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Realignment talk not going away


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1 hour ago, statsman said:

On IT, Burton said SMU was really upping its NIL game, and big. Who wouldn’t want that in their conference? A great recruiting school that can’t attract fans or viewers, but can lay a whipping on you?

Is this what they did in the 70's and 80's? They were visionaries.  😁

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4 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

That's 24mill over a 6 year contract. You can't leave 24mill on the table, of course they'd jump for 24 million 

Colorado made $5m less than Kansas State last year, the lowest revenue school in the B12, while running a $10m deficit.   They'd move for the daily deal at McDonalds at this point.

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5 hours ago, statsman said:

On IT, Burton said SMU was really upping its NIL game, and big. Who wouldn’t want that in their conference? A great recruiting school that can’t attract fans or viewers, but can lay a whipping on you?

I can attest that SMU has a ton of wealth to draw upon. I’m really  surprised they aren’t better than they are because of it. Guessing if they could get their act together, NIL could be a game changer for them. Honestly surprised they are so far behind the NIL 8-ball considering their resources. 

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36 minutes ago, CustersDoctor said:

That's 24mill over a 6 year contract. You can't leave 24mill on the table, of course they'd jump for 24 million 

Well, they should, but how much stroke do their West Coast alumni have?

By now, CU's administration has gotta know the new PAC deal will be for some undesirable combination of less money/more streaming.

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3 hours ago, DFW Horn said:

Well, they should, but how much stroke do their West Coast alumni have?

By now, CU's administration has gotta know the new PAC deal will be for some undesirable combination of less money/more streaming.

I think it’s more about recruiting students - not football players. CU makes a lot of their money by charging huge amounts for out of state students, a big chunk of which are from California. 
 

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55 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I think it’s more about recruiting students - not football players. CU makes a lot of their money by charging huge amounts for out of state students, a big chunk of which are from California. 
 

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California is like Chicago and NYC/Philly/DC though - more kids than local schools.   I'd guess the biggest out of state enrollment for Wisconson, Indiana, Iowa and Iowa State is Chicago, just like NYC kids flood the entire east coast.    It doesn't matter if Colorado even has sports, it will still have 12% of its enrollment from Cali.   15% of CSU's enrollment is from Cali/Texas/Illinois

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6 hours ago, Texas Wahoo said:

I think it’s more about recruiting students - not football players. CU makes a lot of their money by charging huge amounts for out of state students, a big chunk of which are from California. 
 

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Good point, I didn't consider that.

The fact that Arkansas, Ole Miss, and others don't charge Texas HS grads exorbitant out-of-state fees has boosted their enrollments too.

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1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

Good point, I didn't consider that.

The fact that Arkansas, Ole Miss, and others don't charge Texas HS grads exorbitant out-of-state fees has boosted their enrollments too.

That would be true of the Oklahoma schools as well. Not enough kids to fill their schools. It’s why Houston, Texas State, UTD and Tech fund themselves competing for kids not going to UT or aggy.

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30 minutes ago, Satchel said:

That would be true of the Oklahoma schools as well. Not enough kids to fill their schools. It’s why Houston, Texas State, UTD and Tech fund themselves competing for kids not going to UT or aggy.

You’re insulting UTD putting them in the same category with those others you listed.

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1 hour ago, DFW Horn said:

UTD's academics may be stronger than Tech, UH, and State, but it's still a commuter school.

D3 athletics

“may”?

and none of that contradicts with the above.

UTD is very strong academically and yes has a large commuter contingent because it sits in the heart of Dallas perfectly sandwiched between the City of Dallas and Plano and the rest of the vast Northern suburban sprawl.

But to say they are filling their school with those who could not get into aggy is absolutely incorrect. Most could go to multiple P5 football schools but chose to stay at a local school with great academics for a myriad of reasons.

UTD is a great success story for the UT system, and anyone trying to insinuate otherwise because they lack DI basketball (by choice, because they absolutely could if they wanted to) or a large commuter base doesn’t understand what they are trying to do in Richardson.

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2 minutes ago, TKthunder2 said:

“may”?

and none of that contradicts with the above.

UTD is very strong academically and yes has a large commuter contingent because it sits in the heart of Dallas perfectly sandwiched between the City of Dallas and Plano and the rest of the vast Northern suburban sprawl.

But to say they are filling their school with those who could not get into aggy is absolutely incorrect. Most could go to multiple P5 football schools but chose to stay at a local school with great academics for a myriad of reasons.

UTD is a great success story for the UT system, and anyone trying to insinuate otherwise because they lack DI basketball (by choice, because they absolutely could if they wanted to) or a large commuter base doesn’t understand what they are trying to do in Richardson.

My kid should graduate from this school soon and when they first visited the crowd was told that UTD's goal was to make sure the business sector could be confident that a UTD degree had some weight behind it and they did not just hand them out to anyone and that they could expect to have to work for it. They proudly said they are the #3 academic public school in the state and they are known world wide for their chess team. So if you are not into big schools, can't afford private school or want to save money and you are a geek this is the place for you.

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43 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

My kid should graduate from this school soon and when they first visited the crowd was told that UTD's goal was to make sure the business sector could be confident that a UTD degree had some weight behind it and they did not just hand them out to anyone and that they could expect to have to work for it. They proudly said they are the #3 academic public school in the state and they are known world wide for their chess team. So if you are not into big schools, can't afford private school or want to save money and you are a geek this is the place for you.

Yeah my brainiac cousin fucked up round one of going to school with booze and drugs and the family drama had him pegged as the washout.   Then got his shit together and went this route to lean into his geek and climbed the corporate ladder easily.   His Aggy sister, on the other hand, is now a hot mess.   

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On 6/17/2023 at 2:47 PM, Trojan Man said:

I've heard a pretty interesting theory on why Colorado recruited better in the Big 12 than they have in the Pac 12, and it's not just because they were complete dogshit their entire time in the Pac 12 while they had some success in the Big 12.  When Colorado was battling Big 12 schools for a recruit from Big 12 territory Boulder was a much more unique place than most Big 12 towns.  They were the only mountain town in a conference of plains schools which would stick out during visits, especially for recruits who have never spent much time in the mountains.  In the Pac 12 Boulder isn't even the only mountain town (there's Salt Lake City if you want to live in the mountains and play for a competent football program), plus there are mountains nearby most of the other schools in the conference so there goes the uniqueness.  If you're recruiting a kid from California he's much more likely to have spent time in the mountains and not be as impressed by that like a kid from Iowa might be.

I think fans make WAY too much of thing about what kind of city/town the schools are situated in. 

I'm sure a handful of recruits make decisions based on that, but the vast, vast do not. They tend to go to places that are (a) successful and (b) help them get to the NFL. That means being a winning program and having top-notch facilities.

I think the simple answer as to why Colorado fell off is that they weren't willing to keep up in the facilities arms race with the rest of the Big 12 that started in the early 2000s and essentially never let up.  CU was always behind the blue bloods, but all of a sudden OSU, Tech, K-State, Iowa State, etc., started pouring hundreds of millions into facilities through the mid-2000s and also blew past CU in that regard.

Now their facilities are dogshit compared to pretty much everyone in the Big 12 except Kansas; they compare a little better in the PAC just because most of the schools don't care about football, but still way behind schools they would be competing against for recruits like Utah, Oregon, Washington, etc.

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5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

What’s the worst case scenario for SDSU? Going independent in football/WCC for hoops for a year? 

Think the worst case scenario is going independent for a year and then not getting an invite to either PAC or Big 12 and then have to come crawling back to the MWC... who at this point may tell them to jump off a bridge...and ending up in the WAC.

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7 minutes ago, Vertigo said:

Kliavkoff is cooking right now. He is not only screwing his own conference, he is finding ways to screw schools in other conferences as well. 

With the federal holiday I have been spending the off day digging for something interesting to see where thugs are. There has been all sorts of rumors the last few days that the “deal” is around 22.5 total and no real talk about carriage breakdown or online distribution percentage. Most of this is coming out of the Arizona 24/7 board, but it’s interesting to think about.

If it is that low, it’s over. Teams can’t stay at that price and even SDSU and SMU might be better off letting the Pac12 die and hoping their market payout gets distributed back down the hill to the MWC and to a lesser extent the AAC.

The more I think about this, the MWC is probably going to get the most benefit if that Pac12 dies. Yes, the B12 and most likely the B10 add members, but funny enough any leftovers that join the MWC would actually then be a major boon to their media deal and would drive a ton of interests and solidify the Pacific late night time slot. Yes, it would eventually level off as those schools dealt with the new reality of a MWC payout, but short term teams like OSU and WSU would be a big benefit.

If the Pac12 does die, doesn’t that drop off another AQ spot in the playoffs? Essentially a big 4 plus 5 mid majors plus 3 more? So in essence 2 SEC, 1 or 2 B10, 1 ACC and B12, 1 or 2 flex team out of those 4 and the Indies and then the conf champs of the mid majors? That instantly helps the big 4 and technically increase the odds and therefore payout as a mid major…

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7 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

With the federal holiday I have been spending the off day digging for something interesting to see where thugs are. There has been all sorts of rumors the last few days that the “deal” is around 22.5 total and no real talk about carriage breakdown or online distribution percentage. Most of this is coming out of the Arizona 24/7 board, but it’s interesting to think about.

If it is that low, it’s over. Teams can’t stay at that price and even SDSU and SMU might be better off letting the Pac12 die and hoping their market payout gets distributed back down the hill to the MWC and to a lesser extent the AAC.

The more I think about this, the MWC is probably going to get the most benefit if that Pac12 dies. Yes, the B12 and most likely the B10 add members, but funny enough any leftovers that join the MWC would actually then be a major boon to their media deal and would drive a ton of interests and solidify the Pacific late night time slot. Yes, it would eventually level off as those schools dealt with the new reality of a MWC payout, but short term teams like OSU and WSU would be a big benefit.

If the Pac12 does die, doesn’t that drop off another AQ spot in the playoffs? Essentially a big 4 plus 5 mid majors plus 3 more? So in essence 2 SEC, 1 or 2 B10, 1 ACC and B12, 1 or 2 flex team out of those 4 and the Indies and then the conf champs of the mid majors? That instantly helps the big 4 and technically increase the odds and therefore payout as a mid major…

I think Sankey is thinking 3-4 CFP teams every year. 3 is a pretty low bar. Bama and Tennessee both finished 10-2 in 2022 and they were both comfortably in the top 6. If LSU doesn’t sleep walk through the aggy game, they would have been in the top 10. 
 

The Big Ten probably thinks something similar. If Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, USC and Wiskey win 10 they’ll be in. 

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5 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think Sankey is thinking 3-4 CFP teams every year. 3 is a pretty low bar. Bama and Tennessee both finished 10-2 in 2022 and they were both comfortably in the top 6. If LSU doesn’t sleep walk through the aggy game, they would have been in the top 10. 
 

The Big Ten probably thinks something similar. If Ohio State, Penn State, Michigan, USC and Wiskey win 10 they’ll be in. 

Im just going by the simple math and trying to determine what the already divvied-up slots are. Right now this is the described format:

Quote

The 12-team format will feature, in order, the top four conference champions, followed by some combination of the top six at-large bids and two highest-ranked remaining conference champions.

But if you drop the total number of conferences by 1, what happens? Mathematically that instantly guarantees 2 of the AAC, MWC, CUSA, SB and MAC. That is a big deal because then the overall pot is automatically bigger for the non-power schools by virtue of having no Pac-12. But the bigger question needs to be is the prior design was essentially 4 of 5 of the power conferences were guaranteed a spot, now does that mean the Power 4 all are guaranteed a spot? So a 9-4 B12 champion would be the required representative if they win the title game?

Killing the Pac12 may force a reopening of the logic of who gets an auto spot and should it be 3/6/3 vs 4/6/2 if we lose a power conference? 

This is just me running out the string of possible outcomes, but killing the Pac12 prior to the 12-team CFP could be really interesting politics

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22 minutes ago, Satchel said:

In what way? They’re all among the 131 Carnegie Classification Institutions of Very High Research Activity. 

 

 

 

 

I know Texas State isn’t MIT or anything but the difference between “high” and “very high” research activity doesn’t seem to make a shit really unless you are some highfalutin academic snob… have come a very long way since the ol SWT days as far as those same academic snobs would be concerned.

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2 hours ago, Satchel said:

In what way? They’re all among the 131 Carnegie Classification Institutions of Very High Research Activity. 

Pretty much the only one near UTD’s academic profile is UH (last I checked) so I’m just really going to talk about UH here as discussing Tech and Texas State isn’t worth the effort.

UH is a very generalized institution trying to be a big state university (despite just being a city). UH offers nearly 300 degrees while UTD (being locally and system focused) is more specialized offering less than 150.

If you specifically exclude UH’s bonus point for Law/Med/etc, to try and get a true apples to apples/head to head comparison UTD is better in the vast majority of categories.

UTD’s MBA ties with Rice in the rankings ahead of aggy and SMU and only behind UT Austin in this state.

UTD engineering is 4th behind UT Austin, Rice, and aggy.

UTD has other great targeted programs like Audiology that it is also nationally known for.

UH’s best programs are Hospitality, Entrepreneurship, Social Work, and Pharmacy. While their is nothing wrong with those learning paths, I think anyone trying to truly decide which school is academically superior has a pretty open and shut case.

UH can offer the more traditional big time-ish college experience compared to UTD, but UTD is a far better academic institution albeit in a more targeted capacity (which is in line with the goals of the UT system).

This is also why it’s not an honest statement to claim UTD of going after Texas and aggy rejects. People going to UTD aren’t generally the same applicants looking for the big time college experience. Those go to Tech, UH or out of state to OU, Arkansas, LSU, or Ole Miss if they can’t get it.

UTD applicants are most likely looking for the best academic public school option they can find, which doesn’t line up with these same type of students that were being discussed in the previous comment, which is why it’s an insult to them to lump them in with those universities trying to be like UT/aggy. That is not what UTD is doing, it’s trying to be like UC Santa Cruz not UCLA.

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3 hours ago, Satchel said:

In what way? They’re all among the 131 Carnegie Classification Institutions of Very High Research Activity. 

I'm wondering why we're debating UTD's academic prowess and merits in a realignment thread. Their D3 athletic program makes UTD irrelevant to the conversation.

Well, to everyone but @TKthunder2. Maybe he teaches at UTD? Or his kid goes there?

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5 hours ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

I know Texas State isn’t MIT or anything but the difference between “high” and “very high” research activity doesn’t seem to make a shit really unless you are some highfalutin academic snob… have come a very long way since the ol SWT days as far as those same academic snobs would be concerned.

One would certainly hope. Texas needs more than 3 high falutin’ academic schools, especially one of those is aggy.

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6 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I think the expanded CFP could make Championship Saturday a lot more interesting. The SEC and Big Ten will be playing for a bye. The ACC, PAC, and Big 12 might be playing for a CFP berth. 

There are 4 byes that go to the top 4 highest ranked conference champions.  

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5 hours ago, Laxtonto said:

Im just going by the simple math and trying to determine what the already divvied-up slots are. Right now this is the described format:

But if you drop the total number of conferences by 1, what happens? Mathematically that instantly guarantees 2 of the AAC, MWC, CUSA, SB and MAC. That is a big deal because then the overall pot is automatically bigger for the non-power schools by virtue of having no Pac-12. But the bigger question needs to be is the prior design was essentially 4 of 5 of the power conferences were guaranteed a spot, now does that mean the Power 4 all are guaranteed a spot? So a 9-4 B12 champion would be the required representative if they win the title game?

Killing the Pac12 may force a reopening of the logic of who gets an auto spot and should it be 3/6/3 vs 4/6/2 if we lose a power conference? 

This is just me running out the string of possible outcomes, but killing the Pac12 prior to the 12-team CFP could be really interesting politics

The '24 and '25 playoff formats are locked in, as you posted above.  Top 6 champs and top 6 at large.  There's no guarantee in there for any conference, but we know in reality that it will be BIG, SEC, ACC, B12 champs and then two more.  If the PAC stays intact they'll get one of them, but if they devolve into a G5, it essentially creates 2 G5 auto-bids.

I think that will all go out the window starting in 2026.  It will be an entirely new contract, and the BIG and SEC will push for a 12 or 16 team version of what we have now, with no auto-bid for winning your conference.  The revenue split will also be different and favor the BIG/SEC.  They will want to maximize the teams they get in every year and the amount of money they make every year.

Everyone else will go along because otherwise they'll be left out.

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53 minutes ago, USC Traveler said:

I think that will all go out the window starting in 2026.  It will be an entirely new contract, and the BIG and SEC will push for a 12 or 16 team version of what we have now, with no auto-bid for winning your conference.  The revenue split will also be different and favor the BIG/SEC.  They will want to maximize the teams they get in every year and the amount of money they make every year.

Everyone else will go along because otherwise they'll be left out.

I could see them shrinking the autobids to the top 4 conference champs which makes the byes very clean/important. It opens 2 additional spots for SEC/B1G teams that previously went to the G5/P12 and keeps the ND no bye as an independent agreement in place.

This likely gets the SEC/B1G 3 bids each annually which was the goal.

I’m not so sure you’ll see a push for 16 after 2 years but it’s not impossible. Going to 16 too quick will dilute the product. No one is going to pay substantially more for those 16v1 games than they currently are now with 12.

Assume the 12 team playoff is worth $600 million and a 16 is worth $700 million. With 12 each game is worth on average $50 million, with 16 that drops to less than $44 million and while yes you’ve increased the size of the pie, you’ve also made the road more difficult for your conference champion who has already played an extra game over a team like ND or a 3rd place Ohio State or Tennessee.

If both teams playing in the SECCG or B1GCCG are ranked in the top 6 and you know that they both be playing in round 1 of the playoffs in two weeks, it lowers the stakes somewhat which will hurt viewership, but if it’s for a bye…we’ll now have national attention and makes that game have more meaning and no one will rest their starters.

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I see the 12 team playoff as being:

-3 SEC

-3 Big 10

- 2 Big 12

- 2 ACC

- 1 Pac 12 (or whatever is left)

- 1 Best remaining mid major champ

If the Pac 12 survives in it's current form, maybe some years they steal a spot that usually goes to the 2nd Big 12/ACC school or 3rd SEC/Big 10.

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8 hours ago, Satchel said:

One would certainly hope. Texas needs more than 3 high falutin’ academic schools, especially one of those is aggy.

It's my opinion aggy should've changed their name to Texas State decades ago and dropped the fake army, military pretense. But, it's turdition so...

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7 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I could see them shrinking the autobids to the top 4 conference champs which makes the byes very clean/important. It opens 2 additional spots for SEC/B1G teams that previously went to the G5/P12 and keeps the ND no bye as an independent agreement in place.

No it should have a little bit of the NCAA tournament flavor to it since we are going with 12 and not 8 teams. In my view anyone outside the top 8 should not be there so in my view there will always be at least 1-2 open spots for undeserving teams aside from the 2-3 teams with auto bids that are going to be destroyed. So 2-3 teams get destroyed but they are happy as hell to be there and they earned the right to be there against their peers. Everyone left out because of those auto bids is bitching because they can but have no real argument to be there since they could have won their conference.

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Can one of you smart young farts with your fancy video editing capabilities take this video of George Costanza trying to pretend he didn't quit his job on Friday and put SDSU logo on George, various other MWC teams on the other coworkers, and the MWC logo on the boss at the end?

I'm technically-challenged on how to do such a thing.

 

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12 hours ago, TKthunder2 said:

I could see them shrinking the autobids to the top 4 conference champs which makes the byes very clean/important. It opens 2 additional spots for SEC/B1G teams that previously went to the G5/P12 and keeps the ND no bye as an independent agreement in place.

This likely gets the SEC/B1G 3 bids each annually which was the goal.

I’m not so sure you’ll see a push for 16 after 2 years but it’s not impossible. Going to 16 too quick will dilute the product. No one is going to pay substantially more for those 16v1 games than they currently are now with 12.

Assume the 12 team playoff is worth $600 million and a 16 is worth $700 million. With 12 each game is worth on average $50 million, with 16 that drops to less than $44 million and while yes you’ve increased the size of the pie, you’ve also made the road more difficult for your conference champion who has already played an extra game over a team like ND or a 3rd place Ohio State or Tennessee.

If both teams playing in the SECCG or B1GCCG are ranked in the top 6 and you know that they both be playing in round 1 of the playoffs in two weeks, it lowers the stakes somewhat which will hurt viewership, but if it’s for a bye…we’ll now have national attention and makes that game have more meaning and no one will rest their starters.

I do think the playoff will eventually go to 16, but that may not happen for a while, as you make compelling points for staying at 12 for the next contract.

As for the format, the BIG/SEC will probably put 3 teams each into the playoff most years under the current structure, and they're going to want more.  In an ideal world, I like your top 4 champs get autobids idea because, as you pointed out, it would add stakes to the CCGs.

But the BIG/SEC will want a "four highest-ranked teams get byes" format to enable as many total playoff entrants as possible, and to create opportunities to get multiple BIG/SEC teams 1st round byes.  We've seen multiple SEC and BIG teams in the four team playoff, why wouldn't they want to replicate that ?

The SEC got its way with the four team format having no champs, and with the SEC and BIG having so much more power today, I can't see any of the other conferences being able to stop it.

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1 hour ago, USC Traveler said:

I do think the playoff will eventually go to 16, but that may not happen for a while, as you make compelling points for staying at 12 for the next contract.

As for the format, the BIG/SEC will probably put 3 teams each into the playoff most years under the current structure, and they're going to want more.  In an ideal world, I like your top 4 champs get autobids idea because, as you pointed out, it would add stakes to the CCGs.

But the BIG/SEC will want a "four highest-ranked teams get byes" format to enable as many total playoff entrants as possible, and to create opportunities to get multiple BIG/SEC teams 1st round byes.  We've seen multiple SEC and BIG teams in the four team playoff, why wouldn't they want to replicate that ?

The SEC got its way with the four team format having no champs, and with the SEC and BIG having so much more power today, I can't see any of the other conferences being able to stop it.

I think they could and would.  The idea of 12 teams with a committee picking teams on a bogus eyeball test won’t fly with the public

 

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

 

If he's flying AA, that means nothing.  Fly to DFW, connect to somewhere else.

Remember in the 80's when you had every SWA flight connecting through Love, and every AA flight connecting through DFW, the old joke was "when you die, you have to go through Dallas to get to heaven."

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32 minutes ago, Uncle Nate said:

If he's flying AA, that means nothing.  Fly to DFW, connect to somewhere else.

Remember in the 80's when you had every SWA flight connecting through Love, and every AA flight connecting through DFW, the old joke was "when you die, you have to go through Dallas to get to heaven."

I hear it around here as: You can’t even get to “hailll” without going through Atlanta.  Delta and what not. 
 

But to get back on track, today is Tuesday, so expect big news any minute. 

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9 hours ago, bullet said:

I think they could and would.  The idea of 12 teams with a committee picking teams on a bogus eyeball test won’t fly with the public

 

I hope you're right, as I think top 4 champs getting byes would help keep CCGs meaningful, as TK was pointing out.

I just don't think the other conferences will be able to stop it if the BIG/SEC make a push for a "Top 12" format with no autobids.

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