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Posted (edited)

Saw a headline today that OpenAI plans to spend $1T over the next five years.

Their most recent revenue is estimate is $12.7B for 2025.

Everyone knows this is a bubble but no one knows for sure when it will pop.  I can bet on one thing, it's not going to pop until all these scams go public.  The oligarchs have to cash out before the rug gets pulled.

Edited by Fudge Nuggets
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Posted
12 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Saw a headline today that OpenAI plans to spend $1T over the next five years.

Their most recent revenue is estimate is $12.7B for 2025.

Everyone knows this is a bubble but no one knows for sure when it will pop.  I can bet on one thing, it's not going to pop until all these scams go public.  The oligarchs have to cash out before the rug gets pulled.

I don't know exactly what is going to happen.   Or when it will happen.  But I know with 100% certainty that the bolded WILL happen.

Because the laws of this "capitalist, freedom!" economy are (1) rules for thee, not for me, and (2) privatize gains, socialize losses.

And we have half the country defending that approach to the death, and calling anything that dares question it "EBIL COMMUNISM!" 

Posted
5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I don't know exactly what is going to happen.   Or when it will happen.  But I know with 100% certainty that the bolded WILL happen.

Because the laws of this "capitalist, freedom!" economy are (1) rules for thee, not for me, and (2) privatize gains, socialize losses.

And we have half the country defending that approach to the death, and calling anything that dares question it "EBIL COMMUNISM!" 

From what I've been reading and can gather, I think most people are comfortable with the ebil communism in terms of national security like rare earth minerals and Intel, as they should be.

That said, of course a bubble is going to burst and of course the sharps and the monied are going to more or less be fine, but not because of some evil nefarious backroom abilities, but because they are the market makers and their cashing out is going to be the timing and cause of the collapse IMO.

Beyond AI, the market is in need of a correction and that's the scary part for us Jimmy and Joe's with one or two million in net worth and not 100 or 200 who can stomach the crash and take advantage of it by buying cheap.

Posted

There are some cool things video-wise, like this - I’ve used a similar tool from a genealogy service on some old photos and they match what relatives remember (or what I saw as a kid).  In the below video, you can compare a few of the figures like Ingrid Bergman in Casablanca to real life film footage.

They did a fine job with Cléo de Mérode

 

Posted
9 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Soon, you will be able to make the porn of your dreams.

We made ChatGPT pretty restrictive to make sure we were being careful with mental health issues. We realize this made it less useful/enjoyable to many users who had no mental health problems, but given the seriousness of the issue we wanted to get this right.

Now that we have been able to mitigate the serious mental health issues and have new tools, we are going to be able to safely relax the restrictions in most cases.

In a few weeks, we plan to put out a new version of ChatGPT that allows people to have a personality that behaves more like what people liked about 4o (we hope it will be better!). If you want your ChatGPT to respond in a very human-like way, or use a ton of emoji, or act like a friend, ChatGPT should do it (but only if you want it, not because we are usage-maxxing).

In December, as we roll out age-gating more fully and as part of our “treat adult users like adults” principle, we will allow even more, like erotica for verified adults.

That's going to go over well with CTOs and CISOs who will soon realize their very same APIs used to assemble boardroom presentations can be intermixed with hentai pr0n and age-verification PII collection.

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Posted

Sam Altman is doing a delightful job of diluting the legitimacy of his product, where over the last quarter, he's attempting to be everything to everyone, guaranteeing his platform will be trusted to nobody.  He's recently placed or proposed the following:

  • Walmart's mass-market retail and e-commerce partnership
  • AI compute infrastructure and energy
  • Custom chip manufacturing, which I'm not sure is even tangible
  • LinkedIn-replacement employment and jobs search
  • Robotics and consumer embedded AI
  • AI-driven digital identity systems
  • Sora's social media AI slop

And now... adult content and generative media experimentation.

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Posted

The rise of AI NSFW Companions is going to break so many brains. This will be a billion times worse than that time Screech got hooked on the attention of the waitresses at Skeeters in Saved by the Bell. 

 

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Posted
7 hours ago, F250 said:

The rise of AI NSFW Companions is going to break so many brains. This will be a billion times worse than that time Screech got hooked on the attention of the waitresses at Skeeters in Saved by the Bell. 

 

But honey, my AI companion really enjoys ass-to-mouth.

Posted (edited)

One of my favorite YouTube channels - deep dives on classic sci-fi and literature/films/TV.

He uses the point of people claiming to have remembered seeing some scenes in the original Star Wars movie that would have basically been impossible to be there.   The missing scene was in fact filmed, and most Star Wars fans have now seen parts of it or at least heard about it - stills from the scene made it into 1970s picture books, novels, comic books, etc.

From the perspective of a historian, there are paper trails, contemporary interviews, etc. that cast doubt on those claims of people having seen it in the 1970s, and that all goes out the window with AI in the future. 

Only 10 minutes, but sobering to think that future historians trying to track down what is or is not true, and prove or disprove collective memories, is going to be near impossible because of AI.

edit: he makes a point that people could be convicted or even killed because of bogus video in the future,

 

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
18 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

Sam Altman is doing a delightful job of diluting the legitimacy of his product, where over the last quarter, he's attempting to be everything to everyone, guaranteeing his platform will be trusted to nobody.  He's recently placed or proposed the following:

  • Walmart's mass-market retail and e-commerce partnership
  • AI compute infrastructure and energy
  • Custom chip manufacturing, which I'm not sure is even tangible
  • LinkedIn-replacement employment and jobs search
  • Robotics and consumer embedded AI
  • AI-driven digital identity systems
  • Sora's social media AI slop

And now... adult content and generative media experimentation.

Yes, this is the lifecycle of enshitiffication on all online platforms. 
 

1. Create something useful or enjoyable for a targeted set of people. 
 

2. Continually cast a bigger and bigger net so that corporate customers see the value— to do this you have to get the 80 iq set on the same platform as the geniuses and the working stiffs. 
 

3. Shift the utility to respond to business customer desires rather than users. Platform is overwhelmed with corporate, paid content and activities. 
 

4. Stop providing services to the businesses now that they are captured. Platform reaches end-stage shit: slop, optimized ads for shit, thirst traps, scams. 
 

The Oatmeal cartoon above really spoke to me. The old weird internet was great because even if something was shit or crazy, it was all there intentionally; someone made the choice to create the page or write the article or even make the ad.  Those old weird “one trick” banner adds and pop ups were the first creeping inkling of non-humans controlling what we see. Generative AI is where this all ends: robots continually reheating stuff that has already been created in worse and worse ways in the service of idiots who cannot fully finish and express an idea. 
 

It’s really a nightmare, and it’s empowering the worst type of people who imagine themselves creative. “I have a great idea for a movie, but I just don’t have the time to write a script.” 

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Posted
31 minutes ago, Chopper said:

ai not only wants to fuck, it wants you to take heroin. Or perhaps kratom.

 

That AI should completely intersect with RFK Jr. is perhaps the perfect encapsulation of this craptastic timeline.

Posted
1 hour ago, Chopper said:

ai not only wants to fuck, it wants you to take heroin. Or perhaps kratom.

 

Reddit Answers grounds it's responses from Reddit posts. lol

This would be like if Surly had a Generative AI service and somebody asked for anniversary gift ideas for their wife.

The response would likely be "Many Surly posters expect you to share pictures of your wife, preferably nude as this is not only a custom but a rule. Also you might consider PM'ing Derka. Mule Dick!"

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Posted
5 minutes ago, F250 said:

Reddit Answers grounds it's responses from Reddit posts. lol

This would be like if Surly had a Generative AI service and somebody asked for anniversary gift ideas for their wife.

The response would likely be "Many Surly posters expect you to share pictures of your wife, preferably nude as this is not only a custom but a rule. Also you might consider PM'ing Derka. Mule Dick!"

 

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Immamac right now:

seth-meyers-freakin-great-idea.gif

 

@immamac

 

 

 

Do It Now GIF by HBO Max

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Posted
21 hours ago, Gravy Train said:

Sam Altman is doing a delightful job of diluting the legitimacy of his product, where over the last quarter, he's attempting to be everything to everyone, guaranteeing his platform will be trusted to nobody.  He's recently placed or proposed the following:

  • Walmart's mass-market retail and e-commerce partnership
  • AI compute infrastructure and energy
  • Custom chip manufacturing, which I'm not sure is even tangible
  • LinkedIn-replacement employment and jobs search
  • Robotics and consumer embedded AI
  • AI-driven digital identity systems
  • Sora's social media AI slop

And now... adult content and generative media experimentation.

Quibble: The Wal Mart in-app purchase thing is brilliant.

Posted
3 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Yes, this is the lifecycle of enshitiffication on all online platforms. 
 

1. Create something useful or enjoyable for a targeted set of people. 
 

2. Continually cast a bigger and bigger net so that corporate customers see the value— to do this you have to get the 80 iq set on the same platform as the geniuses and the working stiffs. 
 

3. Shift the utility to respond to business customer desires rather than users. Platform is overwhelmed with corporate, paid content and activities. 
 

4. Stop providing services to the businesses now that they are captured. Platform reaches end-stage shit: slop, optimized ads for shit, thirst traps, scams. 

I've read your posts a lot so I know you are a smart guy. Surely you understand that "enshittification" in almost every case, is trying to go from adoption and growing a market/user base, to monetization so you can have a profitable (or at least a sustainabile) business.

Your first bullet point is almost always the loss leader and unsustainabile by design and business (math). 

I read somehwere that right now, as of today, OpenAI (even with all their funding, valuation, cash infusions, partnerships, and paying customers) with thier couple billions in ARR while operating at triple the billions in burn rate is today spending $3 to earn $1.

That's not going to last forever, just like every other "free" or "cheap" software/service that began as a market grab fueled by VC. 

Posted
38 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I read somehwere that right now, as of today, OpenAI (even with all their funding, valuation, cash infusions, partnerships, and paying customers) with thier couple billions in ARR while operating at triple the billions in burn rate is today spending $3 to earn $1.

That's not going to last forever, just like every other "free" or "cheap" software/service that began as a market grab fueled by VC. 

I don't think you're really wrong here.  But here's the problem.

When you have (1) a product that just can't be attractive and draw in and please consumers without spending $3 to make $1, then (2).....maybe it's a fucking shit product.  And if what you have is a shit product, then the only way you can finally monetize it is by fucking people over.  That's it.  That's the whole thought, thanks for coming to my TED talk.

Posted
53 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I've read your posts a lot so I know you are a smart guy. Surely you understand that "enshittification" in almost every case, is trying to go from adoption and growing a market/user base, to monetization so you can have a profitable (or at least a sustainabile) business.

Your first bullet point is almost always the loss leader and unsustainabile by design and business (math). 

I read somehwere that right now, as of today, OpenAI (even with all their funding, valuation, cash infusions, partnerships, and paying customers) with thier couple billions in ARR while operating at triple the billions in burn rate is today spending $3 to earn $1.

That's not going to last forever, just like every other "free" or "cheap" software/service that began as a market grab fueled by VC. 

I’ll come back to this. You’re not wrong, you’ve identified accurately that nearly all start-ups (especially tech) come to play with a built in enshitification model.  The issues is that this is a fundamentally predatory business model that suffocates innovation and uses rent-seeking strategies to preserve monopolies and cartels.  
 

The model is: make something good for cheap, burn through VC cash till alternatives/competitors are broke, impose artificial costs to prevent customers from leaving, then make money by making the thing worse for everyone. And it’s allowed to happen because of policy and regulatory choices. 

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Posted
On 10/13/2025 at 11:58 AM, Captainant said:

The railroad "boom" and "bubble" from building in the late 1800's absolutely left useful infrastructre over. Can you enumerate some of the use cases for these leftover AI chips? Please, enlighten me. Because they are specifically NOT general compute, and are only fit for this extremely specialized usecase. Further, the hardware purchases are decaying silicon assets, not steel fucking rails. You don't have to replace rails every few years just to keep burning $500,000,000,000 a year

Bitchin framerates on muh gamez, man.

Posted
42 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Bitchin framerates on muh gamez, man.

Driver support is doodoo with enterprise cards for gaming, you're always better off with a 5090 for gaems

Posted
2 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Driver support is doodoo with enterprise cards for gaming, you're always better off with a 5090 for gaems

Yeah I assumed something like that was true.  Just talking shit.

Posted
2 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I’ll come back to this. You’re not wrong, you’ve identified accurately that nearly all start-ups (especially tech) come to play with a built in enshitification model.  The issues is that this is a fundamentally predatory business model that suffocates innovation and uses rent-seeking strategies to preserve monopolies and cartels.  
 

The model is: make something good for cheap, burn through VC cash till alternatives/competitors are broke, impose artificial costs to prevent customers from leaving, then make money by making the thing worse for everyone. And it’s allowed to happen because of policy and regulatory choices. 

To the bolded, but I don't think that's exactly how it plays out.

In fact, two economists I think won a Nobel Peace Prize this week arguing the opposite

Quote

 

Aghion and Howitt explained the role of “creative destruction,” an endless process in which new products displace older products. Aghion and Howitt, who split the second half of the award, argue that “competition for profit is what causes you to put in the effort to make a better product,” Brian Albrecht, the chief economist for the International Center for Law & Economics.

“That in turn drives economic growth,” he added. For example, the release of the iPhone decimated BlackBerry’s market share.

The laureates warned that growth is not inevitable. Immigration and openness to trade are key components for growth, the winners told The Times. Aghion expressed optimism that A.I. could be a large growth driver, but favored policies that promoted competition and did not consolidate power to just a few winners.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Vegas64 said:

I've read your posts a lot so I know you are a smart guy. Surely you understand that "enshittification" in almost every case, is trying to go from adoption and growing a market/user base, to monetization so you can have a profitable (or at least a sustainabile) business.

Your first bullet point is almost always the loss leader and unsustainabile by design and business (math). 

I read somehwere that right now, as of today, OpenAI (even with all their funding, valuation, cash infusions, partnerships, and paying customers) with thier couple billions in ARR while operating at triple the billions in burn rate is today spending $3 to earn $1.

That's not going to last forever, just like every other "free" or "cheap" software/service that began as a market grab fueled by VC. 

The huge part of what you're missing is they (the type of start-ups you're talking about) were shooting to take market share -- legit market and actual profits -- away from other companies. For gai there is no existing market share or profit that they're targeting. Google ai, for example, is taking money away from their own ads and their own ad customers. Maybe these consumer-facing companies find a load of profits in making porn and taking away profits from onlyfans, but I doubt it. No survey has ever shown any more than a small fraction of people are willing to pay actual money to subscribe to ai. In most instances even the businesses that use it have to force it on their employees, and the employees will try it but then use quickly subsides. Because it's crap. It doesn't save most people time. You can't trust it. 

Quote

The Nobel committee said Mokyr “demonstrated that if innovations are to succeed one another in a self-generating process, we not only need to know that something works, but we also need to have scientific explanations for why.”

I mean...lol...gai is a black box. There is no explanation for why it works. It just doesn't. 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted
 

So….the last paragraph…literally the 180 degree opposite of our current system and approach.

That’s 956’s point. Combine our VC culture with our economic system of complete oligarchical regulatory capture and government-enforced consolidation of economic power in those oligarchs (and strident anti-immigration, anti-trade, and such), and you get fuckery all the way down. “Growth” is an illusion created by a society that is consuming its consumers. It’s perfectly apt that AI outfits boost sales by buying their own products, really - fits perfectly with the zeitgeist.
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Posted
47 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

To the bolded, but I don't think that's exactly how it plays out.

In fact, two economists I think won a Nobel Peace Prize this week arguing the opposite

 

Dude, Apple is the enshitifier par excellence (I type on an iPhone). Here’s a vignette:

I’m being issued a new credit card, and it’s going to be a pain in the ass for me if I decide to renew my Spotify subscription. Why? Because I can’t renew it via the app. Why can’t I renew it via the app? Because the App Store takes a 30 percent (30 percent!) vig from anything sold via an app in its App Store. 
 

So Spotify can either lose the massive global iPhone market, or it can pay the 30, or it can make the user experience shitty and I will have to go via the browser to renew (I’ve forgotten my password) and honestly I may just say fuck it at this point. 
 

And here’s the thing— Apple doesn’t charge all apps the same. Apple wants me to use Apple Music and there I can subscribe via the app.  And sometimes Apple picks winners— Uber does not pay a 30 percent, but smaller ride shares do. Competition! 
 

And of course I’m totally locked into Apple. Two factor authentication. Photos. Shit in the cloud.  When I need a new phone I for sure want to just image my iPhone to the new one; trying to move to Android makes me shudder. And— key point— my choices are Apple and Android, basically, for a functioning OS. And also it’s a felony to jailbreak my iPhone to move shit. 
 

Remember, iPhone is supposed to be easier. User friendly. Seamless. Unless I want to use a streaming service I like more than Apple Music. Then it’s not, and that’s enshitification. Pure rent-seeking; and we could regulate this shit and say “Apple, you basically have a monopoly on apps. You have to extend them all the same terms of use and fees.” We could say “we aren’t going to make it a felony for people to move their own data from one phone to another.” 
 

And this is everywhere. Getting commercials on Amazon Prime streaming— after you cut the cord and bought a sub— is enshitification. The entire Amazon search is a grift scheme designed to have sellers compete for how much they will pay for product placement and you the buyer have to work harder to find what you want in a sea of drop-shop slop. That’s enshitification. I am sure it’s creating shareholder value but it’s not creating value. 
 

And back to AI— what OpenAI is doing is getting OpenAI in EVERYTHING. Walmart, your bank, whatever. And then once it’s there and you can’t get a toilet plunger at the Wal-Mart without it Altman will jack up the price and reduce support and add on features to make it even more impossible to dislodge. And that’s where the shareholder value comes in. This is not “creative destruction.” 

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