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Posted
1 minute ago, Gil Bang said:

the fed is losing credibility?   I would argue the exact opposite.  The fed is doing their thing against extreme political pressure.  They're ignoring the static. 

Agree- sorry I wasn’t clear. If the FED succumbs to the pressure, I meant, or the new chair is seen as a rubber stamp, or some hack is appointed to replace Kugler and then Powell is forced out of his governorship before it ends in ‘28, but after his term as chair ends in ‘26, etc. 

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Posted

Saw yesterday where the median home price is 57% higher than the national median income. I am out of pocket right now, so I can’t look up the article. But that is the all time record. 
 

CHIEF

Posted
On 8/14/2025 at 2:40 PM, Captainant said:

I did a quick search and the spread is bigger than that

https://www.statista.com/chart/34534/median-house-price-versus-median-income-in-the-us/

image.thumb.jpeg.3343da29f45b5a9127730b1612858e38.jpeg

Somewhere you have to factor in the fact that during those 40 years builders started building McMansions instead of two and three bedroom houses - because no one would buy them.   Everyone can afford the houses that I grew up in, but who the hell wants to live in a house with two or three bedrooms and one or two baths?

I totally get the tiny house trend.  And happiness is being able to meet your needs and still do fun things after your nut is paid for - and not go deeply into debt.  Not needing a fortune in income just to meet your basic food and shelter needs (because of self-inflicted over-purchasing) is far from impossible if you set your goals more realistically.

It is interesting that the older I get - having things that used to be seen as extravagant are now deemed to be necessities.  

Posted
2 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Somewhere you have to factor in the fact that during those 40 years builders started building McMansions instead of two and three bedroom houses - because no one would buy them.   Everyone can afford the houses that I grew up in, but who the hell wants to live in a house with two or three bedrooms and one or two baths?

I totally get the tiny house trend.  And happiness is being able to meet your needs and still do fun things after your nut is paid for - and not go deeply into debt.  Not needing a fortune in income just to meet your basic food and shelter needs (because of self-inflicted over-purchasing) is far from impossible if you set your goals more realistically.

It is interesting that the older I get - having things that used to be seen as extravagant are now deemed to be necessities.  

The huge outlier is the pandemic. House prices almost doubled between 2019 to 2020-2021, in my market. Free government cheese, 3.5% interest rates, and reduced expenses of not showing up to your job every day artificially inflated the market. We are seeing a reckoning. My mother has been a realtor for over 50 years, and has still never seen anything like that time period.

I'm thinking about building spec homes again. They will probably be on sub $20k lots, water available, aerobic septic, barndominium kits on slabs, and spec interiors. I can do this, in Granbury for under $200k with not much margin, but they will all be sold before I complete them. Not something I have to do, I can wait it out for the first movement of interest rates decreasing. But, to be honest, I'm bored, and young couples, around here, need a break.

CHIEF

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Posted

What do you guys think about the more recent move into housing by private equity?  

I read something last year for example in the Temple area North of Austin, that roughly 1/3 of all single family housing purchases were corporate rather than individual. This seems much higher to me than historically, and I would think would pressure prices upwards at the bottom end of the spectrum. Folks have been buying and accumulating rental properties for years.  But I never recall it being in this high percentages outside of maybe after the S&L Crash?

Seems like the majority of the homes were in that middle to lower class price affordability range.  

I have no access to the privy data some of you guys have.  Just wondering what sort of influences increased corporate entry into the marketplace?  I could point to Zillow's failed buy/remodel/flip model as a failed corporate example.  But I am talking about buy/hold/rent increased percentages in aggregate.  Which I am ASSUMING is correct.

Please correct me if I am wrong?

 

Posted
2 minutes ago, horn4life said:

What do you guys think about the more recent move into housing by private equity?  

I read something last year for example in the Temple area North of Austin, that roughly 1/3 of all single family housing purchases were corporate rather than individual. This seems much higher to me than historically, and I would think would pressure prices upwards at the bottom end of the spectrum. Folks have been buying and accumulating rental properties for years.  But I never recall it being in this high percentages outside of maybe after the S&L Crash?

Seems like the majority of the homes were in that middle to lower class price affordability range.  

I have no access to the privy data some of you guys have.  Just wondering what sort of influences increased corporate entry into the marketplace?  I could point to Zillow's failed buy/remodel/flip model as a failed corporate example.  But I am talking about buy/hold/rent increased percentages in aggregate.  Which I am ASSUMING is correct.

Please correct me if I am wrong?

 

I think it spells bad news for housing prices stability.  High likelihood of panic sale liquidation at SOME point brought on by some black swan.  That could be 2 months from now or 10 years. 

Or perhaps the government gets there first and forces PE/VC entities to liquidate their positions as that is a political sentiment gaining popularity.

 

Posted
26 minutes ago, horn4life said:

What do you guys think about the more recent move into housing by private equity?  

I read something last year for example in the Temple area North of Austin, that roughly 1/3 of all single family housing purchases were corporate rather than individual. This seems much higher to me than historically, and I would think would pressure prices upwards at the bottom end of the spectrum. Folks have been buying and accumulating rental properties for years.  But I never recall it being in this high percentages outside of maybe after the S&L Crash?

Seems like the majority of the homes were in that middle to lower class price affordability range.  

I have no access to the privy data some of you guys have.  Just wondering what sort of influences increased corporate entry into the marketplace?  I could point to Zillow's failed buy/remodel/flip model as a failed corporate example.  But I am talking about buy/hold/rent increased percentages in aggregate.  Which I am ASSUMING is correct.

Please correct me if I am wrong?

What are you talking about? Owning large swaths of property and extracting wealth from the poors that live on it is the basis of every modern healthy economic system. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Royalfan5 said:

I'm glad that looks exactly like I would imagine a Bill Walton house would look like. 

Why are all the feet on the furniture fucked up?

 

 

Sorry couldn't resist..

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