Jump to content
StassneyHorn

Flipping the Texas State House 2020: 17<10

Recommended Posts

Thanks for starting this. I’m sure it will die down until we get closer to the election, but let’s try and keep it bumped every once in a while. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Some Republicans, however, acknowledge the party faces a genuine threat in longtime conservative bastions like Texas.

“The switch was flipped on in the November 2018 midterm elections. It was, 'Oh boy, this is real, we better get our act together,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas. “But I’m also not sure the party has figured it out.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/07/06/democrats-trump-rout-redistricting-349053

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

“The switch was flipped on in the November 2018 midterm elections. It was, 'Oh boy, this is real, we better get our act together,” said Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas. “But I’m also not sure the party has figured it out.”

Wonder what his playbook says on how to stop catering and enabling bigots (or worse). 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

HD 64 is mine. 5700 votes is a lot to make up. It's likely to be a better turn out, but with the virus can we be sure of that? 

I'm going to fucking be there and Angela Brewer will get some dollars from me, but she's got a hill to climb. Stucky is not the most objectionable. It's going to take a strong turnout and an overwhelming desire to punish Rs no matter what office to get some of these.

There's your counter to the sunshine, a nice gray cloud. I didn't think Beckley was going to win in 2018 in HD 65 either so what do I know?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 7/6/2020 at 9:22 AM, YChang said:

Wonder what his playbook says on how to stop catering and enabling bigots (or worse). 

The short version of the GOP strategist long-term nightmare: can't win with 'em, can't win without 'em.

Idiocy, racism, and hatred are the foundation of the GOP base.  They can't jettison them -- without them, they have no base.  But if they keep them, they can't expand beyond their base (which, while it will still get them a majority in some locations, that number of locations is ever-shrinking).  Knowing those two facts, what is the only path for the GOP to hold onto power?

That's right -- vote suppression, voter fraud, and any other dirty fucking trick they can think of.  They've lost on ideas, they've lost on talent.  So now, their only path forward is to just destroy the Republic.  If they can't have it, nobody can.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

HD 138 (west houston) would seem to be strongly in play for the Dems. They only lost to a long term incumbent last election by 47 votes. He's retiring so the race would seem to up for grabs.

In the March primary for this seat, there were 9300 Dems voters and 9100 GOP voters. Obviously primary voter count has many factors but this district is about as evenly split as possible. About 1/3 white, and 1/2 Hispanic.

Edited by Nice Guy Eddie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lorenzo Sanchez won his runoff yesterday, but was down to just $3k. The incumbent Leach has 400k. This is Plano area.

Leach only won by 2.27% in 2018. His challenger only had $46,800 in that election.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Lorenzo Sanchez won the runoff but was severely depleted of money. He could use help if you got it.


Don’t wait for it to be 30 or 60 days out, donate today. Name recognition does not occur the last week or two before an election, it starts before. You heard of Beto and MJ Hegar months out, do the same with these candidates. They have a much larger say in your everyday life in TX and a bigger upballot effect than donating at a federal level.

This is a shameless plea to donate if you are able to.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020

 

17<10_Map_static_2020-final.jpg
 

Edited by StassneyHorn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

Lorenzo Sanchez won the runoff but was severely depleted of money. He could use help if you got it.


Don’t wait for it to be 30 or 60 days out, donate today. Name recognition does not occur the last week or two before an election, it starts before. You heard of Beto and MJ Hegar months out, do the same with these candidates. They have a much larger say in your everyday life in TX and a bigger upballot effect than donating at a federal level.

This is a shameless plea to donate if you are able to.

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/bluewavetx2020

 

17<10_Map_static_2020-final.jpg
 

Done

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Also, if you got questions about the map, post them. It’s mostly Houston and the Metroplex for pickup spots.
if you want to drink some kool aid, here ya go. They forecasted 11 flipped seats last year and got 12. They’re now saying 17.
https://capitolinside.com/watch2020-housegen-aug3.html
Lol jfc. Nine seats is the worst case scenario, a vaccine before the election is more likely than the GOP retaining the House. That's not kool aid, that's straight trolling.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

Also, if you got questions about the map, post them.

Elizabeth Beck looks kinda hot.  Is she hot?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Elizabeth Beck looks kinda hot.  Is she hot?

First 15 seconds. I will always deliver, 9.95 tho

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, gmr548 said:
3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:
Also, if you got questions about the map, post them. It’s mostly Houston and the Metroplex for pickup spots.
if you want to drink some kool aid, here ya go. They forecasted 11 flipped seats last year and got 12. They’re now saying 17.
https://capitolinside.com/watch2020-housegen-aug3.html

Lol jfc. Nine seats is the worst case scenario, a vaccine before the election is more likely than the GOP retaining the House. That's not kool aid, that's straight trolling.

Making sure I’m reading this right. You think it’s definitely flipping with 9+, but not 17 (crazy high, the actual number of targeted seats from the thread)?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

Elizabeth Beck looks kinda hot.  Is she hot?

spacer.png 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just sent some dollars to Angela Brewer again. 

Not hot. Don't care. I don't give a damn if she's uglier than a mud fence. Can she do a good job? Is she in possession of something resembling a clue?

And the most important question, can she win?

Shrug. I don't know, but it's a better chance than we've had. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Guess I sent a dollar to every candidate. Whoops and yay?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm voting straight dems for at least 3 cycles so they got my vote already

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Whoops AND yay. There should be a customize amount link on the mobile link where you can split your amount for any contribution. 2 dollars is enough to have a voter registration mailer sent to an individual that has been identified through moving data in a district, so yes 1 dollar does make a difference 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Making sure I’m reading this right. You think it’s definitely flipping with 9+, but not 17 (crazy high, the actual number of targeted seats from the thread)?
No, those are direct quotes from that article. They called nine flips the worst case scenario and said a vaccine before November is more likely than the GOP retaining the house.

I have no idea what's going to happen, as data on these races is extremely limited. I do know that flipping the house with nine pickups is not the worst case scenario - that'd be a monumental achievement. Those statements go beyond bold predictions into straight fan fiction territory.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Elusive state house polling has been made available for HD108. Cattanach released her internal polling showing up 48-43. This was a seat thought of as one of the most very likely to flip, she lost by 220 votes last time. Seems like the bottom fell out for Trump there as well, Biden up 59-36 if it’s to be believed.
 

https://static.texastribune.org/media/files/d894da14c5fd393dcb3c0d44ffc9582b/hd108poll.pdf

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

More State House polling, albeit an internal. HD112, Brandy Chambers up two points, 48-46 over the incumbent Chen. Crazy spread from 2016 to now. HRC carried by one point, 2 years later Beto carried by 9, now Biden shows a 21 point lead.

TX_HD_112_Brandy_Chambers_interested_par

Reinforces my opinion that Texas was not a true 9 point difference in 2016 and HRC was just that detested outside the coasts. 20 point differential between HRC and Biden in 4 years.

Edited by StassneyHorn

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

i've been surveyed twice this week, once by text and once phone, in HD 134.  text seemed to be trying out ads for ann johnson, phone seemed to be trying out ads for sarah davis.  although the phone poll was probably about the two wacky consumer knowledge questions tossed in so that both my and the interviewer thought it was a political poll but it was actually about toothpaste. double blind motherfucker!

Edited by elfenix

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites



Reinforces my opinion that Texas was not a true 9 point difference in 2016 and HRC was just that detested outside the coasts. 20 point differential between HRC and Biden in 4 years.


Sure it was. Clinton ran ahead of the only other statewide Democrat and Trump ran behind the other statewide Republican.

The range of possible outcomes moves slighly leftward each cycle. Trump just helped Democrats skip a decade plus worth of demographic shifts and building organization/enthusiasm by realigning educated white voters, especially women, once he took office.

We saw the possible outcomes ranged from R+2 to R+ whatever eleventy billion number Abbott won by in 2018. That looks to have shifted to even or even D+ 1-2 on the left end of the range this go 'round.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not really sure what a gop state rep candidate can really do except appeal to trump supporters publicly but privately convince never trumpeters to vote for them. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Are any of you data guys/GIS guys able to make a map of Texas State Senate District 30 with the State House districts that overlap? I saw a tweet from Scott Braddock that says with Pat Fallon taking over TX-04, if a current Republican State House rep runs from that map for his State Senate seat, it could be open an opportunity to take over one of the 9 needed house seats just to take over a safe State Senate seat.

I would think 64,66,67, and 112 would overlap but I’ve been drinking and can’t find street level deets.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

 

Are any of you data guys/GIS guys able to make a map of Texas State Senate District 30 with the State House districts that overlap? I saw a tweet from Scott Braddock that says with Pat Fallon taking over TX-04, if a current Republican State House rep runs from that map for his State Senate seat, it could be open an opportunity to take over one of the 9 needed house seats just to take over a safe State Senate seat.

I would think 64,66,67, and 112 would overlap but I’ve been drinking and can’t find street level deets.

 

64, mostly yes with the liberal center of Denton included. 66, 67, and 112 no.

 

Sorry for shitty photo of monitor presentation, just pulled into Google Earth real quick.

 

Edit: I said mostly yes but actually looking at it, most of the population of 64 is along the 35 corridor, a lot of which is not included. So some overlap, probably like half tops.

 

24cc7c582b43b191771941e45f2395f4.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

More state house polling, HD 126, area between Klein and Jersey Village in Northwest Houston. Democratic candidate,   Natali Hurtado down 47-43, Joe Biden down 1 in an area that went +10 for Trump

image.thumb.jpeg.79c6d43a1cb4d6d64cd6e73f83428c55.jpeg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/8/2020 at 6:17 PM, elfenix said:

i've been surveyed twice this week, once by text and once phone, in HD 134.  text seemed to be trying out ads for ann johnson, phone seemed to be trying out ads for sarah davis.  although the phone poll was probably about the two wacky consumer knowledge questions tossed in so that both my and the interviewer thought it was a political poll but it was actually about toothpaste. double blind motherfucker!

sounds like it was these guys. Congrats on being more important than other posters

HD134 polling Ann Johnson 44% (D) Sarah Davis 42 (R-Inc)

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Biden is flirting with winning Klein/Jersey Village, he might fuck around and win the the state. And similarly, if Denocrats are actually only down four there, they could flip the house. That suburban belt north of Houston from Cypress to The Woodlands is as trump aggy is it gets in any major metro area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

If Biden is flirting with winning Klein/Jersey Village, he might fuck around and win the the state. And similarly, if Denocrats are actually only down four there, they could flip the house. That suburban belt north of Houston from Cypress to The Woodlands is as trump aggy is it gets in any major metro area.

made me curious. the 2016 and 2018 precinct maps are still available. you can see margins really tightening from 2016 to 2018 in that area. if it does that movement again that would be great.  still though, it seems like biden has to win those areas outright instead of be close.  anything urban and within commute time of downtown has to be won to give him a statewide chance.

http://swamplot.com/where-trump-lost-harris-county-mapped/2016-11-14/

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/default/item/2018-Texas-midterm-elections-Harris-County-90400.php

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I’m not ready to start believing a flip is possible. But I’m getting there. Fuck what would be amazing. Granted Patrick will still fuck up anything he can, but redraw those fucking districts motherfucker. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not ready to start believing a flip is possible. But I’m getting there. Fuck what would be amazing. Granted Patrick will still fuck up anything he can, but redraw those fucking districts motherfucker. 

I figure if they lose their majority in the house, he and Hot Wheels will call a lame duck special session and try to ram through all kinds of egregious shit to reduce the power of the house. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I figure if they lose their majority in the house, he and Hot Wheels will call a lame duck special session and try to ram through all kinds of egregious shit to reduce the power of the house. 

Can you or anyone else provide an example of what kind of things that would include, and what that would look like and require to be made into law?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/9/2020 at 10:34 PM, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I’m not really sure what a gop state rep candidate can really do except appeal to trump supporters publicly but privately convince never trumpeters to vote for them. 

 

3 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I’m not ready to start believing a flip is possible. But I’m getting there. Fuck what would be amazing. Granted Patrick will still fuck up anything he can, but redraw those fucking districts motherfucker. 

Sydney has it right Eddie.  Census year, redistricting.   

 

Just as importantly we need to flip the Courts too!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

TEXAS — Shelley Luther, the Dallas salon owner who was jailed for opening her business in defiance of a COVID-19 order, on Saturday declared she intends to run for the Texas Senate.

What You Need To Know

Dallas salon owner Shelley Luther announces she intends to run for Texas Senate seat

 

Luther briefly jailed earlier in 2020 for violating virus shutdown order

 

Governor amended order, leading to her being freed early 

 

Will likely run when special election announced 

The Denton County resident was speaking at a rally when she made the announcement. The Texas Tribune reported Luther has been considering running for the seat currently occupied by Sen. Pat Fallon, R-Prosper.

Fallon has been picked to replace U.S. Rep John Ratcliffe, R-Heath, in Congress now that Ratcliffe is the director of national intelligence. While there is a Democratic nominee for Ratcliffe’s seat, Fallon is likely to win in the red district.

A special election for Texas Senate District 30 will be announced when Fallon vacates the seat.

Luther made headlines when on April 28 she opened her salon despite an order issued by Gov. Greg Abbott, prompting a district judge to order a temporary restraining order against her business.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

I figure if they lose their majority in the house, he and Hot Wheels will call a lame duck special session and try to ram through all kinds of egregious shit to reduce the power of the house. 

Doubt they could get away with it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

mpu


Football ... Basketball ... Baseball ... Other Sports ... Recruiting ... Gambling ... Movies & TV ... Music ... Hobbies ... Lulz ... Food & Travel ... Daily Texan ... Help ... For Sale ... Politics ... Board Discussion
×
×
  • Create New...