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Posted
6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

smith was over matched before it even started 

lulz 

He wasn't overmatched at all.

The problem, the fundamental problem, was anyone thinking that a final conviction in two first-ever prosecutions of a FPOTUS could be secured in four years.

The only way that could happen was an innocent President who insisted on a speedy trial to prove his accusers wrong.

And, of course, it wasn't Smith that re-elected the sonofabitch, creating the four-year time frame.

Posted
Just now, safe sex said:

I mean, the investigation could've been started a lil earlier. 

It wouldn't have changed the outcome.  Let's say Trump had been indicted for both in say February 2021, which is pure fantasyland.

Let's get to trial in 18 months, so that puts us in September 2022.  And the conviction becomes final for appeal purposes after sentencing in say January 2023 (and this assumes a relatively sane trial duration of a month or less, which may not be a good assumption).

A pretty normal appeal takes a year to 18 months, so that gets us to January 2024.  Then there's the Supreme Court, and let's assume they'll take it, so another year, plus.  We're at, whoops, January 2025.

These would be fairly speedy for any federal criminal defendant that doesn't take a plea.  It does not take into account the various unique defenses available to any former POTUS indicted for crimes occurring proximate to, if not during, the administration.

And, the presidential immunity question was a new one that had to be resolved, one way or another and by its nature would have required a mid-case appeal (interlocutory).  Even had SCOTUS taken it on an expedited basis, and given a less bullshit ruling, that inserts a minimum six month delay in the middle of trial court proceedings, which puts us in June 2025.

It was fucked from jump assuming he was re-elected.

Posted

If he had been convicted in 2022, surely some of those who voted for him in 2024 woud have had some pause.   Right?   Right?!?

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Posted
1 hour ago, Macanudo said:

If he had been convicted in 2022, surely some of those who voted for him in 2024 woud have had some pause.   Right?   Right?!?

You could argue that the federal prosecutions were less political than the NY prosecution, especially the Mar A Lago case.  And therefore less easily dismissed than the NY case.

But, I'm pretty sure that's shitting in one hand and hoping in the other.

Posted (edited)

Just fact-checking myself on my timeline post above.

The arrest, indictment and trial of Sam Bankman-Fried was cited as a swift federal investigation and prosecution -- and it was, remarkably so, probably the fastest criminal prosecution gaining public notice I've ever seen.  

The timeline there:  Crime evidence surfaces in November 2022, SBF indicted in December 2022.  Tried to conviction in December 2023.  Sentenced in March 2024, so indictment to final conviction for appeal purposes, 15 months.  Remarkably fast given SBFs wealth ostensibly providing the means to delay and otherwise game the system.  Lewis Kaplan, the judge, seems to be an extraordinarily no-bullshit judge.  But those no-bullshit judges often create errors for appeal and reversal.

One of the things that helped speed this prosecution was the nearly irrefutable "paper trail" left by SBF combined with the swift flipping of Caroline Ellison to shut down any innocent explanations of that paper trail.

Appealed in April 2024.  The appeal remains pending 16 months later.

 

Edited by TwiceHorn


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