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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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This is where I’m at. We’re playing a championship game against a team that got wrecked by Georgia Southern and UCF. The league was absolute shit this year, and we had too many close games. I think those are factors the committee with cite when they screw us over.
Is it screwing us over if it's true?
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The analysis is simple: root for Alabama, Oregon, Iowa, and Louisville. Assuming Texas wins: 

1. Louisville wins, we in;

2. Iowa wins, we in and Big 10 left out; (not going to happen unfortunately)

3. Oregon and Bama win; becomes a 3 team beauty contest that we have some pretty compelling arguments on, 2 of the 3 get in. I think Texas and Bama has a higher chance than the other configurations in this scenario, but only marginally so.  

Absent chaos, a non-champ isn't getting in. And there aren't going to be 2 teams from the same conference, especially since all the teams up for that will have already played each other and sorted out who deserves to go.  

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1 minute ago, Frank Drebin said:

The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

I still think we have a small shot even if Oregon wins, probably depends on how each of us look in CCG

Louisville or Iowa wins - 95%+ Texas is in with a win

Bama Wins - ~70% Texas is in (again depends on how those games go down)

Oregon Wins - ~20% Texas is in (another eye test)

 

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7 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

And that article is 10000% fucking wrong. Syntex did an analysis definitively proving that narrative was false.

Everything about that article is wrong.

First of all, reporters ASKED Mack Brown about bowl selections, and he said, "This team deserves to be in the BCS."  I'm pretty sure that's what he said verbatim.  That's hardly "begging and pleading."  That prompted a response from Aaron Rodgers about how "we're too classy to say anything like that."  

More than that, Texas went DOWN in the rankings after Mack made that statement. 

The NEXT week, Cal played a make-up game (early non-con game cancelled because of hurricane threat) with Southern Miss, who was a sub-.500 team, and that game went deep into the 4th quarter before Cal won it.  **THEN** Cal lost some points in the polls, allowing Texas to take the Rose Bowl spot in the BCS formula.  

Recall also that the PAC champion was USC, and they skipped the Rose Bowl to play in the national championship, and for a while, it looked like Cal was going to get that spot, and the media was WILD about perennial loser Cal getting a spot in the Rose Bowl.  And then not only did that get lost, but the spot was taken by a Texas team that nobody outside this state roots for.

That SI article is bullshit.  

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16 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

I know we’ve blown leads and won close.

TCU Kstate Houston.

Who else in the top 4 has had close games to not good teams? I know fsu had some so has Washington.

Pretty much everyone has warts.

Alabama at home against Arkansas and everyone remembers the USF game. 

Washington needed a pick six to beat Arizona State at home and struggled with Stanford.

Oregon needed a big comeback to beat Texas Tech (but they are actually decent)

Michigan's only close game other than Ohio State was Maryland.

Georgia struggled at Auburn but otherwise blew out everyone.

 

Edited by The Dog
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9 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

Milroe has been good pretty much all year.  It's not like he sucked when they played us.  He made several plays against us under pressure that were basically the only reason Alabama scored touchdowns against us.  This narrative that Milroe was bad early in the year and that's why Texas won but he has improved and now Bama is clearly better than Texas due to such improvement is bullshit.

Milroe Pass Rating by game:

MTSU -- 217.8

Texas -- 140.8

Ole Miss -- 177.1

Miss State -- 198.1

A&M -- 169.3

Arkansas -- 174.2

Tennessee -- 176.6

LSU -- 145.2

Kentucky -- 193.4

Chattanooga -- 246.6

UGA -- 184.4

He has been remarkably consistent all year long as a passer, despite what moutbreather SEC fan claims.

Yes, and his QBR, which includes rushing stats, is even more consistent (he went off against LSU).

Using ESPN's Defensive Efficiency Rankings, Milroe's QBR against:

Top quartile defenses (UT, TAMU, Auburn, Tenn, Ole Miss) = 72.5, which is very good considering the level of competition, and only 2 points lower than Ewers' total QBR on the season.  Milroe's worst QBR of 65.5 came against Texas, which not coincidentally has the best defense he's faced all season.  65.5 is solid.

Defenses ranked 25th thru 50th percentiles (Kentucky, Miss St, Ark) = 85.5

Bottom half (MTSU, LSU, Chattanooga) = 93.0

To put that in context, in the game MIlroe was benched, Alabama QBs combined for QBR around 13, which is horrendous.  USF has the 118th ranked defensive efficiency per ESPN.

He's a good QB who was slightly less good against the best defenses he faced.

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Bama beats Georgia, Louisville beats FSU, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State

Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

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9 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

So Barrie is assuming FSU loses

There has been a good bit of discussion in the media about the possibility of a 13-0 FSU being left out based on the QB injury.  I'm not saying it should happen or that it's likely, but Barrie isn't the only one saying FSU should be jumped by a stronger 1 loss team.  

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17 minutes ago, utexas8 said:

I know we’ve blown leads and won close.

TCU Kstate Houston.

Who else in the top 4 has had close games to not good teams? I know fsu had some so has Washington.

All of them. Michigan has been the most dominant. 

  • Georgia - 1 score game against Auburn (talk about a weird team); pulled away late versus Mizzou, Georgia Tech,  and South Carolina, but still close games.  
  • Michigan - 1 score game against Maryland; otherwise only close games were against "good teams" Ohio State and Penn State. 
  • FSU - struggles galore, 1 score against Miami, pulled away late against Florida, 1 score against Clemson, 2 points over BC, 1 score versus Duke;
  • Washington - 1 score versus Oregon State, Washington State, Utah, Stanford, and Arizona; pulled away late versus Stanford and USC
Edited by Dahobbs
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29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas still has the best win of the regular season of any team, period, and that’s what you can control. 

Not by the AP poll (which is a questionable metric, to be sure).  Still, if we consider their rankings, we'd have the 4th best win to date:

UW over UO 

UM over tOSU 

OU over UT 

UT over 'bama

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2 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:



Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

I'll be shocked if SECSECSEC gets shut out of the playoff regardless of what else happens.

IMO, there are 3 spots taken (Michigan, SEC and PAC) and 1 "open" (FSU, if they win, or TX)

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1 minute ago, orange dream said:

 

I'll be shocked if SECSECSEC gets shut out of the playoff regardless of what else happens.

IMO, there are 3 spots taken (Michigan, SEC and PAC) and 1 "open" (FSU, if they win, or TX)

Just an FYI, literally all of the Bama board is resigned to the fact that they will not get in over Texas because they lost head to head. So I definitely think the SEC can and will get shut out. If Texas looks good in their win against OSU and it comes down to Bama vs Texas, we are going over them. Because, you know, that game was played on the field and we won. 

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7 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Bama beats Georgia, Louisville beats FSU, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. Oregon - 99%
3. Texas - 88%
4. Bama - 84%
5. Ohio State

Bama beats Georgia, all other favored teams win:
1. Michigan - 99%
2. FSU - 98%
3. Oregon - 94%
4. Texas - 57%
5. Bama - 43%

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/story/_/page/cfbplayoffpredictor/cfb-playoff-predictor

ESPN has Texas favored to make the playoffs over Bama and leave the SEC on the outside looking in. 

That all looks way too reasonable to have been produced by ESPN.  Maybe we don't have a chance....    The only thing I'd question with those numbers is that Bama and Texas are only at 84/88% with a Bama win and Louisville win.  I can't see any way either would be left out in that situation.  Do they really think there is a chance tOSU could jump back in?  

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13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Not by the AP poll (which is a questionable metric, to be sure).  Still, if we consider their rankings, we'd have the 4th best win to date:

UW over UO 

UM over tOSU 

OU over UT 

UT over 'bama

Note that Texas' win over Bama was the only one on the road and also the only one by double digits.

Washington beat Oregon at home by 3

Michigan beat tOSU at home by 6

OU beat Texas by 4 at a neutral site.

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Just now, Texas Wahoo said:

Note that Texas' win over Bama was the only one on the road and also the only one by double digits.

Washington beat Oregon at home by 3

Michigan beat tOSU at home by 6

OU beat Texas by 4 at a neutral site.

No doubt.  I don't expect the average fan (or even the average committee member) to put that much critical thought into it, especially with this magical/mythological "Alabama resurgence since the early season".

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51 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

At this point, I'd rather UW just win out.  Do not want the taste left in my mouth of 1 loss Oregon going in ahead of us.

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31 minutes ago, The_Great_Hornsby said:

Just an FYI, literally all of the Bama board is resigned to the fact that they will not get in over Texas because they lost head to head. So I definitely think the SEC can and will get shut out. If Texas looks good in their win against OSU and it comes down to Bama vs Texas, we are going over them. Because, you know, that game was played on the field and we won. 

I was at the game in Tuscaloosa. It was glorious.  I was also at the Cotton Bowl on October 11, 2008. It was also glorious.  Unfortunately, the team we beat that day took our spot in the National Championship game that year.

If the SEC is shut out of the playoff this year it will be the first time in the CFP era that the SEC is excluded, and even going back to the BCS, era the first time since 2005 that an SEC team didn't get the nod in the beauty contest.  Not saying it's right, but it is the way it is.  I hope the trend breaks in our favor if necessary, but not counting on it.

Having said all that, I'm standing behind the Lousville cheerleaders (especially one) this week...

image.jpeg.44a23fea080abc17b1767993b4192cb8.jpeg

Edited by orange dream
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19 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

No doubt.  I don't expect the average fan (or even the average committee member) to put that much critical thought into it, especially with this magical/mythological "Alabama resurgence since the early season".

Somehow Texas seems to be on the wrong side of that mythical "playing better than anyone" bullshit.  In 2008, OU was the **consensus**, no-doubt-about-it best team in the country, and Texas was tougher, better, and mentally stronger, and won the game going away (OU spent most of their second half drives punting, fake punting, and punter flopping).  

And then 2 months later, the media went right back to "OU is just playing better than anyone right now" while snubbing the Texas team that - by any objective metrics - should have been playing for the MNC.

 

Edited by Paul Wesley
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55 minutes ago, Frank Drebin said:

The winner of Oregon-UW gets in.  Though I would prefer Oregon wins.

We get in if we win and either Louisville, Iowa, or Bama wins.  Unless Bama destroys UGA.

Assuming Pac12 Champ & FSU and Michigan win, you saying Texas grabs the 4th spot, if Bama wins? No SEC in the Playoffs? hmmm.

The SEC Champ IS making the playoffs.

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IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

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1 minute ago, yoladu said:

Assuming Pac12 Champ & FSU and Michigan win, you saying Texas grabs the 4th spot, if Bama wins? No SEC in the Playoffs? hmmm.

The SEC Champ IS making the playoffs.

Again, we need to stop doing this. There are absolutely scenarios where the SEC should get left out. 

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2 minutes ago, D3zii said:

IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

not that it makes a difference but AL was ranked #3 at the time. 

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3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Again, we need to stop doing this. There are absolutely scenarios where the SEC should get left out. 

I think we all agree that they should get left out under certain scenarios. I think the argument is over the psyche of the committee and whether they will be left out.

Edited by ChickenNuggets
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14 minutes ago, orange dream said:

I was at the game in Tuscaloosa. It was glorious.  I was also at the Cotton Bowl on October 11, 2008. It was also glorious.  Unfortunately, the team we beat that day took our spot in the National Championship game that year.

If the SEC is shut out of the playoff this year it will be the first time in the CFP era that the SEC is excluded, and even going back to the BCS, era the first time since 2005 that an SEC team didn't get the nod in the beauty contest.  Not saying it's right, but it is the way it is.  I hope the trend breaks in our favor if necessary, but not counting on it.

Having said all that, I'm standing behind the Lousville cheerleaders (especially one) this week...

image.jpeg.44a23fea080abc17b1767993b4192cb8.jpeg

The difference was that we wernt only tied with OU, but also Tech. Different situation than now. Although I still think Texas 08 got shafted and was the best team in the country. 

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2 minutes ago, Texas Wahoo said:

The SEC getting "left out" is kind of funny if Texas makes it, given that we're basically in the SEC as soon as the season is over.

We also did something no SEC team has done since Saban was hired in 2007, so the "SEC must get in" stuff really ruffles my feathers. Sorry for the language. 

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7 minutes ago, D3zii said:

IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

Committee is basing it on margin of victory, without adjusting for strength of schedule

Oregon #2 in nation at 25.3

Texas #11 at 17.8

Bama #15 @ 14.4 

https://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/stat/average-scoring-margin

I am not saying it is correct, but that seems to be their basis. Even if MOV is not supposed to be a criteria of the committee. 

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10 minutes ago, D3zii said:

IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

I agree with your point, but the graphic would support us better if it showed strength of schedule. Also FCS wins shouldn’t count 

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11 minutes ago, D3zii said:

IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

The time to ask these questions was weeks ago when the committee placed us behind Oregon.  The writing was on the wall then.  It's moot now.

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1 hour ago, Smax said:
1 hour ago, bigcigar said:
This is where I’m at. We’re playing a championship game against a team that got wrecked by Georgia Southern and UCF. The league was absolute shit this year, and we had too many close games. I think those are factors the committee with cite when they screw us over.

Is it screwing us over if it's true?

No bias here at all - the strongest argument is that Texas is a top 4 team. The facts presented used to say not top 4 might be true, but it doesn’t make it the best argument. 

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1 minute ago, Pound Town said:

The time to ask these questions was weeks ago when the committee placed us behind Oregon.  The writing was on the wall then.  It's moot now.

Unlikely, but not moo. Our best chance there would be if Bama beats Georgia, and they have to choose two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama. 

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13 minutes ago, D3zii said:

IMG_2748.thumb.jpeg.618dcceedee753d233e3ad317d927568.jpeg
 

so tell me again Oregon is in front of Texas and Alabama because of the “eye test” ?? Well if that’s the case you have to place Texas in front of them based off the last weeks game correct?? 
 

cause going off resume there is no way you place Oregon in front of Texas and there best win is Oregon State and before that it was Texas Tech who they had to come back from and Texas just beat by 50. 
 

someone make it make sense 

2 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I agree with your point, but the graphic would support us better if it showed strength of schedule. Also FCS wins shouldn’t count 

and to add to Pig's point home losses should matter

 

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Unlikely, but not moo. Our best chance there would be if Bama beats Georgia, and they have to choose two of Oregon, Texas, and Bama. 

Simple fix is just to continue to pick Oregon.  You won't have to answer the question of the Texas head to head win.  You guys are expecting way too much out of these morons.  

Edited by Pound Town
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19 minutes ago, Pound Town said:

At this point, I'd rather UW just win out.  Do not want the taste left in my mouth of 1 loss Oregon going in ahead of us.

UW win is bad for us. We should be rooting for Alabama (higher margin is better) and Oregon winning (by a little). If both win, we have a decent shot as there will be two spots available. I think the committee would be loathe to leave out the SEC champ, and ultimately that plays in our favor as the only team to beat said champ. If only one of Oregon or Alabama wins, I think we are almost certainly out (and Michigan and FSU win). 

If the winners are:

1. FSU, Washington, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - the playoffs are FSU, Washington, Bama and Michigan (Undefeated Washington gets in and Bama gets in over us on the strength of what have you done for me lately)

2. FSU, Oregon, Georgia, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Oregon, Georgia, and Michigan (our best win loses and Oregon gets a great win over Washington)

3. FSU, Oregon, Bama, Michigan, and Texas - Playoffs = FSU, Michigan, Bama, and Texas. (Bama gets in for defeating reigning champs, we get in over Oregon for having defeated the team that beat the reigning champs)

Rooting for Washington 100% locks out a spot that we could take. Rooting for Georgia 100% locks out a spot (although probably not one we can take) AND diminishes our best win if it comes down to a beauty contest. 

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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