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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Oh, they absolutely did this to themselves, especially Germany.  The 1-2 punch of 1) we'll depend on Russian gas for everything, and 2) we'll get rid of nuclear generation because we have a strident, reflexive, and irrational hatred of all things nuclear was dumb as shit.  When your plans all boil down to "hey, we'll always have cheap Russian gas," your plans are stupid.

On Point No. 1, what was really their choice?  Going back to the advent of the oil-based economy, Germany has always had to depend on Russia for oil and gas (and for a variety of other natural resources, including aluminum, manganese, and copper).  Where else were they going to go for oil and gas?  Qatar and pay 50% more?  Who's going to agree to that?

The sad fact is that Germany is (and has always been) relatively natural-resource poor relative to its industrial output.  It is always going to need to import oil and gas.  And at the extreme risk of telling a truth here, there aren't many palatable regimes that are hydrocarbon-rich with whom the Germans could deal to meet their demands.

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1 minute ago, Ghost of LL said:

On Point No. 1, what was really their choice?  Going back to the advent of the oil-based economy, Germany has always had to depend on Russia for oil and gas (and for a variety of other natural resources, including aluminum, manganese, and copper).  Where else were they going to go for oil and gas?  Qatar and pay 50% more?  Who's going to agree to that?

The sad fact is that Germany is (and has always been) relatively natural-resource poor relative to its industrial output.  It is always going to need to import oil and gas.  And at the extreme risk of telling a truth here, there aren't many palatable regimes that are hydrocarbon-rich with whom the Germans could deal to meet their demands.

Don't look now but the Germans are ahead of schedule getting gas storage filled for the winter. So they get it from other disreputable countries. And maybe take a look at that Thorium salt reactor. Or at the very least see how it works out for China while you think about those 99 balloons.

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14 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

On Point No. 1, what was really their choice?  Going back to the advent of the oil-based economy, Germany has always had to depend on Russia for oil and gas (and for a variety of other natural resources, including aluminum, manganese, and copper).  Where else were they going to go for oil and gas?  Qatar and pay 50% more?  Who's going to agree to that?

The sad fact is that Germany is (and has always been) relatively natural-resource poor relative to its industrial output.  It is always going to need to import oil and gas.  And at the extreme risk of telling a truth here, there aren't many palatable regimes that are hydrocarbon-rich with whom the Germans could deal to meet their demands.

Sure sounds like Ukraine has/had surplus electricity that could have been had. And how much gas does Azerbaijan have, since it is upping its output to EU?

It sure feels like Germany and other countries could have diversified some of their raw mats imports. 

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31 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

On Point No. 1, what was really their choice?  Going back to the advent of the oil-based economy, Germany has always had to depend on Russia for oil and gas (and for a variety of other natural resources, including aluminum, manganese, and copper).  Where else were they going to go for oil and gas?  Qatar and pay 50% more?  Who's going to agree to that?

The sad fact is that Germany is (and has always been) relatively natural-resource poor relative to its industrial output.  It is always going to need to import oil and gas.  And at the extreme risk of telling a truth here, there aren't many palatable regimes that are hydrocarbon-rich with whom the Germans could deal to meet their demands.

 

26 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

Don't look now but the Germans are ahead of schedule getting gas storage filled for the winter. So they get it from other disreputable countries. And maybe take a look at that Thorium salt reactor. Or at the very least see how it works out for China while you think about those 99 balloons.

 

15 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Sure sounds like Ukraine has/had surplus electricity that could have been had. And how much gas does Azerbaijan have, since it is upping its output to EU?

It sure feels like Germany and other countries could have diversified some of their raw mats imports. 

Germany’s industrial business model was based largely on reliable, cheap and plentiful Russian gas. So they were willing to look past a lot. 

And if you take it a step further, given that German prosperity and current account surplus was largely dependent on the gas, after this whole conflict is done there will be some pretty drastic shifts in the EU economy and relations to hash out. 

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4 hours ago, Chad Fuck said:

Looking forward, I'm thinking everyone on that side of the world is beefing up their eastern borders asap.  Even if Putin gets nixed, we know at some point in the future the Russians are going to put a despot in power and get frisky again.  

This is worth repeating.

Russia's need for a buffer between it and Western Europe isn't going away. Moscow is vulnerable to attack from the West; there's few natural boundaries between them. And they've been invaded twice in the past few centuries for just that reason. So they've always wanted buffer states to add distance between Moscow and the West.

The trouble is, by trying to seize the land by deception and force, Putin has made their situation infinitely worse. How far is new NATO member Finland from St. Petersburg? And Ukrainian nationalism has been galvanized by the invasion.

Things are as bad for Russia as they've been since the Mongols invaded.

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1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

They asked the people to stop talking so much online about this offensive. And everyone went mostly silent. It's not a matter of good news would be shouted. That's the opposite of what they want. Shut the hell up for the present and let them work. 

Fine by me.

The last thing the Ukrainians need is a bunch of wannabe Geraldos giving out troop movements.

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5 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

This is worth repeating.

Russia's need for a buffer between it and Western Europe isn't going away. Moscow is vulnerable to attack from the West; there's few natural boundaries between them. And they've been invaded twice in the past few centuries for just that reason. So they've always wanted buffer states to add distance between Moscow and the West.

The trouble is, by trying to seize the land by deception and force, Putin has made their situation infinitely worse. How far is new NATO member Finland from St. Petersburg? And Ukrainian nationalism has been galvanized by the invasion.

Things are as bad for Russia as they've been since the Mongols invaded.

Easy. Give up the land west of the urals. Problem solved 

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52 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

On Point No. 1, what was really their choice?

Last I checked, Germany is functionally the same dirt as the Netherlands and France.

France: 70% of its power is from nuclear energy.  But Germany pisses their pants over the thought of even allowing an X-ray machine in the country.

Netherlands: capacity of 14 bcm of LNG, ramping up to 24 bcm.  But Germany has NONE -- working on completing 7.5 bcm capacity to come online....by early 2023.

Germany had choices.  Russian gas (via pipeline) was both the cheapest and the highest risk.  Germany chose bolded term 1 with zero regard for bolded term 2.  Now that bolded term 2 has come to pass, bolded term 1 ain't true anymore.  Buy something cheap and shitty, understand that it's going to fail on you and you're going to have to replace it at the least opportune time.  Better to buy something slightly more expensive but more reliable.  And if you have an irrational phobia about one of those things (nuclear), you're a dumbass.

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3 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

They make it worse on themselves. 

Their need for a "buffer" caused them to start a war with Finland, divide Poland with Nazi Germany, make their neighbors satellites who hate them and now invade Ukraine.

Learn to a better neighbor.  Finland wasn't going to invade.  Poland wasn't going to invade.  Ukraine wasn't going to invade.

Fuck those guys.

This.  Wanna know a good way to have a neighbor who is a friend, not a foe?  Don't treat them like shit, like your property, etc.  Shit on someone for 1,000 years, and it's kinda stupid when you ask "why don't you have my back?  What do you mean you hate me?"

We don't have NATO allies because we threaten to destroy them if they don't align with us.  We have them because we make and honor a mutual pledge to have each other's back.  It ain't perfect, but it's worked out a lot better for us than Russia's "treat everyone like shit" plan.

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1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:

On Point No. 1, what was really their choice?  Going back to the advent of the oil-based economy, Germany has always had to depend on Russia for oil and gas (and for a variety of other natural resources, including aluminum, manganese, and copper).  Where else were they going to go for oil and gas?  Qatar and pay 50% more?  Who's going to agree to that?

The sad fact is that Germany is (and has always been) relatively natural-resource poor relative to its industrial output.  It is always going to need to import oil and gas.  And at the extreme risk of telling a truth here, there aren't many palatable regimes that are hydrocarbon-rich with whom the Germans could deal to meet their demands.

Agreed but they should have had some level of diversification and backup plans to avoid the situation they are in now. 

36 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

This is worth repeating.

Russia's need for a buffer between it and Western Europe isn't going away. Moscow is vulnerable to attack from the West; there's few natural boundaries between them. And they've been invaded twice in the past few centuries for just that reason. So they've always wanted buffer states to add distance between Moscow and the West.

The trouble is, by trying to seize the land by deception and force, Putin has made their situation infinitely worse. How far is new NATO member Finland from St. Petersburg? And Ukrainian nationalism has been galvanized by the invasion.

Things are as bad for Russia as they've been since the Mongols invaded.

They have nukes now, they don't need geographical bottlenecks or buffer states. 

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^Might want to avoid any buildings with windows. There was another report earlier asking the propagandists to stop using the Z and V logos, so some sort of crackdown is happening, but we're not sure why or what that means

 

Ukrainian Armed Forces caught prisoner "Kashnik" from PMC Wagner 

^First wagner prisoner captured. He says they're a mix of free people and convicts. They were taken to some factory with a bunker in Stakhanov, but only one person out f all of them could even use a grenade launcher

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1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

Russia's need for a buffer between it and Western Europe isn't going away. Moscow is vulnerable to attack from the West; there's few natural boundaries between them. And they've been invaded twice in the past few centuries for just that reason.

You ‘now what they have now, that 100% protects them from unprovoked attacks form Western Europe and Asia?

It’s something that they’ve had for over 60 years,  but didn’t have in previous centuries.

it means that Russia will never be invaded, unless Russia itself deliberately fucks around and gives other countries no choices.

Here’s a hint:

Explode War GIF

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And I’ve watched plenty of Peter Zeihan videos, and grasp the Russian mindset or paranoia about being invaded.  Btw, he now admits to being wrong about Russia easily winning.

Here’s the thing though: Every accusation is a confession with Russia.  Because it (or rather Putin) thinks constantly about invading its neighbors and stealing their resources and people, it assumes that Western Europe thinks about invading Russia and stealing its resources and people.  

The reality is that if given a chance, Western Europe will happily buy those resources for a pretty penny and make Russia rich, and the only reason Russians leave for those countries is that Putin is not improving Russia and bringing it up to first world status.

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4 hours ago, MillerEP said:

 

What are the chances Ukraine can keep the Russians hemmed in and not able to cross back east.

1 hour ago, Rimbo said:

This is worth repeating.

Russia's need for a buffer between it and Western Europe isn't going away. Moscow is vulnerable to attack from the West; there's few natural boundaries between them. And they've been invaded twice in the past few centuries for just that reason. So they've always wanted buffer states to add distance between Moscow and the West.

The trouble is, by trying to seize the land by deception and force, Putin has made their situation infinitely worse. How far is new NATO member Finland from St. Petersburg? And Ukrainian nationalism has been galvanized by the invasion.

Things are as bad for Russia as they've been since the Mongols invaded.

So maybe don't shit on all your neighbors for the last 200 years. 

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1 hour ago, Chad Fuck said:

They make it worse on themselves. 

Their need for a "buffer" caused them to start a war with Finland, divide Poland with Nazi Germany, make their neighbors satellites who hate them and now invade Ukraine.

Learn to a better neighbor.  Finland wasn't going to invade.  Poland wasn't going to invade.  Ukraine wasn't going to invade.

Fuck those guys.

 

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

This.  Wanna know a good way to have a neighbor who is a friend, not a foe?  Don't treat them like shit, like your property, etc.  Shit on someone for 1,000 years, and it's kinda stupid when you ask "why don't you have my back?  What do you mean you hate me?"

We don't have NATO allies because we threaten to destroy them if they don't align with us.  We have them because we make and honor a mutual pledge to have each other's back.  It ain't perfect, but it's worked out a lot better for us than Russia's "treat everyone like shit" plan.

I mean, this is a nice sentiment and all, but what did Russia do to provoke Napoleon's invasion?

It doesn't matter if they're nice or not. Some dickhead will come to power and decide to invade everything he can. No matter how nice Russia is, someone will want to capture Moscow. Maybe not this century or the next, but eventually, and that threat is always there for Moscow.

Moscow will always have a geopolitical need for a buffer zone.

I mean, in one of @Chad Fuck's own examples, Germany played nice with Russia, only to invade. So being nice won't work.

The point I'm making here is the same point Poland and Ukraine and other Eastern Europeans have made: Russia is an existential threat to them, because Moscow will always have a need to build this buffer zone.

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45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You ‘now what they have now, that 100% protects them from unprovoked attacks form Western Europe and Asia?

It’s something that they’ve had for over 60 years,  but didn’t have in previous centuries.

it means that Russia will never be invaded, unless Russia itself deliberately fucks around and gives other countries no choices.

Here’s a hint:

Explode War GIF

It's not enough, because if you have to use them, it's already too late.

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47 minutes ago, Parliament said:

What are the chances Ukraine can keep the Russians hemmed in and not able to cross back east.

Pretty good.  They can still flee east simply by hopping on a boat, but they lose irreplaceable heavy equipment in the process.  Russia relies too heavily on rail and bridges and Ukraine is doing a fantastic job of hitting bridges and pontoons and ferries..  That forces Russia to bring in supplies through railheads farther away (northeast Ukraine) and they simply don’t have the truck infrastructure for the last hundred or more miles in a lot of areas, which makes it hard to move supplies, ammo, and troops around, and cuts into reinforcing those hemmed-in troops.

If Ukraine could take out or degrade the Kerch bridge, it’s arguably over for those eastern areas, as not only are those areas already struggling with keeping Russian troops supplied around the LPR/DPR, but all Russian troops in the south and/or in Crimea would have to be supplied using those same eastern rail lines, which would collapse the Russian logistics system.  And that’s not getting into Ukraine hitting railheads in the east.

Geography with lots of water features is not kind to countries like Russia that rely too heavily on railroads.  

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17 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

It's not enough, because if you have to use them, it's already too late.

Russia has 6,000 nukes ranging from towed artillery and battlefield rockets to strategic bombers and submarines.  Russia also believes that if their national security is threatened (i.e. their borders), they can and should use tactical and/or strategic nukes from the very start, and it’s built into their military doctrine to use nukes in that situation.

Nobody in Western Europe is going to invade Russia proper because of that.  

Nobody.

Edit: for fuck’s sake, several countries were afraid to supply Ukraine with long range stuff out of a fear Russia would go ahead and make parts of Ukraine glow, and Russia has openly talked about nuking NATO countries for helping Ukraine.  Nobody is invading Russia proper.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

And I’ve watched plenty of Peter Zeihan videos, and grasp the Russian mindset or paranoia about being invaded.  Btw, he now admits to being wrong about Russia easily winning.

Here’s the thing though: Every accusation is a confession with Russia.  Because it (or rather Putin) thinks constantly about invading its neighbors and stealing their resources and people, it assumes that Western Europe thinks about invading Russia and stealing its resources and people.  

The reality is that if given a chance, Western Europe will happily buy those resources for a pretty penny and make Russia rich, and the only reason Russians leave for those countries is that Putin is not improving Russia and bringing it up to first world status.

This.  Excellent post.

Russia is super afraid of other countries treating Russia like......Russia intends to treat those other countries.

Which actually makes a compelling case for Poland to go ahead and invade Russia.

It's amazing how many problems can be avoided if you just choose not to be a piece of dick.  No, not EVERY problem is avoided, but now that they have nukes, yeah, all the big ones can be avoided.

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7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

It's amazing how many problems can be avoided if you just choose not to be a piece of dick.  No, not EVERY problem is avoided, but now that they have nukes, yeah, all the big ones can be avoided.

Russia has far more to fear from its republics like Chechnya trying to break away than a European country invading it these days.

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