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Posted
36 minutes ago, Derka said:

 

I got an early invite for sora 2 and been playing with it for a week or so now and can attest it's pure AI slop and silliness that doesn't seem to serve a purpose right now outside of the lulz amongst friends.

I get why it's invite only right now because the gpu's and electricity to create foolishness is not defensible right now from a cost or monetization route.

Posted

My while life I’ve always thought new tech was cool. Never dreamed it would ultimately be used to ruin everything. Maybe I should have read more science fiction.

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Posted
48 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I got an early invite for sora 2 and been playing with it for a week or so now and can attest it's pure AI slop and silliness that doesn't seem to serve a purpose right now outside of the lulz amongst friends.

I get why it's invite only right now because the gpu's and electricity to create foolishness is not defensible right now from a cost or monetization route.

so you're saying i should sell my nvda and amd right now?

Posted
50 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I got an early invite for sora 2 and been playing with it for a week or so now and can attest it's pure AI slop and silliness that doesn't seem to serve a purpose right now outside of the lulz amongst friends.

I get why it's invite only right now because the gpu's and electricity to create foolishness is not defensible right now from a cost or monetization route.

You're participating in their demand generation efforts to create the mirage of a market, in order to fraudulently court more investors. Sora2 is already being used for disinformation campaigns and racist shit, and whatyda know, people have already figured out how to get it to NOT watermark its work. 

1 minute ago, elfenix said:

so you're saying i should sell my nvda and amd right now?

The market can and will be irrational longer than you can hold out your short position on whatever fuckery they're doing. NVDA is investing in customers, just so they can turn around and buy more GPU's. It's completely masturbatory and circular. It's one hell of a bubble that we're gonna have a fun time paying for.

And best of all - it's going to wreck our power grid and dry up all our water sources HOORAY!

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Captainant said:

You're participating in their demand generation efforts to create the mirage of a market, in order to fraudulently court more investors. Sora2 is already being used for disinformation campaigns and racist shit, and whatyda know, people have already figured out how to get it to NOT watermark its work. 

The market can and will be irrational longer than you can hold out your short position on whatever fuckery they're doing. NVDA is investing in customers, just so they can turn around and buy more GPU's. It's completely masturbatory and circular. It's one hell of a bubble that we're gonna have a fun time paying for.

And best of all - it's going to wreck our power grid and dry up all our water sources HOORAY!

AMD will be a trillion dollar company-- why not?

Posted
18 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

AMD will be a trillion dollar company-- why not?

Zimbabwean one hundred trillion dollar note - Wikipedia

you might find that a trillion dollars isn't so good when it's all paper value and mark-to-market bullshit. Oracle is raising funds based off of future revenue from a datacenter they haven't even broken ground on yet. And that oracle datacenter is a big part of what's popped NVDA's paper value. 

It's all harvesting the potential future gains to inflate the market today.

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Posted
25 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Zimbabwean one hundred trillion dollar note - Wikipedia

you might find that a trillion dollars isn't so good when it's all paper value and mark-to-market bullshit. Oracle is raising funds based off of future revenue from a datacenter they haven't even broken ground on yet. And that oracle datacenter is a big part of what's popped NVDA's paper value. 

It's all harvesting the potential future gains to inflate the market today.

I'm not sure Oracle is a great example though (and their stock is down like 7 or 8% last I saw):

From The Information:

Quote

 

In the three months that ended in August, Oracle generated around $900 million from rentals of servers powered by Nvidia chips and recorded a gross profit of $125 million—equal to 14 cents for every $1 of sales, the documents show. That’s lower than the gross margins of many nontech retail businesses.

As sales from the business nearly tripled in the past year, the gross profit margin from those sales ranged between less than 10% and slightly over 20%, averaging around 16%, the documents show.

 

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/internal-oracle-data-show-financial-challenge-renting-nvidia-chips

Posted
1 hour ago, Vegas64 said:

I got an early invite for sora 2 and been playing with it for a week or so now and can attest it's pure AI slop and silliness that doesn't seem to serve a purpose right now outside of the lulz amongst friends.

Sora 2 is already pumping out a lot of stuff that is looking pretty real.  It's cute when it's Mr. Rogers walking through an old battlefield in the middle of a war, but we've already seen Trump posting AI slop on his social media. It's only a matter of time until this stuff is used to start shit with another country or even to gaslight our own citizens (and people are making videos that supposedly show clashes between feds and civilians).

Stuff like this video below could easily spread around Russian or Ukrainian social media:

And what if somebody within China got some serious videos going around China, and the list goes on.

Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Sora 2 is already pumping out a lot of stuff that is looking pretty real.  It's cute when it's Mr. Rogers walking through an old battlefield in the middle of a war, but we've already seen Trump posting AI slop on his social media. It's only a matter of time until this stuff is used to start shit with another country or even to gaslight our own citizens (and people are making videos that supposedly show clashes between feds and civilians).

Stuff like this video below could easily spread around Russian or Ukrainian social media:

And what if somebody within China got some serious videos going around China, and the list goes on.

I don't think this technology will be free until it's cheap to make. From an interview with Sam Altman (for those who don't know, Sora is an OpenAI product:

Quote

But there’s so much usage where people are just making funny memes to send to their three friends and that there is no ad model that can support the cost of that kind of a world. So there will have to be like, I think, people are just going to have to pay for generations in some cases.

 

Posted
37 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Zimbabwean one hundred trillion dollar note - Wikipedia

you might find that a trillion dollars isn't so good when it's all paper value and mark-to-market bullshit. Oracle is raising funds based off of future revenue from a datacenter they haven't even broken ground on yet. And that oracle datacenter is a big part of what's popped NVDA's paper value. 

It's all harvesting the potential future gains to inflate the market today.

spacer.png

Posted
6 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I'm not sure Oracle is a great example though (and their stock is down like 7 or 8% last I saw):

From The Information:

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/internal-oracle-data-show-financial-challenge-renting-nvidia-chips

(can't open the link it's paywalled)

their stock is down... AFTER a massive pump from the NVDA announcement. It's a salient example of how unsustainable that business model is. You're proving my point that all the GPU's NVDA is selling to companies under CapEx are purely speculative. See: Oracle's Stargate project that is failing to launch in Abiline, which is where most of their NVDA purchases are planned to be hosted.

You're getting access to that horrifically expensive and energy intensive model precisely BECAUSE they don't have paying customers. 

 

Oracle's whole recent stock growth story has been via genAI CapEx spending, and their marking down of profits that are fur suuuure gonna come through. Their main buyer is OpenAI, who aren't making a profit and are burning money like mad. OpenAI's main buyers are smaller companies like CursorAI or CharacterAI, which aren't making a profit and burning money like mad. It's all paper tigers and irrational exuberance all the way down.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Captainant said:

Oracle's whole recent stock growth story has been via genAI CapEx spending, and their marking down of profits that are fur suuuure gonna come through. Their main buyer is OpenAI, who aren't making a profit and are burning money like mad. OpenAI's main buyers are smaller companies like CursorAI or CharacterAI, which aren't making a profit and burning money like mad. It's all paper tigers and irrational exuberance all the way down.

Okay ladies and gentlemen, let's stop trashing the business model and instead start talking about how we can make a fuckton of money off of it.

Posted
Just now, atomheartbevo said:

Okay ladies and gentlemen, let's stop trashing the business model and instead start talking about how we can make a fuckton of money off of it.

that's the thing though, I have customers using genAI for ACTUAL business usecases and it's incredibly useful! When scoped correctly with an actual unsolved business problem they're trying to address. They're doing things like feeding in decades of paper contracts and extracting key fields like IF the charged rate changes, WHEN it changes, and other key fields, and building a master data record for their accounting team to go and true up all their ongoing service rates. But that whole project is like maybe $10k a month in used compute and genAI token consumption. It doesn't take that much computational power to achieve meaningful business outcomes. 

But true to form, idiot executives are seeing that something works at one size so therefore it MUST work at the giga-scale, and of course it's generalizable to every problem domain. 

 

I am also dealing with alot of goofballs doing things like feeding in large tabular datasets and asking an LLM for a trend or classification of groups inside that dataset, rather than using a traditional method like XGBoost or K-means clustering, or some other traditional machine learning technique. There's SOOOOO MUCH a trend of uninformed people using genAI to solve every problem, which is giving false business signals that every problem IS and WILL be solved by genAI. Even when there's significantly better (qualatatively and quantatatively), more mature, and CHEAPER means to achieve the same outcome. 

It's madness.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Okay ladies and gentlemen, let's stop trashing the business model and instead start talking about how we can make a fuckton of money off of it.

I said this previously and I believe it still; the companies who will thrive in the AI era of industrialization and society haven't even incorporated yet. You and I (heck, PM me) could be sitting on a unicorn idea that just needs to be operationalized once the chessboard has been set and all the pieces have been captured (via the incoming AI bust).

3 minutes ago, Captainant said:

(can't open the link it's paywalled)

their stock is down... AFTER a massive pump from the NVDA announcement. It's a salient example of how unsustainable that business model is. You're proving my point that all the GPU's NVDA is selling to companies under CapEx are purely speculative. See: Oracle's Stargate project that is failing to launch in Abiline, which is where most of their NVDA purchases are planned to be hosted.

You're getting access to that horrifically expensive and energy intensive model precisely BECAUSE they don't have paying customers. 

 

Oracle's whole recent stock growth story has been via genAI CapEx spending, and their marking down of profits that are fur suuuure gonna come through. Their main buyer is OpenAI, who aren't making a profit and are burning money like mad. OpenAI's main buyers are smaller companies like CursorAI or CharacterAI, which aren't making a profit and burning money like mad. It's all paper tigers and irrational exuberance all the way down.

That's all fair, except to say I don't see a world where nvidia, openai, oracle (and gemini/google, anthropic, microsoft, meta, etc.) don't exist as trillion dollar organizations EVEN WHEN (not if, but when) a lot of the unicorn and decacorn AI startups got belly-up.

It's a bubble, but a productive bubble. It's a bubble that is building out the infrastructure that will outlast all the froth. Like railroads before it or paving of streets, the future highway that everyone will use to create and make economic upside in and with AI will be done off the back of the bubble infrastructure of 1) power build out 2) data center build outs and 3) GPU creations (that will get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, etc.)

This is all my opinion, at least.

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Posted

There is an interesting book that was published last year called BOOM if anyone cares to read more about productive bubbles (or just search productive bubbles and lots of examples will be summarized via AI for you):

Quote

Byrne Hobart wrote a book recently, Boom, that expanded on Carlota Perez’s bubble investment dynamics, and I think his important addition was this idea that you need a lot of simultaneous parallel investments and developments, which bubbles make happen at the same time

 

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Posted
1 minute ago, Vegas64 said:

1) power build out 2) data center build outs and 3) GPU creations (that will get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, etc.)

1) this is completely decoupled from reality. So far, power build outs have been elmo dropping dozens of unregulated NatGas plants next to his datacenters in TN and poisoning whole towns and their populations.

2) genAI datacenters are not generalizable to other problem domains. They're basically massive fucking racks of GPU's with a shitload of cooling and power attached that consume obscene amounts of energy for their usable output. Plus, they're eating all the oxygen in the space and forcing other firms to reconsider their own on-prem tech buildouts for general compute

3) GPU's have only gotten more expensive over the last decade. There are not more foundries coming online (accessible to the US) to keep up with the demand for top-of-the-line chips. EVERYONE is going to TSMC, and they are bottlenecked to hell and back again. Plus, these genAI GPU's are being ran HARD and have a lifespan of one to three years (source)

 

So they're building a bubble that is gonna pop and leave a bunch of literally toxic, rotting assets that will not continue to deliver value to pay off CapEx deprecation

Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Captainant said:

1) this is completely decoupled from reality. So far, power build outs have been elmo dropping dozens of unregulated NatGas plants next to his datacenters in TN and poisoning whole towns and their populations.

2) genAI datacenters are not generalizable to other problem domains. They're basically massive fucking racks of GPU's with a shitload of cooling and power attached that consume obscene amounts of energy for their usable output. Plus, they're eating all the oxygen in the space and forcing other firms to reconsider their own on-prem tech buildouts for general compute

3) GPU's have only gotten more expensive over the last decade. There are not more foundries coming online (accessible to the US) to keep up with the demand for top-of-the-line chips. EVERYONE is going to TSMC, and they are bottlenecked to hell and back again. Plus, these genAI GPU's are being ran HARD and have a lifespan of one to three years (source)

 

So they're building a bubble that is gonna pop and leave a bunch of literally toxic, rotting assets that will not continue to deliver value to pay off CapEx deprecation

It's a good discussion and you might be completely right and you sound like you have a unique and lived perspective. Let me say that before I respectfully push back on a few things:

1) Power build outs (energy generation) is absolutely happening and in full focus. From coal being en vogue again to small (and large) nuclear research and innovation and MOU's and JV's and acquisitions from the likes of the hyperscalers and Meta to legacy utilities pumping out more via renewables, coal, whatever (and we are all subsidizing AI btw with higher energy costs that is peanut buttered to our residential bills, don't believe me go check and do YoY compares). Everyone recognizes that building out power generation is fundamental and is everyone's primary focus (it's the primary bottleneck when you extrapolate out and it's not a secret).

2) Ironically enough I've read if it wasn't for crypto and specifically bitcoin we'd be even more behind on understanding and operationalizing power buildouts for AI as you described it. BTC miners were positioned perfectly as they had long term (cheap) power contracts, had land and power and access to the gw that are today scarce (saw NRG, shout out to the Houston Texans, did a deal to acquire 12 gbs which literally doubled their stock if you look at the last few years). From what I understand that's exactly what CoreWeave did as a pivot.

3) From what I understand we are just now scaling the Grace Blackwell era. Given time (I'm talking 10 years not 2) GPUs will become a commodity as all new technology eventually becomes in time.

Edited by Vegas64
Posted

Like a lot of people in the industry, I am required to do "something" with AI. No real direction, just do something. I passed down the mandate to everyone in my org earlier this year and a couple of people have come back with some useful things but most have not. 

There are just so many situations where it doesn't make sense to implement an AI use case that offers any benefit nor justifies the cost. 

What is funny is that so many people have been mandated to do something with AI and everyone has their own little AI projects, the cost has resulted in a new direction to consolidate AI projects. Shit got too expensive. 

Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, F250 said:

Like a lot of people in the industry, I am required to do "something" with AI. No real direction, just do something. I passed down the mandate to everyone in my org earlier this year and a couple of people have come back with some useful things but most have not. 

There are just so many situations where it doesn't make sense to implement an AI use case that offers any benefit nor justifies the cost. 

What is funny is that so many people have been mandated to do something with AI and everyone has their own little AI projects, the cost has resulted in a new direction to consolidate AI projects. Shit got too expensive. 

Corporate CYA I guess? I think it's hard to argue it's NOT executive malpractice if you don't have an AI strategy or think about incorporating AI for operational efficiency or bottom line gain since like 2021-2022ish. No ELT or BoD would allow anyone to be iconoclastic about AI in a time such as this.

Edited by Vegas64
Posted
2 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Corporate CYA I guess? I think it's hard to argue it's NOT executive malpractice if you don't have an AI strategy or think about incorporating AI for operational efficiency or bottom line gain since like 2021-2022ish. No ELT or BoD would allow anyone to be iconoclastic about AI in a time such as this.

Good Talk Russ GIF by Winkel

Posted
58 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

2) Ironically enough I've read if it wasn't for crypto and specifically bitcoin we'd be even more behind on understanding and operationalizing power buildouts for AI as you described it. BTC miners were positioned perfectly as they had long term (cheap) power contracts, had land and power and access to the gw that are today scarce (saw NRG, shout out to the Houston Texans, did a deal to acquire 12 gbs which literally doubled their stock if you look at the last few years). From what I understand that's exactly what CoreWeave did as a pivot.

Lmfao yeah dude we're ALL paying for that grid build out. Electricity rates are high and only going up BTC mining is literally just wasting energy and capitalizing entropy. Those schemes would not be viable if it weren't for our state paying them subsidies. Fuckouttahere

Posted
2 hours ago, F250 said:

Like a lot of people in the industry, I am required to do "something" with AI. No real direction, just do something. I passed down the mandate to everyone in my org earlier this year and a couple of people have come back with some useful things but most have not. 

There are just so many situations where it doesn't make sense to implement an AI use case that offers any benefit nor justifies the cost. 

What is funny is that so many people have been mandated to do something with AI and everyone has their own little AI projects, the cost has resulted in a new direction to consolidate AI projects. Shit got too expensive. 

We have reached the point where "everything's gotta have AI!"  I'm surprised I can buy a box of cereal without it having a sticker on there that says "NOW FEATURING AI!!!!"

No matter the industry, product, or project, YOU GOTTA GET YOUR DIP-TET!!!  DO YOU HAVE YOUR DIP-TET???  It's not problem-identification, then evaluate the full slate of potential solutions (which might include AI for some).  It's "here's a cool new thing!  Apply it everywhere!"

Layer onto the the outright scam of the circular investment/purchases that is AI capex....fucking hell.

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Posted
41 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imagine suggesting this to the creator of maybe the greatest TV series of all time. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.df596f2640b68805ee2f21c5acc2b6a9.jpeg

Awesome. Thanks for sharing. Love this.

Posted

Pro tip:  Next time your boss tells you that you should see if something can be done quicker with the help of AI, tell him "I'd rather put a gun in my mouth" and start punching yourself like Edward Norton in Fight Club.

fight-club-the-narrator-punching-himself

Bonus points if you've used Sora before hand to create a deepfake of your boss kicking the shit out of you that you can post to LinkedIn immediately after.

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Posted
1 hour ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imagine suggesting this to the creator of maybe the greatest TV series of all time. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.df596f2640b68805ee2f21c5acc2b6a9.jpeg

FWIW, Ari Shapiro’s final day at NPR was Oct 1.  Sigh.

Posted

It's all dumbass project managers talk about.

When are we  going to AI?

Whats the roadmap for AI?

Are we AI compatible?

And other completely uninformed questions they pull out of their asses to try and look tech savvy.

My answer is always, who knows. 

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Posted
2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imagine suggesting this to the creator of maybe the greatest TV series of all time. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.df596f2640b68805ee2f21c5acc2b6a9.jpeg

I admire David Simon's restraint.  It makes my fucking blood boil that so many people are casually cool with AI being involved in creative arts. 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I admire David Simon's restraint.  It makes my fucking blood boil that so many people are casually cool with AI being involved in creative arts. 

The crazy thing is - generative AI is definitionally producing an "average" or "center of gravity" of all the data it's taken as training data to set its weights and biases within the neural network. At a mathematical level, it will produce average outputs. In some cases, like boilerplate code/text generation or simple data transformations, that's insanely powerful. But it's NOT something that will come up with new ideas or expand on a vision. It literally CAN'T do that on its own.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Captainant said:

The crazy thing is - generative AI is definitionally producing an "average" or "center of gravity" of all the data it's taken as training data to set its weights and biases within the neural network. At a mathematical level, it will produce average outputs. In some cases, like boilerplate code/text generation or simple data transformations, that's insanely powerful. But it's NOT something that will come up with new ideas or expand on a vision. It literally CAN'T do that on its own.

Creative Generative AI is about as useful as my thoughts after smoking a shit ton of pot and drinking booze all night, when I would just start spitting out random words.

Posted
It's all dumbass project managers talk about.
When are we  going to AI?
Whats the roadmap for AI?
Are we AI compatible?
And other completely uninformed questions they pull out of their asses to try and look tech savvy.
My answer is always, who knows. 

My answer is 3/26, which is when I finally get the fucking fedRAMP moderate check box on my platform and can go balls deep into federal defense integrators.

Demo’d a CICD pipeline AI SaaS tool today for a defense contractor that in 6 months I can sell for $5m.

They still haven’t figured out they let a money grubbing hippie librul peacenik into the JADC2 kill cycle money go brrrrr ecosystem.
Posted
5 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:


My answer is 3/26, which is when I finally get the fucking fedRAMP moderate check box on my platform and can go balls deep into federal defense integrators.

Demo’d a CICD pipeline AI SaaS tool today for a defense contractor that in 6 months I can sell for $5m.

They still haven’t figured out they let a money grubbing hippie librul peacenik into the JADC2 kill cycle money go brrrrr ecosystem.

Because I am mentally challenged, I've been focusing on Generative AI with RAG and Cohere Command R with Python/LangChain to set up a chatbot to answer GRC questions. Basically, I've been feeding it a shit town of NIST/FedRAMP/ITIL/ISO documents for a chatbot to answer compliance questions. Surprisingly, after a few months it's been fairly useful. I mainly use it now to check my questions before running it by my Fed GRC team. Anyway, Yeah FedRAMP moderate, I remember accomplishing that back in the Project Jedi days. 

Posted
Because I am mentally challenged, I've been focusing on Generative AI with RAG and Cohere Command R with Python/LangChain to set up a chatbot to answer GRC questions. Basically, I've been feeding it a shit town of NIST/FedRAMP/ITIL/ISO documents for a chatbot to answer compliance questions. Surprisingly, after a few months it's been fairly useful. I mainly use it now to check my questions before running it by my Fed GRC team. Anyway, Yeah FedRAMP moderate, I remember accomplishing that back in the Project Jedi days. 

Yeah. I was doing all that too.
But then the alarm went off on the fryer, and the manager was all up in my shit because we had like 12 orders backed up in the drive thru.
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Posted
3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Imagine suggesting this to the creator of maybe the greatest TV series of all time. 
 

image.thumb.jpeg.df596f2640b68805ee2f21c5acc2b6a9.jpeg

I saw that earlier today and I swear I thought it was parody and was slightly amused. Wow. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, BearSchlong said:


My answer is 3/26, which is when I finally get the fucking fedRAMP moderate check box on my platform and can go balls deep into federal defense integrators.

Demo’d a CICD pipeline AI SaaS tool today for a defense contractor that in 6 months I can sell for $5m.

They still haven’t figured out they let a money grubbing hippie librul peacenik into the JADC2 kill cycle money go brrrrr ecosystem.

i like money GIF

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Posted
11 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I admire David Simon's restraint.  It makes my fucking blood boil that so many people are casually cool with AI being involved in creative arts. 

Mix of engineer and MBA brain: art is a problem to solve in a way that returns shareholder value more efficiently. 

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