote in their states primaries.

And until the DNC gets serious about allocating money and resources and manpower to develop and grow a real Democratic Party apparatus in places like Alabama and Mississippi and Texas, the trumpkins in red states will continue to wield way more power than any other segment of the electorate.

We’re being held hostage by Dotard and his cult of diabetic, scared, racist old halfwits.

While you're correct that they have to be worried about being primaried, they still have to worry about winning the general election as well.

Here's the 2020 Senate map:

1024px-United_States_Senate_elections%2C_2020.svg.png

I could see the senators in the following states being worried that if they vote not to convict that they'd conceivably lose with a pissed off electorate in a wave election. If I recall correctly, the Dems got +9 in November so the below could theoretically get voted out:

  • Maine (Collins) D+3
  • Colorado (Gardner) D+1
  • Iowa (Ernst) R+3
  • North Carolina (Tillis) R+3
  • Arizona (McSally) R+5
  • Georgia (Perdue) R+5
  • South Carolina (Graham) R+8
  • Texas (Cornyn) R+8

Add in Kansas (Roberts) and Tennessee (Akexander) having Republican senators retiring who don't have to worry about being reelected. That, at least, gets us to 57. Obviously, this is simplistic and doesn't take into account the specific strengths/weaknesses of individual candidates or the unique dynamics of a race with changing demographics. 

Now, consider the 2022 map and who could have time to mend fences and not worry too much that far down the line.

 

 

 

2022_US_Senate_map.png

  • Alaska (Murkowski)
  • Kansas (Moran)
  • Iowa (Grassley)
  • Wisconsin (Johnson)
  • Ohio (Portman)
  • Pennsylvania (Toomey)
  • North Carolina (Burr)
  • Florida (Rubio)

I think we could get close to 20 depending on how convincingly bad the charges are.

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Basically what it will ultimately come down to is does the country want to continue to be a democracy and a republic or does it want to become a dictatorship and an apartheid state that pledges loyalty to trump.

Despite whatever the fucking trumpkins want at the end of the day I believe the rest of the country will choose the former and continue to be a flawed democracy and republic. This may require a complete destruction off the Republican Party though. Oh well. 

Not only is trump mentally ill, but so are some of his elderly supporters. I am dealing with that first hand. It’s tough. But I will carry on. 

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19 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

Not only is trump mentally ill, but so are some of his elderly supporters. I am dealing with that first hand. It’s tough. But I will carry on. 

Flip side :  An 80+ y/o family member from Plano staying the holidays with us - US Marine, UT grad, and Korean War Vet who absolutely loathed Bill and Hillary - flatly stated “Trump is a Russian Agent.”  He opined Trump, as CIC, should be court marshaled, and bristles seeing him climb aboard Marine One.

He sited the Hoover era book “The Enemy Within” as a foreshadowing of what is happening today with Russia and Trump.

 

 

Edited by triplehorn
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Oh, I think the republicans as a national brand are finished.

Problem is, even if they become a regional party, the structure of our legislature and that pesky electoral college will give them outsized influence.

And I think some of y’all a perspective issue.

Even those of y’all who live in Texas still live in places like Austin and Dallas and other large, diverse metro areas.

I’m a liberal, feminist who lives in one of the reddest counties in Alabama.

I live in a historic neighborhood so we’re the artsy fartsy “faggy” hood in town. The gays in town live in our neighborhood. Our home was one of about 15-20 that flew rainbow flags when the Obergefell decision came down. Our neighborhood was covered with Doug Jones signs and we had a neighborhood campaign volunteer group. I try to surround myself with like minded people but it’s not easy.

The day after the senate special election I heard an actual police detective bemoaning the results and ask what man hasn’t lusted after some “teenage poon”.

At a CHILD SAFETY CONFERENCE MEETING.

I walk into physician offices with MAGA memorabilia.

I overheard a charge nurse say the black man appointed as our hospital’s CEO was done to appeal to the “Obama demographic”.

What all that rambling is meant to convey is that for a lot of us, these conversations aren’t theoretical. They’re all too real and frankly if I think too hard about what the real life consequences could be for someone like me living where I live if Trump goes down and shit goes sideways and the Trumpkins go nuts.......well, let’s just say I’m glad I know how to shoot a gun.

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Brisket's overheated theory relies on the presumption that all 35% (whatever %) who back Trump do so regardless of external information.  That's not true.  What nobody knows is how many of them may turn if the story gets bad enough.  There is a spectrum out there, we just haven't any detail on it yet.  I realize it's fun to stamp one's feet and continue to stress "I'VE BEEN TELLING YOU BUT YOU AREN'T LISTENING THEY ARE ALL BOUGHT IN 100% WHY DON"T YOU LLLLLLLLLLISTEN TO ME DAMMIT?"   but that isn't necessarily a well-informed perspective.

Sure it is. See posts right above, rightly observing that in any sane universe, any one of 100 Trump scandals and crimes would have cost him everything. But in THIS world...it costs him nothing. His support is steady and unyielding. The fact that Trump is a treasonous fuckstick is already known, and is fully baked in to the numbers already. This, no further revelations of treason will move the needle.
And further, the Trumpkins aren’t behaving differently than any other cult. It’s entirely predictable. I’m basing my read on both historical and real-time data about what cultists do.
You realize that your position presumes that something will happen which effectively never happens: cult membership comes to its senses.
Sure, a few people will wake up and change. But it will be an insignificant number.
Bama chick is dead on: in all of those states, full loyalty to trump is the only winning play. So that’s the play we’re going to see.
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4 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


It’s not a mechanism. It’s realism, and we can count voters the same way the GOP senators count em. They turn on Trump, the Trumpkins abandon them, they lose re-election.

The size of the scandal doesn’t matter. Only Trumpkins matter. They will not turn on him. So the senators will not turn on him. Simple as that. Some truths are that simple.

Yep. I used to ask myself, "don't any of those guys have it in them to see above their own interests and, I dunno, maybe act in the interests of the three hundred million Americans depending on them?"

For some stupid reason, I naively expected our politicians to be among our society's best and brightest.

Nope. Those morons are the kinds of morons that only morons elect. They're just fucking dumb. They got played so hard, just like their dipshit base.

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3 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

But in a lot of states - mine, Hugo’s, and the majority of this board’s - the republican primaries are the de facto general election.

With the rare exception of nominating a pedophile felon like Roy Moore, the winner of the Republican primary will win the general election.

These senators or those republicans out there hoping to become senators CANNOT win those primaries without Trumpkin votes. Full stop. Period. No analysis needed.

Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
Kentucky
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Alaska
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah

Still Reliably Red for now
North Carolina
Georgia
Kansas
Missouri

Throw in Florida and Susan Collins and that’s it.

The other 65% of the country don’t fucking matter. They don’t count in their calculations because those people? CAN NEVER CAST A VOTE AGAINST THEM.

The only voters that matter in those states are republicans who vote in their states primaries.

And until the DNC gets serious about allocating money and resources and manpower to develop and grow a real Democratic Party apparatus in places like Alabama and Mississippi and Texas, the trumpkins in red states will continue to wield way more power than any other segment of the electorate.

We’re being held hostage by Dotard and his cult of diabetic, scared, racist old halfwits.

SEC! SEC! SEC!

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22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:


Sure it is. See posts right above, rightly observing that in any sane universe, any one of 100 Trump scandals and crimes would have cost him everything. But in THIS world...it costs him nothing. His support is steady and unyielding. The fact that Trump is a treasonous fuckstick is already known, and is fully baked in to the numbers already. This, no further revelations of treason will move the needle.

Your entire premise is based on the assumptions that (a) none of his base flee and (b) all of those who didn't turn out in 2016 will stay away from the polls again.  That's a really stupid take.  I mean, you just have no idea -- nobody does.  If it appears that any given senator is in danger of losing his job, you can damn well bet he'll be thinking "convict" a lot sooner than you expect.

But please, continue to lecture us and for God's sake PLEASE continue to insist that you know more than anyone and that we're just bumpkins who don't have the insight you do.  It's so fucking fresh.

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5 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Your entire premise is based on the assumptions that (a) none of his base flee and (b) all of those who didn't turn out in 2016 will stay away from the polls again.  That's a really stupid take.  I mean, you just have no idea -- nobody does.  If it appears that any given senator is in danger of losing his job, you can damn well bet he'll be thinking "convict" a lot sooner than you expect.

But please, continue to lecture us and for God's sake PLEASE continue to insist that you know more than anyone and that we're just bumpkins who don't have the insight you do.  It's so fucking fresh.

His base ain't fleeing.  But he will get fucked in 2020 if still around, as the benefit of the doubt vote will not vote for him again.   What we really need is a good bird flu to take out the olds.   It'll take me out too, but so worth it for the country.

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Your entire premise is based on the assumptions that (a) none of his base flee and (b) all of those who didn't turn out in 2016 will stay away from the polls again.  That's a really stupid take.  I mean, you just have no idea -- nobody does.  If it appears that any given senator is in danger of losing his job, you can damn well bet he'll be thinking "convict" a lot sooner than you expect.
But please, continue to lecture us and for God's sake PLEASE continue to insist that you know more than anyone and that we're just bumpkins who don't have the insight you do.  It's so fucking fresh.

I’m the Mentos of pessimism.
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2 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Oh, I think the republicans as a national brand are finished.

Problem is, even if they become a regional party, the structure of our legislature and that pesky electoral college will give them outsized influence.

And I think some of y’all a perspective issue.

Even those of y’all who live in Texas still live in places like Austin and Dallas and other large, diverse metro areas.

I’m a liberal, feminist who lives in one of the reddest counties in Alabama.

I live in a historic neighborhood so we’re the artsy fartsy “faggy” hood in town. The gays in town live in our neighborhood. Our home was one of about 15-20 that flew rainbow flags when the Obergefell decision came down. Our neighborhood was covered with Doug Jones signs and we had a neighborhood campaign volunteer group. I try to surround myself with like minded people but it’s not easy.

The day after the senate special election I heard an actual police detective bemoaning the results and ask what man hasn’t lusted after some “teenage poon”.

At a CHILD SAFETY CONFERENCE MEETING.

I walk into physician offices with MAGA memorabilia.

I overheard a charge nurse say the black man appointed as our hospital’s CEO was done to appeal to the “Obama demographic”.

What all that rambling is meant to convey is that for a lot of us, these conversations aren’t theoretical. They’re all too real and frankly if I think too hard about what the real life consequences could be for someone like me living where I live if Trump goes down and shit goes sideways and the Trumpkins go nuts.......well, let’s just say I’m glad I know how to shoot a gun.

These conversations aren't theoretical for us either. Yeah, most Surlies live in big, diverse bluish-purplish metro areas, but we (at least I) come from the scattered rural parts of the state. And, thanks to family visits, social media, or whatever, we're still confronted by the absolute shittiness of the views held by close family members and friends that we grew up with - especially around the holidays. But, I'll grant you, we don't see it every day among current peers in daily interactions. But that going home thing...fuck, it can be a shock to the system. It leaves me wondering why I wasn't infected by the hate. 

My high school clique was made up by the "freaks and the geeks." We smoked dope, drank, and listened to the Violent Femmes, the Cure, Dead Milkmen, They Might Be Giants together (We were small town Texas emos before small town Texas emos were cool). And, now, about half of the group is a bunch of Trump-supporting assholes when it comes to politics. It's fucking heartbreaking how they've become so hateful toward the outcasts of our society, especially because our group gelled solely because none of us really fit in with any of the existing cliques.

I'll tell you this though. When talking about Trump over beers with a couple of buddies who stayed in my hometown for the oil jobs (maybe that's their problem), they said they would be "shocked, shocked I tell ya" if Trump were found to have been complicit with Russia and they'd stop supporting him. On the other hand, I posted the creepy prophetic Trackdown clip about the conman named Trump visiting an Old West town and the responses I got from the same people were: "Mister President, build that wall." and "They're here illegally. By definition, that makes them criminals."

I really don't know what to say, but I do think there's a breaking point with some of them.  

38 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Don’t kid yourself - there’s a lot of Big 12 and ACC up in that list too.

And a smattering of Big Ten.

 

SEC!SEC!SEC! (the Deep South) is ground zero for our national ills. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and parts of the Midwest are on the current borderlands but still infected by the poison. Virginia, thanks to geography, has now fallen into a different sphere entirely.

Edited by bolverk
cleaning up
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4 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Brisket's overheated theory relies on the presumption that all 35% (whatever %) who back Trump do so regardless of external information.  That's not true.  What nobody knows is how many of them may turn if the story gets bad enough.  There is a spectrum out there, we just haven't any detail on it yet.  I realize it's fun to stamp one's feet and continue to stress "I'VE BEEN TELLING YOU BUT YOU AREN'T LISTENING THEY ARE ALL BOUGHT IN 100% WHY DON"T YOU LLLLLLLLLLISTEN TO ME DAMMIT?"   but that isn't necessarily a well-informed perspective.

And toss in the increasing problems that trade wars/tariffs/etc. are going to bring.  And the shutdown.

These people are going to be studied for years to come.  They appear to have been MIA between 2008-2016, because they couldn't keep Obama out of the WH, even against a war hero.

They are a powerful little block of voters as long as they remain together, but even just chipping away 10%-15% (even if it's just them staying home) would flip quite a few states.

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You know, that little Russian and NRA connection..speaking of Senators.

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2019/01/nra-republicans-campaign-ads-senate-josh-hawley/

Quote

Documents Show NRA and Republican Candidates Coordinated Ads in Key Senate Races

The National Rifle Association appears to have illegally coordinated its political advertising with Republican candidates in at least three recent high-profile US Senate races, according to Federal Communications Commission records. In Senate races in Missouri and Montana in 2018 and North Carolina in 2016, the gun group’s advertising blitzes on behalf of GOP candidates Josh Hawley, Matt Rosendale, and Richard Burr were authorized by the very same media consultant that the candidates themselves used—an apparent violation of laws designed to prevent independent groups from synchronizing their efforts with political campaigns.

In December, the Trace and Mother Jones reported on a similar pattern of coordination between the NRA and Donald Trump’s 2016 presidential campaign. In that case, Trump and the NRA hired affiliates of the same company—National Media Research, Planning and Placement—to direct their ad spending. Employees of that firm, operating under different corporate identities, placed ads for both Trump and the NRA on television stations across the country, with the apparent goal of reinforcing each other’s message.

Representatives of National Media, operating under the name Red Eagle Media, also bought ads on behalf of the NRA in support of some of the group’s preferred Senate candidates, and simultaneously bought ads for those Senate candidates while acting as a supposedly separate entity called American Media & Advocacy Group (AMAG). In at least 10 instances across the Missouri, Montana, and North Carolina races, FCC records show that ad purchases for both the NRA and the Senate campaigns were authorized by National Media chief financial officer Jon Ferrell.

Campaign finance laws bar outside groups from sharing any election-related information—including advertising strategy—with the candidates they support. While it is not illegal for independent groups and campaigns to use the same vendors, the Federal Election Commission requires consultants to prevent staffers from sharing information, usually through the creation of internal “firewalls.”

 

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4 hours ago, bolverk said:

While you're correct that they have to be worried about being primaried, they still have to worry about winning the general election as well.

Here's the 2020 Senate map:

1024px-United_States_Senate_elections%2C_2020.svg.png

I could see the senators in the following states being worried that if they vote not to convict that they'd conceivably lose with a pissed off electorate in a wave election. If I recall correctly, the Dems got +9 in November so the below could theoretically get voted out:

  • Maine (Collins) D+3
  • Colorado (Gardner) D+1
  • Iowa (Ernst) R+3
  • North Carolina (Tillis) R+3
  • Arizona (McSally) R+5
  • Georgia (Perdue) R+5
  • South Carolina (Graham) R+8
  • Texas (Cornyn) R+8

Add in Kansas (Roberts) and Tennessee (Akexander) having Republican senators retiring who don't have to worry about being reelected. That, at least, gets us to 57. Obviously, this is simplistic and doesn't take into account the specific strengths/weaknesses of individual candidates or the unique dynamics of a race with changing demographics. 

Now, consider the 2022 map and who could have time to mend fences and not worry too much that far down the line.

 

 

 

2022_US_Senate_map.png

  • Alaska (Murkowski)
  • Kansas (Moran)
  • Iowa (Grassley)
  • Wisconsin (Johnson)
  • Ohio (Portman)
  • Pennsylvania (Toomey)
  • North Carolina (Burr)
  • Florida (Rubio)

I think we could get close to 20 depending on how convincingly bad the charges are.

Don't forget DC and PR statehood in 2021.

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SEC!SEC!SEC! (the Deep South) is ground zero for our national ills. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and parts of the Midwest are on the current borderlands but still infected by the poison. Virginia, thanks to geography, has now fallen into a different sphere entirely.


About 40% of the country live separate lives, consume different media media, and live separate truths. Big chunks of my family included. They aren’t coming back. They shouldn’t vote (willful ignorance) but will. My kid will see pictures of his Uncle in Maga gear 20 years from now and think “wtf?” Yet My brother will keep fucking that chicken until he’s dead though. He will twist inward into a worse version of himself and lol at the libs all the way to the grave. He’s become a dumb troll already.

It sucks. Because when we slide over the side of my boat, and start a long wade on a shoreline together, I forget his stupidities regarding politics, and we just exist. It’s familiar and nice. And maybe I let him catch one extra red to boost his ego for a brief moment before his white privilege sets like the sun.
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7 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

There’s a non-zero chance scenario where the Republicans start pushing for impeachment.

If this shutdown goes as catastrophically as it could coupled with a Mueller anvil, that could be ball game.

Only takes 20 GOP Senators to throw Trump overboard.

Also, we’re acting like the GOP couldn’t sell removing Trump to the base.  They absolutely could.

These motherfuckers get away with selling bullshit like pizzagate and the same George Soros conspiracy every two years.  They can absolutely sell shitcanning Trump to the rubes with the right narrative.

It's almost certain they have some dirt on him. DC shit rivers flow two ways. For some reason this puts me in mind of my primary tinfoil hat theory -- most on this site agree that A) the 2016 Okie State game was rigged; and B) That T. Boone Pickens rigged it. I have long that Red McCombs rigged it because he had already decided that Charlie Strong was not the corch he wanted. (Whether or not he was correct is another debate, and sorry for footballing up the CR.)

The GOP can and could and should rig the game against their own leader if they believe it is in their collective self-interest to do so. They just don't want to have to vote on it until they believe the time is right. Trump already got them their Supremes and the tax cut -- his usefulness is at an end. He is only a pest, a hindrance, a millstone around their necks at this point. 

3 hours ago, bolverk said:

 

SEC!SEC!SEC! (the Deep South) is ground zero for our national ills. Texas, Florida, North Carolina, and parts of the Midwest are on the current borderlands but still infected by the poison. Virginia, thanks to geography, has now fallen into a different sphere entirely.

We Texans give ourselves too much credit for being more different from SEC!SEC!SEC!-land than we actually are. When we elect a statewide Dem politician, then we can talk. Yes, we are trending towards purple, but the progress is turtle-slow, and hell, Louisiana has a Dem governor and Bama has a Dem senator. 

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8 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

But in a lot of states - mine, Hugo’s, and the majority of this board’s - the republican primaries are the de facto general election.

With the rare exception of nominating a pedophile felon like Roy Moore, the winner of the Republican primary will win the general election.

These senators or those republicans out there hoping to become senators CANNOT win those primaries without Trumpkin votes. Full stop. Period. No analysis needed.

Alabama
Mississippi
Tennessee
Arkansas
Texas
Kentucky
South Carolina
Oklahoma
Alaska
Montana
Nebraska
North Dakota
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah

Still Reliably Red for now
North Carolina
Georgia
Kansas
Missouri

Throw in Florida and Susan Collins and that’s it.

The other 65% of the country don’t fucking matter. They don’t count in their calculations because those people? CAN NEVER CAST A VOTE AGAINST THEM.

The only voters that matter in those states are republicans who vote in their states primaries.

And until the DNC gets serious about allocating money and resources and manpower to develop and grow a real Democratic Party apparatus in places like Alabama and Mississippi and Texas, the trumpkins in red states will continue to wield way more power than any other segment of the electorate.

We’re being held hostage by Dotard and his cult of diabetic, scared, racist old halfwits.

This is the pub kryptonite.  This 35% in the small and red states will keep an approximate 50 pub senators in their seats for the rest of our lifetimes.  Pub senators have no rational fear of getting voted out, except for being primaried by an even more horrific nazi racist piece of shit.

And that more or less permanent situation is why we won't "get through this".

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45 minutes ago, NBMisha said:

This is the pub kryptonite.  This 35% in the small and red states will keep an approximate 50 pub senators in their seats for the rest of our lifetimes.  Pub senators have no rational fear of getting voted out, except for being primaried by an even more horrific nazi racist piece of shit.

And that more or less permanent situation is why we won't "get through this".

After demographic changes expected over the next 5 years the Republican senatorial base drops from 50 to closer to 40, so no, this situation is not permanent. 40 out of 104, assuming 2 new states, will mean that in many congresses Republicans will not be able to block legislation from reaching the floor.

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Ray, I so hope you are right.

What are the thresholds for new state admittance?

Can you offer some analytical meat to your demographic conclusion?   My impression, for example, is that the Idaho's, Montana's, Dakota's of the world are not changing.  I will believe Texas when I see it.  Florida is too wierd.  These are impressions.  Thanks in advance.

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4 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

We Texans give ourselves too much credit for being more different from SEC!SEC!SEC!-land than we actually are. When we elect a statewide Dem politician, then we can talk. Yes, we are trending towards purple, but the progress is turtle-slow, and hell, Louisiana has a Dem governor and Bama has a Dem senator. 

 

Oh, I know we're not out of the woods yet. The Pine Curtain and aggy are proof of that, but I think I can see a clearing yonder.

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About 40% of the country live separate lives, consume different media media, and live separate truths. Big chunks of my family included. They aren’t coming back. They shouldn’t vote (willful ignorance) but will. My kid will see pictures of his Uncle in Maga gear 20 years from now and think “wtf?” Yet My brother will keep fucking that chicken until he’s dead though. He will twist inward into a worse version of himself and lol at the libs all the way to the grave. He’s become a dumb troll already.

It sucks. Because when we slide over the side of my boat, and start a long wade on a shoreline together, I forget his stupidities regarding politics, and we just exist. It’s familiar and nice. And maybe I let him catch one extra red to boost his ego for a brief moment before his white privilege sets like the sun.


Read this as a Bruce Springsteen song
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11 hours ago, triplehorn said:

correction, fwiw, that Hoover era book that parallels today was:

RD5wCwAAQBAJ?fife=w100-h150

goddammit i just spent 10 minutes looking looking for The Enemy Within.

lulz

I was all like "Damn thing must be rare.  I can't find mention of it."

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19 minutes ago, Ten Bears said:

goddammit i just spent 10 minutes looking looking for The Enemy Within.

lulz

I was all like "Damn thing must be rare.  I can't find mention of it."

I just read through reviews of the book on Amazon.  It's interesting that people spanning all political stripes seem to identify with the existence of Checkist tactics being used to infiltrate our Republic, even if there likely is some gross misattribution of how it is manifesting.  It's also important to keep in mind that, today, Russian infiltration and interference is equal opportunity on the left and right - i.e. Jill Stein, Bernie Sanders (the true extent remains to be seen) on the left, and unfortunately Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) who has some now familiar red flags.

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13 hours ago, Bama Chick said:

Oh, I think the republicans as a national brand are finished.
 

While I feel like you and I are generally on the same page on a lot of this, 47 million people voted for them just two months ago.   47 million people actively support an ongoing criminal enterprise.  That doesn't feel finished to me at all.  

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And they are multiplying. Ever notice how stupid people tend to be the ones having more kids?

Republicans are going nowhere. This crop may be done soon but there will be another crop after them and the R base will be happy to tell us how  this new young group are trustworthy loyal Americans now that they’ve trained the swamp. 

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17 hours ago, triplehorn said:

 Said it before: the biggest wild card is Congressional GOP leadership getting indicted and/or a RICO charges for money laundering rubles getting unsealed against the RNC.  Did anyone forget about the Feds raiding Strategic Research Group in Maryland back in that pivotal Spring of ‘17? That raid was about organizational crime, not individual.  

Anyone think Mitch McConnell getting perp walked won’t change the Senate tune ?  It sounds unimaginable, but Trump isn’t alone in this.  I’m convinced the conduct of GOP leadership is driven by fear of their complicit corruption being exposed more than fear of Dotard’s loyal base of suckers.

Expose that and it’s over.

This.  I think McConnell, Graham, Cruz and others are mired in illegal campaign contributions and violations (Cambridge Analytic) and know there is a good chance they will be exposed.  Their only chance is to hide behind the Trump scandal and hope that they can cut a side deal.  The longer this can be drug out, the more exhausted people are going to be with it.  They just want it over. 

This whole thing is like a big bonfire, and Trump and his family/admin are tied to the center stake.  The guilty GOP leadership are the rats hidden in the firewood.  They are letting Mueller and team heap and heap more wood onto the pile.  Then when the thing is lit, they hope to scurry out while no one is looking, and if a few people do notice, they will ignore them/let them go in order to concentrate on the main event, dotard and his admin.   Maybe they are also hoping somehow the base will rescue the whole thing and form a circle around the pyre to prevent anyone from lighting it. 

Fitting analogy for dotard's WITCH HUNT!

14 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

We’re also ignoring the obvious.

If Trump has nothing to worry about, why is he scared shitless? 

He's not scared, he is angrily fighting to defend his honor and his country from the libs, deep state and fake news. 

Oh wait, that is how Born to Run's brother (and my own) is ignoring the obvious.

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10 minutes ago, Your Mom said:

And they are multiplying. Ever notice how stupid people tend to be the ones having more kids?

Republicans are going nowhere. This crop may be done soon but there will be another crop after them and the R base will be happy to tell us how  this new young group are trustworthy loyal Americans now that they’ve trained the swamp. 

The key is education.  Educate those new kids, give them a different, honest perspective against what they hear at home.   This is why we no longer teach civics or government in HS anymore.   This is why the GOP is trying to cripple public schools in favor of private (usually faith based) schools.    It is not that these kids are stupid, they are just uneducated, and usually brainwashed, because their parents are from the same system. 

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5 minutes ago, pyrohornIII said:

think McConnell, Graham, Cruz and others are mired in illegal campaign contributions and violations (Cambridge Analytic) and know there is a good chance they will be exposed.

This is one of those theories I want to believe but the realism in me says nothing comes of this.  These guys aren’t idiots like Trump, they cover their ass.  

We all know they’re up to their eyeballs in corrupt money but the problem is it’s not a crime they are liable for.   They made it this way by design. 

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11 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

This is one of those theories I want to believe but the realism in me says nothing comes of this.  These guys aren’t idiots like Trump, they cover their ass.  

We all know they’re up to their eyeballs in corrupt money but the problem is it’s not a crime they are liable for.   They made it this way by design. 

Agree, but maybe through all this their manipulations of the law, just like gerrymandering will be exposed and they will be held accountable for it.  They might never serve  time, but they could be ousted from office in real cleaning of the swamp that will include some serious campaign and election reform, as well as term limits.    I honestly think Mueller has enough on them to expose some of this charlatanism.  And hopefully everyone will be pissed enough to run them out of office too.   Though, according to my own hypothesis, they won't be. 

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2 hours ago, Jack Straw said:

While I feel like you and I are generally on the same page on a lot of this, 47 million people voted for them just two months ago.   47 million people actively support an ongoing criminal enterprise.  That doesn't feel finished to me at all.  

Those 47 million couldn’t keep a black Muslim, atheist, Marxist, Socialist, Communist Kenyan born in Chicago, Hawaii, Indonesia named Barrack Hussein Obama from winning the White House twice, including a win against a Vietnam war hero.  

Of course those are people have no problem with Vietnam POWs being mocked by a draft-dodger, so....

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9 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

We Texans give ourselves too much credit for being more different from SEC!SEC!SEC!-land than we actually are. When we elect a statewide Dem politician, then we can talk. Yes, we are trending towards purple, but the progress is turtle-slow, and hell, Louisiana has a Dem governor and Bama has a Dem senator. 

Texas did become a minority-majority state and Anglos dropped below 45% faster than was predicted (anywhere from 5-15 years faster depending on who you’re reading). 

Hell, 5 years ago I would not have believed Williamson County was on its way to being flipped.  

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8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Texas did become a minority-majority state and Anglos dropped below 45% faster than was predicted (anywhere from 5-15 years faster depending on who you’re reading). 

Hell, 5 years ago I would not have believed Williamson County was on its way to being flipped.  

Conservative Texans are not having many kids or at least not at the same rate as non-conservatives.   They’ve had a good run, but the days are limited for the Texas gop.  They’ve not done tomorrow but within a decade.

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