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Posted
On 10/15/2025 at 8:55 AM, atomheartbevo said:

1,400 km in.

 

There are 3 Bashnet Refineries in the Ufa area, Ufa (160,000 BPD), Ufaneftekhim (190,000 BPD, and Novoil (120,000 BPD), with the 3 totaling 470,000 BPD of capacity, and covering over 4,600 acres, or ~ 7 square miles. In Austin, TX, the area between Mopac and I-35, and 38th Street to Town Lake is ~ 3,700 acres.  The total refining capacity here is comparable to Highway 225 in Deer Park, or along I-10 in Lake Charles.

In the screenshot photo in the OP, you can see a lot of green open space within the refineries. That is not common to the few US Refineries I have been to. With so many different pieces of equipment in the refinery, and as spread out as they are, it is very difficult to tell what exactly was hit, but one thing they all have in common is everything  makes big fireballs with thick black smoke. 

.and image.png.e6c1f9aa28acb1424903b3c875b71b29.png

 

On 10/16/2025 at 12:59 AM, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS curious what you think of this

IEA Sees Drone Strikes Weighing on Russia Oil-Processing Till Mid-2026 - Bloomberg

"The impact from Ukrainian drone strikes will suppress Russia’s refinery processing rates until at least mid-2026, the International Energy Agency says in its latest monthly oil-market report... '

Previously, we had assumed a normalization of refining activity as we approached year-end but now embed a more cautious outlook,' the Paris-based agency said in a report on Tuesday. The IEA currently sees Russian processing rates at just under 5 million barrels a day through June 2026, and a recovery toward 5.4 million barrels a day later, with the outlook to be revised as more information becomes available. '

The increasingly widespread and significant Ukrainian drone campaign against Russian oil refineries and infrastructure' has so far cut the nation’s crude processing by an estimated 500,000 barrels a day, the agency said...

With the drone strikes weighing on refinery runs, Russia raised its crude exports in September to 5.1 million barrels a day, the highest since May 2023, according to the IEA. Still, the nation’s oil-export revenues declined to a three-month low of $13.4 billion, the agency estimated.

The decline came as Russia’s crude-supply revenues, which rose $200 million month-on-month, were more than offset by a $440 million drop for oil-product exports, the report said. According to the IEA calculations, Russian fuel supplies to other countries in September reached 2.4 million barrels a day, the lowest in a decade, excluding April 2020 during the Covid-19 pandemic."

 

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I updated my listing of the Russia Refineries over 100,000 BPD, showing the individual process units that have been targeted and/or damaged. In most cases, i think if the large pressure vessel itself was damaged, it is basically a total loss, which would probably take a year to replace, and require a labor force of 500-1,000+ people. Some of these individual towers are 10+ feet in diameter, 100+ feel tall, and refine 100,000+ BPD, or a tank truck full of gasoline every 2-3 minutes.  Just to replace the vessel may take 6 months, with another 6-12 months to replace all the other related equipment.

As so many of there are linear processes, and interruption in the chain is important, but not necessarily critical. DIesel is a relatively dirty fuel compared to Jet fuel or gasoline, but at the end of the day any "off-spec" fuel would probably work okay with a smallish degradation in performance.  I'm betting the Russia and US refining standards would never be confused with each other.

image.png.a36136edbca3a7628bbfaa256b3bea58.png 

I think early in the campaign, Ukraine was content with the equivalent of lobbing grenades over the fence and hoping something blew up. In the past 6 months, they started identifying by name and number the process units they targeted and/or hit, which is indicative of better targeting intelligence, and better weapons and technology.

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One can infer from the vessel numbers that their multiple units that have similar functions, with the newer versions being bigger and better versions of the older ones. The concept of a "refinery capacity" is kind of a nebulous term, as it is probably the capacity of everything there, when there is a low probability that it all operates at the same time. A lot of the equipment would be an either or operation, but not both. That makes determining the degree to which refining capacity has been reduced not much better than an educated guess.

On 10/16/2025 at 2:23 AM, atomheartbevo said:

One other thing - if the remaining refineries/operations have to somehow boost their output/throughput, that seems like a recipe for long-term wear and tear.

Most equipment operates better at higher rates. Most of the refining equipment are static process vessels with fluids moving in and between them the only "moving parts." The motors driving pumps and fans are relatively simple machines that are basically on or off, with not a lot of difference between operating at 50% load v. 90% load.

The most critical thing is the predictive and preventative maintenance on the dynamic pieces. In a higher demand/price environment, the equipment usually operates near the  capacity, and even the best companies are prone to delay scheduled maintenance until prices normalize. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn't. The concept of "run to fail" usually works like it sounds. Please note that delaying maintenance is not the same as compromising safety.  Though I don't think maintenance or safety are very important in Russian facilities these days, or if they ever were. 

Gas processing is similar to oil refining, but gas is much different than oil. One big pump can move a lot of oil. It takes a bunch of really big compressors to move a lot of gas, either large gas turbines with complex and expensive rotating assemblies, or reciprocating compressors that by their nature, are machines that require constant maintenance. Most companies have learned that regular maintenance means regular maintenance.

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Posted (edited)

The President of the United States of America...

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115391463725537040
image.png.4a85de21e4e862aceebcd901dc628079.png

 

Not just the same colors, but the horizontal tricolor of the Russian flag in the same order: white, blue, red.

https://unn.ua/en/news/us-secretary-of-defense-hegset-wore-a-tie-in-the-colors-of-the-russian-flag-at-the-meeting-between-zelenskyy-and-trump
image.thumb.png.bc6cea421f2e8fa71b1f19b62c803598.png

Edited by bolverk
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Posted
On 10/15/2025 at 12:14 AM, PTINS said:

My screenshot; Red icons and the Red polygon in the middle are pre October strikes.  The Red icons within the Blue polygon were the Oct 6 strikes. The Blue polygon is from the FIRMS shot in the quoted post. It appears they hit everything on the easy side of the terminal, including the rail loading/unloading facilities.

I believe Ukraine has chosen not to target the 3 large tanks on the west side of the property, because they are large, and very close to civilian infrastructure adjacent to the terminal.

Should have called me. I put out a diesel fire, at fire school, in a 6'x6' pan ~ 6 " deep, with a dry powder extinguisher. 

The protocol w/ oil & gas fires, cut off the fuel source, control the fire, and then assess. your options. Burning gas (vapor, natural gas, not gasoline) in a controlled environment is preferable to a large gas plume continuing to vent and grow, looking for an ignition source, that vaporizes everything within the plume. Most big gas fires, like the one next to Walmart in Pasadena, you isolate the fire and let it burn itself out.

Most liquid fires, try to put out the fire, and clean up the mess.

From the FIRMS data, it appears that most of the facility is burning, which probably includes the fire water system, is compromised and/or to hot to get access to.  

image.png.2dfed3589974da0ddf0978821d98c3c0.png

Updated photo of Feodosia Terminal, Crimea

Orange - Attacks prior to August 2025

Red - Attacks last week (early October)

Blue - Attacks this week

 

image.png.a1b715bd119fed943612e8a54bd6bc88.png

Satellite Photo

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I think Ukraine is dragging their 'nads showing their capabilities of the systematic destruction of Russian infrastructure.

image.png.7b897b6aac2232b191887af4497a3eac.png

 

"Satellite images confirm 11 fuel tanks destroyed at Crimean oil terminal after Ukrainian strikes
A key fuel supply hub for Russian forces in Crimea has lost 11 storage tanks to Ukrainian strikes this month, with several more tanks unlikely to be restored to operation.

by Maria Tril, 18/10/2025

Radio Liberty's Russian service has released satellite imagery documenting extensive damage to the oil depot in Feodosia, occupied Crimea, following Ukrainian strikes on the facility.

Ukraine's drone strikes focus on Russian military airbases, manufacturing facilities, oil refineries, and energy infrastructure. According to military analysts, these operations aim to disrupt Russia's fuel supplies and inflict economic pressure. Attacks on oil refineries have hit approximately 38-40% of Russia's refining capacity, damaging production of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel, which has led to shortages and price increases within Russia.

The images show 11 fuel storage tanks completely destroyed as a result of Ukrainian attacks on the site, according to Radio Liberty. Several other damaged tanks are unlikely to be recoverable.

Ukrainian forces struck the Marine Oil Terminal facilities in Feodosia on 6 October. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine described it as "a multifunctional technological complex for transshipment of oil and petroleum products from railway tank cars to sea vessels and back, as well as to road transport, which is involved in supplying the occupying army of the Russian Federation."

The massive fire that erupted following the Ukrainian strike could not be extinguished for more than two days, Radio Liberty reports.

On 13 October, Ukrainian military forces struck the Feodosia oil depot again.

The result of two Ukrainian strikes on 7 October and 13 – 11 completely destroyed fuel tanks, several damaged and unlikely to be recoverable, according to the reports.

The first Ukrainian strike on the oil terminal in October 2024 destroyed or fatally damaged 14 tanks at the hub that supplied fuel and lubricants to the Russian army in occupied Crimea. A Pantsir air defense system installed at the refinery in 2022 failed to prevent any of the three Ukrainian attacks."

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Posted
20 minutes ago, bolverk said:

The President of the United States of America...

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/115391463725537040
image.png.4a85de21e4e862aceebcd901dc628079.png

 

Not just the same colors, but the horizontal tricolor of the Russian flag in the same order: white, blue, red.

https://unn.ua/en/news/us-secretary-of-defense-hegset-wore-a-tie-in-the-colors-of-the-russian-flag-at-the-meeting-between-zelenskyy-and-trump
image.thumb.png.bc6cea421f2e8fa71b1f19b62c803598.png

Impressive to be doing domestic fascism while being a Neville Chamberlain abroad and proposing appeasement 

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Posted
15 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

@PTINS don’t know if this a new thing but Ukraine apparently trying to finish off fuel depots and the like hence the second and third strikes.   
 

 

Thanks for the post. We were both writing at the same time!

I went back this morning and looked at the recent Ukraine targets. Refineries, pump stations and oil terminals, ammunition plants and storage depots, power plants and electrical substations, critical manufacturing plants (some single source) in the supply chain. 

The cumulative effect on the Russian supply chain, economy and the capacity to make war has to be staggering. Plotting these on a map, and it's like ...

  image.png.81704f667f61e4f3eccb32e0463ae20d.png

Tomahawks cruise missiles would be a nice add, but Ukraine is fucking dunking on Russia every time they get the ball. 

Part of me says keep it up and fucking kick their ass back to the 19th century. The sad reality is that Russia will attack schools, hospitals and apartment buildings until somebody makes them stop.

When this ends, the free world will be standing in line to help rebuild Ukraine, with nobody willing to walk across the street to piss on a Russian fire. 

Maybe a massive shower of cruise missiles would do the trick. 

  

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Posted

From Euromaidan Press -  (me thinks Surly has a new subscriber)

Analysis of two months of deep strikes explains what Ukraine really targets at Russian oil refineries

Analysis of two months of deep strikes explains what Ukraine really targets at Russian oil refineries. The study reveals a deliberate focus on refinery processing units, whose loss cripples output far more than visible explosions do.

by Yuri Zoria, 15/10/2025 - 7 minute read (not a 30 minute Youtube video, ha ha!!!)

Ukraine’s two-month strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure wasn’t random — it followed a deliberate pattern. In a detailed analysis for Mezha, Vadym Hlushko, founder of the OSINT group Cyberboroshno, reveals exactly what Ukrainian forces targeted inside Russia’s refineries — and why each strike mattered more than its explosion.

Amid the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian war, Russia is concentrating its strategic bombing campaign on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, seeking to deprive civilians of power and heating ahead of winter. At the same time, Ukraine is in the third month of renewed long-range drone strikes against Russia’s fuel processing and transportation systems — including refineries and pipelines — aiming to disrupt military fuel logistics and reduce export revenues sustaining Moscow’s war effort.


Summer campaign marks sharp shift from earlier restraint

From spring into early summer 2025, Ukrainian forces largely avoided striking Russia's energy sector. Between 20 March and 30 June, Cyberboroshno documented 19 confirmed hits on Russian defense plants and 5 on military sites, but none on energy targets. This restraint may have stemmed from diplomatic pressure or what was described as an “energy truce,” while the focus shifted to Russia's military-industrial facilities.

The effect of those earlier strikes on defense factories was limited. Ukraine’s long-range weapons achieved some success, but without a large supply of heavy warheads, they could not inflict decisive damage on Russia’s military industry.

That dynamic shifted when Russia renewed strikes on Ukraine’s energy grid this summer. In response, Ukrainian long-range drone units reactivated their own campaign against Russian energy infrastructure. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated at the time that Ukraine could now launch 100 to 150 drones into Russia daily. While that figure still trails Russia’s output, the effects are growing more visible.

BBC verify counts 21 russian oil refineries hit since — already 48% more than all 2024

A record 14 refineries were hit in Russia in August and another 8 in September, sparking fuel shortages in many Russian regions.

image.thumb.png.93ced9e1446ba01a8bde909c6a58dc9b.png

Map showing reported Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries across the country, including multiple hits on major facilities. 

Data confirms growing strike rate and clear targeting logic
Cyberboroshno analyzed only confirmed attacks — verified through satellite images or on-site videos — excluding unverified media reports.  Between August and September 2025, 30 attacks on Russian energy infrastructure were confirmed. Of these, 23 were successful, 2 failed, and 5 had undetermined results.

That translates into roughly three confirmed successful strikes per week. For comparison, from January to March 2025, there were 2.1 confirmed energy infrastructure hits weekly. Ukraine has not only maintained the strike pace but increased it compared to earlier phases.

The increased tempo reflects a more concentrated strategy. Instead of hitting warehouses or logistics centers, Ukraine focused its strikes specifically on energy infrastructure.

Ukrainian drones hit refinery heart: AVT units and pipeline chokepoints

According to the analysis, most confirmed successful strikes — nine in total — targeted atmospheric vacuum distillation units (AVT). These are essential for primary crude oil processing. Damaging them can halt a refinery’s production entirely.

Atmospheric-vacuum distillation units (ELOU-AVT series) are the most critical and most frequently targeted installations. They perform the initial distillation of crude oil, feeding the rest of the production chain. When one is disabled, the refinery’s main operation stops.

ELOU-AVT-1 – Novokuybyshevsky refinery (1 August)
ELOU-AVT-4 – Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat (18 September)
ELOU-AVT-6 – Saratov refinery (10 August), Syzran refinery (15 August), Kirishi refinery (14 September), Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat (24 September)
ELOU-AVT-11 – Novokuybyshevsky refinery (20 September)
AVT (unspecified model) – Krasnodar refinery (30 August), Syzran refinery (15 August)
primary oil refining unit AT-22/4 – Afipsky refinery (26 September)

The second most frequent targets were technological overpasses — fuel pipeline systems inside the facilities. Five successful hits were recorded, four at refineries and one at a pumping station. These overpasses are critical for internal oil transport between installations. Even partial damage can disrupt entire production chains.

Saratov refinery (10 August)
Volgograd refinery (14 August, two overpasses)
Syzran refinery (15 August)
Bashneft-Novoil (13 September)
NPS “Vtorovo” (7 September)

Third came natural gas fractionation and gas-condensate processing units, with four confirmed hits, and an attack on the natural gas processing plant. These systems are vital for producing liquefied gas and petrochemical products — essential for domestic consumption and exports.

Ilsky refinery – gas fractionation unit (7 September)
Gazprom Ust-Luga Gas Condensate Complex – cryogenic gas fractionation unit (24 August)
Afipsky refinery – joint gas and condensate processing unit (7 and 28 August)
Astrakhan gas processing plant – production line (22 September)

Ukrainian drones also hit five pumping and dispatcher stations of Russia's oil pipelines. These facilities are central to major pipeline systems. Damaging them can halt crude oil delivery over hundreds of kilometers, affecting both domestic logistics and exports.

Unecha – pumping station and transfer zone (13 and 22 August)
LPS “Nikolskoye” – substation (18 August)
LPS “Naytovichi” – pumping station (29 August)
LPS “Samara” – pumping and reservoir installation (20 September)
NPS “Zenzavatka” – control station (24 September)
NPS “Tingovatovo” – unspecified damage (27 September)

Not all explosions signal success

Not every attack yielded significant results, as confirmed in two prominent examples. One involved the Ukhta refinery. Media reported explosions, air raid sirens, and a damaged tank, but no fire or critical damage followed. The only confirmed impact was a punctured tank that did not ignite.

In another case, video showed a blast near the Saratov refinery. Later, it turned out the drone had hit a nearby lake rather than the facility itself.

These examples underscore the need for careful post-strike assessment. As the analysis points out, a dramatic video alone does not guarantee the enemy suffered meaningful losses.

Supply disruptions ripple across Russian regions

Even some successful strikes brought only short-term effects. Damage to infrastructure tied to the Druzhba pipeline, for example, interrupted Russian fuel supplies to Hungary for only a few days before Russia restored operations.

However, many attacks did cause production and logistics disruptions. Russian open sources, reviewed by Cyberboroshno, reported fuel shortages in 33 out of 83 Russian federal subjects. These issues are now affecting consumers nationwide.

The timing of Ukraine’s campaign may have amplified its effect. The strikes coincided with peak fuel demand, as farmers require significantly more diesel during the harvest season. However, analysts suggest the Russian military is unlikely to face shortages — the armed forces are likely prioritized, while civilian sectors and exporters absorb most of the impact.
ft american intelligence helped ukraine attack over dozen key russian oil refineries since midsummer · post fire rises ilsky refinery following ukrainian drone strike 7 2025 telegram/supernova+ krasnodar krai news

Nevertheless, the campaign puts economic pressure on Moscow. Oil and petroleum products reportedly make up roughly 30% of Russia’s budget revenues.

Early numbers still misleading — true impact assessment will take time: the campaign continues into October

Determining the exact percentage of destroyed oil processing capacity remains difficult. Early in 2024, some reports claimed Ukraine had knocked out 14% of Russian refining capacity. By year-end, Russia had recovered some plants and increased output at surviving facilities. The actual annual decline was just 3%.

Now, during the current campaign, various sources report different and sometimes contradictory figures. The Russian outlet RBC claimed 38% of refinery capacity was offline, two-thirds due to Ukrainian strikes. Kommersant reported a 20% fuel shortage and a production drop of 1 million tons in September.

Cyberbotoshno notes that Ukraine’s campaign continues and conclusions remain premature.

In the first half of October, Ukraine has already hit more Russian fuel facilities.

* Ukraine struck more Russian oil refineries, including the facilities in Yaroslavl Oblast more than 700 km from Ukraine, Leningrad Oblast, facilities in Bashkortostan and Orenbug Oblast both 1,400 km away, and other processing plants.
* Several attacks targeted the Feodosiia maritime oil terminal in occupied Crimea, causing massive fires. 
* Another target was a natural gas processing plant in Volgograd Oblast.

In its October assessment, the International Energy Agency says Ukrainian drone strikes have cut Russia’s refining output by 500,000 barrels per day and will keep processing rates low until at least mid‑2026 — a forecast that does not include the impact of future strikes from Ukraine’s ongoing deep-strike campaign.

My comments:

IMO, I think the overall impact on Russian refining capacity is more than the 500,000 BPD going around.  Just some of the photos of the burning towers indicate that the main process units were damaged/destroyed. Some of those process towers had individual capacities of ~ 100,000 BPD. 

I just don't see that Russia has the skilled labor necessary to rebuild any of that any time soon. Anybody that wasn't working on a full time basis was probably conscripted and sent to Ukraine a long time ago. To rebuild refinery process units, there are probably 30-50 types of different craftsman required, each requiring unique skill sets that come from years of experience. 

"If you don't have the time to do it right the first time, when will you have the time to come and fix it?"

I remember the days of 24-36 week delivery times on large equipment items (over a year on large gas turbines) that were critical path items on the project completion schedule, and the shenanigans of other companies trying to "buy" your stuff or jump ahead of what was already on the assembly line. (I myself did not participate in those shenanigans, I just used my insight and ingenuity to get what I was entitled to.) That was from normal supply and demand, not trying replace something intentionally damaged in a war zone.   

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Posted (edited)

Edit: The video does not show the physical altercation that followed - the Swiss man protecting his wife and two-year-old child from the Russian - but Ivan was arrested by Swiss police and the nation of Ukraine has demanded that the Swiss investigate this criminality, putting pressure on the prosecution. 

Edited by Gatorubet
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