Jump to content

Русский корабль - иди нахуй


Eastwood

Recommended Posts

49 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Few countries are. My buddies are on a USAID contract, but working in Ukrainian facilities and helping do health checks on people leaving the country. I would love to see us set up a few medical facilities in neighboring countries. 

Russia literally doesn’t have any bullets in the chamber except for the nuclear threat at this point.  They ain’t gonna nuke everyone so what is there to threaten now? Only Western restraint kept us from fucking their shit up in the cyber realm before now, so even they won’t work.  Whatever we do back will be worse. It’s basically escalation dominance all the way up to nuclear. 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia literally doesn’t have any bullets in the chamber except for the nuclear threat at this point.  They ain’t gonna nuke everyone so what is there to threaten now? Only Western restraint kept us from fucking their shit up in the cyber realm before now, so even they won’t work.  Whatever we do back will be worse. It’s basically escalation dominance all the way up to nuclear. 

Russia with enough time can inflict pain.  They can squeeze the Ukes.  With oil prices so high, I wonder is Putin thinks there is the opportunity to recover a significant amount of monetary losses and draw this out.  Putin seems to view a free/open Ukraine as an existential threat to Russia, so if he can't have it, he can and will break it.  If he can't "win", he can still throw men and material into the meat grinder and inflict losses and suffering on the Ukrainian people and infrastructure.  

I feel for the Ukrainian people.

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

Russia literally doesn’t have any bullets in the chamber except for the nuclear threat at this point.  They ain’t gonna nuke everyone so what is there to threaten now? Only Western restraint kept us from fucking their shit up in the cyber realm before now, so even they won’t work.  Whatever we do back will be worse. It’s basically escalation dominance all the way up to nuclear. 

To this end, I do have to wonder if areas like Kaliningrad and Siberia, which both have separatist movements (albeit complicated) may choose to attempt pursue succession to get away from the toxic stench from European Russia proper.  For Kaliningrad to integrate into Baltic Europe would seem to be very attractive as a small independent country.  Granted, they would have to stage some sort of small coup there, but I would have to think that will be at the very least worth it to avoid being tied into the Russian economy, or lack there of.  If you are a Siberian citizen, the only thing preventing you from being wealthy (given the mineral deposits) is being tied to European Russia.  They Russian army has thus far proven to be unable to function with out rail, so sabotaging the rail from Europe would be crippling and again a coup of sorts would need to occur.  I'd say there is ample reason to suspect the Siberians might try this.  

 

So in essence, Putin's bullshit could easily not only fail entirely, but could also have the residual result of Russia losing all of Asia their only true warm water port, albeit not connected.  

That Putin, he's a darn genius.  

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

To this end, I do have to wonder if areas like Kaliningrad and Siberia, which both have separatist movements (albeit complicated) may choose to attempt pursue succession to get away from the toxic stench from European Russia proper.  For Kaliningrad to integrate into Baltic Europe would seem to be very attractive as a small independent country.  Granted, they would have to stage some sort of small coup there, but I would have to think that will be at the very least worth it to avoid being tied into the Russian economy, or lack there of.  If you are a Siberian citizen, the only thing preventing you from being wealthy (given the mineral deposits) is being tied to European Russia.  They Russian army has thus far proven to be unable to function with out rail, so sabotaging the rail from Europe would be crippling and again a coup of sorts would need to occur.  I'd say there is ample reason to suspect the Siberians might try this.  

 

So in essence, Putin's bullshit could easily not only fail entirely, but could also have the residual result of Russia losing all of Asia their only true warm water port, albeit not connected.  

That Putin, he's a darn genius.  

If they could identify a way to be self sustaining with energy/food, that's not the worst plan.  Guessing the rail is what brings a lot of that in.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

If they could identify a way to be self sustaining with energy/food, that's not the worst plan.  Guessing the rail is what brings a lot of that in.  

I'm betting their be a quick recognition of Siberia by both us and China.  Additionally, both nations would be running to help them as quickly as possible with aid if for no other reason than to curry favor with the local population.  In that scenario, I'm thinking the citizens of Siberia would likely wind up living like the citizens of Kuwait in short order.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, BamaATL said:

I'm betting their be a quick recognition of Siberia by both us and China.  Additionally, both nations would be running to help them as quickly as possible with aid if for no other reason than to curry favor with the local population.  In that scenario, I'm thinking the citizens of Siberia would likely wind up living like the citizens of Kuwait in short order.  

I fear China would do everything in their power to suck Siberia dry like the vampires that they are.  They could bid low because their standard of living is already so low and they have dependencies for energy/food.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

To this end, I do have to wonder if areas like Kaliningrad and Siberia, which both have separatist movements (albeit complicated) may choose to attempt pursue succession to get away from the toxic stench from European Russia proper.  For Kaliningrad to integrate into Baltic Europe would seem to be very attractive as a small independent country.  Granted, they would have to stage some sort of small coup there, but I would have to think that will be at the very least worth it to avoid being tied into the Russian economy, or lack there of.  If you are a Siberian citizen, the only thing preventing you from being wealthy (given the mineral deposits) is being tied to European Russia.  They Russian army has thus far proven to be unable to function with out rail, so sabotaging the rail from Europe would be crippling and again a coup of sorts would need to occur.  I'd say there is ample reason to suspect the Siberians might try this.  

 

So in essence, Putin's bullshit could easily not only fail entirely, but could also have the residual result of Russia losing all of Asia their only true warm water port, albeit not connected.  

That Putin, he's a darn genius.  

Problem with Kaliningrad is that it's almost all Russian, about 85%.  Stalin probably depopulated every German, Pole, Lithuanian or anyone else with ties nearby from the area.  I suspect those Russians dream of nothing more than a land bridge back to the motherland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MillerEP said:

Haha, how great would it be if Kaliningrad did declare an independent Republic, after Russia's done the same in Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine, to have one of his oblasts do it would be hilarious. 

Putin would....not be in a happy mood, and it would be glorious!

68747470733a2f2f73332e616d617a6f6e617773

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

 

7 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm betting their be a quick recognition of Siberia by both us and China.  Additionally, both nations would be running to help them as quickly as possible with aid if for no other reason than to curry favor with the local population.  In that scenario, I'm thinking the citizens of Siberia would likely wind up living like the citizens of Kuwait in short order.  

China is not ever going to recognize any region that breaks away from their central government and declares independence, anywhere. They have a completely amoral foreign policy and their single principle is “no one gets to declare independence.” 

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

China is not ever going to recognize any region that breaks away from their central government and declares independence, anywhere. They have a completely amoral foreign policy and their single principle is “no one gets to declare independence.” 

That's a fair point, but the economic temptation for them on this might move the meter.  I do get that they are ingrained in their "One China" policy, but the economic benefits of this to them might have them turn a blind eye.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

Problem with Kaliningrad is that it's almost all Russian, about 85%.  Stalin probably depopulated every German, Pole, Lithuanian or anyone else with ties nearby from the area.  I suspect those Russians dream of nothing more than a land bridge back to the motherland.

A few weeks into bread lines might have them change their tune.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dissolution_of_Russia

Interesting on the topic, wikipedia I know, but certainly some other factors at play I didn't know about.  Probably, largely a fantasyland idea, but out of the realm of possibility, maybe not.  Depending on how this ends, and when it does end, Russia may be in such disarray that some of this could happen. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Reading around about this piece of equipment, one of the analogies is it the equilevent of acquiring the Enigma machine.

It is worth billions to the West and its secrets will put RU behind NATO in technology for decades.

So.....TWO tractors then?

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, KYHorn said:

 

 

 

15 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

Reading around about this piece of equipment, one of the analogies is it the equilevent of acquiring the Enigma machine.

It is worth billions to the West and its secrets will put RU behind NATO in technology for decades.

I'm still reading up on it but it sounds like the primary missions are:

  • Jam enemy HARM (high-speed Anti-Radar Missiles) fired to destroy surface to air missile acquisition and targeting radars like those used by US Wild Weasel platforms.
  • Disrupt surveillance systems like LEO satellites, UAVs, or air control systems - probably by interference with their comms links or jamming radars/providing false returns.

EDIT:  It is a two trailer system and it looks like they got the one with the command center and not with the comms gear and antennas so maybe less useful than the other half would be.

Edited by TexasEd
Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

Problem with Kaliningrad is that it's almost all Russian, about 85%.  Stalin probably depopulated every German, Pole, Lithuanian or anyone else with ties nearby from the area.  I suspect those Russians dream of nothing more than a land bridge back to the motherland.

Starting pumping in all the western news we can. Show how life is better in their neighbors and Russia is collapsing. Let them call for a referendum. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

 

I'm still reading up on it but it sounds like the primary missions are:

  • Jam enemy HARM (high-speed Anti-Radar Missiles) fired to destroy surface to air missile acquisition and targeting radars like those used by US Wild Weasel platforms.
  • Disrupt surveillance systems like LEO satellites, UAVs, or air control systems - probably by interference with their comms links or jamming radars/providing false returns.

If so important.  Worth so much.  Why deploy it in a conflict against an enemy with a minimal air force capability and material losses are an everyday event?  

Edited by BabaYaga
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, 27-25 said:

Problem with Kaliningrad is that it's almost all Russian, about 85%.  Stalin probably depopulated every German, Pole, Lithuanian or anyone else with ties nearby from the area.  I suspect those Russians dream of nothing more than a land bridge back to the motherland.

It's not just that its population is ethnically Russian.  It's that they're really fucking Russian.  They're either (1) the descendants of people who relocated there after the Germans were forced out (i.e., colonists), or (2) active or recently retired military. 

That being said, the Kaliningrad Oblast is far more economically tied to the EU than is the rest of Russia.  So I could see some local businesses favoring separation if sanctions look to be a long-term deal.

32 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

 

China is not ever going to recognize any region that breaks away from their central government and declares independence, anywhere. They have a completely amoral foreign policy and their single principle is “no one gets to declare independence.” 

I agree with that.  China can get its raw materials from a weakened Russia just as cheaply and easily as it could from an independent Siberia (perhaps even more so).

As close as Russia and China claim their relationship to be, you don't see China recognizing Russia's separatist republics like Transnistria, Abkhazia, and North Ossetia.  If China isn't going to support separatist movements that are promoted by Russia, I can't imagine that it would ever support a separatist movement of territory from Russia.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

desperation move

Yep.  Sounds like somebody screamed at some general to put down the resistance in Kherson, and/or the protests/protestors in Kherson are tying up a shit-ton of Russian forces, and they are desperate to pacify the place.

And me thinks that a bunch of those people won't be coming back.

These are all the signs of a Russian military that knows it has lost.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

They did this a few days earlier across the Ukraine. Wonder what they want to hide. 

 

I've seen some rumors that a bunch of countries are going to be trying to isolate Russia to the point of kicking out their diplomatic missions.

There's even talk that a bunch of European nations may completely kick out the Russian diplomatic missions, and instead they will only communicate through the EU as a unified voice.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Drool 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

No guys, it's not that they don't "have" optics, it's just that the guys "don't want them"
lol.  weak sauce
 

The optics I’ve seen recently are some vintage 3.5x scopes on Mosin-Nagants. Rifle and optic probably 60+ years old. I’m guessing these guys are Separatists in the east and had these guns in country already and are not invading orcs.

a4a6777232a7e23b2f4baffc2efa5b43.jpg
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

If so important.  Worth so much.  Why deploy it in a conflict against an enemy with a minimal air force capability and material losses are an everyday event?  

Because they use them to protect their air defense systems and jam enemy radars and it only has a range of 300KM about 160 miles.  Maybe they were trying to Jam US/NATO AWACS flying the Poland/Slovakia border or disrupt Bayraktar!

Like I said above, they apparently took the important part back out.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I guess there was a lot of blowback over people WTFing various Russians saying they could use nukes proactively.

I read this as the status of Russian existence is an unsettled question at this point.  Putin created this existential crisis.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...