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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

You assume that the evaluations that put Oregon in front of us are carved in stone, never to be reconsidered.  They got a lot of credit for beating teams that were perceived at the time to be very good.  Many of those teams have shown that they are not so good after all.  Texas was in a cycle where we were struggling to put away teams.  There's also the common opponent factor which only came into play this week.  I'm not expecting Texas to jump Oregon this week, but I would not be at all surprised if they do.  If they don't, I will still have hope that they could, not knowing what has been reconsidered and whether the committee has to figure out how to justify Alabama getting into the CFP.  They have changed the order of teams every week, even when everyone has won.  The order of Oregon and Texas is not immune to that.  

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Just now, hobbes2702 said:

“Ranked” teams, that are ranked because of people voting, don’t matter in Sagarin. Strength of schedule factors in your opponents strength of schedule. The conference is loaded with teams with high SOS because the conference has very few “bad” teams and everyone in the conference plays a decent OOC schedule.

we also play 9 conf games which helps vs SEC.  but the SEC figured out long ago that SOS for the committee(humans) means close to zero.

Big 12(14) only had 3 dogshit teams Cincy, Hou, Baylor.   BYU and TCU played Arkansas and Colorado and BYU, so they get a bump there.  Tech played Oregon.

In a logical world with the SOS of #2 or at least top 5 assuming beating OSU we should be in over certainly FSU or Oregon but loss column rules all just like in the poll era.

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15 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

True, but a Wash win closes that door.  We will be ahead of Oregon but it won't matter unless one of the others loses.    

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4 minutes ago, idigTexas said:

You assume that the evaluations that put Oregon in front of us are carved in stone, never to be reconsidered.  They got a lot of credit for beating teams that were perceived at the time to be very good.  Many of those teams have shown that they are not so good after all.  Texas was in a cycle where we were struggling to put away teams. 

All of that was taken into account in the last CFP rankings, and the committee literally told us they think Oregon's resume is better than ours, prior to last weekend's games.

 

Quote

There's also the common opponent factor which only came into play this week.  

OK, I'll grant you that.  I think it requires a bit too sharp of a pencil to assume the committee might consider it, but point taken.

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11 minutes ago, hobbes2702 said:

“Ranked” teams, that are ranked because of people voting, don’t matter in Sagarin. Strength of schedule factors in your opponents strength of schedule. The conference is loaded with teams with high SOS because the conference has very few “bad” teams and everyone in the conference plays a decent OOC schedule.

11 teams in the top 30 SOS in the Big12

Wyoming and Rice having good years also helps in comparison to So Miss and North Alabama ( Noles) or Ball St, UT Martin, UAB (UGA) 

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Prediction for this week's rankings:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Florida State

5. Ohio State

6. Texas

7. Oregon

8. Alabama

Texas jumps Oregon because our resume is simply better. We beat the common opponent much worse than they did. Texas final busted out and put up big points in a blowout win.

Prediction for CFP:

FSU loses to Louisville. FSU, like us, has played evenly against mid-grade and poor teams. They beat an okay LSU team first game of the season. Only other win against a ranked team was #16 Duke. They lost their starting QB. 

Chalk the rest of the way.

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Texas

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1 minute ago, orange dream said:

BAMA and OU.

Not a single other ranked team on our schedule.  I don't know how Sagarin calculates SOS but ours has to be based mostly on those two games.

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

  1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
  2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
  3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
  4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
  5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
  6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
  7.  Houston, 4-8
  8. BYU, 5-7 
  9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
  10. TCU,  5-7
  11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
  12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

  1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
  2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
  3. Hawaii, 5-8
  4. Colorado, 4-8
  5. Stanford, 3-9
  6. Washington, 12-0
  7.  Washington State, 5-7
  8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
  9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
  10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
  11. Arizona State, 3-9
  12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

  1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
  2. Texas, 11-1
  3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
  4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
  5.  Miss State, 5-7
  6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
  7.  Arkansas, 4-8
  8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
  9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
  10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
  11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
  12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Other than one small nit (addressed in a minute), I agree.  Prior to last Friday/Saturday's games, it's clear that the committee thought Oregon's resume was superior to ours.  Both teams pummelled their opponent at home, but Oregon played a tougher team (Oregon State > Texas Tech).  They are not going to jump us ahead of Oregon tomorrow night.  When it comes to conference championship games, an Oregon win over Washington will be seen as superior to a Texas win over Okie State.  Same story.  They will not move us ahead of Oregon.

The only way we will move ahead of Oregon is if Oregon loses.  (That's my nit -- "And nothing will change in between now and Sunday in our favor."  Not nothing, but nothing if Oregon wins.)

You'll be wrong and you'll like it. 

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46 minutes ago, Vic Mackey said:
51 minutes ago, orange dream said:
And let's not forget, the SEC is inflated every year since they only play 8 conference games and in place of a 9th conference game that would give half the conference an extra loss, they all get a free win over a D2 bumfuck asshole Tech school they schedule.

352ED9B0-976E-454B-AD2C-B3F8F7E49103.thumb.jpeg.013b18a5f0b7243a2c7f0c087c825c64.jpeg

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1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

Explain why Alabama beating Georgia at a neutral site is a better win than Texas beating the team that beat Georgia (for its only loss in this scenario) on the road. 

Alabama will have beaten a one loss team that isn't a conference champion at a neutral site. They will have beaten a team that is lower ranked than they are after the game. 

Texas will have beaten a one loss conference champion on the road. Alabama will be higher ranked than Georgia after the game. 

In what world is Alabama's win better in this scenario? For double points, make the argument without using stuff that did not occur during the 2023 season that is the only season for which this committee will be ranking teams. 

It just means more.

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3 minutes ago, Ojo Rojo said:

Prediction for this week's rankings:

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Florida State

5. Ohio State

6. Texas

7. Oregon

8. Alabama

Texas jumps Oregon because our resume is simply better. We beat the common opponent much worse than they did. Texas final busted out and put up big points in a blowout win.

Prediction for CFP:

FSU loses to Louisville. FSU, like us, has played evenly against mid-grade and poor teams. They beat an okay LSU team first game of the season. Only other win against a ranked team was #16 Duke. They lost their starting QB. 

Chalk the rest of the way.

1. Georgia

2. Michigan

3. Washington

4. Texas

Wash is a 9 point underdog. Wouldnt call that chalk unless you are just looking at ranking. That would be a pretty big upset. 

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4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

  1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
  2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
  3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
  4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
  5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
  6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
  7.  Houston, 4-8
  8. BYU, 5-7 
  9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
  10. TCU,  5-7
  11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
  12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

  1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
  2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
  3. Hawaii, 5-8
  4. Colorado, 4-8
  5. Stanford, 3-9
  6. Washington, 12-0
  7.  Washington State, 5-7
  8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
  9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
  10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
  11. Arizona State, 3-9
  12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

  1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
  2. Texas, 11-1
  3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
  4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
  5.  Miss State, 5-7
  6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
  7.  Arkansas, 4-8
  8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
  9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
  10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
  11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
  12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

Cal who lost at home to a team that lost handily to the aggies (of new mexico state)??

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1 minute ago, joeycovers said:

Wash is a 9 point underdog. Wouldnt call that chalk unless you are just looking at ranking. That would be a pretty big upset. 

True. I don't look at the lines because those are not dictated by the logic of who is favored to win, but by the movement of money bet on one team or the other.

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7 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

  1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
  2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
  3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
  4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
  5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
  6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
  7.  Houston, 4-8
  8. BYU, 5-7 
  9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
  10. TCU,  5-7
  11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
  12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

  1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
  2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
  3. Hawaii, 5-8
  4. Colorado, 4-8
  5. Stanford, 3-9
  6. Washington, 12-0
  7.  Washington State, 5-7
  8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
  9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
  10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
  11. Arizona State, 3-9
  12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

  1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
  2. Texas, 11-1
  3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
  4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
  5.  Miss State, 5-7
  6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
  7.  Arkansas, 4-8
  8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
  9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
  10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
  11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
  12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

BYU was pretty close to going bowling too. TCU maybe would have had a totally different season but they got Primed.

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I could see the committee putting Texas in front of Oregon this week and then if both win, they use the Wash win for Oregon to leap frog them back.  Bama position doesn't really matter because if they win they are SECSECSEC champs and beat 2 time defending champs.

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7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

BYU was pretty close to going bowling too. TCU maybe would have had a totally different season but they got Primed.

TCU did get shadeur'd but it would have just meant going bowling.  They had to be the luckiest team in college football in a decade.  the Michigan win is still a stunner I have to admit.  They were living on borrowed time.

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Having read through the entire thread carefully and considered everyone's opinion, the rank-order is this:

1) Michigan

2) Georgia

3) FSU

4) Washington

5) Oregon - this was close, but eyetest wins out.  They've simply been more consistent and their resume isn't that bad especially with a rematch win.

6) Texas

7) Alabama - they lose the eye test and resume and head-to-head to Texas.  I will say that a win over Georgia helps their resume a lot and it's not the huge gulf behind Texas that I expected.  They are still the worse pick by every measure, though.

8. Michigan (1L)

9) UGA (1L)

---- no chance below this line ----

10) tOSU

11) FSU (1L)

12) Washington (1L)

 

Congratulations, everyone.  This is official.  We did it.

 

Spoiler

All this is subject to change based on next week's eye test.

 

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Just now, JBJ said:

Having read through the entire thread carefully and considered everyone's opinion, the rank-order is this:

1) Michigan

2) Georgia

3) FSU

4) Washington

5) Oregon - this was close, but eyetest wins out.  They've simply been more consistent and their resume isn't that bad especially with a rematch win.

6) Texas

7) Alabama - they lose the eye test and resume and head-to-head to Texas.  I will say that a win over Georgia helps their resume a lot and it's not the huge gulf behind Texas that I expected.  They are still the worse pick by every measure, though.

8. Michigan (1L)

9) UGA (1L)

---- no chance below this line ----

10) tOSU

11) FSU (1L)

12) Washington (1L)

 

Congratulations, everyone.  This is official.  We did it.

 

  Reveal hidden contents

All this is subject to change based on next week's eye test.

 

FSU in front of Washington, it's a bold move cotton, lets see if it pays off

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31 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

TCU did get shadeur'd but it would have just meant going bowling.  They had to be the luckiest team in college football in a decade.  the Michigan win is still a stunner I have to admit.  They were living on borrowed time.

Sonny Dykes gotta be mad that Bjork didn't offer

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40 minutes ago, joeycovers said:

My predictions that no one cares about for Tuesday rankings. 

1. Mich

2. UGA

3. Wash

4. Oregon

5. Ohio St

6. Noles

7. UT

8.Bama

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

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1 minute ago, blutow said:

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

Correct. Hope it happens but I bet we see them sitting at #4. If they are #5 or #6. It definitely opens the door bigtime. 

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2 minutes ago, blutow said:

If FSU is below #4 in tomorrow's rankings, the writing is on the wall for FSU (ie - they are out if they look like crap again this weekend).  I don't see that happening, but some in the media are speculating that it's possible.  I think it's mostly wishcasting by folks who can't imagine a world where tOsu doesn't get another shot or the SEC folks looking at the possibility that Bama and Georgia could both be left out.    

Thats where im leaning. If Noles are going to get jumped tomorrow is the day it will start.  Nobody wants to see the Noles in the playoffs. Especially ESPN when so many blue bloods just waiting to pounce

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10 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

Funny how there are different sources for calculations on strength of schedule...  

 

If we win over OSU, as expected, we'll have beaten 8 bowl-eligible teams. I figure that's been done a few times before, but it's still impressive...no matter what anyone thinks it should or shouldn't mean in terms of the CFP. 

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1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

SOS isn't based on top 25 rankings. It is based on the entire schedule. The vast majority of the teams we played turned out to be solid. 

  1. Rice, 6-6, going bowling (4 close loses)
  2. Alabama, 11-1, potential CFP
  3. Wyoming, 8-4, going bowling
  4. Baylor, 3-9 (hahaha)
  5. Kansas. 8-4, going bowling 
  6. Sooners, 10-2, going bowling
  7.  Houston, 4-8
  8. BYU, 5-7 
  9.  Kansas State, 8-4, going bowling
  10. TCU,  5-7
  11.  Iowa State, 7-5, going bowling
  12.  Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling

2 of the 4 teams we played that aren't going bowling are just barely missing out. 8 of the 12 had records that were .500 or better.  The composite win percentage of our opponents is 57% (81-61). 

In comparison, Oregon:

  1. Portland State, 5-6 (FCS)
  2. Texas Tech, 6-6, going bowling
  3. Hawaii, 5-8
  4. Colorado, 4-8
  5. Stanford, 3-9
  6. Washington, 12-0
  7.  Washington State, 5-7
  8. Utah, 8-4, going bowling
  9. Cal, 6-6, going bowling
  10. USC, 7-5, going bowling
  11. Arizona State, 3-9
  12. Oregon State, 8-4, going bowling

Only 5 of Oregon's opponents are going to a bowl game. Combined win percentage of exactly 50% (72-72). And an FCS team was thrown in the mix for good measure. 

Alabama

  1. Middle Tenn, 4-8
  2. Texas, 11-1
  3. South Florida, 6-6, bowling
  4.  Ole Miss, 10-2, bowling
  5.  Miss State, 5-7
  6.  Aggy, 7-5, bowling
  7.  Arkansas, 4-8
  8.  Tenn, 8-4, bowling
  9.  LSU, 9-3, bowling
  10.  Kentucky, 7-5, bowling
  11. Chattanooga, 8-4 (FCS)
  12.  Auburn,  6-6, bowling

Combined win percentage, 59%, with the caveat that there is an FCS team in there AND every SEC team schedules an additional out of conference cupcake over other conferences. 

 

 

 

 

I wish I could rep this post more. This is why our SOS is so strong relative to many of the others, when it's broken down over the full 12 games. 

However when it comes to humans ranking teams, the throwaway wins are dismissed for the most part and primarily the top wins and of course the losses are compared, for better or for worse. So our non-conference wins against 8-4 Wyoming and bowl eligible Rice aren't really looked at in comparison to FCS walkovers Chattanooga and Portland State, Hawaii, Middle Tennessee State, etc.

Another reason why computer models for rankings should get more consideration alongside the human element.

Edited by LonghornSean
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The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.

Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.


Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.


Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.


Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.


Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

Edited by mdleast
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2 minutes ago, mdleast said:

The Athletic ran 16 playoff scenarios based on the conference championship games. Taking the 8 scenarios out where Texas loses, half of them show us in playoffs:

Predicting the College Football Playoff field: The 16 possible scenarios

Scenario 1: Georgia, Washington, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
Obviously, this one is as straightforward as it gets.

Scenario 3: Georgia, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Washington (13-0)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Ohio State (11-1)
As a 12-1 conference champ, Texas gets the nod over Ohio State.


Scenario 5: Georgia, Oregon, FSU and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Texas (12-1)
The committee has consistently placed one-loss Oregon above one-loss Texas despite the Horns arguably owning a better resume; so no reason to think that changes if the Ducks beat a 12-0 opponent in their last game. I even have them passing undefeated FSU.
Scenario 7: Georgia, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Georgia (13-0)
2. Michigan (13-0)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Washington (12-1)
Another tough call at No. 4, especially given Texas would have to move up three spots, but the Horns would be a conference champ and the Huskies would not.
Scenario 9: Alabama, Washington, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)

Scenario 11: Alabama, Washington, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Washington (13-0)
3. Alabama (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Texas vs. Georgia would be an absolutely maddening debate, but I again default to the conference champion. Especially since Texas won at Alabama.
Scenario 13: Alabama, Oregon, Florida State and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Florida State (13-0)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Now, both one-loss Alabama and one-loss Oregon enter the picture. Georgia may claim to be better than Oregon, but Georgia would not have just beaten a 12-0 team.
Scenario 15: Alabama, Oregon, Louisville and Texas win.
1. Michigan (13-0)
2. Alabama (12-1)
3. Oregon (12-1)
4. Texas (12-1)
—
5. Georgia (12-1)
Same as Scenario 11, just with a different Pac-12 team.

All told, here’s how often each team gets in:
• Michigan: 16
• Georgia: 10
• Washington: 9
• Oregon: 8
• Alabama: 8
• FSU: 8
• Texas: 4
• Ohio State: 1

Note they don’t even entertain Michigan losing. Poor Iowa.

wait...all that to say if Louisville wins Texas is in?

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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