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2022 Senate Elections


Ghost of LL

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This is where the evangelical trumpers crucify Ryan for using the word “ass” several times all over the Ohio tv market despite the fact that Trump said it several times a few weeks ago in an even worse context.

MAGA fans defy logic and dignity. They get off on that shit. 

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Welp, Ryan isn't gonna win over any moderate Republicans to his side of the ballot.  But he sounded and looked midwestern solid and Vance, even hitting all the proper buzzwords, looked and sounded ineffectual.  As these clips make the rounds in the coming days, many thousands of Ohio Republicans are gonna think, "Meh, I ain't voting Democrat no way.  But Vance seems like a pussy...I ain't gonna bother voting if my choice is a Lib and a pussy." and just stay home.  Best case, Ryan won over 5,000 moderates but just convinced 45,000 MAGA voters in Ohio to just sit this one out lest they be associated with a gaping vance vag

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11 minutes ago, YGIFS said:

Welp, Ryan isn't gonna win over any moderate Republicans to his side of the ballot.  But he sounded and looked midwestern solid and Vance, even hitting all the proper buzzwords, looked and sounded ineffectual.  As these clips make the rounds in the coming days, many thousands of Ohio Republicans are gonna think, "Meh, I ain't voting Democrat no way.  But Vance seems like a pussy...I ain't gonna bother voting if my choice is a Lib and a pussy." and just stay home.  Best case, Ryan won over 5,000 moderates but just convinced 45,000 MAGA voters in Ohio to just sit this one out lest they be associated with a gaping vance vag

There are no moderate republicans and they can’t be won over, it’s a lost cause, the best you can hope for is that they don’t vote 

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This kind of manhandling is what wins elections and how you scare these people back in their holes. It’s not just the content. It’s the style. You don’t beat a bully with facts and logic. You either shame them or overpower them. Ryan did all three, but it’s the second two that count. 
 

why can’t Beto do this? Oh
 

 

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2 hours ago, Zonahorn said:

Not sure what the deal with Emerson is this cycle. They've been R-leaning

They've been dubbed Memerson for their polls.  Not as bad as Trafalgar just basically making shit up by polling the same group of people over and over again, but yeah. 

Emerson showing you losing support this late is a bad sign for WALKER (ugh, W names). I've felt like, since the abortion stuff, the likeliest outcomes of this race in order are:

Runoff with Warnock winning

Outright Warnock win


Runoff with Walker winning

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Walker outright winning

Edited by Js1
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GA feels like a race where a runoff very much favors Warnock, because Kemp is seemingly going to drag Walker into the runoff if Warnock doesn't win outright, but then GOP turnout drops like the last GA Senate runoffs.  If this year didn't have a governor's race attached to it, I think Walker would be cooked. 

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5 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

 

Honestly, this isn't a bad thing.  In some places, the national party is so reviled and toxic that it's better to let them operate fully independent if they can afford it.  Biden is not popular everywhere, so keeping him away from some races is fine.  Joe Biden is not Donald Trump, he doesn't demand fealty and adoring crowds from every corner of the country (like Trump showing up in places that the candidate running downballot then lost). 

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13 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I could give two fucks about polls right now.  Dobbs is skewing everything.  Polls can't account for that.

The Dems aren’t exploiting the issue and scaring every women out there, they are really doing a piss poor job about the Dobbs issue 

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1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

The Dems aren’t exploiting the issue and scaring every women out there, they are really doing a piss poor job about the Dobbs issue 

That may be, but I have to think that the vast majority of women made up their minds the second that decision came down.

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3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

That may be, but I have to think that the vast majority of women made up their minds the second that decision came down.

People always need a reminder and with the stakes this high, you run the story down their throats so they won’t forget it for the next 10 years 

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Haha holy shit, give me your family money lol

Salt Lake City and the suburbs north to Ogden and south to Provo on I15 has become a haven for tech workers leaving Seattle and San Francisco for the outdoors lifestyle that don’t care for Denver. Nov 8th is gonna be fun, lots of tight assholes on Election Day.

At what point do we go to immamac with our terms for Election Day and the ads?

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Suffolk (finally a not right wing aligned pollster) has CCM up 46-44 in Nevada. The big part of Laxalt’s jump (7 points) is GOP coming home, like in PA. 

Edit on more thoughts:

Laxalt got 45% statewide in 2018.  He was never at 38% like the last Suffolk poll.  Again, it wasn't "undecideds moving towards Laxalt" it's Republicans coming home.

Same with PA - Oz in the high 30s was never realistic when Barletta got 42.8% in 2018.  These candidates have a pretty hard floor, it would take a 2008 or 2010 style election to kick them below those floors. 

Edited by Js1
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Besides Suffolk today, we've had:

Trafalgar (lol) with Warnock +1 (46-45) and Emerson (lol) with Warnock +2 (48-46) and AJC/Georgia News with Warnock +3 (46-43)
PPP with Budd +1 (46-45)
Cygnal with Vance +2 (46-44)
Marist with Bennett +7 (48-41)
Deseret News/University of Utah with Lee +5 over indie Sausage and Egg McMullin (42-37)

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1 hour ago, Gengs1 said:

Probably a good decision to have this interview.  He's agree to a debate on 10/25 and he needs to start setting expectations around his speech and the need for closed-captioning.  This shouldn't matter.  But neither should race, gender, sexual orientation and a host of other shit that does affect voting. 

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