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Posted
2 hours ago, blacklab said:

In some places they produce steam that is piped around the city for heat.

Steam->Heat is more efficient than steam->turbine->electricity->wire->heater

The US Navy seems to like doing this on bases as well.

My complex uses boilers to heat water for the entire place. You can melt your skin off with the tap water.

Posted
6 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Konstantin says that he spoke with a Russian acquaintance who owns a freight company who confirmed that they are not shipping anything right now - - because his trucks can’t buy enough fuel to ship the contracted goods - - and even if they have enough gas to go on a delivery, they may not be able to buy gas to get back.

Is that good? Because that doesn’t seem like it’s a good thing. 

I think that totally depends on how much vodka you have left

Posted
1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

Doesn't this seem like a lot of inside information really quickly?  Does that strike anyone else as odd?  

Why would they want to drag their balls across Russia's face with this, unless all this was compromised already?  

 

It does seem odd. I chalked it up to a Ukranian engineer that was employed there, at one time, that was high up enough to know the complete inner workings of the plant. Hell, it might have been a Ukranian contractor that built it. As for the air defense, they have dealt with it for four years, and probably know the timing from watching Russian reaction times to have a good idea of how to defeat it.

CHIEF

Posted
16 minutes ago, choripan said:

Steam systems are common in the States, too, at least in cities in which I've lived. 

 

I steamed a rug yesterday (and cooked a nice seafood dinner) so this hits close to home. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

Doesn't this seem like a lot of inside information really quickly?  Does that strike anyone else as odd?  

Why would they want to drag their balls across Russia's face with this, unless all this was compromised already?  

14 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

It does seem odd. I chalked it up to a Ukranian engineer that was employed there, at one time, that was high up enough to know the complete inner workings of the plant. Hell, it might have been a Ukranian contractor that built it. As for the air defense, they have dealt with it for four years, and probably know the timing from watching Russian reaction times to have a good idea of how to defeat it.

CHIEF

Or it could be they have a very good grasp of Russia's defenses and its shortcomings and putting that info out there is daring the Russians to move assets around or bring forces back into Russia proper from the occupied territories. There's even been some strikes where I've wondered if they are trying to get the Russians to move AA around - it's easier to spot when it's on the move. 

Then again, the more they strike, the more outlandish stuff they pull off (such as the huge drone strike launched from within Russia against aircraft), the more paranoid Putin/Russian leadership is, the more AA and other troops/assets are moved in closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg, the more exposed other places are (whether Russian O&G facilities or Russian military sites).

We may also be reaching a point of culmination for Russian air defenses anywhere outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg.

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Posted
10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Then again, the more they strike, the more outlandish stuff they pull off (such as the huge drone strike launched from within Russia against aircraft), the more paranoid Putin/Russian leadership is, the more AA and other troops/assets are moved in closer to Moscow and St. Petersburg, the more exposed other places are (whether Russian O&G facilities or Russian military sites).

We may also be reaching a point of culmination for Russian air defenses anywhere outside of Moscow or St. Petersburg.

This seems like a decent bet at the strategy.

Russia has only so many AA defenses.  They have to deploy them among the following competing interests: (1) protecting Russian military operations in and near Ukraine, (2) protecting Russian industrial/refining sites inside Russia, and (3) protecting the key strategic sites of Moscow and St. Petersburg.  It seems certain that they do not have the AA resources to fully protect all three.  And any attack you launch on any one of those three is an incentive to devote more AA resources to the target (kinda like how the Doolittle Raid caused at least some Japanese forces to be devoted to defending the home islands -- those resources couldn't be used elsewhere).

I'm curious about Russia's rate of AA replenishment as well.

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm curious about Russia's rate of AA replenishment as well.

I'm guessing not very high.  Even prior to 2022, it would not have been high enough to handle the volume they've seen over even just the past year - the amount of aerial attacks is absolutely insane - up to hundreds every day, ranging from ballistic missiles down to off-the-shelf stuff dropping off-the-shelf mortar shells.  And the same could probably be said for the US, although we would focus more on destroying the threats on the ground as well as the factories and jamming the command and control. 

Evidence of this being that Ukraine has been able to repeatedly hit the same sites, even within just weeks of the first strikes, as well as the fact that it's been clear for weeks that Ukraine is going to continue to hammer O&G, and Russia has been mostly impotent to stop it.  To put it another way: If somebody in Ukraine is drawing up a list of critical sites and is following that list, somebody in Russia would be just as aware of what that list looks like.

So they are clearly short on AA replenishment.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted
27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I'm curious about Russia's rate of AA replenishment as well.

I saw an interesting video about the strike on the refinery that was north of Moscow.    Part of the genius of that attack was using flocks of super cheap drones carrying no munitions to confuse air defenses and make them spend resources to stop the large numbers of what were essentially completely useless and non-threatening drones.  

if sending up hundred dollar drones will result in expensive AA Resources being wasted by Russia, they should be doing this every night until it’s time to use the real drones or missiles. 

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Posted
3 hours ago, blacklab said:

In some places they produce steam that is piped around the city for heat.

Steam->Heat is more efficient than steam->turbine->electricity->wire->heater

The US Navy seems to like doing this on bases as well.

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yes, and smaller microgrids to augment specific sections of bases. Army is doing it as well. 

Thanks guys. I forgot I already knew this.

One of earliest memories as a toddler/youngling was touching a radiator in an Air Force hospital. Only happened once.

3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Does anyone know what facility(s) process Ivan’s aviation fuel?  

I imagine every refinery has a distillation column similar to this.  Additional columns may include operating at a vacuum to enhance separation, or use a catalyst or extreme heat to "crack" the long chain heavy hydrocarbons into lighter, short chain hydrocarbons. 

A refinery will make 100+ gallons of products from 100 gallons of crude oil.

In simple terms, jet fuel is a combination of gasoline and kerosine and other substances.

Refining 101 - Distillation

image.thumb.png.96d90e913d24b5dd619dc22f1621c247.png

"Much like a simple still, in a distillation column, liquid is heated to a vapor and lifted upward to be distilled again into separate substances. This is the beginning of the refining process. Distilling exploits the characteristic of the chemicals in crude oil to boil at different temperatures.

Unlike a still, a distilling column contains a set of trays that allow heated vapors to rise and collect at different levels, separating out the various liquids derived from crude oil. The top of the column is cooler than the bottom, so as liquids vaporize and rise, they condense again, collecting onto their respective trays.  

Butane and other light products rise to the top of the column, while straight-run gasoline, naphtha, kerosene, diesel, and heavy gas oil gather on the trays, leaving straight run residue at the base of the column. Liquids are considered “heavy” or “light” based on their specific gravity, which is determined based on its weight and density compared to that of water. "

The bottom of the barrel really is the bottom of the barrel.

2 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Doesn't this seem like a lot of inside information really quickly?  Does that strike anyone else as odd?  

Why would they want to drag their balls across Russia's face with this, unless all this was compromised already?  

 

FIFY

Like anything you read, there is some fiction based on fact. You decide how much of which is which.

Using an orbiting satellite to identify a specific weld  in a large processing plant "for weakness" is Bruce Willis level kind of fiction. (99.9% of welds in a process plant are stronger than the pipes that are welded together, because they are thicker than the pipes.)

Now Russian steel might include melted fenders and hood ornaments, so ... 

59 minutes ago, choripan said:

Steam systems are common in the States, too, at least in cities in which I've lived. For example, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York_City_steam_system and https://detroitthermal.com/.

 

In a large power plant or smaller gas plants & NGL fractionation plants that make steam, you will probably have and/or use different levels of steam;

~1,800 PSI (#) steam - to drive a very large turbine-generator sets (~ 10,000+ HP?)

600 # steam - to drive smaller pumps and equipment

80 # steam -  the heat medium for heating the process towers

Low level steam  - auxiliary heating for buildings, etc.

The resulting low level steam that is not used in all of the above (condensate) is condensed from steam back to water by using cooling water and/or cooling towers.  The less you have to do this, the higher the plant efficiency. That is why nuclear and other large power plants are near oceans, rivers and lakes.

As a young District Engineer in the 80's, I got one of my plants licensed as a FERC certified co-generation plant, that had a 90+ % thermal efficiency (~ 93% ?).

The water used to make steam is cleaner and purer than distilled water.

It is normal for smaller steam turbines to go 10+ years without having to open the case to inspect it. The large turbines are inspected on a more frequent basis as a precautionary measure.

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Posted

NEW: The Kremlin continues its reflective control campaign aimed at preventing the US from selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.

ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is attempting to portray potential US Tomahawk deliveries to Ukraine as a dangerous escalation to deter the United States from sending such weapons to Ukraine. The Kremlin has previously conducted similar influence operations when the United States was discussing sending Ukraine Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMS), High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), F-16 fighter jets, and Abrams tanks, and has routinely successfully delayed the provision of Western weapons to Ukraine.

Previous Western weapons provisions and Ukrainian strikes using US-provided long-range weapons systems, however, did not trigger an escalatory Russian reaction, and the West and Ukraine have repeatedly violated Russia’s alleged “red lines” in the past with no resulting escalation.

These recent Russian threats about Tomahawk missile provisions are part of Russia’s wider reflexive control campaign that aims to coerce Russia’s opponents to make policy decisions that actually benefit Russia.

Other Key Takeaways: Leaked Russian estimates of Russian killed in action (KIA) to wounded in action (WIA) rates in Ukraine underscore the impact of increased tactical drone usage in Ukraine and the extent to which drones complicate ground advances and casualty evacuation.

The leaked estimates indicate that Russian forces suffered their highest casualties in the Pokrovsk, Kupyansk, and Lyman directions between January and August 2025, reflecting command prioritization of these sectors of the front. Russian forces appear able and willing to sustain these casualty rates despite achieving limited tactical advances

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Posted
3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I saw an interesting video about the strike on the refinery that was north of Moscow.    Part of the genius of that attack was using flocks of super cheap drones carrying no munitions to confuse air defenses and make them spend resources to stop the large numbers of what were essentially completely useless and non-threatening drones.  

if sending up hundred dollar drones will result in expensive AA Resources being wasted by Russia, they should be doing this every night until it’s time to use the real drones or missiles. 

This is the math problem that makes ABM systems impossibly expensive. Interceptors are more expensive than icbms to begin with and icbms can carry a lot of decoys along with multiple warheads. The only possible way to do it at all economically is an interceptor hitting the icbm in the boost phase but positioning is ... complex 

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Posted
9 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

I still think a flight of 30 flamingos at each of St. Petersburg and Moscow largest power generation facilities and grids would overload any air defenses, and make for a freezing winter.   Power plants knocked out before the snow comes down is better for PR, as Russia says it can replace everything and nothing was hurt in the first place.

I know that fuel restrictions in the two major elite cities is having some effect, but it took starving the rural territories of gas before it wound up impacting the major population centers.   I know nothing, but it seems to me the direct route of making St. Petersburg and Moscow as unlivable as possible would have the greatest effect in the shortest period of time to topple Putin.

Here is a new video from Anders talking about Flamingos and possible strategic usage for this winter.

 

TLDW

--Ukraine announced that Flamingo production has ramped up to 50 per month since Aug. By Jan it should be 200 per month.

--Anders speculates that it will be used as a deterence campaign to stop Russia's energy infrastructure attacks this winter.

--It will be an eye for an eye strategy for Ukraine to retaliate in kind on Moscow and St Petersberg.

--Knowing Putin he will follow through as usual so expect an extra icy winter for your average Muscovite.

--Whether it will be effective remains unknown but definitely note worthy that Ukraine has enough production capacity to even consider such a campaign.

 

 

 

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Posted

So the actual battle lines have been frozen for some time because any offensive attack gets stopped by waves of anti-personnel drones?  Ie, it's WW1 just as some have predicted?

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Posted (edited)
58 minutes ago, Parliament said:

So the actual battle lines have been frozen for some time because any offensive attack gets stopped by waves of anti-personnel drones?  Ie, it's WW1 just as some have predicted?

Assaults are done in 2- or 3-man teams.  Massed formations are no longer a thing in many areas because of drones (which I guess parallels WWI and massed formations running into machine guns). I know the US is training for drone warfare, but I still don't think we are even close to being prepared for something on this scale. In theory, we would wipe out the leadership and command & control.

When Ukraine drops the Kerch bridge, I don't know how Russia will be able to keep their forces in Crimea supplied - Ukraine has hit plenty of stuff in the Azov sea, and the land bridge/rail lines are within reach of the smaller drones.

And then there's this, which has to have the Chinese sweating bullets

Ukraine’s Sea Drones Are Now Launching Unjammable Fiber-Optic Drones

Quote

A new kind of Ukrainian sea drone may be accelerating the evolution of naval warfare.

Russian footage from last week’s attacks on the port cities of Tuapse and Novorossiysk appears to show a Ukrainian uncrewed surface vessel, essentially a kamikaze boat, carrying multiple fiber-optic first person view drones in hinged compartments along its hull. These are no ordinary FPVs. The fiber-optic connection allows the drones to fly without radio signals, making them immune to electronic jamming, one of the biggest threats in modern drone combat.

Quote

The innovation marks the first reported use of fiber-optic drones launched from the sea. Until now, Ukraine had deployed these unjammable drones mainly on land to strike Russian jammers and fortified positions. Mounting them on naval platforms extends their reach far beyond the coastline and turns each boat into a mobile drone carrier.

Quote

In December 2024, Ukraine had already hinted at this capability. The Ukrainian Navy released a video showing naval drone carriers launching strike FPV drones from internal bays fitted into Magura-class unmanned sea vehicles. The modified hulls appeared to use hatches that opened at sea, allowing the FPVs to take off while sheltered from saltwater and weather. Those early experiments foreshadowed what Russian footage now shows – sea drones doubling as motherships for precision FPV strikes.

Quote

“Given Ukraine’s manpower-limited navy, it has relied on cheap, unmanned systems built to be effective and disposable,” says Gregory Falco, an autonomous systems expert at Cornell University.

The footage, shared by Russian military bloggers, followed a wave of Ukrainian strikes that disabled oil terminals in Novorossiysk and Tuapse, temporarily halting port operations. If verified, the use of naval launched fiber-optic drones would signal another step in Ukraine’s evolving drone navy, where cheap, expendable platforms replace traditional warships.

Quote

The discovery of both the Magura kamikaze drone off Turkey and the fiber-optic drone carrier off Krasnodar shows that Ukraine’s drone navy now operates across nearly the entire Black Sea.

“At this point, Ukrainian drone developers are on the leading edge when it comes to many different drone types for different missions, an experience that is unmatched even by the most developed economies and industries around the world,” says Samuel Bendett, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security.

Quote

Cheap, expendable, and in some cases unjammable, these drones are replacing traditional warships with something new – a swarm fleet of floating launch pads in an era of the timid navy.

I feel confident that Taiwan is taking notes (and probably supplying a lot of components on some level). The Chinese are using cruise liners as their troop transports, and those things are slow as hell and have a massive radar signatures.  Easy pickings for drones when they have to cross almost 100 miles of open ocean.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Posted

IMG_5308.thumb.jpeg.1d9ed8298138bb01e2d5a85c08c547b0.jpeg

if you have no guarantee of continued fuel supply, you simply no longer have a nation capable of maintaining a supply chain.   If you cannot sell and deliver your goods to people, you’re out of business.   

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Posted
23 minutes ago, Schulz2.0 said:

 

 

 

Thousands of Trucks Stuck at Kazakhstan-Russia Border Amid Customs Crackdown

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2025/10/02/thousands-of-trucks-stuck-at-kazakhstan-russia-border-amid-customs-crackdown-a90695

Spoiler

Thousands of trucks carrying goods from China are backed up at the Kazakhstan-Russia border due to tightened customs checks, the Kommersant business daily reported Thursday, citing cargo companies.

Transport operators see the situation as a sign that Kazakhstan is moving toward closer compliance with Western sanctions imposed on Russia after its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Around 2,000-3,000 trucks have piled up at the Mashtakovo border crossing, according to Alexander Azatyan, head of logistics at YM Trans Group. One road freight industry source put the figure even higher, claiming as many as 7,500 vehicles were stuck.

Kazakh authorities said the congestion stems from stricter enforcement by Russian customs against gray-market imports. A source told Kommersant that both Moscow and Astana have stepped up inspections and raids aimed at identifying unscrupulous shippers.

The congestion mainly concerns dual-use goods subject to sanctions including electronics, drones and Western-brand products, said Maxim Yemelin, deputy head of logistics at the SLK logistics company.

Since mid-September, customs officers have inspected 99% of trucks suspected of carrying sanctioned goods, he added. Non-sanctioned cargo usually clears the border within three to five days.

Azatyan noted that the delays concern cargo already cleared in Kazakhstan, while transit shipments are not affected.

Yaroslav Belousov, director of international transport operations at FM Logistic in Russia, confirmed that large numbers of trucks were awaiting inspection due to tightened controls at the border.

However, he said major clients are less affected since they regularly send 30-50 trucks across the border each week.

Last week, Russia’s Federal Customs Service denied that either country’s authorities were creating barriers to trade.

“The buildup of vehicles near the border is caused by unscrupulous participants in foreign economic activity, who fail to give carriers the instructions needed to cross the border,” it said on Telegram.

 

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