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Hey Oil Barons.......

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4 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

OXY is fucked. I wonder if it is conceivable for them to go private. Reason I’m asked is because I’d actually heard exactly that yesterday from a banker friend of mine - that they’re looking to do just that. 

It is if Warren Buffett buys them for nothing 

Edited by Trey3216

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3 hours ago, Okie State said:

I have family who worked for Anadarko and now Oxy. Haven't talked to them in a while, but can't imagine they're feeling great about things right now.

anadarko employees got a 4.9% pay reduction. Oxy employees got 30%, so the story goes 

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1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

Damn...one of my best friends switched jobs to go over to a pretty senior position at Oxy a bit over a year ago. Seemed like a good gig until.... well, now. Damn.

damn that sucks 

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anadarko employees got a 4.9% pay reduction. Oxy employees got 30%, so the story goes 
Yeah the COC is protecting them for now. I think that runs out eventually and then I'd expect it to be a bloodbath.

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11 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I keep wondering how Anadarko employees landed such a sweetheart CoC deal to begin with?  No other company I know of has anything close at all, company changes hands... tough shit.

Agree, but that's what happens when you are begging the other company to accept your deal and throwing more money at them. 

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A question for upstream oil and gas commercial bankers - How long will the banks let a small private company with a now way underwater loan go before dropping the hammer and cleaning the mess up?  I'm thinking of small borrowers, specifically one I'm familar with who had something like an all-PDP PV(10%)  (no PDNP or PUD's) of $15MM at ~$50/bo , now much less at $25/bo, and always is fully drawn with only $50,000/month of principal reductions in place.

Edited by Heisenberg

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I'm not sure a company like that can cover interest nevermind principal. The banks cant really do much. They don't want to takeover the assets. They will kick the can and that's about it.

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36 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

A question for upstream oil and gas commercial bankers - How long will the banks let a small private company with a now way underwater loan go before dropping the hammer and cleaning the mess up?  I'm thinking of small borrowers, specifically one I'm familar with who had something like an all-PDP PV(10%)  (no PDNP or PUD's) of $15MM at ~$50/bo , now much less at $25/bo, and always is fully drawn with only $50,000/month of principal reductions in place.

Is this a Dallas company with CBP assets?

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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a letter to senators Wednesday Democrats had eliminated from the legislation a, “$3 billion bailout for big oil.”


Small oil can take that $3B. 

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40 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

US no longer filling up the SPR. Did our industry stop paying lobbyist, what the fuck? 

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/crude-purchase-funding-stimulus-3-trillion-us-15156275.php

I would bet through all the emergency declarations that Trump can still do it by executive order through the DOE.  The announcement last week didn't have any legislative component.

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11 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

anadarko employees got a 4.9% pay reduction. Oxy employees got 30%, so the story goes 

This is what I’m hearing. Everyone is getting fucked. And yet, they were up 22% for a spell today. 

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1 hour ago, Archer said:

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said in a letter to senators Wednesday Democrats had eliminated from the legislation a, “$3 billion bailout for big oil.”


Small oil can take that $3B. 

Chuck Schumer can go fuck himself. I’ve said that many times in my life. 

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46 minutes ago, fattyflattie said:

This is what I’m hearing. Everyone is getting fucked. And yet, they were up 22% for a spell today. 

Down is up in energy today. I seem to remember something like this happening in 2016 and it ended in a bloodbath.

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On 3/25/2020 at 12:12 PM, TonyTexas said:

No funding in the stimulus package for the purchase of oil for the SOR. 

 

2 hours ago, Lagunamadre said:

US no longer filling up the SPR. Did our industry stop paying lobbyist, what the fuck? 

 

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/energy/article/crude-purchase-funding-stimulus-3-trillion-us-15156275.php

US ENERGY DEPARTMENT HAS FUNDS FOR POTENTIAL PURCHASE OF OIL FOR STRATEGIC PETROLEUM RESERVE, WORKING WITH CONGRESS ON DETAILS

 

that just came across my news tape.  also we're pressuring the saudis to leave OPEC lol.

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15 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

‘21

A lot. I talked to some guys yesterday in the Permian who’s decision to DUC 4 recently drilled Lea County wells or complete will be based on whether or not we’re at $30/bbl in a month. 

Between now and ‘21, we will have pockets of $40-$50 oil where people will complete. 

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2 minutes ago, T’Boo Ted Marshall said:

‘21

Depends on the area. We would model 100% of our DUCs in the Permian, Bakken and EF getting completed by end of 21', we've pushed back timing quite a bit though. I could see Scoop/Stack and fringier parts of the EF being chalked up as dry holes. 

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3 minutes ago, Lagunamadre said:

Depends on the area. We would model 100% of our DUCs in the Permian, Bakken and EF getting completed by end of 21', we've pushed back timing quite a bit though. I could see Scoop/Stack and fringier parts of the EF being chalked up as dry holes. 

I chalked your fringy mom up as a dry hole, but putting my pipe down hole, perforating her stacked-pay zones, she produced. Was a gusher. 

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15 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I chalked your fringy mom up as a dry hole, but putting my pipe down hole, perforating her stacked-pay zones, she produced. Was a gusher. 

It’s piss 

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24 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

I chalked your fringy mom up as a dry hole, but putting my pipe down hole, perforating her stacked-pay zones, she produced. Was a gusher. 

That's sour gas dude, hope you were wearing a gas mask. 

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11 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Is this a Dallas company with CBP assets?

No, Houston private with lots of little interests, including ORRI's, maybe 500 properties in that PDP PV(10%) of $15MM at $50/BO.  Properties are mostly West Texas and Delaware New Mexico with other interests in E. Texas, NW Louisiana, OK, CO, WY, ND.

I'm just wondering how long before the bank moves on the collateral at $20-25/BO.

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14 minutes ago, Heisenberg said:

No, Houston private with lots of little interests, including ORRI's, maybe 500 properties in that PDP PV(10%) of $15MM at $50/BO.  Properties are mostly West Texas and Delaware New Mexico with other interests in E. Texas, NW Louisiana, OK, CO, WY, ND.

I'm just wondering how long before the bank moves on the collateral at $20-25/BO.

Sounds like a perfect shit cocktail. How do you have that disparate spread with a PV10 of only $15MM at $50?  That’s the kind of marginal stuff that when you endure a 50% drop, it doesn’t drop the PV10 to $7.5MM. It drops it to $2.5MM and it’s not cash flowing today. 

Better have hedges. I can’t believe someone would loan money on that. 

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A friend at a mid-sized public E&P said they are forecasting $13/BBL field price for next month.

This storage situation is going to be a real mess.

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2 hours ago, BTW said:

A friend at a mid-sized public E&P said they are forecasting $13/BBL field price for next month.

This storage situation is going to be a real mess.

Yep. I’m about to hedge the entirety of ‘20 in swaps. The back part of the curve is up. Everyone I talk to is talking single digits for April/May. I suspect we rebound fast from there, but, I’m nervous. 

Ive also heard conflicting things: 1) Saudis are employing American bankers and engineering consultants. They know they didn’t effectively do the job in ‘15-‘16. They have hired these people with express intent of crushing our world. 2) Saudis likely cannot increase production 2-3 mmbbl/d, given a) Aramco announced a huge capex cut and b) their storage outside of bbls promised to China is only 100 mmbbls. 

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5 hours ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Yep. I’m about to hedge the entirety of ‘20 in swaps. The back part of the curve is up. Everyone I talk to is talking single digits for April/May. I suspect we rebound fast from there, but, I’m nervous. 

Ive also heard conflicting things: 1) Saudis are employing American bankers and engineering consultants. They know they didn’t effectively do the job in ‘15-‘16. They have hired these people with express intent of crushing our world. 2) Saudis likely cannot increase production 2-3 mmbbl/d, given a) Aramco announced a huge capex cut and b) their storage outside of bbls promised to China is only 100 mmbbls. 

Fuck those goatherds and that Russian KGB thug.

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9 minutes ago, Dr. Beeper said:

Somebody’s pissed about the amount of his Continental royalty checks. 

Yep, that too. But that isn’t an important reason - the thought that those turds are screwing the hardworking people in our oil patch really pisses me off. Not to mention causing problems for state revenues.

edited to add: we  do not depend on our royalty checks at all - we are comfortable enough without them. Some relatives however do need the extra cash.

Edited by Armybrat

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