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Tell me what's happening in Afganistan (no CR. Can't we all just get along?)


Parliament

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1 hour ago, MillerEP said:

While we were in there we sent in experts to do geological surveys and discovered that they're sitting on massive amounts of Lithium in their mountains. Somewhere in the range of $1trillion, so some have called it the Saudi Arabia of Lithium. The goal was to give the Afghans some industry that they could have to prop up their economy and become self-sufficient. The problem is they have virtually no security and no industry, so there wasn't any way to mine it out. They don't have "corporations" or billionaires like Western countries who can work the logistics and start-up costs it takes to get started, and then the security to ensure they can operate undisturbed so it just sits there.

As you can imagine lithium batteries are only growing as a market, especially with most countries now trying to pivot to electronic vehicles. China has been especially interested in it, they want to go in and mine it all out and send it back to China. They have the money and means to do it.

Of course Afghanistan also still is the world's largest producer of Poppies for opioids, so I imagine they'll go back to smuggling that for money.

So whoever wins out, will get bribes by the Chinese to let the Chinese strip them of their resources, while also taking a cut of the poppy trade, while the man on the street will go back to extreme poverty.

So, is it true about US troops guarding poppy fields? Did we ever do that? That’s one of those things conspiracy theorists liked to say. 

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Rusty, remember what you said when I asked you if we could go anywhere, where should we go???

uh, Bokhdi World, dad?

I mean, the fucking savages even burned down the moose out front  

 

Edited by Lobo
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2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

God bless em but I'm pretty sure I'm going to take guns and lay the points in a battle over there between pen and gun.  

Yep, what they Taliban and AQ are confiscating all the guns left over from everyone.  Most of us have seen the former ANA guy melting down over having to give up his rifle.  

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I'm not worried at all about getting Americans out. Our troops will make sure it happens and it'll take time. My bigger concern is the poor people who don't want to live under the Taliban. I feel for them and for others worldwide in that situation. I would address it through immigration policies.

Edited by 'stache
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16 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm not worried at all about getting Americans out. Our troops will make sure it happens and it'll take time. My bigger concern is the poor people who don't want to live under the Taliban. I feel for them and for others worldwide in that situation. I would address it through immigration policies.

Of course, that then leads to the "deserving" Afghans getting out and then you start to quibble over who and what is "deserving."

And it leads to heartbreak, either way.

There's no "good" way out of this.  Just variations or degrees of shitty.

The Taliban was coming, as soon as it became apparent that we would not or could not stop them.  And they were going to kill decent people that probably deserved something else.  Inevitable.

Edited by TwiceHorn
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Taliban is enforcing a curfew in Khost. US Troops rescuing babies:

 

Afghans raising the National flag in support of their Independence Day: 

 

The French also have Special Forces doing runs into Kabul along with the UK. US Troops are still staying put, telling everybody to make their way to airport if they can. Of course that only helps those within Kabul. If you're stuck in a different province I have no idea how you're supposed to get to Kabul.

Edited by MillerEP
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28 minutes ago, 'stache said:

I'm not worried at all about getting Americans out. Our troops will make sure it happens and it'll take time. My bigger concern is the poor people who don't want to live under the Taliban. I feel for them and for others worldwide in that situation. I would address it through immigration policies.

So no American deaths. OK. Cool. Hook'em.  And sorry for all the deaths of the interpreters, the US loyalists, and non-believers and sorry for the raping of the girls. There wasn't a good way. Please accept our apologies. We empathize and hope to someday make it easier to immigrate to the US assuming our voting habits align.

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49 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

I was in the Helmand Province, which is where most of the cultivation was. We absolutely did not PROTECT poppy fields. We just didn't care about them. Our main focus was in disrupting and killing bad guys. We weren't cops we're soldiers. At some level much higher than us they were trying to enact some policies that would allow for the eradication of poppies in exchange for cash crops that can help feed their country. The problem was it was rife with corruption from the Afghan government, and it was a really hard sell to tell some poor farmer whose family has only known and grown poppies for a couple of generations, that there was more money in Soybeans or whatever. Not only did you have to convince them, but then you had to train them how to grow this new stuff, and then provide them with the seeds, etc. Most just shrugged and went back to what they knew. The only way we were going to affect any change was for Afghanistan to stand on its own, have a strong central government that can enact its will on these rural farmers, and then do it systematically. As you can see that was a bit of a pipedream. 

Let me add something that is overlooked about Poppies. They grow early in Helmand during the year and do not compete with there substitute crops. I worked on a few of those programs and it was always the issue. Sure, I will grow watermelons but where do I sell them? Please train me. We built a 500 acre training farm about 5 miles from Lash  (Helmand) and it was always active. But here is the kicker. Train someone to grow it and support and they will. But still going to grow poppies. 

Some of these programs worked, most did not. The two that stick out. We pushed for fruit orchards and these were planted. USAID never worked out the market and logistics solutions, since the team in country did not have their mandate and the NGO who was given the award never priced it or planned for it. So sitting near the Air Base in Kandahar were crates full of rotting fruit. We did not donate it, nada, we just let it rot. Meanwhile I had markets in the Gulf who wanted it. USAID would not let us sell it. 

One that worked in Helmand was a large scale chili pepper project which did include production and export to established markets. Successful since it created jobs, but it was not designed to go after poppy production. 

Poppies will remain. They will be processed and exported and nothing competes with it across the entire nation. Taliban cannot get rid of it, and they do profit from it. 

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So now are we hauling more military hardware over there that when all the US people get out that we’re just going to abandon to the Taliban like the rest of the stuff we already did?  It’s beginning to look like this whole evacuation was planned by entities that supply hardware to the US military.

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We're not hauling anything into the country right now other than troops, what they're carrying, and food and water. The equipment a troop brings into the country leaves with them because it's all serialized and they'll be strung up on a yardarm if they lose it. 

I've seen videos of a lot of abandoned equipment at the Kabul airport military side (the North side), so I'm hoping that the troops load that shit up on their way out or render it inoperable. I know if I was there and any of the units I belonged with, we'd be removing the firing pins or something.

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Serious question for fellow military history buffs---what was the last major U.S. conflict (win, lose, or draw) where we didn't have one or the other of a 1) Shitty, Messy Exit or 2) remained indefinitely in the form of overseas military bases?  

Kuwait and Cuba are the only two I can kinda think of.  We fought in Kuwait and Iraq, liberated Kuwait and pretty much took everything/everybody out of Kuwait. Obviously a lot went back for Iraq Round II.  But today, our Kuwaiti exit was comparatively smooth, we maintain a few joint bases and posts, but nothing significant.  And then supporting Cuba against the Spaniards.  We ended up with bases in Philippenes, Puerto Rico, and Cuba.  But our exit from Cuba was smooth (again, releatively speaking), and we kept just the one base there for all these years.  Everything else seems to either have a hastily thought out exit (like this one now), or we just stick around, send most people home and ask them to have newer equipment back over.  

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19 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Serious question for fellow military history buffs---what was the last major U.S. conflict (win, lose, or draw) where we didn't have one or the other of a 1) Shitty, Messy Exit or 2) remained indefinitely in the form of overseas military bases?  

Kuwait and Cuba are the only two I can kinda think of.  We fought in Kuwait and Iraq, liberated Kuwait and pretty much took everything/everybody out of Kuwait. Obviously a lot went back for Iraq Round II.  But today, our Kuwaiti exit was comparatively smooth, we maintain a few joint bases and posts, but nothing significant.  And then supporting Cuba against the Spaniards.  We ended up with bases in Philippenes, Puerto Rico, and Cuba.  But our exit from Cuba was smooth (again, releatively speaking), and we kept just the one base there for all these years.  Everything else seems to either have a hastily thought out exit (like this one now), or we just stick around, send most people home and ask them to have newer equipment back over.  

This was basically my question that I was trying to ask and it got deleted for being political.  I was trying really hard not to be. But essentially yeah- we basically keep bases everywhere we've ever ended up in wars with and even still have a base in Cuba as you pointed out. It's what we've always done historically after a war.  

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Fucking up military exits is the most bi-partisan thing about the United States.  I'm talking about conflicts overseas, not all of our campaigns with Native Americans.  'Cause our exit was lovely, it was our overextended stay that pissed people off.  

As I said, I thought the end of the Spanish-American/Philippine-American War was relatively smooth.  We ended up with lots of overseas bases, but nothing we have in Japan/Korea/Europe.  That's McKinley and Roosevelt.  

Kuwait exit and our current presence, I'd have to give solid marks.  That's Bush 41 and Clinton.  

I'd say kind of a "neutral" exit, not too clean and not too ugly was WWI/The Great War.  I'm simplifying but once they started pressuring one another to dissolve their empires and disarm the really shitty guys...we kinda slid out the door and sailed home.  Didn't stick around for much nation building or base establishment (a little, not much).  That's Woodrow Wilson.

Vietnam exit was awful.  We all know the story there.  That's LBJ, Nixon, and Ford.

We're still in Korea and Europe and Japan.  Conclusions to the wars were clean.  But we're still there several decades later.  That's FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower.  

First Gulf War (see my Kuwait paragraph).  Iraq Part II, shitshow drawdown.  We'll be there for years to come.  That's Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden. 

Afghanistan.  20 years of all kinds of wrong.  Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden.  

So fucking up the ending, or overstaying by a half century.  That's really kind of our jam.  Because of politicians, not personnel.  

 

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3 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Protests continue

 

 

3 hours ago, Wulaw Horn said:

God bless em but I'm pretty sure I'm going to take guns and lay the points in a battle over there between pen and gun.  

Ummm....yeah.  I mean, by that metric, my posts on Surly are clearly a key battlefront in the fight against the shitbaggery of the taliban.

I anxiously await my decoration for valor:

main-qimg-6326483be836512150f65b3a619f4c

 

7 minutes ago, Parliament said:

Grenada seemed to have a clear end.  And I think it's an OK place now?

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14 minutes ago, Parliament said:

The anti Taliban protests have a long ways to go, but it's good to see folks aren't just laying down.  MAYBE something good can come of it?

not a chance.  once our citizens are out its over for them.  I suppose the VP Saleh might be able to carve out some type of "northern alliance" type safe zone.

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23 minutes ago, Lobo said:

 

We're still in Korea and Europe and Japan.  Conclusions to the wars were clean.  But we're still there several decades later.  That's FDR, Truman, and Eisenhower.  

 

 

There's nothing to be disappointed about in having strategic bases in Korea, Europe and Japan. Nobody dies (to speak of) on those postings, and that along with our blue water navy allows us to project power all over the world at not a huge cost to us in lives.  I'd argue the dollars and cents ROI on being able to project this power is pretty solid.  Finally, I'm not sure if it's causation or correlation but we haven't seen any conflicts in those theaters. Could we have said the same if we'd have withdrawn in 1945 or 1950? Who knows. It undoubtedly helped keep communism from overrunning western Europe for 40 years and that was greatly to our benefit.  What reason would you have to give back those bases?

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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

not a chance.  once our citizens are out its over for them.  I suppose the VP Saleh might be able to carve out some type of "northern alliance" type safe zone.

It could become Cambodia2.0 if they (protestors) are not careful.  Two decades worth of pent up frustration doesn't just abate easily from their fighters now in control.  

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3 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There's nothing to be disappointed about in having strategic bases in Korea, Europe and Japan. Nobody dies (to speak of) on those postings, and that along with our blue water navy allows us to project power all over the world at not a huge cost to us in lives.  I'd argue the dollars and cents ROI on being able to project this power is pretty solid.  Finally, I'm not sure if it's causation or correlation but we haven't seen any conflicts in those theaters. Could we have said the same if we'd have withdrawn in 1945 or 1950? Who knows. It undoubtedly helped keep communism from overrunning western Europe for 40 years and that was greatly to our benefit.  What reason would you have to give back those bases?

The untold number of casualties saved by having bases in relatively close proximity to combat zones is such a blessing.  So many ME casualties were saved by hospitals in Germany.  

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5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

not a chance.  once our citizens are out its over for them.  I suppose the VP Saleh might be able to carve out some type of "northern alliance" type safe zone.

correct.  everyone should read this newly-penned atlantic editorial from ian fritz if they are feeling any delusion like parliament's post above.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/what-i-learned-while-eavesdropping-on-the-taliban/619807/

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Just now, BabaYaga said:

The untold number of casualties saved by having bases in relatively close proximity to combat zones is such a blessing.  So many ME casualties were saved by hospitals in Germany.  

Yeah that's a real good point too that I hadn't even really considered. 

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Just now, BabaYaga said:

It could become Cambodia2.0 if they (protestors) are not careful.  Two decades worth of pent up frustration doesn't just abate easily from their fighters now in control.  

exactly.  The Talib leader is smart enough to wait for US to get out before the mass executions start. kind of the evil version of Mel Gibson in Braveheart.  Its gonna suck when we are paying these guys money through the UN.

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4 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

There's nothing to be disappointed about in having strategic bases in Korea, Europe and Japan. Nobody dies (to speak of) on those postings, and that along with our blue water navy allows us to project power all over the world at not a huge cost to us in lives.  I'd argue the dollars and cents ROI on being able to project this power is pretty solid.  Finally, I'm not sure if it's causation or correlation but we haven't seen any conflicts in those theaters. Could we have said the same if we'd have withdrawn in 1945 or 1950? Who knows. It undoubtedly helped keep communism from overrunning western Europe for 40 years and that was greatly to our benefit.  What reason would you have to give back those bases?

I'm totally fine with those bases there.  I have had many relatives serve on them since WWII through today (MEU).  They serve a multitude of purposes.  I brought them up because even when our exits are clean, they often come with long-duration presences in some form or fashion.  We've never finished a war, exited cleanly, and left only a handful of personnel or a couple of bases---other than Cuba and Kuwait.  My posit still stands, when have left nicely but still left 50,000 people back there?  

Maybe Bosnia?  

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5 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm totally fine with those bases there.  I have had many relatives serve on them since WWII through today (MEU).  They serve a multitude of purposes.  I brought them up because even when our exits are clean, they often come with long-duration presences in some form or fashion.  We've never finished a war, exited cleanly, and left only a handful of personnel or a couple of bases---other than Cuba and Kuwait.  My posit still stands, when have left nicely but still left 50,000 people back there?  

Maybe Bosnia?  

first barbary war.

our involvement in the russian civil war of 1917-1923.

mexican-american war although the treaty of hidalgo basically gave us a "base" insomuch as the american southwest is now part of the united states.

kosovo war.

invasion of panama.

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10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm totally fine with those bases there.  I have had many relatives serve on them since WWII through today (MEU).  They serve a multitude of purposes.  I brought them up because even when our exits are clean, they often come with long-duration presences in some form or fashion.  We've never finished a war, exited cleanly, and left only a handful of personnel or a couple of bases---other than Cuba and Kuwait.  My posit still stands, when have left nicely but still left 50,000 people back there?  

Maybe Bosnia?  

Sure. I'm just saying that a clean exit isn't always the most advantageous exit possible in many situations.  Not coming home doesn't have to be viewed as a failure if there isn't big costs to us and there is a benefit. 

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3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Macedonia/Bosnia/Kosovo(1994-1999), Panama (1989-1990), Granada (1983). All of those places we left fine.

I just read today that the U.S. has ~200,000 troops stationed in over 150 countries worldwide, many of which have been stationed in locations over 60 years.

We're in a lot of places.

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2 minutes ago, sidis said:

first barbary war.

our involvement in the russian civil war of 1917-1923.

mexican-american war although the treaty of hidalgo basically gave us a "base" insomuch as the american southwest is now part of the united states.

kosovo war.

invasion of panama.

Yeah, my cursory knowledge of Bosnia and Kosovo led me to believe I should have included them.  I kinda did in that other post.  

With all due respect to the servicemen and women of the Russian Civil War, we were only in for about one division, and almost no armor or navy exposure.  400-500 were KIA.  A horrible loss to be sure.  But we were never gonna stick around, and getting out one division even 100 years ago was not a monumental, years-long task.  

Good point about the Mexican-American war.  We ended up with lots of sand in which to build cool aircraft and big bombs.  

 I have no idea about the Barbary War.  A little before my time and America's.  

Panama  and Grenada were too brief IMO to be considered major armed conflicts.  The casualties are a tragedy.  But the exits were easy and we did leave a footprint in Panama for some time.

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4 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I have no idea about the Barbary War.  A little before my time and America's.  

Read up on it.  It's god damn amazing how big the brass balls of our ancestors were.  

My personal favorite.  Read on a flight, could not put the book down.  

91FX3z7JgrL.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Good point about the Mexican-American war.  We ended up with lots of sand in which to test cool aircraft and big bombs.  

fify

2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

 I have no idea about the Barbary War.  A little before my time and America's

incorrect.  your third president thomas jefferson oversaw the first barbary war from 1801 to 1805 and your fourth president james madison prosecuted the second for three whopping days.

you could say it was our country's first entree into fighting with muslim nations/pirates.

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Barbary War is where we get the first line of the Marine Hymn from:
"From the Halls of Montezuma, to the shores of Tripoli"

This just came out but happened earlier. Taliban killing Hazaras in Ghazni in incredibly brutal ways. A sign of things to come maybe?:

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/08/afghanistan-taliban-responsible-for-brutal-massacre-of-hazara-men-new-investigation/

 

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