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Posted
18 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

there is a decent chance tariffs don't produce significant inflation over time. Why? Because it slows the economy and is a one time price adjustment. But the Fed just raised their inflation outlook for the year in their meeting. Why? It's complex, but basically it would be because we drop into a recession, thus the deficit gets even way way worse than it already is, and the excess money printing causes inflation

Good summary, agree. 

Posted

This is an interesting and scary outlook on the U.S. debt and it's impact on interest rates and inflation. And just to be clear, the current Republican administration, and the Democrat administration before it, implemented and are implementing disastrous fiscal policies to address the issue effectively. We as citizens have got to get off team Red and team Blue and force our politicians to get on team America. 

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Posted
50 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Oh man, Trump is gonna lose it on that one.  He wants tariffs AND lower rates and the FED is saying he can't have both (right now at least).

Well, Doddard says that JPow is a “dumb man”…who was appointed as Fed Chair by <checks notes> Trump - so what did he expect? 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Well, Doddard says that JPow is a “dumb man”…who was appointed as Fed Chair by <checks notes> Trump - so what did he expect? 

It’s weird how so many (all?) of his appointments who were the best candidates at the time turn out to be dumb and crazy 

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Posted
On 6/24/2025 at 6:52 AM, Dbeasy said:

This is an interesting and scary outlook on the U.S. debt and it's impact on interest rates and inflation. And just to be clear, the current Republican administration, and the Democrat administration before it, implemented and are implementing disastrous fiscal policies to address the issue effectively. We as citizens have got to get off team Red and team Blue and force our politicians to get on team America. 

Raise taxes (LTCG, ordinary income, dividends, etc), eliminate the SS cap and stop looting programs for the wealthy.  Get defense spending in line, strategic but not bloated. Problem solved. 

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Posted
Just now, troph said:

Raise taxes (LTCG, ordinary income, dividends, etc), eliminate the SS cap and stop looting programs for the wealthy.  Get defense spending in line, strategic but not bloated. Problem solved. 

Yup

Posted
2 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

"Core" PCE came in a 2.7% annual (2.6% expected).  April revised up from 2.5% to 2.6%.

The only way to deal with the debt problem, besides the actions Brisket listed is to inflate away the debt over 10-15 years. To do that requires inflation to run ~3+ percent annually over that period, just like after WW2. So Powell will get replaced, the new Fed will drop rates low, inflation will creep up to 3-3.5, everyone will complain, but the politicians will secretly be happy with it. Middle class and the poor will get hit the hardest and the wealthier will hardly notice because they control so much of the world’s wealth now they can buy anything they want 10x over. 

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

The only way to deal with the debt problem, besides the actions Brisket listed is to inflate away the debt over 10-15 years. To do that requires inflation to run ~3+ percent annually over that period, just like after WW2. So Powell will get replaced, the new Fed will drop rates low, inflation will creep up to 3-3.5, everyone will complain, but the politicians will secretly be happy with it. Middle class and the poor will get hit the hardest and the wealthier will hardly notice because they control so much of the world’s wealth now they can buy anything they want 10x over. 

doesn't sound like a red team blue team issue.  i hear you, but the right answer is raise taxes significantly, cut defense spending.  

better get all your money into equities, it will be the only inflation protection available.  value of cash will erode while you watch.

Edited by troph
Posted
1 hour ago, troph said:

doesn't sound like a red team blue team issue.  i hear you, but the right answer is raise taxes significantly, cut defense spending.  

better get all your money into equities, it will be the only inflation protection available.  value of cash will erode while you watch.

I’m not suggesting either/or.  You have to do both Brisket actions AND inflate away the debt, because the rising interest payments are swamping the budget. Interest payments are now higher than the defense budget. 

Posted
8 hours ago, troph said:

doesn't sound like a red team blue team issue.  i hear you, but the right answer is raise taxes significantly, cut defense spending.  

better get all your money into equities, it will be the only inflation protection available.  value of cash will erode while you watch.

I like how you say it’s not a red team blue team issue but your solution is raise taxes and cut defense spending. 😝 Please get serious. 

The solution is cut all spending. But that is too painful so it will never happen. Nothing stops this train. Protect yourself how you see fit. 

Posted
6 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I’m not suggesting either/or.  You have to do both Brisket actions AND inflate away the debt, because the rising interest payments are swamping the budget. Interest payments are now higher than the defense budget. 

I’m sorry what are “brisket actions” ? I scrolled back a couple pages and didn’t see him vomit on this thread. 

Posted
9 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

I like how you say it’s not a red team blue team issue but your solution is raise taxes and cut defense spending. 😝 Please get serious. 

The solution is cut all spending. But that is too painful so it will never happen. Nothing stops this train. Protect yourself how you see fit. 

Lol wake me up the first time defense spending is cut.  Fucking bullshit, like we always expect from your new names.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, burnt beanz said:

I like how you say it’s not a red team blue team issue but your solution is raise taxes and cut defense spending. 😝 Please get serious. 

The solution is cut all spending. But that is too painful so it will never happen. Nothing stops this train. Protect yourself how you see fit. 

Ok, let’s phase out SS benefits entirely for the wealthy. There … cut entitlements, cut defense smartly (war is changing we can spend less and more strategically and still remain the strongman), raise taxes on the wealthy, remove the SS cap, etc etc. 

all of the above.

any attempt to cut expenses as the way out of this simply won’t work. It especially won’t work if defense isn’t on the chopping block.

raise revenue, cut the largest two budget categories, and do so in a way that doesn’t leave the poorest who need entitlements the most hungry and destitute. 

math isn’t red or blue, it’s just facts.

Edited by troph
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Posted
9 minutes ago, burnt beanz said:

Social security and Medicare?

Entitlements and defense. Don’t be dense, there is NO way out of this without increasing revenue and cutting defense. None whatsoever.

Posted
11 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Lets cut all LGBTQIAQRSPUV spending first as a good faith measure so Kamala can heal

Congrats you saved something like .00000000000001% of the deficit. But the performative part is 💯 for those who can’t do math. 

Posted
1 hour ago, troph said:

Ok, let’s phase out SS benefits entirely for the wealthy. There … cut entitlements, cut defense smartly (war is changing we can spend less and more strategically and still remain the strongman), raise taxes on the wealthy, remove the SS cap, etc etc. 

This is all correct, and 0% politically viable. 

Unfortunately representative government is our achilles heel. A pent-umvirate of diverse Surly posters could literally steer this thing more true., while all probably trying to kill each other. Maybe time should be a flat circle. 

Posted
12 hours ago, troph said:

Ok, let’s phase out SS benefits entirely for the wealthy

I have no problem with means testing.

That also means that if that rich person loses everything - then they have access again to their Social Security retirement benefits.  

The program was supposed to keep people from starving and being homeless in their old age.  It was not meant as extra income for wealthy people to pay their country club dues and make stock investments.

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