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Patrick Bateman

2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don

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16 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Have there ever been studies as to whether, beyond a certain level, spending money on political advertising does anything?   I think more than one billion dollars is going to be spent on advertising this presidential campaign.  Is any of it going to change anybody's mind at all about  Trump? If the last four year doesn't convince you that he's an amoral sociopath, will Joe Biden's advertising?

Doubtful.

It’s an interesting theory. Look at Bloomberg for example. Tons of money and minimal movement. 

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21 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

If the last four year doesn't convince you that he's an amoral sociopath, will Joe Biden's advertising?

It could, yes.

Only half of eligible voters even vote, and only a portion of those keep up with stuff beforehand. An advertising blitz aimed at unlikely voters might be a big deal.

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4 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s an interesting theory. Look at Bloomberg for example. Tons of money and minimal movement. 

That's because Bloomberg is detestable and has an off-putting personality. He has no charm or interest so exposing him was actually worse for him.

Joe has personality and it's easy to like the right version of Joe. A full-on "Uncle Joe!" campaign of him being cool and relatable and saying "c'mon man!" again and again with his signature smile, driving Corvettes and running up and down stairs would be good. Hug some Mexican kids. Shoot baskets with some black kids. Eat big ice cream cones with an Asian toddler.

The black kid on the basketball court steals Joe's ball, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

Asian toddler grabs his ice cream with her hand, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

SAY THE LINE, JOE!

WelloffFarflungBarnswallow-size_restrict

 

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22 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s an interesting theory. Look at Bloomberg for example. Tons of money and minimal movement. 

Bloomberg’s money was working well, he was even making a dent with Black voters but he ran into a bit of a buzzsaw in the debates and it went viral.  

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A lot of it is just to spend to counter the other guys spending.  You don’t want to bleed support because someone is yelling ANTIFA! every five seconds.  So you have to be able to yell unemployment and pandemic and toddler back so the voters don’t get distracted. 

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45 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Doesn’t early voting begin in some states this week?

Probably - North Carolina's mail in ballots could be sent in starting last week IIRC.

GoLL alluded to it, but both that and early voting likely being higher should help with the accuracy of likely voter polls. You'll have exit polling data in them now.

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11 hours ago, gmr548 said:
15 hours ago, Voldemort86 said:
Biden is favored in Nebraska’s 2nd district.  That would get Biden to 270 in your scenario.
michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona seem to be looking good for Biden.  

There have been zero quality polls there and Ds couldn't flip the congressional seat in 2018. Biden being favored there is an unreliable shot in the dark. I wouldn't hold your breath.

Biden is running 5-8 points ahead of the progressive Dem candidate (Eastman) in NE-2.  Yes, there is scant polling to confirm that, but I think most people would agree that Biden should do better against Trump, than Eastman (female progressive with a background in non-profits) will do against Bacon (former air force general, who campaigns towards the middle, while voting in line with GOP). Bacon knows this as well, which is why he is going everything he can to avoid saying Trump's name. Don Jr. stopped by yesterday to stump for Trump, and Bacon didn't say shit on any of his social media platforms about it. The Eastman/Bacon race was within 2 points at the midterm, which was a surprise, and that was before a pandemic and unemployment spike.  It's a coin flip now.  Prior to the '18 midterm, CQR had Bacon at +4 and +7.  Same pollsters currently have Eastman at +1.  Both parties have had this race on their top 10 list for over a year.  

As far as I can tell, neither Biden nor Trump have any appreciable ground force in the district.  Biden is basically running his campaign through the Nebraska Democratic Party, in coordination with the Eastman campaign.  I assume Trump's approach is similar.  For my relatively Democratic area, I would say that Eastman signs outnumber Bacon signs 2:1, and Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 10:1.  I can think of only five Trump signs I've seen on my walks, which is probably about a 3 mile radius.  I see that as more of a sign of lack of voter engagement from the Trump campaign, rather than lack of voter interest, but who knows. My neighborhood is not a suburb, but is mainly white, educated, upper middle class, so a similar stereotype.  

It's not just an "unreliable shot in the dark" that Biden is favored in NE-2.  But obviously it's not a lock.  Lean blue makes sense.  

And speaking of outside money pouring into the race, if anyone wants to help my girl Eastman, and Biden by extension, here's a link to throw money at. 

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2 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

All these polls coming out.  Woof. 
 

ive seen enough. I’m calling it, 9:01 central time. 
 

joe Biden will be the 46th president of the United States. 

I'm calling it.  9:01 central time I will be at least 6 beers deep.

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12 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm calling it.  9:01 central time I will be at least 6 beers deep.

I believe he meant right now, sir. So at the very least I expect you to start speaking in the present tense and make good on your fucking word. 

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1 hour ago, Pig Bellmont said:

It’s the second one, but given that it’s the Trumps, it’s also likely bullshit

Most matching programs are partially BS. Happens with charities and I assume PACs.  

Say that a rich person wants to donate $1m to Charity X. Charity X tells them that the charity might get more overall money if they create a matching program with small dollar donors. Then they send out a campaign email to small dollar donors telling them about his program and that the first $1m is being matched by an anonymous person.  People then donate because they think their donation is being doubled. 

Most likely that $1m is being donated regardless.  Not guaranteed. It's possible the rich benefactor will stick to the wording of the campaign.

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30 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

All these polls coming out.  Woof. 
 

 

That Minnesota poll this morning (Biden +16) is UUUUGLY.

And Biden up more in the LV sample for Wisconsin than the RV sample is good for him, but still within the MOE (not my words but the words of the pollster). 

Minny and Wisky polls

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39 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Biden is running 5-8 points ahead of the progressive Dem candidate (Eastman) in NE-2.  Yes, there is scant polling to confirm that, but I think most people would agree that Biden should do better against Trump, than Eastman (female progressive with a background in non-profits) will do against Bacon (former air force general, who campaigns towards the middle, while voting in line with GOP). Bacon knows this as well, which is why he is going everything he can to avoid saying Trump's name. Don Jr. stopped by yesterday to stump for Trump, and Bacon didn't say shit on any of his social media platforms about it. The Eastman/Bacon race was within 2 points at the midterm, which was a surprise, and that was before a pandemic and unemployment spike.  It's a coin flip now.  Prior to the '18 midterm, CQR had Bacon at +4 and +7.  Same pollsters currently have Eastman at +1.  Both parties have had this race on their top 10 list for over a year.  

As far as I can tell, neither Biden nor Trump have any appreciable ground force in the district.  Biden is basically running his campaign through the Nebraska Democratic Party, in coordination with the Eastman campaign.  I assume Trump's approach is similar.  For my relatively Democratic area, I would say that Eastman signs outnumber Bacon signs 2:1, and Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 10:1.  I can think of only five Trump signs I've seen on my walks, which is probably about a 3 mile radius.  I see that as more of a sign of lack of voter engagement from the Trump campaign, rather than lack of voter interest, but who knows. My neighborhood is not a suburb, but is mainly white, educated, upper middle class, so a similar stereotype.  

It's not just an "unreliable shot in the dark" that Biden is favored in NE-2.  But obviously it's not a lock.  Lean blue makes sense.  

And speaking of outside money pouring into the race, if anyone wants to help my girl Eastman, and Biden by extension, here's a link to throw money at. 

This is all kinds of kickass. 

Sent her some dollars 

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State of Play in Michigan.

MI-3 is Justin Amash's district and is rated as a GOP +6 district. Trump won it by 10 in 2016. Lots of heavily red rural areas offset partially by including a good chunk of Grand Rapids. 

It's a partisan internal poll, so take with a heavy dose of salt, but even if it's off by the full 5% margin of error, Biden running even or better in MI-3 means the state overall isn't close and Biden likely wins MI by Obama '12 margin (+9.5). In '18, Gov. Whitmer won statewide by 10 after losing by just 1 in MI-3.

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

That's because Bloomberg is detestable and has an off-putting personality. He has no charm or interest so exposing him was actually worse for him.

Joe has personality and it's easy to like the right version of Joe. A full-on "Uncle Joe!" campaign of him being cool and relatable and saying "c'mon man!" again and again with his signature smile, driving Corvettes and running up and down stairs would be good. Hug some Mexican kids. Shoot baskets with some black kids. Eat big ice cream cones with an Asian toddler.

The black kid on the basketball court steals Joe's ball, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

Asian toddler grabs his ice cream with her hand, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

SAY THE LINE, JOE!

WelloffFarflungBarnswallow-size_restrict

 

This you?

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1 hour ago, bad_teammate said:

That's because Bloomberg is detestable and has an off-putting personality. He has no charm or interest so exposing him was actually worse for him.

Joe has personality and it's easy to like the right version of Joe. A full-on "Uncle Joe!" campaign of him being cool and relatable and saying "c'mon man!" again and again with his signature smile, driving Corvettes and running up and down stairs would be good. Hug some Mexican kids. Shoot baskets with some black kids. Eat big ice cream cones with an Asian toddler.

The black kid on the basketball court steals Joe's ball, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

Asian toddler grabs his ice cream with her hand, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

SAY THE LINE, JOE!

WelloffFarflungBarnswallow-size_restrict

 

This is actually a really good strategy 

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On the campaign trail and in his television ads, Trump proclaims that a great and historic economic recovery is afoot. The notion that the economy is sick enough to require a trillion-dollar booster shot is in direct tension with the claim that it’s thriving. So, the theory goes, Trump is unwilling to advocate for stimulus, because he doesn’t want to acknowledge that the economy is broken in the first place.

-----

Overall, Americans’ evaluation of the economy these days has very little to do with reality. An analysis by the University of Michigan’s Richard Curtin found that partisan differences in how people perceive the state of the economy has never been higher. In other words, at any given moment, Democrats and Republicans claim to be seeing almost completely opposite countries. Take, for example, a Fox News poll from last week. Two-thirds of Republicans said the economy is “excellent” or “good,” almost the exact same share who approved of Trump’s job performance. Meanwhile, just 16 percent of Democrats said the economy was “excellent” or “good,” also close to the same share who approved of Trump’s job performance.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/09/why-isnt-trump-trying-win/616361/

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2 hours ago, bad_teammate said:

That's because Bloomberg is detestable and has an off-putting personality. He has no charm or interest so exposing him was actually worse for him.

Joe has personality and it's easy to like the right version of Joe. A full-on "Uncle Joe!" campaign of him being cool and relatable and saying "c'mon man!" again and again with his signature smile, driving Corvettes and running up and down stairs would be good. Hug some Mexican kids. Shoot baskets with some black kids. Eat big ice cream cones with an Asian toddler.

The black kid on the basketball court steals Joe's ball, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

Asian toddler grabs his ice cream with her hand, Joe looks at the camera, "C'mon man!"

SAY THE LINE, JOE!

WelloffFarflungBarnswallow-size_restrict

 

Trump doing anything Trump...’c’mon man!’

He should run with this.  Because just laughing at Trump is the best strategy.  Seriously addressing any of his BS is falling right into his hands.  Never do that.  Just laugh.  You aren’t winning his 30% over anyway.  

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51 minutes ago, The Dog said:

That Minnesota poll this morning (Biden +16) is UUUUGLY.

And Biden up more in the LV sample for Wisconsin than the RV sample is good for him, but still within the MOE (not my words but the words of the pollster). 

Minny and Wisky polls

They're really burying the lede to call Wisconsin "close."  A challenger polling at 52% among likely voters does not make for a particularly close election.  And don't give me any MOE bullshit--not when that tracks with every other Wisconsin poll out recently.  CNN also had Biden at 52% earlier this week.  NYT had Biden up 5% (48-43) also this week.  And before that, during the first two weeks in September you had four different polls of likely voters all showing Biden at either 50% or 51%. 

All of which is to say fuck the MOE.  Maybe you have some herding among pollsters, but I doubt it.  What I think it reflects instead is a very stable race in which Biden has a small majority and there are very few undecideds.  

I'm becoming very comfortable about Biden's position in Wisconsin.

It's Pennsylvania that might give me an ulcer.  

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2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Trump doing anything Trump...’c’mon man!’

He should run with this.  Because just laughing at Trump is the best strategy.  Seriously addressing any of his BS is falling right into his hands.  Never do that.  Just laugh.  You aren’t winning his 30% over anyway.  

Agreed, nothing gets under Don's skin more than being laughed at. Joe smirking on stage while Don sputters out angry sentence fragments will be too good.

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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm calling it.  9:01 central time I will be at least 6 beers deep.

I’ll be completely toe down fucked up by then. I’m either going to be one of the happiest people on earth or have a lot of broken shit in my house. 

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22 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

On the campaign trail and in his television ads, Trump proclaims that a great and historic economic recovery is afoot. The notion that the economy is sick enough to require a trillion-dollar booster shot is in direct tension with the claim that it’s thriving. So, the theory goes, Trump is unwilling to advocate for stimulus, because he doesn’t want to acknowledge that the economy is broken in the first place.

it seems like an absolute no-brainer to approve direct checks, more unemployment, and other assistance to voters.  so much so that it almost seems like an illegal bribe, but isn't.

it makes so much sense that of course he's not going to do it.  moron.

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6 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I’ll be completely toe down fucked up by then. I’m either going to be one of the happiest people on earth or have a lot of broken shit in my house. 

I'm taking the day after the election off work, but problem is, I don't think we are going to have a call on election night.  I think at least the entire month of November the election is going to be up in the air, if not longer than that.

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7 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

They're really burying the lede to call Wisconsin "close."  A challenger polling at 52% among likely voters does not make for a particularly close election.  And don't give me any MOE bullshit--not when that tracks with every other Wisconsin poll out recently.  CNN also had Biden at 52% earlier this week.  NYT had Biden up 5% (48-43) also this week.  And before that, during the first two weeks in September you had four different polls of likely voters all showing Biden at either 50% or 51%. 

All of which is to say fuck the MOE.  Maybe you have some herding among pollsters, but I doubt it.  What I think it reflects instead is a very stable race in which Biden has a small majority and there are very few undecideds.  

I'm becoming very comfortable about Biden's position in Wisconsin.

It's Pennsylvania that might give me an ulcer.  

Everything I'm seeing out of MN/WI/MI tells me we're looking at basically 2012 again. Biden gets 51.5-53.5% in each of those 3 and wins by anywhere from 4 in WI to 8 in MI and MN.

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I'm taking the day after the election off work, but problem is, I don't think we are going to have a call on election night.  I think at least the entire month of November the election is going to be up in the air, if not longer than that.

I know that has become the popular opinion, but I really don't think so.

The only full vote-by-mail states are ones that aren't in dispute.  Nobody thinks Trump is going to win California or Oregon (or even Colorado).  So the delay with those states doesn't really impact the call.

States like Pennsylvania, Floridam and Texas have the same voting procedures they've always had.  And while there are definitely going to be more mail-in ballots, in those states the ballots have to be received by 7:00 on Election Day.  So there shouldn't be any delay in counting them.  We are going to know on Election Night who has won Pennsylvania, Florida, and Texas.

And those states are going to tell you who has won the election.  If Biden wins any of those three states, this thing is probably over.

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18 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

They're really burying the lede to call Wisconsin "close."  A challenger polling at 52% among likely voters does not make for a particularly close election.  And don't give me any MOE bullshit--not when that tracks with every other Wisconsin poll out recently.  CNN also had Biden at 52% earlier this week.  NYT had Biden up 5% (48-43) also this week.  And before that, during the first two weeks in September you had four different polls of likely voters all showing Biden at either 50% or 51%. 

All of which is to say fuck the MOE.  Maybe you have some herding among pollsters, but I doubt it.  What I think it reflects instead is a very stable race in which Biden has a small majority and there are very few undecideds.  

I'm becoming very comfortable about Biden's position in Wisconsin.

It's Pennsylvania that might give me an ulcer.  

Yeah I thought the Wisconsin comments were a bit dubious in context. Biden's RCP average for Wisconsin is currently at 50.1% and has been polling at or above 50% in the state pretty consistently. Hillary never polled near 50% and was mostly in the mid 40s all the way to election day, which left enough undecideds out there to swing to Trump and pull off the win. If Biden simply performs at his RCP polling average then he's going to win the state. 

Biden has also been polling at or near 50% in Pennsylvania for quite some time as well. 

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1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Everything I'm seeing out of MN/WI/MI tells me we're looking at basically 2012 again. Biden gets 51.5-53.5% in each of those 3 and wins by anywhere from 4 in WI to 8 in MI and MN.

2012 with Iowa red is a plausible,  close to best case outcome.  2016 with Michigan blue is also plausible, and a close to worst case outcome.  “Decided” delegates favor Biden 244-125 and that includes MI and MN.  There are 169 still in play.  It’s amazing and damning that Biden’s upside is 389-149 and Trump’s is 290-248, yet the thinking across the board is that this thing is going to be close.

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2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Rasmussen going all in.

Trump Approval 52-46.

Trump +1 (47-46) nationally.

I'm glad Rasmussen is putting out polls in favor of Trump. If he and his campaign choose to believe they're actually winning, then they'll keep stepping in shit until November 3rd. 

 

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27 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

They're really burying the lede to call Wisconsin "close."  A challenger polling at 52% among likely voters does not make for a particularly close election.  And don't give me any MOE bullshit--not when that tracks with every other Wisconsin poll out recently.  CNN also had Biden at 52% earlier this week.  NYT had Biden up 5% (48-43) also this week.  And before that, during the first two weeks in September you had four different polls of likely voters all showing Biden at either 50% or 51%. 

All of which is to say fuck the MOE.  Maybe you have some herding among pollsters, but I doubt it.  What I think it reflects instead is a very stable race in which Biden has a small majority and there are very few undecideds.  

I'm becoming very comfortable about Biden's position in Wisconsin.

It's Pennsylvania that might give me an ulcer.  

I think Wisconsin is trending towards Ohio, with Pa at the tipping point and Michigan not far behind. Unless the Democratic party radically changes their strategy towards working class economic concerns in the next four years the future of the coalition will need to run through Texas and the Southwest, with a southeastern beachhead in Ga and Florida as the new Pennsylvania. 

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43 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Trump doing anything Trump...’c’mon man!’

He should run with this.  Because just laughing at Trump is the best strategy.  Seriously addressing any of his BS is falling right into his hands.  Never do that.  Just laugh.  You aren’t winning his 30% over anyway.  

 

40 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Agreed, nothing gets under Don's skin more than being laughed at. Joe smirking on stage while Don sputters out angry sentence fragments will be too good.

 

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I think Wisconsin is trending towards Ohio, with Pa at the tipping point and Michigan not far behind. Unless the Democratic party radically changes their strategy towards working class economic concerns in the next four years the future of the coalition will need to run through Texas and the Southwest, with a southeastern beachhead in Ga and Florida as the new Pennsylvania. 

It's funny you folks mention laughing, and end trend lines in the northern state blocks. Here is an excellent article I'm mostly done with, but haven't seen linked here yet. Sorry if it has been and I missed it. We all are obsessed with winning. But this article brings up an excellent topic about healing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/opinion/biden-trump-humiliation.html

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14 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 Unless the Democratic party radically changes their strategy towards working class economic concerns in the next four years the future of the coalition will need to run through Texas and the Southwest, with a southeastern beachhead in Ga and Florida as the new Pennsylvania. 

Are you suggesting that somehow the republicans are currently addressing the working class economic needs better? If yes, then I'd really like to see how the trump admin is making things better economically for working class people. I'd argue exactly the opposite is true. 

If those states go red, it's not about economic needs, it's about the welfare babies and scary black and brown people trying to teek their juubs and freedom. 

Edited by totallynotabuttpirate

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1 minute ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

Are you suggesting that somehow the republicans are currently addressing the working class economic needs better? If yes, then I'd really like to see how the trump admin is making things better economically for working class people. I'd argue exactly the opposite is true. 

If those states go red, it's not about economic needs, it's about the scary black and brown people trying to teek their juubs and freedom. 

Read the article I posted. It's not about addressing the needs, it's about talking to the people and having them believe you that you hear them and want to address their needs. 

Policy doesn't make a fuck all of a difference at this point. Perception is reality, and Trump has won the blue collar workers. 

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Read the article I posted. It's not about addressing the needs, it's about talking to the people and having them believe you that you hear them and want to address their needs. 

Policy doesn't make a fuck all of a difference at this point. Perception is reality, and Trump has won the blue collar workers. 

I did read the opinion article. My point still stands, Trump won them by appealing to the lowest common denominator. Anyone who falls for that shit is hopeless. 

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Debate idea for the Biden campaign: prepare to call Trump out on specific lies. Have the social media guy prepare tweets. Trump will say something that is an obvious lie and Biden can call it out saying "if you go to my Twitter right now, you will find a video of you saying the exact opposite of what you just said here on stage." That would direct traffic from both Rs and Ds to the video. Imagine what the social media feeds would look like during all that.

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2 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

I should add, if you honestly believe that these trump voters just  "wanted someone to listen to them", I have a bridge to sell you. It's a class/race war, always has been. 

Yep, ‘hey look, you’re poor and being shit on but we promise you, you’re better than those people.’

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Poor republican's are just temporarily poor. That's why they only support policies and tax cuts that benefit the rich, because they'll be there one day. And if they don't become rich, it's because of those other people who are different than them. Used to be the jews, now it's the darkies. 

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6 minutes ago, totallynotabuttpirate said:

I should add, if you honestly believe that these trump voters just  "wanted someone to listen to them", I have a bridge to sell you. It's a class/race war, always has been. 

Yep in hindsight it was KGB level genius. Finance your most popular evil narcissistic  corrupt puppet, get him in charge of a racist birther movement on Twitter, make him a hero to all the disenfranchised American whites both parties have fucked over who are seething that a black man became president, then run for president once that black man is out of the way. 
 

Trump supporters love him unconditionally because in their minds he is the last thing standing in the way of the black and brown hordes (and the traitor white libs) taking over their country and further marginalizing  the white working class. 
 

It’s a race and class thing and always has been. They don’t care what trump does because of that alone. 

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7 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's still the Jews, too.

Trump supporters hate Obama and the white traitor libs far more than the Jews. They don’t hate the blacks and browns they just want them to stay in their place. 

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My worry re: polls & Trump voters is that no one will admit they voted for him. It is like a deep dark secret they won't own up to.

I think Trump voters are nervous about the shit they will rightfully get for putting this dipshit into office and never will admit they will fucking do it again in the upcoming election.

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24 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's funny you folks mention laughing, and end trend lines in the northern state blocks. Here is an excellent article I'm mostly done with, but haven't seen linked here yet. Sorry if it has been and I missed it. We all are obsessed with winning. But this article brings up an excellent topic about healing.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/08/opinion/biden-trump-humiliation.html

I shit on Thomas Friedman as much as anyone, but I agree with him here. Democrats began to erode in the mid 90's with old industrial states  when the Clinton's pivoted the party towards the winners of the new economy. But Democrats were largely able to get away with ignoring the pain and humiliation of working class people who felt their status and security in terminal decline until Trump pivoted the GOP towards populism. What makes Minnesota different is diversity and economic growth (which go hand in hand).
So now the Democrats are using Joe Biden to fight a late rear guard action with whats left of the old midwest labor coalition while they try to drag Texas (and Ga) into the coalition with the other winners. That may be enough this cycle because Trump is an incompetent buffoon who alienates decent people, but the massive institutionalized failure of the Texas Democratic party is a huge problem. 

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One of Trump’s bigger weaknesses is he doesn’t have any big ideas for his supporters to rally around like he did in 2016. He’s completely paralyzed on policy but the Qanon movement seems to be filling that void.  

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5 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

My worry re: polls & Trump voters is that no one will admit they voted for him. It is like a deep dark secret they won't own up to.

I think Trump voters are nervous about the shit they will rightfully get for putting this dipshit into office and never will admit they will fucking do it again in the upcoming election.

are there really that many of those people at this point or is this yet another boogieman? 

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Biden is running 5-8 points ahead of the progressive Dem candidate (Eastman) in NE-2.  Yes, there is scant polling to confirm that, but I think most people would agree that Biden should do better against Trump, than Eastman (female progressive with a background in non-profits) will do against Bacon (former air force general, who campaigns towards the middle, while voting in line with GOP). Bacon knows this as well, which is why he is going everything he can to avoid saying Trump's name. Don Jr. stopped by yesterday to stump for Trump, and Bacon didn't say shit on any of his social media platforms about it. The Eastman/Bacon race was within 2 points at the midterm, which was a surprise, and that was before a pandemic and unemployment spike.  It's a coin flip now.  Prior to the '18 midterm, CQR had Bacon at +4 and +7.  Same pollsters currently have Eastman at +1.  Both parties have had this race on their top 10 list for over a year.  
As far as I can tell, neither Biden nor Trump have any appreciable ground force in the district.  Biden is basically running his campaign through the Nebraska Democratic Party, in coordination with the Eastman campaign.  I assume Trump's approach is similar.  For my relatively Democratic area, I would say that Eastman signs outnumber Bacon signs 2:1, and Biden signs outnumber Trump signs 10:1.  I can think of only five Trump signs I've seen on my walks, which is probably about a 3 mile radius.  I see that as more of a sign of lack of voter engagement from the Trump campaign, rather than lack of voter interest, but who knows. My neighborhood is not a suburb, but is mainly white, educated, upper middle class, so a similar stereotype.  
It's not just an "unreliable shot in the dark" that Biden is favored in NE-2.  But obviously it's not a lock.  Lean blue makes sense.  
And speaking of outside money pouring into the race, if anyone wants to help my girl Eastman, and Biden by extension, here's a link to throw money at. 


"Biden is running ahead. No, that isn't supported by polling. There are lots of signs for Democrats in my Democratic neighborhood."

Well, god damnit, I'm sold.

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mpu


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